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Some Quick Thoughts On Wilkerson

  • Don't pay much attention to all the versatility talk - Wilkerson's being brought in to be the starting right fielder. For all intents and purposes, Adam Jones is no longer a Mariner.

  • Wilkerson's coming in on a small contract ($3m + incentives), and if we weren't the only team offering him a starting job, we were definitely one of the few. So his level of job security should be pretty low. If he's not platooned with Wlad right out of ST, it'll still be a constant possibility, and should Wlad start to tear it up then Wilkerson will probably need to flip out in order to avoid a drop in playing time. Unless the team decides to focus on his veteran status, in which case, um.

  • In his peak, Wilkerson was a strong offensive player. That peak is not coming back. What he is right now is a low-BA bat with above-average power, a patient approach, and a shit-ton of strikeouts. The left-handedness is a valuable asset, as are the walks, but he's not the kind of guy who's ever going to carry the lineup, and he's really close to the end. I'm not going to predict doom and gloom, because I think he could be decent, but if he turns into 2007 Richie Sexson, don't say you weren't warned. It's a very real possibility.

  • Defensively, he used to be all right, having logged a bunch of time in center for the Expos. But over time his body started to come apart, and at this point he's no longer a good glove. I recently called him ~average, but after going through the numbers, I think average is probably his upside. Seems to me he's more like -15 < x < -5, with 0 only attainable if he somehow stays in good health all year. He'll still probably represent a defensive improvement over Guillen, whose numbers slipped due to some lower-body issues.

I don't hate this move. I mean, I hate that it's happening because we're trading Adam Jones, but ignoring everything else, Wilkerson's okay, and might have represented the best RF still on the market. If he can stay healthy enough and take a little advantage of the right field porch, he'll have been a good find at a low price, much like Guillen a year ago. And if he sucks, then in theory we can either give him the boot or send him to the bench.

But with that said, this move is still dangerous. Wilkerson's never going to get back to his peak, but he could very possibly end up a big bag of suck, a black hole in a lineup that already has too many question marks. The benefit of this being a cheap one-year contract is that it won't kill us if we have to let him go, but this year's Mariners are going to need every win they can get, so they can ill afford to run with a problem RF for however long it takes them to get help. For our own sake, we better hope that Wlad takes some major steps forward pretty quick, just to be safe. Because the only guarantee anyone can make about Brad Wilkerson is that he's going to pile up the strikeouts. Everything else is up in the air.

The casual fan is not going to like Brad Wilkerson. Here's hoping he doesn't give us reason to agree with them.

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Wilkerson > Jones
and it's not even close.

He's been through the wars!

by PLU Tim on Jan 31, 2008 5:48 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Hmmm...
I smell a Carl Everett potential clusterphuc.  When he doesn't work out, we'll spend even MORE prospects trying to patch the hole, and let Wlad rot in AAA.  Or on the bench.  Man, if they'd only given Petagine a shot, they probably would still have Captain A-Cab as insurance for the third coming of Lopez' second-half collapse...
Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum

by PositivePaul on Jan 31, 2008 5:52 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

PETAGINE!
He made for a hilariously fun trip to Arizona to watch spring training. It's too bad we never gave him a look

by I'm NOT Corco on Jan 31, 2008 5:55 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

It's too bad
no team in MLB gave him a chance.

by MfaninAlaska on Jan 31, 2008 6:18 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't see him being Everett-bad (72 OPS+)
but I imagine that we'll be demanding a Wilk-Wlad platoon by June.

by Katal LM on Jan 31, 2008 6:33 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Hooray!
I was hoping you would say generally positive things about Wilkerson. I followed him during his Expos days and always liked him, and I'm irrationally pleased that he's a Mariner. If we're going to sign guys on the wrong side of 30, it might as well be guys on the wrong side of 30 that I like.

Call me irrational, but I have a really good feeling about this. If he hits .250 (his career average, on the nose), he'll have an OPS over over .800 - my wild prediction of 2008.

by BakedAK on Jan 31, 2008 6:36 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

SPEED HELPS
Wouldn't Patterson be a better choice?  Defense and speed much greater.  Still somewhat young (28) so perhaps his upside is greater?  

Of course the probably could use both and move Raul somewhere.  

