FanPost

Statistician Request

Tonight I've been hammering away at Excel trying to figure out our chances of winning the division based on different Pythagorean records. The key word being "trying". I stopped after about an hour when I realized that I was clearly doing something wrong, and I didn't know what.

So here's what I want to know - what are the Mariners' chances of winning (or, if it's easier, tying for) the AL West if their final Pythagorean record is (1) 5 wins worse than that of the Angels, (2) 4 wins worse, (3) 3 wins worse, (4) 2 wins worse, (5) 1 win worse, and (6) equal?

The most important bit of information you'll need to figure this out is that the Pythagorean standard deviation is 0.026440 (4.28 games per 162). I worked with that for a while, but subsequently got lost in my own spreadsheet, and decided to give up.

If anyone out there feels like taking this on, I'd greatly appreciate the help. I'm very interested in the results, and they'd be highly relevant to the current debate.

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