Adam Jones & Jacoby Ellsbury
by Jeff on Oct 14, 2008 3:29 PM PDT
in Miscellaneous
98 comments
Ellsbury offense (career): .329 wOBA*
Ellsbury offense (2008): .319 wOBA*
Ellsbury defense: good --> great CF
Ellsbury birthdate: 9/11/83
Jones offense (career): .321 wOBA*
Jones offense (2008): .324 wOBA*
Jones defense: good --> great CF
Jones birthdate: 8/1/85
Jacoby Ellsbury was 24 when he debuted and collected his first 100+ plate appearances in the Major Leagues. Adam Jones was 21/22. As it stands, Jones is two years younger than Ellsbury and every bit as good overall as a player.
While Ellsbury may get all the attention, Jones is just as good now and - given his age and skillset - in line to be the better of the two down the road. By a pretty fair margin if his power comes back. The return of Jones' home run ability would dwarf the slight advantage Ellsbury gains by being a better baserunner.
Boy did we ever make a mistake. And also fuck the hype machine.
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Like a double kick-in-the-balls.
No more giving away players like these again at least….
I think….
by ThundaPC on Oct 14, 2008 3:33 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Shane Spencer is going to be an anchor in the Yankee outfield for at least a decade.
by marc w on Oct 14, 2008 3:34 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
That was one talented 26 year old rookie
He wound up sort of a slighty better hitting version of Aaron Small.
by Jeff on Oct 14, 2008 3:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Age means nothing. It's all about how you handle the pressure of Playoff Baseball (tm).
Ellsbury’s got it. Spencer’s got it. Pedroia was the precipitate that developed from a solution of liquid Playoff Baseball™.
by marc w on Oct 14, 2008 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah but
when was the last time Adam Jones won tacos for everybody?
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
by pdb on Oct 14, 2008 3:40 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I still don't understand how people benefited from free Taco Bell.
by Jeff on Oct 14, 2008 3:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The medical community no doubt saw a benefit
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
by pdb on Oct 14, 2008 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Besides
You can go to any taco bell and tell them you’re redeeming your K-man taco, and they won’t question whether or not the guy struck out, but give you a taco anyways
That’s how it is with our AAA games here in Syracuse
by mariners124m on Oct 14, 2008 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
More heart attacks now, more social security $ to go around when you and I retire
by Lents Park Homer on Oct 14, 2008 3:44 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
/retard failed to post this in reply to a comment above… blerg
by Lents Park Homer on Oct 14, 2008 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree that I wouldn't have traded Jones for Bedard straight up
given that scenario. At least the other 4 guys were nobodys.
by JI on Oct 14, 2008 3:44 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Tony Butler was a potential #2
But I never really liked Jones screw him OF prospects are plentiful.
BOOYA! You got Slurved!
by Slurvey on Oct 14, 2008 3:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This trade was so bad that I can't even bring myself to root against the players we traded
Much like this past season, if I’m going to live through something bad, I want it to be the mostest bad thing to ever happen.
by Jeff on Oct 14, 2008 3:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I fully agree with this
I really wanted the M’s to challenge the ’62 Mets this season.
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
by pdb on Oct 14, 2008 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed.
Though every time I see people asking about Tillman and when he’s going to be in the Orioles rotation it’s like opening the wound again, salting it, and then throwing lemon juice and battery acid in for good measure.
(we still have Washburn! and Silva! get as used to that as you’re able)
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/milb-mariners/
by JY on Oct 14, 2008 3:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Makes sense, being the minor league guy and all
Tillman’s development makes me angry too, but it’s not going to boil over until he (and/or Butler) makes a splash in the bigs. That’s just going to rub my face in it all over again.
by Jeff on Oct 14, 2008 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Had that trade NOT included Tillman...
…I actually would be OK with it.
Specifically adding Tillman to the group pissed me off waaaay more than the package of Jones and my favorite player in baseball.
This signature space for rent.
by PositivePaul on Oct 14, 2008 4:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tony Butler was the guy that killed me to see go.
Tillman looked more like a MOR guy to me.
BOOYA! You got Slurved!
by Slurvey on Oct 14, 2008 4:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you were going mostly off their debut years, it does, sort of.
Butler looked like he was going to be one of the major steals in the draft and BA was saying at the time that some teams wish they had grabbed him first round in retrospect.
Tillman, on the other hand, was still perceived as being a guy who phoned it in during high school and got kicked around in Everett. You had to pay some close attention to his final months in High Desert to think otherwise.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/milb-mariners/
by JY on Oct 14, 2008 4:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
To make matters worse...
… from my perspective at least, was that it was originally presented as “Oh yeah, they’ll get Jones, Sherrill, Mickolio, and their choice of Butler or Tillman” to “Hell, why not throw both in”, and in the process things went from massively disappointing to ludicrous.
I remember a some of the prospecting types saying at the time that we gave up more than the Mets did to get Santana, or any other pitcher traded that offseason.
(I also remember the early days of the Free George Sherrill campaign. Ouch)
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/milb-mariners/
by JY on Oct 14, 2008 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Indeed we DID give up more than the Mets
BTW — are you on Facebook? Elsid just directed me to a group of people on there that are actually more insanely devoted to GS52 than I ever was. And here all along I thought I was crazy-mad for all things George Sherrill…
This signature space for rent.
by PositivePaul on Oct 14, 2008 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, as of recently.
I’ll have to check that out, it’s hard to believe that there’s anyone else that’s crazier about him, but good for him for earning that kind of devotion.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/milb-mariners/
by JY on Oct 14, 2008 4:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lucky for me, the HoRam trade was so off the charts bad
that it permanently recalibrated my emotional responses. I fear no evil because I can no longer feel pain.
by Matthew on Oct 14, 2008 4:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That was a different kind of bad
That trade was Quarantine. This trade was Outbreak.
by Jeff on Oct 14, 2008 4:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This doesn't really make sense unless you have the same bad taste in movies that I do
by Jeff on Oct 14, 2008 4:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have not seen Quarantine. But c'mon, Outbreak? It's a pop-culture dream!
Anyways, it doesn’t really matter the type of bad (and we’ve gone over the planning-bad vs execution-bad debate before), I just cannot get emotionally worked up over it on the same level ever again. When HoRam broke, I cursed, I broke things, I sat there shaking, literally shaking, with some combination of rage/confusion/depression. It’s like being though a 7.0 earthquake. After that, it takes a while before you start caring about the 5.0s again.
by Matthew on Oct 14, 2008 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with that, and yet
the Bedard deal was soooo much bigger. The stupid was pure, distilled and potent in the HoRam deal, but the Bedard trade was a gigantic tank of idiocy.
We all knew HoRam wasn’t going to ‘stabilize’ the rotation, and I realize I’m totally biased due to the fact that I’m closer (geographically and emotionally) to the Rainiers than the M’s, but the Bedard trade really felt like robbery. Not in the ‘damn, that’s a good trade from BAL’s point of view’ but in the literal, gun-to-head, taking-my-precious-stuff sense.
Yes, it was marginally better (I guess) to have gone through the training wheels version a year earlier, but still….
by marc w on Oct 14, 2008 4:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not a rational argument.
I’m just relating how they impacted me.
Plus the 10-week protracted saga of Bedard really dampened it and I was in Shanghai when it became officially official.
by Matthew on Oct 14, 2008 4:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The 10 week saga did affect reactions
but in the end only magnified it (for me). I was still telling myself (ha ha!) that Bavasi was holding out for a really, really good deal. That if the O’s held out for Tillman or Butler, that Bavasi would just say no.
by marc w on Oct 14, 2008 4:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know what you mean
but if that trade was sort of an instant punch in the stomach, this one is more like a constant searing soul destroyer. As bad as Soriano/Ramirez was, I got over that one a lot faster than I’ll get over this one. Just the magnitude of it…
by Jeff on Oct 14, 2008 4:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The peak of HoRam pain is higher than anything Bedard has ever come close to.
by Matthew on Oct 14, 2008 4:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure about that
at least for me, anyway. It’s just a different kind of pain.
by Jeff on Oct 14, 2008 4:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe for you it would be more like this
Horacio gets the peak, but Bedard gets the integral.
by Jeff on Oct 14, 2008 4:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It was for me.
Before that trade, Bavasi had actually made shrewd trades. I was hopeful that his only drawback was mediocre ability with free agent pitching. Afterward HoRam, anything was possible. How could the Bedard trade surprise anyone after HoRam? Throw in the hopeful LaRoche-Hudson rumor from just hours before, plus some Manny rumors and this overall hopeful feeling that was just crushed within such a short time and the emotional impact hit me much worse.
Or, in other words
HoRam = a good friend who just graduated high school and is off to a great future at a great college is randomly killed by a drunk driver one night.
Bedard = a best friend in college who ends up in the wrong frat and slowly loses control of his life to drugs and stuff.
They both suck, and from a purely integral POV, Bedard hurts more, but the pain is spread out, you saw it coming, and you had time to prepare, to rationalize. HoRam was out of nowhere and it fundamentally changed my world view. HoRam introduced me to the concept that there was no floor. Bedard simply affirmed it.
by Matthew on Oct 14, 2008 4:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
NB: These relative values might change in the future naturally
as the Bedard trade looks worse and worse. In which case, HoRam might be like randomly getting shot (and recovering) while Bedard might be more akin to losing an arm. You try to rationalize it at first (I can still walk, I have my other arm) but the more time that goes by, the more you realize that holy shit it sucks to only have one arm.
by Matthew on Oct 14, 2008 4:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmmmm....
