Guillen vs. Fukudome
Well, now that the season's over, it is never too early to start chatting about the offseason.
It seems like most people are pretty comfortable with the assumption that Guillen will be back next year. He is supposedly looking for a multi-year deal, with Eric Byrnes' recent contract as a guide for what he may be looking for. The negotiations are going to be starting around 3yrs/30mil, and 4 years, at over $10 mil per is a real option.
I thought that Guillen was a solid pickup by Bavasi, but I think the M's should seriously consider other options.
In my opinion, the most interesting alternative is Japanese RFer Kosuke Fukudome.
I like the idea of going after Fukudome instead of Guillen for several reasons. One, Fukudome gives you pretty much everything Guillen does: good RF defense, an excellent arm, solid bat, and slightly above average power. However, Fukudome gives you a lot of things Guillen doesn't: a lefty bat, excellent plate discipline, and more speed. The lefthandedness and ability to get on base are the biggest factors. All the scouting reports on Fukudome talk about how he has a very new-school, US approach at the plate, and draws a ton of walks. More Hideki Matsui than Ichiro. He probably won't hit 30+ HRs, but he will likely hit 20 or so, with a lot of doubles and a great OBP.
All in all, he sounds like a Bobby Abreu or JD Drew type player. He also gets plus grades for athleticism and defense, so sticking him in RF would probably be a slight upgrade at least.
Nobody is talking about Fukudome right now because he had surgery to remove bone fragments from his elbow and missed a much of the second half of the season. However, this is actually a good thing for the M's. His elbow injury is less serious than Guillen's last offseason, and will help keep his price down. He is projected to be ready by the opening of spring training, no problem.
Even if Fukudome costs a bit more, I think the M's should pursue this guy aggressively. He fits perfectly with what this club needs: walks, lefty bat, and good OF defense. Plus, he won't cost the club a draft pick.
This is a no-brainer to me.
0 recs |
84 comments
Comments
He's a free agent, right?
by Nick S on Sep 30, 2007 4:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
What concerns me about Fukudome
However, it's not like we have a much better option. I'm not optimistic that Guillen will do as well next season, and I'd take Fukudome for one year over Guillen for three. I'd probably like Fukudome more if we kept Wlad in the system as a Plan B.
by Double06 on Sep 30, 2007 4:31 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Well.
That doesn't exactly make him lightyears better than Guillen. Guillen doesn't walk, but add in his HBPs and he DID post a .353 OBP this year.
I think the difference would be that Fukudome might be better defensively.
by eponymous coward on Sep 30, 2007 4:51 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I would take a LH version of Guillen
by Matthew on Sep 30, 2007 4:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Certainly.
by Double06 on Sep 30, 2007 4:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right...
by eponymous coward on Sep 30, 2007 6:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
by Matthew on Sep 30, 2007 8:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is lineup balance that meaningful?
Or, hell, they could FIX THE FUCKING FENCES AT SAFECO so their right handed hitters aren't automatically screwed and their lefty hitters look better.
by eponymous coward on Oct 1, 2007 12:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm just saying that if you have
It's really hard to have too many LH bats in your lineup.
by Matthew on Oct 1, 2007 2:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why?
Yes, I can understand platoon splits- but the idea is the platoon splits MAKE LHB better hitters as a group than RHB (lefties as a group will hit righties better than righties do, and while it's reversed for LHP, since there are more RHP than LHP, as a group, LHB would do better).
We're discussing two equivalent hitters independent of platoon splits, though, so the performance in aggregate should be a wash.
by eponymous coward on Oct 1, 2007 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
scarcity
by Matthew on Oct 1, 2007 3:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right...
I'm saying "why does it matter what hand they hit with if the net performance is identical"?
by eponymous coward on Oct 1, 2007 6:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
uhhh, for the reason I just said, scarcity
by Matthew on Oct 1, 2007 6:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK...
I have one that's not scarce that goes 0-60 in 5 seconds as well.
So if the point is to go 0-60 as fast as possible, why do I care if it's scarce or not?
