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So I've Been Thinking

One of the downsides of being me is that, after I post something like the squeeze bunt piece last night, I spend countless hours after the fact second-guessing myself. I always strive to be correct in everything I say, so I put a lot of thought into my posts, but if I took the time to look at something from every possible angle before posting about it, nothing would ever get posted, because I'd spend all my time thinking. Eventually I have to click the button to publish. So I write and I post and I find a way to deal with all the afterthoughts as they come.

Most of the time it works out pretty well. This time, though, I remain unconvinced by my own argument.

I love the suicide squeeze. That much is a fact, and it's also a fact that, in many situations, it's a smart call. It's an underused way to pretty reliably drive home an important run. However, in this particular instance, I'm beginning to think that it may indeed have been wiser to let Aybar swing away.

I've read a bunch of discussions this morning about the bunt, and the people who were against it make a pretty good point. What it comes down to is that, prior to the fateful pitch, Aybar was ahead 2-0 after Delcarmen delivered two straight high-inside fastballs. Clearly Boston was anticipating the squeeze, and clearly because of the two balls Aybar's matchup became more favorable. The average Major League hitter this year posted a 1.004 OPS after getting ahead 2-0. No matter how bad a hitter Aybar may be, at that point he was sitting pretty.

Maybe it really would've been better to give him the green light. Chances are he either puts the ball in play or walks. A hit obviously scores the run. Against a drawn-in infield, a lot of groundballs do the same. Most any outfield fly does the job, since Willits is quick and the Red Sox don't have the strongest arms. A pop-up or ball in play directly at an infielder would be bad, but every gamble has its downside. A walk is fine, since Figgins was on deck and he's hard to double up. And so on and so forth. The risk/reward ratio of letting Aybar swing away shifted towards the latter once Delcarmen fell behind in the count, and that changes the picture quite a bit.

After thinking about this for the better part of a work day, I officially don't know what I would've done had I been in Scioscia's place. The squeeze is appealing, but it's not even close to being as obvious as I thought it was last night. The 2-0 count means more than I gave it credit for. There are upsides and drawbacks to each side of the decision, and honestly, while bunting seems safe, it really isn't; a whole host of things can go wrong when a guy tries to bunt, and the more I think about it, the more a ~70% breakeven rate seems a little daunting. Even for a presuambly good bunter like Aybar. Hell, he blew his one chance. That right there should tell you that bunting isn't as easy as it sounds.

I'm not sure which would've been the better decision to make. All we know is that Scioscia got burned by his, and that now he has all winter to think about it. Whether or not he made the right call, I can't be certain, but I can't imagine having to make these decisions on the fly, and if this is what passes for questionable managing in Anaheim, then that team must be in pretty good hands.

What an entertaining series that was.

0 recs | Comment 24 comments

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He could give him the yellow light 1-0, or 2-0

and if he takes a strike or swings and misses you could see how the defense reacts and adjust accordingly.

9=8

by JI on Oct 7, 2008 2:49 PM PDT   0 recs

The suicide squeeze seems to me to be the riskier play

If Aybar had been given the green light and failed, nobody would have talked about how he should have bunted

by Fogel on Oct 7, 2008 3:05 PM PDT   0 recs

With a crap hitter, a "bat handler" it's the right call

The last thing the Angels want to do is to be tied in the ninth inning or later on the road.

People would be much more outraged had he not squeezed, and (likely) made an out.

9=8

by JI on Oct 7, 2008 3:07 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

You would have called the squeeze because you love the squeeze and you have limited time to make the decision.

That still doesn’t mean it’s the right call, but it also doesn’t mean it’s the wrong call. But you definitely have presented the situation as a lot more complicated than what it looked like first-glance.

by Two Rs and Two Ls on Oct 7, 2008 3:09 PM PDT   0 recs

In other news

Michael Wilbon, on whether Griffey coming back is a good thing: “I’m glad he’s coming back. He plays a good defensive centerfield.”

by Fogel on Oct 7, 2008 3:26 PM PDT   0 recs

I'd sure take him.

I’d take the worst player on any MLB roster. WFB or Cairo would probably be an All-Star in my league.

