Fun With The Phillies (Math!)
Legend:
wOBA*: park-adjusted wOBA, taken from Stat Corner. Present-day value calculated using rough .1/.2/.3/.4 weighting approximation (2005-2008).
Defense: best guess as to each player's defensive runs contributed above/below posiitonal average, based on UZR, RZR, PMR, etc.
WAR: wins above replacement, with help from Tango. Current positional adjustments can be found here.
| Player | wOBA* | Defense | WAR |
| Howard | .389 | -5 | 2.75-3 |
| Victorino | .360 | 0 | 3-3.25 |
| Utley | .403 | 15 | 6.25-6.5 |
| Burrell | .383 | -10 | 2.5-2.75 |
| Werth | .373 | 5 | 3.25-3.5 |
| Rollins | .363 | 5 | 4-4.25 |
Those WAR figures are intended to reflect each player's estimated true value as of right now. And while you can quibble about things like defense and the weighting all you want, the take-home message is that Ryan Howard and Pat Burrell are wildly overrated, and Chase Utley is amazing.
Keep in mind that, this season, Howard didn't even come close to that wOBA* estimate above. While his four-year estimate is .389, his 2008 performance stood at .359, which - when combined with his defense and position - made him a below-average player overall. Below average! And this is a guy that a few people think deserves the MVP. It boggles the mind. Howard might've been worse than Pedro Feliz.
I don't know that any player type gets overvalued the way slugging first basemen get overvalued. With rare exception, they simply aren't precious assets. That Ryan Howard got paid more than Chase Utley this season despite two fewer years' service time is one of the greater injustices in the league.
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I wonder how much the Phillies could get for him, what with his arbitration salary being so high.
by Teej on Oct 9, 2008 7:18 PM PDT 0 recs
that would depend on who's on the other end
If Bill Bavasi were still around, I’d guess they get Felix + Clement + Morrow
by RollingWave on
Oct 12, 2008 6:28 AM PDT
up
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Don't tell that to Phils fans.
The road to hell is paved with Mariners.
by Taylor H on Oct 10, 2008 8:28 AM PDT 0 recs