You're focussing on handedness. I'm focussing on performance.
by eponymous coward on Oct 1, 2007 9:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Platoon advantage
So even if they're both true .350/.450 hitters the LH is better because the pitching he'll face is likely to be worse.
by Trev on Oct 1, 2007 9:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's true
If you had a choice between Jose Guillen in 2008 who will put up, in SafeCo a .350/.450 line or Fukudome who will put up in SafeCo a .350/.450 line, you take Fukudome everytime.
by Matthew on Oct 1, 2007 10:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
because you have to own 9 cars
by Matthew on Oct 1, 2007 10:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
No.
I think the OFFENSIVE differences between Fukudome and Guillen aren't going to be real big either way, and they are basically comparable at the plate, even boiling off the LHB/RHB difference. So it all comes down to a) baserunning and b) defense. If Fukudome projects as a more credible defender and you could get him on a deal comparable to Johjima's (3/18, though with inflation it's probably more like 3/21), I'd pick him easily over Guillen, who's likely at 3/33 or something like that and is a sub-par defender who oles at too many balls for my taste.
by eponymous coward on Oct 2, 2007 5:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also...
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?lg=ML&team=TOT&year=2007
RHB: .268/.331/.420
LHB: .269/.343/.426
However, if a particular RHB == a particular LHB in performance, then it's meaningless which one you have.
by eponymous coward on Oct 2, 2007 5:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
no, it's still not
by Matthew on Oct 2, 2007 6:15 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Again
Wlad's the only MLB baseball player from Willemstad. Let's say I find another OF who will perform in a similar fashion to him from San Pedro de Macoris in the DR (where there are a ton of MLB players). Is Wlad more valuable because there are less MLB players from Willemstad? No- both players have the same value because we're concerned about player performance levels, not where they were born,
Now, substitute "LHB" and "RHB" through that discussion. I don't care about scarcity of a particular skill (LHB vs. RHB) if the net result between the two players, in terms of performance, is functionally identical performance (now, you COULD argue Fukudome will be a BETTER hitter because he's LH- but that's not what I'm arguing; I'm arguing he and Guillen are going to be peas in a pod). It's like caring about two mechanically identical cars that are racing because one's the only model of its kind painted blue. If one had a spoiler and things to make it race better, than SURE, I care- but a difference between two players that makes no difference in offensive performance is irrelevant to me.
by eponymous coward on Oct 3, 2007 10:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It appears that you are looking at this in
If you get the chance to acquire a LHB, you do it because, it being rarer, it gives you more flexibility in your other roster decisions. Adding a LHB to RF means you can now remove Vidro or Ibanez from the lineup and not effect the overall handedness of your lineup. Those are important things.
by Matthew on Oct 3, 2007 4:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
There's a 70 point OPS difference
by Graham on Oct 1, 2007 1:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right...
So, it's still a push that depends on defense.
by eponymous coward on Oct 1, 2007 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree
You project Fukudome as a .350/.450 hitter, which would be park neutral.
Now can we see how a .350/.450 left hander does at Safeco? I think Ibanez's 3-year splits from 2004-2006 should be a decent sample size, and he was .341/.459 away over that time, making him a great proxy for Fukudome. Anyway, at home he got boosted by +27 OBP, +34 SLG, so let's apply that to Fukudome's expected stats.
So we have:
H: .377/.484, A: .350/.450 (Fukudome)
and now Guillen's 2007 numbers...
H: .342/.433, A: .363/.485 (Guillen)
Taking the average by just assuming equal time H/A...
F: .364/.467/.831
G: .353/.459/.812
That's not exactly a push. The fact that Guillen's actually a better hitter in your projection is killed by Safeco Field's weirdness.
by Graham on Oct 1, 2007 12:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't agree.
by eponymous coward on Oct 1, 2007 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you have generic LH splits for Safeco
by Graham on Oct 1, 2007 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Safeco Park Factors
(all for 2004-2006)
Total LHP RHP
Avg 94 96 92
HR 93 101 88
by Trev on Oct 1, 2007 10:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That doesn't tell you much about
by Graham on Oct 2, 2007 12:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
the park
You are operating on the assumption that Fukudome and Guillen are exactly equal players, which is anything but a safe assumption.
