I come wearing body armor to ask a question

by grover on Nov 1, 2008 2:00 PM PDT

Hi.

I'm grover, just visiting from AN to ask a question that's probably going to cause a bit of an uproar. Seattle has a new sheriff in town and I'm not even going to pretend to know what his intentions are regarding the Mariners' roster. I am curious to know what Zduriencik (henceforth referred to by me as Mr. Z as it took me three double-checks to spell it right once) has planned for Adrian Beltre. There is a contingent at AN that is interested in pursuing Beltre, either as a trade target or after 2009 should he become a free agent.

My question to Lookout Landing is, what kind of price tag does a 1 year rental of Adrian Beltre carry?

Here's what I think is a plausible scenario. Mr. Z approaches Beltre in the next week or so and asks if his starting 3rd baseman is interested in an extension. Beltre replies that at this time he is going to test the free agent market after the 2009 season. As it seems highly unlikely that the 2009 Mariners are going to contend for the division crown, it makes sense that Mr. Z would investigate what Beltre could bring back in a trade.

What areas/needs would you like to see the Mariners address if they traded Beltre? I'm going to include a poll that contains several options, including holding on to Beltre through 2009. If you are pro-trade, please include a trade list involving Oakland players so we can discuss what would/would not be a realistic trade offer. If the Mariners put Beltre on the block there would be interest from several clubs, so I'm certain the price tag would be fairly significant. At the same time, we're talking about a player with only 1 year remaining on his contract and he refuses to discuss a pre-season (thus, pre-trade) extension and that will temper what the Mariners can expect in a deal.

It is my belief that whatever team Beltre plays for in 2009 will spend the bulk of the season trying to win him over and convince him to sign an extension rather than become a free agent. Whether or not that happens remains to be seen. So let me know what you think and if any of you feel like throwing sharp or heavy objects at me just know that I included that option in the poll.

EDIT. I screwed up and failed to ask an important question. How far are you willing to go to sign Beltre to an extension? If the Mariners were willing to make Adrian the 2nd highest paid 3rd baseman in baseball then that probably guarantees him signing on the dotted line. Short of that, I think it's a crapshoot wether he stays in Seattle or moves on.

Poll

Revised poll! Sorry, the last one came across as vague. What to do with Beltre?

Do not trade Beltre. Spend 2009 trying to convince him Seattle is the place for him. Run the risk of watching him leave for draft picks.

59 votes

Don't trade Beltre. Invest heavily in free agency to improve the team immediately & sign whatever contract offer Boras hands you.

5 votes

Shop Beltre, just don't trade him to an AL West team. There's no need to rub salt in the wound!

8 votes

Shop Beltre and eal him for the best package available.

27 votes

Ban grover for even suggesting that Beltre may one day become a former Mariner!

13 votes

112 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 61 comments

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Comments

If it were up to me, Beltre would stay.

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Nov 1, 2008 2:10 PM PDT 0 recs

OK... but what does that mean?

I’m not going to sit here and argue with you whether or not the Mariners should keep Beltre. He’s a good player and the Mariners need as many good players as they can get. That said, it’s not up to you if Beltre stays… it’s also up to Beltre if he wants to stay. What are you willing to do to make sure Beltre stays? Are you going to offer him an A-Rod like contract? (Maybe a more realistic scenario is you promise to make Beltre the 2nd highest paid 3rd baseman in baseball.)

I apologize if this sounds like I’m picking on you, I’m not. I probably should have asked this question in the original post. I see an edit in my future!

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Nov 1, 2008 2:23 PM PDT up 0 recs

5/75 maybe?

That’s reasonable given that he’s an above average hitter and otherworldly with the glove…that signs him through his age 34 season, and considering last year he had one of his best offensive years (his BABIP was ridiculously low in relation to his LD%) I think it’s a good bet to get at least 3 good years out of that 5 year contract. If he stinks for two years, I still don’t think it’s a bad investment.

If he’s not willing to sign during the season, well, I just hope we can win about 75-80 games next year and convince him we’re on the upswing. I don’t think it’s totally impossible to think Beltre might want to stay if we make some good forward progress next season. If we draft Grant Green and perhaps upgrade LF, DH, and SS this offseason (totally possible) then the M’s may be able to convince him he’ll be able to win a pennant in the next 5 years with the M’s.

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Nov 1, 2008 2:29 PM PDT up 0 recs

Maybe a quick fix is possible

I don’t know one way or the other, to be perfectly honest with you. Can the Mariners invest the capital to make a quick fix possible? I think we’re both agreed that another 100-loss season would probably be counter-productive in convincing Beltre to stay on past 2009.

Let me ask you this, though. What if Mr. Z doesn’t choose to go the quick fix route, what if he decides to slash and burn the roster and do a rebuild? You’d probably have to throw more years or cash at Beltre to keep him around through the construction. Are you willing to up your offer?