SHOULDN"T HAVE TOOK MORE THAN YOU GAVE.

by BOGUS on Jan 31, 2008 6:57 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Sexson and Wilkerson in the same lineup
We might break the record for most k's by two teammates...yuck
I fucking hate you Mariners

by kentroyals5 on Jan 31, 2008 7:08 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Wind Power
Its all part of a plan to make Safeco run on renewable energy.  Just install turbines around the plate and no more need to pay the electric bill.

by AIS on Jan 31, 2008 8:27 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Bluegrass Brad!
He can hang out with Jeff Nelson and talk about their favorite country music?  Maybe?

by Deanna on Jan 31, 2008 7:14 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

The thing about this
is he's likely to outproduce Sexson, or at least match him and on a 1yr 3mil contract. I mean, at this point, I'll be happy with sexson having a wlkerson type year. Anyways...

by Mere Tantalisers on Jan 31, 2008 7:23 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

potential for platoon with wlad....
I know that it has been mentioned before, but Wilkerson's career platoon splits are slightly better against lefties; .800 ops against rhp, and .819 ops against lhp.  And looking year to year at his splits, '06 is the only season where his platoon splits favored rhp.  2006 was also his worst year offensively, and his lowest amount of playing time since becoming a regular.  So while it may seem to make logical sense to have a platoon with the rightie Wlad, if Brad plays roughly like Brad, a platoon most likely wouldn't make much sense.  Assuming Wlad is on the team out of ST, a platoon of Raul and Wlad would make more sense, as Raul has not had a better ops against lhp since becoming a regular.  Also the added defense Wlad would provide over Raul would certainly help some.  And even open up the possibility that Wlad could play RF and Brad play LF on days Raul sits.
Wrad Bilkerson!

by larrybowa on Jan 31, 2008 7:23 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Let's be realistic here. The Mariners are much
too foolish to platoon a "fan favorite" like Raul
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Jan 31, 2008 7:26 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

of course not
More or less just saying what makes the most sense for an organization that cared about actually trying to put its best team on the field every day.
Wrad Bilkerson!

by larrybowa on Jan 31, 2008 7:30 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, Raul obviously makes more sense
but the team will never platoon him, and at least by having Wilkerson split time, it should (in theory) help keep him from breaking down so fast.

by Jeff on Jan 31, 2008 8:11 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't like Wilkerson
but this signing is better than other veteran pickups the past few years (Vidro, Everett) by a lot.  Its not a bad signing by itself.  I'm sad Jones is gone and I'll try not to take my bitterness out on him.

by Edgar for Pres on Jan 31, 2008 7:47 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Guillen
Guillen will be remembered as the only good deal Bavasi ever made.

by batura on Jan 31, 2008 8:42 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Not true
You forgot when Bavasi traded for Ryan Howard when he was available...

...oh wait...

by Slica on Jan 31, 2008 8:55 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Resigning Ichiro?
Resigning Putz? Signing Beltre?
"Kruger! My son tells me, your company shtinks!"-Frank Costanza.

by Coach Owens on Jan 31, 2008 9:04 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't give Bavasi credit for resignings
Personal preference - signing a player you already know is good and is already on your team doesn't seem like much of an accomplishment.

Also, Beltre was great, but I think he got Beltre for the wrong reasons (Just off an MVP year rather than amazing third baseman).

drink more? that usualy doesnt work in terms of enhancing comprehension.

by Librocrat on Jan 31, 2008 9:12 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Here's my problem:
Maybe he's a good talker and he offered a decent amount of money and he probably told/showed Ichiro that he was trying to build a winner. I get that.

But knowing Ichiro is a good player that he has to keep shows know brain power, throwing money his way shows no intelligence, and not once did he have to evaluate talent or show that he understands what the team needs. Really? Try to keep Ichiro, the best player on our team? WHY?!?!?!

So maybe he used some finesse to get him to stay and below market value, but it took no intelligence on his part to know that he needs Ichiro to stay. I equate Finesse, in this case, to Grittiness and Hustle.

drink more? that usualy doesnt work in terms of enhancing comprehension.

by Librocrat on Jan 31, 2008 11:53 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I could not do Bavasi's job
and he could not do mine.  I just wish he did his better.

by Edgar for Pres on Feb 1, 2008 12:06 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

So, "intelligence"
is all that matters?

Actually getting good players on the teams does not count?

