News of the Morning
by Matthew on Nov 13, 2008 1:16 PM PST
in Seattle Mariners News, Regular
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PrintItem One: Cliff Lee wins the AL Cy Young.
Cliff Lee is certainly deserving, though perhaps a touch less than Roy Halladay given their slate of batters faced. The voters, predictably, didn't see it that way, giving Lee the edge 24-4 in first place votes. Fine, whatever. Here's the inexcusable part though, three voters didn't even put Roy Halladay on their ballot! Uncredible.
Item Two: Marlins keep dumping payroll.
The Marlins traded arbitration-eligible Kevin Gregg to the Cubs for minor-leaguer Jose Ceda. Gregg is a decent enough relief pitcher, offering up some durability and strikeouts with a mediocre walk rate and a so-so groundball ratio. Ceda is a 21-year-old righty who has split time in the rotation and bullpen and made it up to AA last year in relief.
Item Three: Fucking Kenny Williams!
Nick Swisher and Kanekoa Texeira are headed to the Yankees in exchange for Jeff Marquez, Jhonny Nunez and ***********. This is selling low on Nick Swisher who has three years and 22 million left on his contract with a 2012 option at an additional 9.25M. He had a terrible season but it was almost entirely due to his incredibly bad .247 BABIP. His line drive rate was 19.3%, about the same as in previous years and his core numbers show little change from 2006-7. He saw over 4.5 pitches per PA.
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Re: Swisher
Also likely means no Giambi and no Teixeira for the Yanks, who are now almost certain to blow their wad and then some on CC Sabathia and another SP.
That whole piece is god awful
Jason Stark should be ashamed of himself
Fucking hell, I could write something better than that.
Fuentes? Really?
You don’t think that Furcal or Hudson would be exactly what the Cardinals need?
or Griffey?
Jesus Christ what a lazy son of a gun
by JI on Nov 13, 2008 1:26 PM PST up reply actions
Swisher isn't very good
At best, he’s a ~2 win player, and if they play him at first he’s closer to 1.
How do you figure?
His bat strikes me as worth about 4 wins.
How on earth did you end up with 4 wins?
by Jeff Sullivan on Nov 13, 2008 1:31 PM PST up reply actions
Assuming his BABIP rebounding gets him back to the ~20 bRAA he had in 06 and 07
That’s 2 wins over average.
Whoops, I made a mistake
At best, he’s a ~3 win player, and if they play him at first it’s closer to 2. Marcel projects worse.
Decent player, but I like Betemit too.
by Jeff Sullivan on Nov 13, 2008 1:41 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah, that jives more with what I'm thinking.
But 2-3 wins for roughly 7.5M a year, with switch hitting, defensive flexibility and some upside?
Also, fuck Wilson Betemit.
How are you calculating your BABIP on StatCorner?
It’s not jiving with B-R.
by Jeff Sullivan on Nov 13, 2008 1:44 PM PST up reply actions
zoinks!
Didn’t change over the homerun negation when I started tracking homerun types.
Fixed now.
If you regress Swisher back up to a normal BABIP
you still come out with a wOBA* in the .330-.340 range. Which is down significantly from before. I don’t think you can just assume the he reverts to what he was in 06-07.
by Jeff Sullivan on Nov 13, 2008 1:51 PM PST up reply actions
No, I wouldn't
That’s why I agree it’s more like a 3-win bat.
If you project him as a, I dunno, .360 wOBA* player
he’s 2 wins as an average cOF and ~1.5 wins as an average 1B. I can’t really get a read on his defense but average seems about right.
by Jeff Sullivan on Nov 13, 2008 2:03 PM PST up reply actions
wins above average?
.360 wOBA seems about 10-15 RAA
The weighted lgwOBA average over Swisher's last four years is .342 so I'm going with that
(.360 – .342) / 1.15 * 700 = +11 runs over a full season.
+11 runs = + 1 win, – 0.75 (position, cOF), + 2 (RL), * .85 or so = ~2 WAR as an average defensive outfielder.
by Jeff Sullivan on Nov 13, 2008 2:10 PM PST up reply actions
Knowing what he's actually like defensively would help
but the fact that he never steals or triples tells me that he’s not the most fleet-of-foot fellow in the league.
by Jeff Sullivan on Nov 13, 2008 2:14 PM PST up reply actions
Plays CF though
so I think average is a decent guess for him in cOF. Probably a little above at 1B.
Griffey played CF too
Swisher’s CF ratings are bad.
by Jeff Sullivan on Nov 13, 2008 2:17 PM PST up reply actions
This is what my guess has always been.