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Nov 1, 2008 2:35 PM PDT up 0 recs

Beltre stays

Absolutely.

Free Stephen "Awesome" Strasburg!

by seattlecougar on Nov 1, 2008 2:16 PM PDT 0 recs

Zduriencik may be interested in an extension

but either way I bet Boras tells the M’s not to bother discussing it until Beltre’s contract expires.

by Gomez on Nov 1, 2008 2:20 PM PDT 0 recs

I want him to stay forever

Ryan Rowland-Smith for President

by darmok on Nov 1, 2008 2:22 PM PDT 0 recs

It would be best for everyone if Beltre retired a Mariner.

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Nov 1, 2008 2:29 PM PDT up 0 recs

He'd have to retire at a young age.

by JI on Nov 1, 2008 5:39 PM PDT up 0 recs

Sorry for scrapping the original poll.

I know folks around here want to keep Beltre, I just think there’s a question to how realistic that option is. This new poll better reflects what I was trying to ask.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Nov 1, 2008 2:53 PM PDT 0 recs

Beltre's Value

BTB just posted their 3B values for 2008 and Beltre finished 4th behind Chipper, A-Rod, and David Wright. So if a trade does happen, I would expect a lot in return for Beltre. I would want an extension like everyone else, especially since everyone except us thinks he’s overrated and overpaid.

Best Third Basemen of 2008

by Scrupio on Nov 1, 2008 2:54 PM PDT 0 recs

I would shop Beltre

Can I get a blue chip prospect that has at least AA experience, and appears on the track to play either short stop, center, first base, or be at least a #2 starter? If so, I likely pull the trigger. Those are the positions that we need the most help at, short stop especially, and I’d be happy to give up Beltre in order to make it happen.

If I can’t get that kind of talent for him, I keep him and talk extension. I don’t believe he’s likely to want to stay, but that’s cool, we can always wait until the 2010 draft to cash in.

by katal on Nov 1, 2008 3:14 PM PDT 0 recs

Alright.

How much goodwill does Daric Barton buy?

Or Carlos Gonzales?

Or Trevor Cahill?

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Nov 2, 2008 10:50 AM PST up 0 recs

If Beltre's going to walk, I think you're taking the goodwill bullet no matter what

May as well try to maximize your return.

by Gomez on Nov 2, 2008 3:32 PM PST up 0 recs

I don't know.

I would like to hold on the Beltre but wouldn’t be surprised if he’s traded this offseason. Depends on what direction Zduriencik wants to go.

I’m honestly more interested in how this team is going to be constructed going forward than I am trying to retain individual players. Dave @ USSM wrote up two different plans (Reload Plan and Blow it Up Plan), the latter including a trade that includes Beltre. I’d be fine with either route.

by ThundaPC on Nov 1, 2008 3:14 PM PDT 0 recs

Keep Beltre at all costs

Im now a member of the Church of Beltre. Ill donate 10% of my salary if thats what it takes to keep him here. All joking aside, hopefully the M’s will put together a half way decent season and he would be willing to extend his deal. Beltre has even said himself he doesnt want to go into spring training knowing hes going to lose. Unfortunately I dont see that happening or Scott Boras letting that happen, but then again I dont know anything about Zoinks and Boras’ working relationship.

In a perfect world Beltre would drop Boras and sign an extension for a reasonalble amount and finish his career here making me a VERY happy guy. We dont live in a perfect world though and in all reality I think Beltre is gone after this year if not sooner. I will cry when he leaves and then Ill have to plan a trip to go see him play at his new home. As long as he doesnt sign with the Angels or the Red Sox Ill be okay. I wont hate the guy if he does but Id be bummed.

I agree with Brett, 5/75 is about what he will command, and rightfully so. If not for his production, for pure entertainment value. When he doesnt re-sign with the M’s I can always dream of a Beltre/Jones line up in Baltimore.

If for some odd reason Mr. Beltre reads this…
PLEEEEEAAAAAAASSSSSSEEEEEE RE-SIGN, PLEEEEEEEEEAAAAAASSSSSEEEE!!!

The good thing about having sex with pregnant chicks is that they cant get pregnant.

by RED29 on Nov 1, 2008 4:15 PM PDT 1 recs

Part of what makes Beltre so valuable to the M's is his relatively cheap contract

If you start paying him what he’s worth, he’s no longer underrated and no longer a significant asset.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 2, 2008 1:17 PM PST up 0 recs

You're speaking to a man who carries around a 4 foot tall Beltre head on a stick

by Graham on Nov 2, 2008 2:20 PM PST up 0 recs

Ok, things like that should come with a warning.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 2, 2008 2:42 PM PST up 0 recs

If he's not open to signing an extension, they need to see what kind of value he'll fetch in trade.