Maybe he's a good talker. That is also a plus.

visiting A's fan.

by rfloh on Feb 1, 2008 12:39 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Again
As I said. He didn't get the good player here. The good player already was here, and it doesn't take a competent GM to realize he needs to convince Ichiro to stay.
drink more? that usualy doesnt work in terms of enhancing comprehension.

by Librocrat on Feb 1, 2008 4:31 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

He' made a couple of nice trades
Hansen for Huber.  Aaron Taylor for Sean Green.

The Garcia deal (enough though it hasn't worked out they way we thought it would)

good FA deals:

re-signing Ichiro was pretty awesome
Johjima
Beltre
Batista

LET WLAD BAT!!!!

by MFAN on Jan 31, 2008 9:16 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Betancourt
Both the initial signing and then the cheap long-term deal.

by G_ on Jan 31, 2008 10:38 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

THE CARLOS GUILLEN TRADE SUCKED11!!1!
//Oh, you meant Jose...
Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum

by PositivePaul on Jan 31, 2008 9:22 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I thought about that
but didn't feel like giving the man credit for him after he let him walk this year.

by Edgar for Pres on Jan 31, 2008 11:05 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Baltimore Sun
Now saying it will be the 5 for 1 trade that was rumored.

That means Butler AND Tillman.

Am I the only one who rather keep Tillman than Morrow? I dont think he is better, but I feel like we are wasting Morrow.

by Slica on Jan 31, 2008 11:38 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Oh and before I get ripped
Yes it was already discussed, but I personally believed it was a 4 for 1 with the 4th/5th being an OR rather than an AND.

by Slica on Jan 31, 2008 11:40 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Morrow Maybe
wasted by being in the bullpen, but for two to three years when the M's are "trying" to make the playoffs keeping Morrow is a much better option for the team rather then keeping Tillman who probably won't be ready for MLB for another 2 years or more...

by MfaninAlaska on Jan 31, 2008 11:44 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't get it
Morrow is a pretty poor, incredibly replaceable bullpen arm. How does that help us over the next two years?

by Graham on Feb 1, 2008 1:29 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

He's pretty poor
based on one season?  He had some first year issue with walks, the rest of his numbers were pretty decent especially given his experience level.

by MfaninAlaska on Feb 1, 2008 8:10 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

A rookie striking out
9 per 9 is poor?  Wow.
Go M's

by OBF on Feb 1, 2008 9:18 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Unlike you, I look at more than K%
And then I do thinks like 'regress' numbers. You may have heard of the concept.

by Graham on Feb 1, 2008 10:23 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Wow...
I read that and had to double check to make sure I wasn't reading the USS Mariner comments instead of Lookout Landing.

by MfaninAlaska on Feb 1, 2008 10:38 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Graham's bipolar?
Now THAT'S how rumors get started.
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Feb 1, 2008 10:54 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

speaking of which
did I get mod queued over there or something?

by marc w on Feb 1, 2008 12:44 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Not that I'm aware
Give me an email with what you think's up and I'll try to sort it out.

by Graham on Feb 1, 2008 12:54 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm aware
its an easy tell.

by MfaninAlaska on Feb 1, 2008 11:31 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

By the way, for the record
Graham's right - Morrow is not much of a reliever right now. He's useful, and obviously has a high ceiling, but until he shows better command and/or development of his secondary pitches, he's not a good choice for a high-leverage role.

by Jeff on Feb 1, 2008 2:18 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

But he's still
more valueable this year and next year then Tillman, who has to improve the same thing that Morrow does.... which is what my original statement was about.

Right now Morrow is more valuable then Tillman, because Tillman is still at least 2 years away... both have good upside, both need development, Morrow however has shown he can pitch at the major league level in a full season.

by MfaninAlaska on Feb 1, 2008 3:19 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I think that makes him less valuable
Than Tillman, at least in the context of a trade. With the rotation in place for 2 years, you don't really care how close a pitcher currently is to the majors, and Morrow has more trade value than Tillman. Trading Morrow instead seems to make more sense, and might save us extra prospects.

by Graham on Feb 1, 2008 3:30 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

With the rotation set
for 2 years at least, and the bullpen already losing one member in Sherril, and the only other guy really on the cusp of being able to contribute Mickolio, makes Morrow much more of a necessity..... plus his versatility of being able to be used for multiple innings since he was stretched out this winter makes him more valuable to the club, then if you use his value in a trade.

I'd like to keep both, but if it means one or the other going in the proposed trade for Bedard Morrow has more value to the M's then Tillman does.

by MfaninAlaska on Feb 1, 2008 3:34 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Depends if you see Morrow as a useful reliever
I think he's no better than Huber or RRS or any of those guys (actually significantly worse than RRS). We could quite happily fill up 7 bullpen spots without using Morrow.

by Graham on Feb 1, 2008 3:40 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

See that's what I don't get
basically we're ready to dismiss his value as a reliever after one season of pro-ball.... not one season of ML baseball, but one season of pro-ball.

Morrow's only draw back was his walks... he was a high strikeout guy, had a low slg against, similar LD% to JJ.  The only issue he really had overall was walking guys.... is it unreasonable to believe he can improve upon that as he gets more comfortable in the majors?

by MfaninAlaska on Feb 1, 2008 3:58 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Here's the thing
Yes, there's room for improvement, but he's just not getting enough innings for things to click. There is zero room for error in a major league bullpen, which makes them pretty bad places to learn how to pitch. And as good as he is at striking out guys... he's waaaay worse for walking them.

Also, his home runs should probably jump next season.

by Graham on Feb 1, 2008 4:00 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Question, though...
Didn't his walk rate get a whole lot better the second half of the season???
Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum

by PositivePaul on Feb 1, 2008 4:03 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah
Note that that coincides with home runs happening and a jump in both FB% and SLG.

Instead of trying to hit the corners he was just gunning pitches down the heart of the plate. That's not really very helpful either, because then people smack the pitch.

by Graham on Feb 1, 2008 4:08 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Hmmm.
Reminds me a ton of Raffey Soriano...
Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum

by PositivePaul on Feb 1, 2008 4:19 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Young Raffey, I meant...
Second-half-of-07 Morrow is more like Julio Mateo, but maybe not quite so bad.  

At this point, Morrow's upside in the M's 'pen is Soriano -- that's how I see it.  

Ill Ligitamus Non Carberendum

by PositivePaul on Feb 1, 2008 4:35 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Before Soriano's last year
with the M's, there were a ton of discussions on him converting to a starter, and the overall impression was he wouldn't make a decent starter because he was a one pitch pitcher that would occasionally use a show me slider that was relatively flat with little bite.

Did I miss some massive improvement in his pitches?

by MfaninAlaska on Feb 1, 2008 4:43 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Unless I misremember
Rafael Soriano had a pretty good slider while he was with us.

by Graham on Feb 1, 2008 4:46 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't know about the quality of it
I know he threw one now and then... but I do know whenever talk of him being converted back to a starter came up, he was a one pitch pitcher...

by MfaninAlaska on Feb 1, 2008 4:53 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe the first time around that was the case
I think the consensus after he came back for 2006 was that he was just too fragile to run out as a starter.

by Graham on Feb 1, 2008 4:56 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Isn't the lack of innings
one of the reason he went to winterball to improve his secondary pitches and work on his command?

by MfaninAlaska on Feb 1, 2008 4:11 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah
if that experience really helped him make an improvement, then the tune will change. But all we have to go on right now is what Morrow did in 2007, and that wasn't real great.

by Jeff on Feb 1, 2008 4:12 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Shut up Graham
he did good for his first yera.  Huber and RRS <<< Morrow in the long run cause they are pussies and can't throw hard.  Morrow can learn control.  Its almost impossible to gain talent.  Morrow is interesting and fun to watch.  I dream of a Morrow/Lowe/Putz bullpen.  You're stupid and need to consider this comment more before posting.

by Edgar for Pres on Feb 2, 2008 3:37 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Haha
I love you too dude.

by Graham on Feb 2, 2008 3:51 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

and really drunk if that wasn't clear
but really, I think Morrow could turn into a very nice relief pitcher.  Its not as valuable as a SP and the front office is stupid but Morrow's stuff is nasty if he could figure out where it was going.  Since he is so young, I would expect some improvement in his command.  Its not like he has to improve that much to become very effective.  His fastball is pretty unhittable.  He just needs to bring down the walk rate and try not to throw it down the middle too much.  All his other pitches are works in progress and I'd like to give him some time in AAA to work on it (even if he was going to be a career RP) but I think he just needs one mediocre offering to pair with is fastball.

by Edgar for Pres on Feb 2, 2008 2:51 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Wrong
Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Feb 2, 2008 1:06 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

It might make more sense to put Morrow in AAA
where he can learn to be a SP and trade Tillman.  Well maybe, its probably close.  I also bet the trade value of Tillman and Morrow is actually pretty comparable.

by Edgar for Pres on Feb 2, 2008 2:44 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Morrow's more valuable to the ML team
but I think in an overall sense we have more to lose by trading Tillman than we do by trading Morrow, and for that reason I don't understand the whole "Morrow's untouchable" stance being taken by the front office. It'd be one thing if I had confidence that they'll try to develop him as a starter sometime soon, but I don't, so I wouldn't be opposed to dealing him away for something shiny at a different position.

by Jeff on Feb 1, 2008 3:43 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Is it my imagination or
Does Wilk look like a carbon copy of a player eveyone was drooling over (and slobbing Beanes cock over)...Jack Cust.

Both are TTO players who are going to walk some, strike out a ton and hit a bunch of bombs.  In fact if he stays healthy Wilk is probably the beter defender and might have a tick more power.  Put me in the category of liking this move, with or without a Bedard trade (for the record I am hoping for the trade to be consummated).

Go M's

by OBF on Feb 1, 2008 9:22 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Thing is,
Wilkerson even in his best year, 119 OPS+, was nowhere close to the season Cust had last year, 147 OPS+. Not even close. Yes, Cust is almost certain to regress, there's no way that Cust's "true talent" on contact slugging is 861.

Wilkerson is certainly the better defender. But more power? Wilkerson's career on contact SLG: 644. His on contact SLG from 2002-2004, his best years, 679

Cust career on contact SLG, in a smaller sample, yes, 807.

visiting A's fan.

by rfloh on Feb 1, 2008 1:42 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I'd like to
pre-emptively nominate any sentence that contains "slobbing beane's cock" for a dead meme, please.
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Feb 1, 2008 1:57 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

accessible knob bong
Oh, wait, we banned those too.
drink more? that usualy doesnt work in terms of enhancing comprehension.

by Librocrat on Feb 1, 2008 2:00 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Win(ner)
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Feb 1, 2008 2:03 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

So....to recap while I was gone...
1.We traded Jones and stuff for Bedard.
2.We haven't trade Jones and stuff for Bedard.
3.We traded Jones and stuff for Bedard.
4.The Twins traded Santana to the Mets for....not a whole hell of a lot.
4.Jones has a bad hip.
5.We haven't trade Jones and stuff for Bedard.
6.We signed Wilkerson to a 1 year $3M contract.
7.Jones doesn't have a bad hip.
8.We traded Jones and stuff for Bedard.
9.Santana signs a 7 year-$150.75 extension with the Mets.
10.We haven't traded Jones and stuff for Bedard.

Am I missing anything?

These pretzels....are making me thirsty!

by Goose on Feb 1, 2008 8:46 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Yes you did
We traded Adam Jones and stuff for Eric Bedard.
We didnt trade Adam Jones and stuff for Eric Bedard.
Jeff hates the name Jeffrey, I dont blame him.
Peter Angelos denied the trade.
Peter Angelos does not deny the trade.
Peter Angelos was in the hospital.
Peter Angelos has ego issues.
And Psych's spanish theme song from last week is better than the english one.

by Slica on Feb 1, 2008 9:13 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I missed last week's.
Going to watch today's though. Thankfully it is on again at 1.
drink more? that usualy doesnt work in terms of enhancing comprehension.

by Librocrat on Feb 1, 2008 11:58 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

One thing
The Orioles want George Sherill so that he can be flipped to the Braves for Brent Lillibridge.  That's why the Orioles want George Sherill.

by ThundaPC on Feb 3, 2008 2:36 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Imagine if this actually happens.
After all that we have said, hehe.
And to think, I could have chosen to support the Yankees or Red Sox...

by EnglishMariner on Feb 3, 2008 2:30 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Shoulder, knee, hammy...
I know it's a long time since August, 2006, but Wilkerson didn't really look right all last year after the shoulder surgery he had back then, with the knee and hamstring injuries keeping him from (or at least not helping him with) getting into a groove.  That showed up - among other ways - in a .271 BABIP for a guy who's had a .314 career BABIP.  For a measly 3-5 mil, he could turn into a steal.  

I like the closing comment of, "The casual fan is not going to like Brad Wilkerson. Here's hoping he doesn't give us reason to agree with them."  Well put! :)

by BobbyMac on Feb 2, 2008 9:42 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Unrelated
but why is a Larry the Cable Guy movie being advertised here? And why is there another one?
When life gives you scurvy, make lemonade.

by Mariner John on Feb 2, 2008 11:16 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

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