World Series Preview

by Jeff on Oct 21, 2008 10:30 AM PDT in Upcoming Events Comment 85 comments

CONTEXT

The Tampa Bay Rays and the Philadelphia Phillies will face each other in the 2008 World Series, which begins tomorrow night. The Rays have advanced this far by defeating the Chicago White Sox and the Boston Red Sox. The Phillies have advanced this far by defeating the Milwaukee Brewers and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Both the Rays and Phillies managed to defeat their opponents by outplaying them in a short series.

KEY PLAYERS

Tampa Bay:

Roster

Philadelphia:

Roster

Both the Rays and Phillies are filled to the brim with possible difference-makers. The 50 listed above will likely be the most important.

KEY QUESTIONS

Can the Tampa Bay Rays outscore the Philadelphia Phillies?

They can.

Can the Philadelphia Phillies outscore the Tampa Bay Rays?

They can.

Will one of the Tampa Bay Rays and Philadelphia Phillies outscore the other four times?

Most certainly yes!

X FACTOR

The Rays will play a maximum of four games at home, while the Phillies will play a maximum of three games at home. The home crowds may or may not help. I imagine there are also intangibles somewhere.

CONCLUSION

Both the Rays and the Phillies are good teams. The Rays are a little better. If you re-played the World Series a million times, roughly 55-60% of the time the Rays would be crowned as champions. This World Series will be played once. One of these teams will win four games. The other probably won't. The outcome will mean everything, and nothing.

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Comments

Awesome.

by Double06 on Oct 21, 2008 10:36 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I see there are some new features added below front page articles.

by Wilder. on Oct 21, 2008 10:36 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Does the addition of the FB button mean the FB LL group is officially a propoganda arm of the Tui-umverate?

It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray

by Faux on Oct 21, 2008 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

This explains so much.

by NOLAmarinergirl on Oct 22, 2008 6:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

This post is so good I'm going to Spread The Word.

Or Buzz Up. Or something. But I am slightly disturbed that you didn’t talk about either Promising Young Player or Wily Veteran Taking His Last Shot.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Oct 21, 2008 10:36 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

X factors!

by Jeff on Oct 21, 2008 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tell me about it. You did an entire preview and didn't once mention intangibles.

And people wonder why bloggers get no respect from the Bill Plaschkes of the world.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Oct 21, 2008 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I mentioned intangibles once

by Jeff on Oct 21, 2008 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Like I'm supposed to read all those WORDS.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Oct 21, 2008 10:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Okay, you mentioned them

but you didn’t emphasize them.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Oct 21, 2008 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

They were intangibly emphasized.

You cannot quantify how much he mentioned them. It’s all the other things that the mention brings to the article. The extra word count, the meter, the way it comes after a really short sentence, helping to strengthen both points individually through the use of hard stops.

by Matthew on Oct 21, 2008 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Great post by Jeff, but if you had done this preview

There would have been beer at the bottom. Which would have been good.

by Sec 108 on Oct 21, 2008 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

What a gritty post

Your experience is really showing at the most clutch time of the year.

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Oct 21, 2008 12:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

One of the teams might outscore the other? I am shocked at your boldness.

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Oct 21, 2008 10:44 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I dare others to step out onto my limb

by Jeff on Oct 21, 2008 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

One team's fan base will be overjoyed, while the other's will be temporarily despondent.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Oct 21, 2008 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

...

Will one of the Tampa Bay Rays and Philadelphia Phillies outscore the other?

Most certainly yes!

If they tie over the course of the series, you’ll eat those words.

It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray

by Faux on Oct 21, 2008 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I should amend this sentence

by Jeff on Oct 21, 2008 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't retreat off the limb

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Oct 21, 2008 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have to cover my ass

by Jeff on Oct 21, 2008 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

No one likes it when you walk around naked in public

by seattlebruin on Oct 21, 2008 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh great, another hidden comment...

It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray

by Faux on Oct 21, 2008 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I thought you meant and/or

by JI on Oct 21, 2008 10:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I am going to guess that baseball will be played tomorrow.

Maybe in St. Petersburg, but really it could happen anywhere.

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Oct 21, 2008 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

One of these games will go into extra innings

by Fogel on Oct 21, 2008 1:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

There will be at least one home run hit in the series

by seattlebruin on Oct 21, 2008 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not bold enough.

“There will be at least 4 runs scored combined in this series, with a minimum of 1 per game, but no apparent maximum.”

...and now I'm here

by Librocrat on Oct 21, 2008 11:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The outcome will mean everything, and nothing.

Well said

by JI on Oct 21, 2008 10:46 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

As with life itself.

Insight without prolixity.

by Paytheline on Oct 21, 2008 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Prolix! Prolix! Nothing a pair of scissors can't fix!

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Oct 21, 2008 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

After reading this preview,

I am FUCKING PUMPED! for the Fall Classic. Thank you, Jeff.

by FlaskInSafeco on Oct 21, 2008 1:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You also didn't mention how many Octobers there are.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Oct 21, 2008 10:49 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

This is a serious article

I didn’t want to insult my audience.

by Jeff on Oct 21, 2008 10:53 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

And we appreciate it.