It’s absolutely excruciating for me to type that, but it’s true. I think there’s a very good chance that Adrian has his best statistical year as a Mariner next year, and I think that’s going to drive his value up quite a bit. I think the best course of action would be to offer him an extension that slightly exceeds what his value would be on the open market right now (because it’s likely to be less than he’s actually worth) and see if he takes it. If he doesn’t bust out next year, you’re overpaying slightly for a very good player. If he does, you’ve got him for less than it would have taken to resign him in 02010. If he doesn’t sign and you can get better value than the draft picks, I say go for it.

Ow.

J.K.L.

by acblue on Nov 1, 2008 4:39 PM PDT 0 recs

):'<

by NOLAmarinergirl on Nov 1, 2008 9:55 PM PDT up 0 recs

I'm having trouble deciphering this emoticon.

J.K.L.

by acblue on Nov 1, 2008 10:05 PM PDT up 0 recs

My traditional sad frenchman but now he's crying.

by NOLAmarinergirl on Nov 1, 2008 10:49 PM PDT up 0 recs

Fitting.

J.K.L.

by acblue on Nov 1, 2008 11:07 PM PDT up 0 recs

I'm in the extreme minority here, but I don't think a (realistic) extension is wise

If Beltre’s going to be 30 at the end of the season, realistically if you sign him to an extension deal that means he’s going to be 35 when that deal is up. By the time Beltre hits 33-34 there’s a good chance his bat slows down a bit, and/or he loses a step in the field, you could end up paying most of that money for an extremely ordinary player.

by JI on Nov 1, 2008 5:35 PM PDT 0 recs

I vote secret option 6

Shop Beltre, if you find a deal that is very favorable to you keep him. If that’s not he case try to compete this year and then take the draft picks when he walks.

by JI on Nov 1, 2008 5:38 PM PDT up 0 recs

and by keep I mean trade

by JI on Nov 1, 2008 5:40 PM PDT up 0 recs

I give him a bigger role in the 2009 set of PR commercials.

by Matthew on Nov 1, 2008 5:49 PM PDT 0 recs

Just as long as you didn't vote to ban me from the site!

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Nov 1, 2008 6:08 PM PDT up 0 recs

I might lose my spleen

Just hoping the armor keeps away any mortal blows.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Nov 1, 2008 8:59 PM PDT up 0 recs

I think you've done OK here tonight.

Screw you, Mariners. I'm back in football's loving arms. *edit: well, shit. This isn't going well.

by kevin_ess on Nov 1, 2008 9:09 PM PDT up 0 recs

Whatever that's worth...

Screw you, Mariners. I'm back in football's loving arms. *edit: well, shit. This isn't going well.

by kevin_ess on Nov 1, 2008 9:10 PM PDT up 0 recs

Isn't Beltre a Boras client?

Which means that it’s very unlikely that he will sign an extension with whatever team he plays for next season.

by Steve Nelson on Nov 1, 2008 9:29 PM PDT 0 recs

Here's the thing with Beltre...

Although he’s a major part of this team – both on AND off the field – he doesn’t really get recognized for it. A lot of people STILL think he’s overpaid and really don’t see his value. He’s still somewhat hated in Seattle, which baffles me…

Unfortunately I don’t see him becoming a beloved superstar in this town any time soon, and I’m quite certain he doesn’t want to be on a losing team. I definitely don’t want to trade him to an AL West team, and I’m afraid that if he does reach free agency, he’ll land with the Douchebags, er I mean Angels. While Beane certainly probably appreciates his value, I don’t think he’d sign Beltre for the kind of money Beltre would command on the free agent market.

I’d do whatever I can to rebuild this team quickly AND try and make AB as comfortable in Seattle as possible. Unfortunately, though, Safeco’s probably the worst stadium for him next to Petco. Combine that with the perpetual losing, and that battle is very, very uphill…

This signature space for rent.

by PositivePaul on Nov 1, 2008 10:15 PM PDT 0 recs

This is all depressing...and it'll only be compounded when we bring him back in 2015 on a terrible contract.

He’d then proceed to look like Yuni in the field and undoubtedly have an errant throw hit Red in his face…nothing good will come of this.

I fucking hate you Mariners

by kentroyals5 on Nov 1, 2008 10:39 PM PDT 0 recs

Keep him.

He’s just so cute when he swings at pitches in the dirt.

Indie.

by Taylor H on Nov 2, 2008 9:49 AM PST 0 recs

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by Bearskin Rugburn on Nov 3, 2008 6:02 PM PST up 2 recs

by grover on Nov 2, 2008 10:48 AM PST 0 recs

I wouldn't say we're interested in trading Beltre.

In an ideal world, we’d get to keep him for eternity.

by BrianL on Nov 2, 2008 10:58 AM PST up 0 recs

You know, I've been to Seattle

It was nicer than some of the places I’ve been but I wouldn’t call it ideal!

All kidding aside, do Mariners’ fans believe that a quick turnaround is possible? If it is then I completely understand why you’d want to keep Beltre.

If it isn’t, then the poll results are a little surprising.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Nov 2, 2008 12:44 PM PST up 0 recs