Given the magnitude of the two trades, I’d go with:
HoRam = good friend who goes off to a great college, randomly marries some cult-member wife and you never hear from him again.
Bedard = all your pals on the baseball team go off to a tournament across the country, and you can’t go because of something stupid. Plane goes down, no survivors.
Sure, it’s nice that the HoRam situation introduces the concept of ‘no floor’ but there’s nothing like getting your face rubbed in… er, the absence of a floor. HoRam would never harm a decent team’s ability to compete, especially in year x+2 or so. Not so with the Bedard trade. I know, I know, you’re just talking about your personal reaction, and that’s fair – I’m somewhat the same way with the Asdrubal Cabrera deal. But nothing…NOTHING… prepared me for this.
by marc w on Oct 14, 2008 4:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We should compare more trades to virus disaster movies.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/milb-mariners/
by JY on Oct 14, 2008 4:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's veering dangerously close to Bill Simmons-land
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.
by pdb on Oct 14, 2008 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
So long as we don't get to Art Thiel terrirtory on references, I can manage.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/milb-mariners/
by JY on Oct 14, 2008 4:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Or just disaster movies in general.
BOOYA! You got Slurved!
by Slurvey on Oct 14, 2008 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Tillman turns into a good starter it'll be more like Resident Evil: Extinction
by Jeff on Oct 14, 2008 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But Mickolio had a gaudy tRA in his 7 2/3 IP.
And most people forget he was even included!
by marc w on Oct 14, 2008 4:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What has to happen to reach Doom: The Movie?
Tillman and Butler share join Cy Young in 2011 with Erik Bedard who goes back to Baltimore after 2009, Mickolio saving 40 games, Sherrill traded for a MOTO bat and Adam Jones winning MVP?
by Matthew on Oct 14, 2008 4:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Neither have I,
I just recall it being panned as horrible.
by Matthew on Oct 14, 2008 4:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Doom movie follows that red pain curve you posted.
It’s really REALLY bad. It’s got first person shooter parts it’s so bad.
And to think they nearly made a campy version of it in the 90’s starring Bruce Campbell.
by Smegmalicious on Oct 14, 2008 4:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not until you watch the Cannibal! commentary track.
by Matthew on Oct 14, 2008 4:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It has its moments
if you ever played Doom 3 on PC there are some decent connections. The Rock is laughably bad.
You know what? Fuck you Sports Gods, fuck you.
by bluemax on Oct 14, 2008 8:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It was a couple hours of my life wasted/
BOOYA! You got Slurved!
by Slurvey on Oct 14, 2008 4:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hear Sherrill's going to be flipped for...
No, I’m sorry, I can’t do it.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/milb-mariners/
by JY on Oct 14, 2008 4:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Moyer trade=Resident Evil Sequel
Cuba Si! Yanqi No!
by Patrick517 on Oct 15, 2008 7:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Whatever
Bill Bavasi told me that Balentien has more upside.
by Sec 108 on Oct 14, 2008 3:51 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Let's examine that...
Wlad has nearly 200 AB less than Jones and also had only 3 AB before this year vs Jones who has nearly 200. I say he might have a bigger offensive upside than Jones. I’m waiting for Saunders and Halman to come up though they show nice promise.
BOOYA! You got Slurved!
by Slurvey on Oct 14, 2008 4:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jones is a year younger and already a decent bat in the Major Leagues
also his defensive value blows Wlad out of the water.
by Jeff on Oct 14, 2008 4:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That is why I say maybe a bigger offensive upside.
Jone had 200AB prior to this year and this is Wlad’s first year. Wlad had half the AB that Jones had too.
BOOYA! You got Slurved!
by Slurvey on Oct 14, 2008 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The way I look at it
Wlad has the higher ultimate offensive ceiling, but Jones has a higher probability of being an offensive asset.
by Jeff on Oct 14, 2008 4:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with that.
BOOYA! You got Slurved!
by Slurvey on Oct 14, 2008 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I actually think Jones has the higher *offensive* ceiling
But his chances of reaching it aren’t terribly high.
Wlad has a better chance of reaching his more modest ceiling. But yes, Jones has a higher probability of being an asset (offensive and overall).
by marc w on Oct 14, 2008 4:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jones IS an asset. Wlad isn't yet.
So in that sense, your statement’s correct, in that 100% > not 100%.
by eponymous_coward on Oct 14, 2008 4:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, clearly
That was a terrible way to phrase it.
Jones has a higher probability of improving his offensive production by, oh, 25 BRAA or so; he has a better chance of being a 20 BRAA player. His CEILING is higher than that.
Wlad has a great chance of improving, but his odds of being a true-talent 20 BRAA player aren’t as good (though again, his ceiling’s higher than 20 BRAA).
by marc w on Oct 14, 2008 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wonder, though...
… is Wlad’s ceiling REALLY higher? Jones has more young player skills (speed, hit for average, plays more challenging defensive position better), Wlad has old player ones (walks, power). Generally speaking, you want the player with young player skills (the extreme example being, say, an Derek Jeter type over an Alvin Davis type) over the one with young player skills, and Jones is the younger player performing at a better level right NOW.
by eponymous_coward on Oct 14, 2008 4:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, I keep saying that Wlad's ceiling is lower.
Jones’ ceiling includes 90% of the HR power of Wlad’s (though he hasn’t really shown a lot of that so far in the bigs), plus contact, etc.
From above: “I actually think Jones has the higher offensive ceiling”
by marc w on Oct 14, 2008 4:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess I'm not really certain either way
Wlad has more raw power, Jones has a better ability to hit for average. Wlad has more walk potential, Jones makes better contact.
I suppose ultimate ceilings are hard to define. What matters, then, is that Jones has hit a little in the Majors, and Wlad hasn’t.
by Jeff on Oct 14, 2008 4:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I also think Wlad's ceiling is hurt
by the ballpark he plays in. If I could pick a park that would make you undervalue RH pull hitters who have the potential to K a bit, it’d be Safeco (aka Cammy’s Doom).
There are a number of people who’ve dumped on our 24 year old 2B. I expect the same to happen to Wlad.
The fact that the M’s won’t fix Safeco to be a park that just screws everyone some, as opposed to being Old Yankee Stadium for RHB and a decent park for LHB (when their sum total of LHB coming through the system consists of one good-hit, bad defense C) still irritates me…
by eponymous_coward on Oct 14, 2008 4:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Really?
What’s the ceiling for both?
by eponymous_coward on Oct 14, 2008 4:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Looking back over these trades is like picking scabs
It hurts, it makes you take longer to heal and really there’s no upside, but you’re compelled to do it.
by Smegmalicious on Oct 14, 2008 4:33 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Well, it could have been worse?
Although Mickolio and Butler could pan out to be gems, both are a bit unstable as it stands right now. Mickolio will probably become a frustrating project in the bullpen, and although Butler has ample time to recover from injuries, he has an a steep hill to climb from low A ball.
Sherrill will probably end up being a missed opportunity for the Orioles. Coming off his all star game performance, the O’s should have capitalized and flipped him for at least one solid prospect. Apparently MacPhail was demanding two ML ready prospects, one preferably being a SS. I would have been ecstatic if Sherrill had been dealt for one B to B+ prospect because it was pretty easy to foresee Sherrill suffering an injury and/or severely regressing. His WHIP, ERA, BB/9 and H/9 were telltale signs that his high save number would become less appealing to other teams. He can can still be fairly useful for our club, and he has expressed his undying love for the organization, but I would have loved to have seen him traded for quality.
To be honest, Tillman straight up for Bedard is a steal in retrospect. Then again, if Bedard never dons a Seattle uniform again, Richie Sexson would have been a steal. But anyways, Tillman has really filled out well for us, he is so young and has performed so well at AA ball. He looks to pan out as a #2-3 starter, which is saying something given the amount of pitching quality currently in our system.
And lastly, to address the main point of this post. Although I don’t see Adam’s raw power translating into high big league slugging/HR numbers, I think it is inevitable that his homer total will rise into the high teens to low twenties. Additionally, he has explicitly stated that he is going to proactivly work on his base stealing ability and learn from Brian Roberts. I don’t see AJ turning into a hall of famer or anything, but I can see him being a perennial all star for the next six-seven years. I think that Ellsbury is grossly overrated, especially considering that the guy is going to be 26.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
by Baltimo on Oct 14, 2008 11:42 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Should have flipped Sherrill for a shortstop, you say?
by BrianL on Oct 14, 2008 11:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well
The Orioles have no shortstop at the ML level, and we don’t have anyone coming up even remotely soon. Any trade piece that we have is looked at as a way to potentially acquire a SS, so Sherrill did qualify.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
by Baltimo on Oct 14, 2008 11:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thank god for K-rod
If Sherrill had won Rawlings Relief Man Award I would’ve died pooping myself.
Cuba Si! Yanqi No!
by Patrick517 on Oct 15, 2008 7:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't care...We'll win the trade when Adam Jones' hip condition kicks in.
I fucking hate you Mariners
by kentroyals5 on Oct 15, 2008 1:36 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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