The Pulitzer people will be in touch.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Oct 21, 2008 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You probably want to throw something in there about small ball and the importance of the HnR

It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray

by Faux on Oct 21, 2008 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

How about a forecast for how many of the runs scored will be manufactured?

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Oct 21, 2008 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fall under the header of "outscoring"

by Jeff on Oct 21, 2008 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

According to this

http://www.northerniraq.info/forums/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=348

THERE ARE TWO OCTOBERS!

here is a list of months from Baran Rizgar’s Dersên Kurdî

Çieyê Pashîn = January
Sibat = February
Adar = March
Nîsan = April
Gulan = May
Hezîran = June
Tîrmeh = July
Tebax = August
Îlon = September
Çirîya Pêshîn = October
Cotmeh = October
Çirîya Pashîn = November
Mijdar = November
Çileyê Pêshîn = December

don’t ask me why there are two Octobers and two Novembers.

the other angels fan

by Eyebrows on Oct 21, 2008 1:08 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Also

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Two_Octobers

the other angels fan

by Eyebrows on Oct 21, 2008 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Too funny. Rec'd.

by Abominable Snowman on Oct 21, 2008 11:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

But you didn't.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Oct 22, 2008 9:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Running the series a million times

It would be interesting to simulate this out in Diamond Mind of MLB 2k8….

Difficult to simulate it exactly though, as we won’t really know exact starting rotations and stuff like that.

by batura on Oct 21, 2008 11:20 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I'd rather see it in Power Pros.

That’s a single to right. UPTON! With an RBI single! THE RAYS! Score the first run of the game!

by Two Rs and Two Ls on Oct 21, 2008 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs

Nice.

by Teej on Oct 21, 2008 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Those pronunciations are on purpose, correct?

It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray

by Faux on Oct 21, 2008 11:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Turning off the announcer is the first thing I do when playing Power Pros

Signed in just to applaud this comment.

by Spoomeister on Oct 21, 2008 1:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I love the messed up announcer.

54!

by joof on Oct 21, 2008 4:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The messed up announcer just adds to the campiness of that game.

by Two Rs and Two Ls on Oct 21, 2008 6:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

So do you think the Phillies will collapse once Gillick leaves?

JI/Robert '08!

by Fin on Oct 21, 2008 12:00 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

For once, he didn't make any big splashes.

The only one I remember that could have gone bad was the Cupcakes deal, and they didn’t really give up too much for him.

I’d say that Philly might break that string.

It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray

by Faux on Oct 21, 2008 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He made a big splash in Seattle?

by Robert on Oct 21, 2008 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry, bad term.

It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray

by Faux on Oct 21, 2008 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

More like drained the pool.

by Two Rs and Two Ls on Oct 21, 2008 6:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

They gave up two of their top four prospects for him.

(BP rankings)

by Teej on Oct 21, 2008 12:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That was really their best prospects?

Wow. Everything I had heard was that they were OK talent, not anything that high.

It's hard to convince people to let you eat them if you're an asshole. - Thingray

by Faux on Oct 21, 2008 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, they didn't have much to begin with, it looks like.

Kevin Goldstein had them ranked Nos. 3 and 4, with both of them as three-star prospects.

Dave Cameron is high on Cardenas. Or at least he was at the time of the trade.

Other than that, though, I don’t know much.

by Teej on Oct 21, 2008 12:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hey look the first W. S. since the Astros got their asses handed to them.

A one game W. S.! Go Jamie!! And those other 8 guys behind you!

"Sorry I hit you in the helmet Hank, I meant to hit you in the neck." Stan Williams to Hank Aaron.

by dpseadv on Oct 21, 2008 12:14 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Well, pitching and defense win championships

so offense is obviously third. So now it’s just a matter of determining which intangible is more tangible.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Oct 21, 2008 1:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

A loud home crowd or clubhouse chemistry?

the other angels fan

by Eyebrows on Oct 21, 2008 1:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd have to go with clubhouse chemistry, myself

but the loud home crowd might be pretty significant too.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Oct 21, 2008 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not the most important factors

Loud home crowd < championship tradition < veteran presence < playoff experience < clubhouse chemistry < scrappy white guys with dirt on their unis <<<<<< playing the game the right way.

by PDXTai on Oct 21, 2008 2:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Needs more clutchiness

I predict the team that scores the most runs in the first game will have a good chance to win that game. If that’s not going too far.

I also think that if one team gets ahead 2-0 or 3-1 or even 3-0 in games, the other team will have a difficult time coming back, unless they’re really, really clutch.

I predict that the adjective “surprising” will be used to describe the Rays no less than 3 × 10^8 times.

by PDXTai on Oct 21, 2008 1:58 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Don't forget the phrase "out of nowhere"

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Oct 21, 2008 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Scientific fact:

(minimum number of times 2008 Rays described as surprising ) >= (speed of light in meters/second)
I think Einstein was the first to theorize this. I also predict the announcing crew abuses both postseason statistics and pitcher-hitter matchup statistics at least 6.02 × 10^23 times during the series.

by FlaskInSafeco on Oct 21, 2008 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs