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So

Boston's roster has 21 players with prior playoff experience, 19 of whom have been to the World Series. Tampa's has six and two. All that extra experience has gotten the Red Sox outscored 31-15 through four games. The Rays may be a young team that's never been here before, but they're the ones who fought back against the pressure after a miserable first game, and the Red Sox are the ones who frittered away an opportunity to take control. The Red Sox are the ones who've looked helpless on their own turf against an offensive onslaught led by a herd of postseason greenhorns. David Ortiz is widely heralded as the greatest clutch performer of our generation, and he has one hit. Carl Crawford has nine.

What good is prior playoff experience, really? What is the tangible benefit of having played in October before? It's not like you need experience to learn how to play, because the game isn't any different. Baseball in October is no different than baseball in July. It's not anything new. There are no gameplay keys unique to winning in the playoffs. You don't have to hit behind the runner more often. You don't have to be more active on the basepaths. You don't have to manufacture more runs. You don't have to pitch more inside. The rules are all still the same. You just have to outscore the other team, the same way you do during the regular season. There's nothing there to get used to.

Is it a comfort thing? I suppose postseason novices might be a little more jittery in the lead-up, but for one thing, everyone's always going to be a little anxious going into the playoffs, and for another, I imagine it takes all of one pitch for the players to realize that it's just another baseball game. The same game they've all been playing their entire lives. There's no place to be nervous. There's no time to be nervous. And besides, players who get nervous and buckle under pressure will be selected against far before they ever reach the Major Leagues. You have to pass an awful lot of tests before you find yourself on a postseason roster. Stressful tests. You don't make it to October if you can't handle high stakes. Everybody who makes it has already demonstrated on countless occasions that they're up to the challenge.

It's easy to say "Boston's the more experienced team," but until someone explains to me what that actually means for them going forward, I've no reason to care. Why should I? By itself, it's an empty statement. It's true, but it's empty. And if no one can demonstrate to me how extra experience changes the way players play, then it is of negligible relevance. You might as well tell me the Rays are winning because of their mohawks.*

This series isn't over. Boston still has a 10-15% chance of coming back to advance. They're a heck of a solid team, and by no means can they be counted out. But for all of the talk about how they've been in this situation before - so what? How does that help them? They have to win three games in a row. They can't make it all up with one swing. No shit. Tampa would know that too. And if Boston's experience were so critical, shouldn't it have prevented them from falling behind 3-1 in the first place? Losing seems like a silly way of trying to win.

After the Red Sox stopped the Rays, 2-0, in Game 1 of the American League Championship Series at Tropicana Field, Ortiz was asked about the importance of winning here. The Red Sox were 1-8 at Tropicana this year. Instead of discussing how Boston conquered the dome, Ortiz analyzed the Rays.

“I’m telling you, I saw faces tonight different than what I see in the regular season,” he said. “I don’t blame nobody. It’s a lot of pressure out there right now in this game. You know you have to win or otherwise you go home.”

For three games now, those nervous faces have beaten the living crap out of the experienced Red Sox. They've done so because they've made better use of their talent, and at the end of the day, that's the only thing - the only thing - that matters.

Star-divide

* The Rays are not winning because of their mohawks.

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If people where going to let the experience BS die

It would have happened when the Marlins won in 2003.

People with experience always want to fall back on it to feel superior. When you have a bunch of ex-players in the media they will always gravitate to the older vets.

It is the way it is and it will never change.

by Sec 108 on Oct 15, 2008 12:33 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It's also much easier to simply write off experience than to look at nitty-gritty stat breakdowns.

BUT – I highly doubt it’s worth going into the detail I suggested (in the previous thread) to find what I’d expect to be a very minute effect. Seriously, that would be a lot of work…. and any impact would be negligible. I’m definately not on the experience-is-king bandwagon.

Talent’s going to trump experience on the grand scale of things, there’s not really much question about which one is more important. The experience is going to matter about as often as a half-ounce of weight in your checked luggage when flying… 99.5% of the time it’s not a big enough factor to make a difference. MLB organizations would be well-served to not put any emphasis at all into post-season experience when building rosters; they’d get much better results.

Visiting Mariners' fan

by KingCorran on Oct 15, 2008 1:12 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I just love that "experts" can point to anything as some sort of critical, deciding factor

It’s not really news to point out that it’s not falsifiable, but it’s totally not fucking falsifiable.

So and so won because their experience helped them calm their nerves.
So and so won because their inexperience resulted in fewer nerves.
So and so won because the manager runs a tight ship, and that business-like mindset helps calm their nerves.
So and so won because their manager lets the players be themselves, and get crazy haircuts instead of fixating on the pressure of the moment.

I guess the surprising thing isn’t that people make up a lot of odd causal theories, it’s that they feel it’s so necessary. What’s wrong with saying that Tampa’s bats got hot, or that Boston’s pitching picked a terrible week to get all shitty?

by marc w on Oct 15, 2008 1:11 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't know if I buy that post season experience doesn't matter at all.

I think there is something to having been there before to help quench some of the nerves, but I certainly don’t think it matters much and I don’t believe that it matters the same to every player.

I was thinking just now that it would be fun to take the first major league appearance by a pitcher and compare that to the rest of his MLB appearances. And that over a big enough sample of pitchers you might be able to reach some sort of interesting result. However, the assumption behind the structure is that pitchers would be the most nervous during their first appearance in the big leagues.

Now, I think that’s a reasonable assumption, but here’s the rub: when does the pitcher get over those “oh my god, I’m pitching in the majors” butterflies? There’s no way to tell and it’s going to vary completely from pitcher to pitcher. Some never get over it, some are over it before they throw a pitch, some are over it after the first pitch, or first inning, or first time through the order, or after five starts, etc.

And that’s the problem here with trying to argue that experience matters, you have no way of knowing when it stops mattering. When does inexperience become experience? And if you’re not willing to admit that it’s a personal thing and is going to vary, well then… you just might be a mainstream sports reporter.

by Matthew on Oct 15, 2008 1:18 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   1 recs

That's the thing for me.

These things are damn near impossible to quantify in any meaningful way. I think it’s a near certainty that nervousness/butterflies/whatever you wish to call it has an effect, but how to you know what results are based on that effect? Did Hypothetical Player strike out swinging in a high leverage situation because he was nervous, or did he just get fooled? Did Hypothetical Pitcher give up a game winning homer because his shakiness caused to him to miss his spot, or did the hitter guess correctly? And so on and so forth. It’s impossible to tell.

J.K.L.

by acblue on Oct 15, 2008 2:56 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The way I see it

I imagine some players are going to be a little more nervous than others, but I’m not sold that that necessarily correlates with experience. There are more nervous people and there are more confident people, and I’m not sure that a lot of experience can turn the former into the latter, or that a lack of experience can turn the latter into the former.

(Which says nothing of the fact that to be a professional athlete it’s almost necessary to be confident to the point of cockiness.)

I feel like this is just a variation on the old chemistry argument.

-an effect may or may not exist
-the effect, if it exists, is impossible to measure
-the effect, if it exists, is also impossible to predict
-the effect, if it exists, probably has a tiny influence anyway
-the effect isn’t worth obsessing over

by Jeff on Oct 15, 2008 3:11 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That's the way I see it as well.

It gives sportswriters something to talk about after the games. That’s the only reason anyone cares.

J.K.L.

by acblue on Oct 15, 2008 3:17 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The other huge problem I would see with any study of this type is scouting-related noise

often enough a guy will have some quick success simply because his opponents don’t have a good scouting report on him. I’d think this would help wash away some of the production lost to nervousness – it’s not like the opponents know what to expect either

by seattlebruin on Oct 15, 2008 7:23 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The only difference I can think of, is

teams would be well served to be good at “manufacturing runs” because they’ll have fewer base runners against better pitching. Of course these skills would serve them well against tough pitching in the regular season…

by _David_ on Oct 15, 2008 2:47 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What keeps me off the Tampa Bay bandwagon

is memory of what happened with the Marlins. Have the local fans supported or generally given a shit about the Rays all year? They have an incredibly low payroll. Great. Now that Upton, Longoria etc have more or less become stars, will the team hold onto them or sell them off?

ignacio

by ignacio on Oct 15, 2008 5:06 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Like I give a shit about the fans not caring.

Their philosophies on how to build a baseball team are the right ones and they just cockblocked this generation’s juggernaut with poorer philosophies and 5 times the resources. As long as the fans don’t become an infectious plague that infiltrates enemy stadiums, the Rays are awesome.

by Double06 on Oct 15, 2008 5:19 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

They signed Longoria to what was essentially a nine-year contract.

Upton is under control for the next four. They’ve given long-term deals to Kazmir and Shields. The core of this team is going to be in place for a long time.

by Teej on Oct 15, 2008 5:56 PM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Matthew sort of touched on this, and so did JI earlier

The Rays were inexperienced coming into the playoffs. Are they experienced now? When do you go from one to the other?

This entire idea is annoying.

by Jeff on Oct 15, 2008 5:28 PM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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