Guillen is the type of guy who has trouble at Safeco. Fukudome isn't. Simple as that.
by Jerry on Oct 1, 2007 6:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why would I pick that player?
"You are operating on the assumption that Fukudome and Guillen are exactly equal players, which is anything but a safe assumption."
Yeah: Fukudome could flop horribly coming to MLB. Guillen could blow out an ankle again. And so on.
So, how would YOU evaluate Fukudome?
And don't try and seriously argue Fukudome's power won't take a big hit; we've seen it happen with pretty much every J League premier hitter who's come over (Ichiro, Hideki Matsui, Johjima and so on). Once that happens, you'll see walks go down, too. I don't think projecting .350/.450 is being very unreasonable- and Guillen, when healthy the last few years, has posted the following OBP/SLG numbers:
.359/.569
.352/.497
.338/.479
.353/.460
You can make an argument that Guillen's actually a .350/.480 player. Hideki Matsui's lifetime SLG in MLB, BTW, is .485.
by eponymous coward on Oct 3, 2007 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, and:
.304/.582/.413
Fukudome's through 2006:
.306/.545/.393
Unless there are just ridiculous park factors involved, Matsui > Fukudome as a hitter.
Oh, and here's Joh:
.299/.517/.360
by eponymous coward on Oct 3, 2007 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
conversions
You seem to be assuming that this projection is a near certainty, when these things are anything but.
At the most basic level, most people say that the leve of competition in Japanese baseball is a bit higher than AAA.
Wouldn't you take a guy who has raked at AAA? I know that power often doesn't transfer as well as other tools when players go between Japan and MLB, but Fukudome's most important tool is plate discipline.
Which brings us to another issue. We really haven't seen too many hitters cross over at all, and very few have had a similar approach to Fukudome. I would imagine that guys with a US approach would have less trouble here than more aggressive hitters like Johjima, little Matsui, and that 3B who bombed in NY. But I don't really have any data to back that up with.
by Jerry on Oct 1, 2007 6:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ummm
I ♥ Nori, even if he kicked my Morino out of third base yet again.
by Deanna on Oct 1, 2007 7:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would never talk up a player
by Matthew on Sep 30, 2007 4:53 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Hey now
by Robert on Sep 30, 2007 10:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
ha
by MarinerintheDistrict on Oct 1, 2007 2:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Definitely go for it.
by Rollo Tomasi on Sep 30, 2007 5:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
If we let Guillen go
It seems to me that could be a deal-breaker.
by Fett42 on Sep 30, 2007 5:31 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't believe so.
by Jeff Sullivan on Sep 30, 2007 5:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
we could certainly exercise his team option
by Matthew on Sep 30, 2007 5:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't get why we don't offer him the option.
by SethGrandpa on Sep 30, 2007 5:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If it means we get compensation if he opts out
by Jeff Sullivan on Sep 30, 2007 5:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If those are the M's options
by Gomez on Sep 30, 2007 7:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Please dear God no long deal
But that's just me, y'all are much more intelligent and knowledgable. I know it can't be quantified, and it's highly speculative, but I just want to say it. This team wasn't that much better on paper than in previous years. Was it luck that got us so far? I think not. If Guillen's attitude affected the teams outlook and morale, and had an effect in how they played, then that must be considered. I still think the organization needs to be douched out.
Fukudome would be more attractive than Guillen, if we could get a 1-year deal. He can save Wlad's spot.
by spittle8 on Sep 30, 2007 8:00 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I'd sign Fukudome in a heartbeat.
Considering how badly the M's want to go with the status quo, since they were soooooo cloooooose to making the playoffs, they're only going to want to change a few things. Considering, too, how much they like Guillen and see him as an integral part of this team, they're not going to be quick to get rid of him. Especially since they value his clubhouse leadership at least equally as much as they value his performance.
Replacing Guillen with Fukudome makes too much sense, so plan on the M's doing exactly the opposite.
I'm thinking Guillen will be given 3/36 with an option for a fourth year. The M's are that stupid...
by PositivePaul on Sep 30, 2007 8:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
NO! WE NEED HIM HERE!