He doesn’t look right in center, but he appears to be average-ish at the corners, if not slightly above.
With 2.5 as the replacement piece and +.25 to .5 in a corner spot, I see him more like 3 WAR
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
After talking it over with Dave a few days ago I don't like the 2.5 replacement level idea
by Jeff Sullivan on Nov 13, 2008 2:18 PM PST up reply actions
Why not?
Was it a public discussion you can point me to?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
I'm going to violate my own ethical standards and assume that Dave doesn't mind me sharing this:
I’ve always used 2.0, and I think it fits reality a bit better. If we say a replacement level team would win 30% of their games, or a 49-113 record, then WAR would be -32 WAA. Using a 60/40 split, we’d give -19 WAA to the position players and -13 WAA to the pitchers.
Nine position players, assumed to get 600 PA, at -2.0 WAA, equals -18 WAA. The missing win could then be attributed to the bench to get us to -19 WAA.
Nine position players, assumed to get 600 PA, at -2.25 WAA, equals -20.25 WAA. Even without the bench, we’re already a win too high.
by Jeff Sullivan on Nov 13, 2008 2:21 PM PST up reply actions
There's also the difference in AL/NL pitching talent to consider
When I use 2.5, I’m really using 2.25, but bumping AL hitters up to 2.5 and NL hitters down to 2.0.
So if you think overall replacement level is 2.0, then maybe use 2.25 and 1.75 for AL/NL? If you do that, we’re only off by .25 wins. If not, we’re off by half a win.
Gotta run now, but I’ll try to find the math arguing for 2.25 (2.5/2.0) later.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Neither of us is convinced that the AL is really that much better than the NL anymore
by Jeff Sullivan on Nov 13, 2008 2:27 PM PST up reply actions
Really?
What’s changed over the past five years? How do you explain the consistent drubbing in interleague games?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
I think five years happened
Some of the NL teams have really improved and we have seen some great hitters and pitchers immerge.
by Edgar for Pres on Nov 14, 2008 8:52 AM PST up reply actions
Sean Smith's defensive projections have him at +5 runs in corner OF
which seems about right. He’s slow, but he’s otherwise a very good defensive OF.
In fact, if I’m not misremembering, THT might have rated him the “best slow OF in baseball” around the beginning of 2007.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
The Yankees have the flexibility to overpay for a warm body
If Swisher walks a hundred times and hits 25 homers, and gives them a bunch of defensive flexibility I have a hard time of seeing the downside.
by JI on Nov 13, 2008 1:29 PM PST up reply actions
Is he really that bad in a corner?
I never looked it up but always thought of him as average-ish.
It's not his defense
it’s that he’s a 1B/corner OF without a special bat.
by Jeff Sullivan on Nov 13, 2008 1:32 PM PST up reply actions
Excluding last year, he's put up pretty good wOBA numbers
Considering his age, contract, and OBP skills, I’d say he’s pretty valuable. Not a superstar or anything, but 25 or 30 homers and a high OBP for a few million dollars is awesome.
They can move him around
He can play any of the outfield spots plus 1B. I’m guessing what value he has also includes his modularity.
Perhaps the Yankees just wanted
someone else who would happily attend Jeter/Rodriguez/Madonna? sleepovers
I will accept any draft combination of Crabtree, Andre Smith, Stafford, and Mays. Hear that Ruskell? Time to start spreading vicious rumors about all 4 so they fall.
Why the hell would the Yankees want an OF/1B/DH?
Even assuming Giambi and Abreu are gone, they have, for five spots:
Damon
Matsui
Nady
Gardner/Melky
Swisher
And the possibility that Posada can’t catch
Plus, this either removes them from the Teixeira’s sweepstakes or else gives them yet another extra guy at a no-skill position.
If I were them I’d forget about Melky/Gardner, play an outfield of Swisher/Damon/Nady, DH Matsui, sign Tex for 1B, and pray Posada can catch.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Health insurance?
He’s a good value and can hold his own in the outfield (at least in a corner). Nady’s due for some massive regression, and I wouldn’t count on Damon or Matsui for a full year.
Glut or not, I’d have a hard time saying no thanks when the Sox are selling low on a good player.
I agree it's always a good idea to make trades that are heavily in your favor.
And the Yankees can definitely find a spot for him. They just already had a space crunch.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
but
Melky has some upsides due to age but was really bad this year
Gardner might be ok but that’s he’s upside
If Swisher isn’t a special bat, than Nady’s a very mediocare bat outside of this year’s pirate version
Damon’s career wise has been up and down, he’s actually been a lot better than his career average in his Yankee time, but he’s on his last year anyway.
they have crunch in 09, but only one of those player is truely good (Damon) and he’s on his last year.
For some reason I thought Nady was a FA.
They can always deal Nady.
If I were them I’d work hard on fixing the defense. Since we know Jeter isn’t going anywhere get a real CFer, and a rangy guy to play left (Randy Winn)
by JI on Nov 13, 2008 2:00 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah I'd be surprised to find Melky playing in the bronx next year
he’s a pretty unexceptional player, and the Yanks seem to be in constant need of relief help. My guess is he goes away for a B prospect and a relief pitcher, and your suggestion of Swisher/Damon/Nady OF is what we see out there next year.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Nov 13, 2008 2:06 PM PST up reply actions
the Yankee bullpen
was really good in 08.
Melky was a mega dissapointment in 08, but for a lot of reasons I still think he’s a better bet than Brett Gardner, at least he can actually hit the ball out of the park once in a blue moon (or many times in a month, then never again for the rest of the year as in this year’s case lol)
So Halladay and Lee stack up pretty evenly against one another except for the wins department,
which is baloney. But I really think that Baker nailed it on this one, voting for Halladay due to an enormous imbalance in strength of opposition. Halladay went up against the Yankees, Sox, and Rays something like 16 times. He got robbed.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Nov 13, 2008 2:09 PM PST reply actions
...he also threw more innings and had 5 more complete games
But I think “robbed” is a bit much
by JI on Nov 13, 2008 2:11 PM PST up reply actions
It is my understanding that anybody who loses a close race got robbed
by Jeff Sullivan on Nov 13, 2008 2:13 PM PST up reply actions
Umm, I guess in some circles that may be okay.
However, if you had any Jewish friends I bet you may well be asked to stop it.
I like to insult gay friends with comments like this.
That is something a straight man would do.
by Sec 108 on Nov 14, 2008 11:10 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Aww man, we cannot use jweed anymore?
What a gyp.
Jweed is in fact totally acceptable.
Also, I am not an authority on what you are not or are allowed to call people. I am merely stating what I have found to incur shots to my nuts in the past therefore changing my current behavior.
We cannot be niggardly with our racist remarks.
We must spread them to all people and cultures.
I can't be anything else.
I tried once, didn’t work out.
I take it on a case by case basis
The difference is so slight you can’t really fault anyone for choosing Lee.
by JI on Nov 13, 2008 2:42 PM PST up reply actions
FWIW, Sean Smith's defensive projections (with regression) have Swisher as +5 runs in a corner spot and -3 runs in CF.
Not including arm.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Remember when the White Sox used a rotation of Swisher and Griffey in CF?
I’d say they are a shining beacon of logic and reason.
by JI on Nov 13, 2008 2:51 PM PST up reply actions
they have
ozzie Guillen as their manager and AJ Pierzynsky as their catcher, forget about logic , how about sanity?
Kanekoa Texeira sounds like a name a baseball video game would assign to a prospect.
J.K.L.
by Aaron Campeau on Nov 13, 2008 2:54 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
That's a good one.
Other favorites are Ichiro Hernandez, Hideki Jones and Arturo Suzuki.
Yorkis Cyr is a different class of weird name combo, but still quite random.
J.K.L.
by Aaron Campeau on Nov 13, 2008 3:05 PM PST up reply actions
Yorkis Cyr was a quality player IIRC
Determined, Jonesing Commentor | Proud proprietor of Washingtonhighways.org
He was generally a solid 1B option.
Not anything special, but a TTO, Branyan-esque type guy. I thought it was hilarious that he was always in the far system of the team you were controlling in dynasty mode.
J.K.L.
by Aaron Campeau on Nov 13, 2008 3:34 PM PST up reply actions
and have him not call the next day? No thanks.
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
no, that's only if you make love to him
by Bearskin Rugburn on Nov 13, 2008 4:08 PM PST up reply actions
But they didn't make love, they fucked, OK?
Stop making such a big deal out of it
by seattlebruin on Nov 13, 2008 4:50 PM PST up reply actions
Ack I was going for a Zack & Miri reference
guess not enough people saw it yet
by seattlebruin on Nov 13, 2008 10:18 PM PST up reply actions
Jhonny?
There is more than one person on Earth who spells it that way?
the Yankees
have two guys in their system named “Melky” should sum up a lot
It's a shame Kerry wood will probably demand stupid money
Because seeing him in a Cardinals uniform would be awesome.
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