Experience Matters

by Jeff Sullivan on Oct 15, 2008 10:59 AM PDT in The More You Know Comment 11 comments

HITTERS

Never been in the playoffs: 485 AB, .274/.345/.462
Been in the playoffs: 1107 AB, .249/.321/.388
Been in the World Series: 486 AB, .243/.317/.377

PITCHERS

Never been in the playoffs: 161 IP, 3.13 RA
Been in the playoffs: 252.1 IP, 5.14 RA
Been in the World Series: 134.1 IP, 4.49 RA

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The Rays know what it takes because they beat the White Sox

by JI on Oct 15, 2008 11:04 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Jeff

I love the work that you do on this site but I am going to have to disagree with you here. It appears that the evidence you brought forth actually proves that prior experience is not all that important. This gets lost a lot of the time with MSM but sometimes you need to put forth a little extra effort and see through the hype. It requires a little extra diligence on your part but in the end you will find it worth it. Thanks and keep up the otherwise good work.

by Robert on Oct 15, 2008 11:13 AM PDT reply actions 5 recs

It appears you are not reading the stats correctly. Perhaps they are too advanced for you.

by NOLAmarinergirl on Oct 15, 2008 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

An easy mistake on your part, Robert.

See, you statheads who have never been to a game or even been out of your mom’s basement always forget to figure in Grit and Gamerness. Upton and Longoria (the two who are really destroying the curve) are gamers, so of course they’re doing well! Besides, Upton played (and won a silver medal) with Team USA in 2001. How many Red Sox have that experience? And Evan Longoria wasn’t even offered a baseball scholarship out of high school. You can’t even measure the kid’s determination!

by AnotherAaron on Oct 15, 2008 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It appears Jeff, that I was wrong in my original assessment

My sincere apologies follow. I will learn to trust your gut instinct more often in the future.

by Robert on Oct 19, 2008 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Its because they don't realize how big of a game they are in...

by Edgar for Pres on Oct 15, 2008 11:44 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Too many factors

I’d love to see these numbers broken down by age. Most players with playoff experience are somewhat older, as you’d expect… and therefore more likely to be in the decline of their careers. Obviously an age breakdown would have to be done over multiple playoff seasons, to provide a good sample size.

I don’t think experience is the be-all and end-all. I think that – all else held the same – it is valuable to some degree. I also don’t think the above stats necessarily tell the whole story. Who knows? Maybe they do… but age seems like one likely side influence that isn’t being accounted for yet. Any other factors we should take into account as well?

Visiting Mariners' fan

by KingCorran on Oct 15, 2008 11:53 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't see any major reason why lack of experience would worsen performance

I think its just an excuse for when less experienced players do worse, and when more experienced players do its just overlooked. Talent is talent.

by Fett42 on Oct 15, 2008 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know...

…there’s an obvious line in the sand between, say, AAA and the Majors. Now, a large part of that is the talent level you’re facing. But some aspect is always attributed to experience facing that talent, is it not?

Now, in the playoffs you’re facing a talent level you’ve faced all year – but theoretically, it’s from somewhere toward the top of the pile. You also have far more investment in the results, the crowd interaction slides way up, and the pressure is much higher. I can see where experience in dealing with that situation in the past would be beneficial to performance – again, all else being equal. I don’t think that experience can be written off as non-consequential, even if it is not NEARLY as large a factor as some would have us believe.

Visiting Mariners' fan

by KingCorran on Oct 15, 2008 12:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs