about Guillen facing lefties.

But you weren't.  Wow.

I was really hoping to see the numbers for off-speed, low and away for King Awesome.

They would certainly be awesome.

Okay, so the numbers aren't that easy to get out of the tool, but here's the picture-- its pretty funny (against right-handed for full breaking awesomeness):

http://baseball.bornbybits.com/php/combined_tool.php?pit=0&bat=134181&type=2&result=-1&a mp;count=-1&r_spd=1&spd=-1&r_brx=1&brx=-100&r_brz=1&brz=-100&l_b=0

How sustainable is Vidro's BABIP?  Thats basically what he is going to live or die by next year.  As a younger player he consistant put up around a BABIP of .330.  It declined as he aged probably because he slowed down and couldn't get as many infield singles (no evidence).

The only way I see him being a decent hitter next year is if he can sustain a high BA because I don't see his SLG increasing.  The BABIP he had last year (.342) was higher than I thought he'd have.  This could all just be luck.  Maybe, just maybe it might be sustainable though.  Once again, maybe...just maybe moving to DH and sacrificing all your power in an attempt to consistantly hit singles has allowed him to increase his BABIP.

I see two options for him next year.  His BABIP regresses back to around .310 maybe which is much more realistic based on his past experience or he really has improved somehow and his past BABIP is sustainable.  I'm guessing his power isn't coming back no matter what but it also can't go down much more which is good i guess.

(Using last year's numbers and varying BABIP also...numbers are approximate)
W/ BABIP of .280
.251/.328/.331
W/ BABIP of .310
.278/.352/.358
W/ BABIP of .360
.323/.392/.403

.290/.360/.370 I'm guessing we aren't happy with that right?  I mean its not horrible but its not helping much.  The big thing that worries me is that he screams as a guy who could udderly collapse and hit .240/.280/.300.

Personally, I think Vidro's decline wasn't in any way "age" related.  I think the season without a home, followed by two seasons in RFK, (while hurt), were the easy-to-see external causes for Vidro's 'decline'.

I think it is reasonable to assume that he was increasingly unhappy with his previous org, and that likely showed up in his numbers.  I think ANY change of scenary would've created a Vidro bounce.

As to his BABIP - the .337 is certainly above standard expectation.  But, let's take a look at the trend line for the difference between Vidro's BA and his BABIP.

Starting in '99 - going to present.
15, 9, 11, 15, 8, 6, 8, 19, 23

2007 marked a highwater mark not only for BABIP, but also, the single largest skew between BA and BABIP in his career.  The career look says that only one thing has changed for Vidro, really - and that's his power.  In Montreal, during his peak days, he managed a 51-2B + 24-HR season, and another 43/19 season, with his final full season netting 36/15.  In 2007, he netted 26/6 with the Ms.

Simply put, he's not hitting the ball quite as hard.  But, his K and BB numbers remain pretty solid, (2007 was only his 2nd season ever with a signifant edge in BB to Ks).  

My own belief is that Vidro has (to a degree), become an Ichiro disciple.  When he was at his peak, he was walking less and whiffing more.  So, I would read into the stats that he's altered his "approach", which costs him power, but likely buffs his BABIP average slightly.

I think .315-.320 BABIP is the reasonable projection.  But I would also expect some regression in his BA/BABIP difference, probably in the 14-18 range, meaning a .300 average is doable.

.300/.367/.393 would be my projection.

The arena I think there is room for potential gain is in power.  In his final season in Washington, his 2B/HR numbers were nearly identical to his 2007 Seattle numbers (but in 80 fewer at bats).  I'm thinking he's still got the potential to hit low-30 doubles and 10-HRs.

I wouldn't peg him to get 50 XBHs, but breaking 40 is definitely feasible, and if this happens, his slugging likely breaks .400 again.

While I take second half split data with a grain of salt, Vidro hit 16 doubles in the second half of 2007, and his isolated power jumped from 63 to 101.  While I have no illusions that the 160 ISO will return, I'm thinking he can still post 100+ isolated power numbers - even in Safeco.

is that we should probably expect Ichiro's BA/OBP/SLG to drop about 20-30 pts next year which will hurt the offense a fair amount.