I'm back to liking midgets too much (Scrappy's comes first, don't worry).

by Thingray on Oct 7, 2008 5:21 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

One thing I'm not sure whether has been brought or not

but Aybar was hitting from the left side on that AB right? Which means the third base line, ergo Willits, was clearly visible to Varitek. Not sure if it matters much in this case, but as far as squeezes go, I’d prefer to have the opposing catcher in the dark as long as possible.

by Matthew on Oct 7, 2008 4:06 PM PDT   0 recs

I assume he was hitting left handed

since he was facing Delcarmen.

Not only that, it makes pitching out much easier too.

9=8

by JI on Oct 7, 2008 4:24 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

For what it's worth

Even though I hated the bunt at the time, you made me hate it lots less with your post. I actually wasn’t even accounting for the count on (gonna take you to an) Aybar. I really don’t like selling out for a single run as the visitor there. And I felt that way before Boston scored in the bottom half of the inning. But Boston is an offensive juggernaut and if I’m Scocia I like my odds of scoring that run with Aybar swinging away against a pulled-in infield, or the next guy getting a hit. And if things go my way I get two runs.

But I WAS rooting for Boston to win, so I’m happy the way it turned out.

by short on Oct 7, 2008 4:44 PM PDT   0 recs

"Does crowd control Rays' fate against Red Sox?" - MLB.com

It didn’t help the Angels.

The road to hell is paved with Mariners.

by Taylor H on Oct 7, 2008 6:52 PM PDT   0 recs

1.004 OPS...

In computing a 1.004 OPS for Major League hitters in a 2-0 count, does that take into account what Aybar’s OPS was in a 2-0 count? I only mention it because it seems like better hitters would be more likely to get into a 2-0 count. Those “better hitters” would continue to do well in a 2-0 count, skewing the average OPS towards those hitters. I don’t know if there is enough data on Aybar in a 2-0 count or the correct process for comparing these mathematically. Does anyone know a place where I could find info like this? This is by no means a nitpick, I am simply wondering if a drastic change in OPS would occur.

by TheTank123 on Oct 7, 2008 7:06 PM PDT   0 recs

It wouldn't be drastic, but obviously Aybar's true talent OPS after a 2-0 count wouldn't be 1.004, because he isn't good at hitting

he would still be much much better after 2-0 than he would be overall, though, which is the big point here.

by Jeff on Oct 7, 2008 7:43 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Isn't contextual batted ball profile a little more important here?

Has anyone looked into that? Either a multiplier or constant that can be added to LD, FB, and GB% that would take into account the count? I suspect the difference wouldn’t be statistically significant, but if it were, in this particular situation it might help make the right call…

by spike07 on Oct 8, 2008 6:11 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Also, I don't think OPS is a particularly relevant stat here

since it’s really irrelevant what kind of hit Aybar gets. This is a rare situation where I think average would have to speak for itself

by seattlebruin on Oct 9, 2008 11:30 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

You're right about that

but OBP is pretty important, too. If Aybar gets on base, then that sets up a better situation.

by Jeff on Oct 9, 2008 1:12 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Right handed pitcher-Left handed batter

Once Scioscia saw Aybar take two inside fastballs, the suicide squeeze no longer made sense. There was a right handed pitcher (looking straight at the runner) and a left handed batter (giving Varitek a clear look at and play on the runner). Inside fastballs on the hands are difficult to bunt and they move the batter back away from the plate. It was a tailor made put out at home and a suddenly shaky Red Sox team was given new life. If Aybar takes ball 3 (the pitch was inside), he is in command to get a pitch he can handle and possibly pull a grounder to the right side. If he gets a walk, Figgins was tearing up Red Sox pitching and would have really put stress on the overworked bullpen. The Angels wreak havoc with smart base running but not in this case.

by IsItTrue on Oct 8, 2008 6:26 PM PDT   0 recs

Scioscia's Wiki page has been updated.
Scioscia committed the worst coaching blunder of all-time on October 6th, 2008, when he opted for a suicide squeeze in an elimination game against the Boston Red Sox. The call failed miserably, and cost his team the playoff series.

You’ve gotta be kidding me.

"Sorry I hit you in the helmet Hank, I meant to hit you in the neck." Stan Williams to Hank Aaron.

by dpseadv on Oct 9, 2008 9:39 PM PDT   0 recs

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