Also, putting Fukudome in the AL means he'll be exposed to his greatest arch-nemesis: Hideki Okajima.
(just kidding -- you had to have seen last year's Japan Series to get that one)
by Deanna on Sep 30, 2007 9:49 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Oh, I know guys
And signing Fukodome is only going to hinder Wlad playing for us two years from now. Then again, there is always that pesky 'he will be traded' possibility.
by Slica on Oct 1, 2007 3:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wlad dropped off quite a bit in the 2nd half
But yeah, Bavasi will probably trade him.
by G_ on Oct 1, 2007 9:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is not a problem...
This IS a problem if what comes back is veteran pitcher who is just entering his decline phase.
What's more likely with this bunch of fools (and that includes the people around and above the GM position)?
by rtang on Oct 1, 2007 9:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wlad's peripherals
by Matthew on Oct 1, 2007 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep
by Jeff Sullivan on Oct 1, 2007 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He only played 10 games after getting hurt
His final numbers are probably closer to his true talent level, which are still pretty good, but just not "this guy has nothting left to learn in AAA" good.
by G_ on Oct 1, 2007 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think what Matthew is getting at is this:
July-End: 21.6% LD%, 1.22 GB/FB, 4.6 AB/K
by Jeff Sullivan on Oct 1, 2007 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The walk rate slipped
July-End: 12.3 AB/BB (8.1 BB%)
If you take a step back, look at his numbers in 2006 (AA) and 2007 (AAA):
- 230/337/435 (13.4 BB%, 26.8 K%, 284 BABIP)
- 291/360/509 (10.4 BB%, 19.2 K%, 330 BABIP)
Given all this, I think it is reasonable to give him a couple more months in AAA to confirm that he can sustain his progress and to cement the improvements he has made to his approach at the plate.
by G_ on Oct 1, 2007 1:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
overall agree
by Matthew on Oct 1, 2007 2:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
"a little high"
Using expected BABIP (LD% + .120) and Balentien's 19% LD% (per First Inning), his expected BABIP would be .310, so "a little high" is a fair description of his .330 actual BABIP.
by G_ on Oct 1, 2007 2:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
For the record
by Jeff Sullivan on Oct 1, 2007 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
it doesn't extend
I'm not sure how Wlad ends up with a 19% LD rate when Jeff lists each split as higher. Jeff, where did your LD% numbers come from?
by Matthew on Oct 1, 2007 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
MinorLeagueSplits
by Jeff Sullivan on Oct 1, 2007 10:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
also, it wont matter
by Matthew on Oct 1, 2007 2:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I guess I'm in the minority
He's a good hitter, a real good hitter away from safeco, he fields reasonably well, and there's good reason to think he'll be faster next year than this year.
But that's not why I want him signed. His slides into second base is the reason I want him signed. The guy wants to win as much as anyone I've ever seen, and shows he it more. I'm not making an appeal to team chemistry here, but having a guy who takes the legs out from opposing second basemen and tells the press he wants to kill every Angel player is a guy I like to have around.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Oct 1, 2007 8:07 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Properly...
That's what some fans forget...you want the OPS/fielding AND this hard nosed attitude. The latter doesn't substitute for the former.
by rtang on Oct 1, 2007 8:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Guillen would be fine
by G_ on Oct 1, 2007 9:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't agree about 'he fields reasonably well'
FWIW, Guillen's UZRs in 2007 were about the same as Raul in 2006.
by eponymous coward on Oct 2, 2007 5:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Guillen IMO is a bit slow for OF
by Gomez on Oct 2, 2007 10:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What happens if Fukudome faces Ho?
or the Twins?
by Patrick517 on Oct 1, 2007 9:33 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
LOLOLOLOLOL
GOTTA HAVE THAT FUK (UH)
WE NEED THE FUK
by Gomez on Oct 1, 2007 10:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A Vietnamese man-lady
by Rollo Tomasi on Oct 1, 2007 2:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well its confirmed
So Wladimir Balentien will be shipped to Colorado for LaTroy Hawkins this offseason.
by Slica on Oct 2, 2007 3:49 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Everybody remember
Now suddenly, saying that a reliever has been through wars is perfectly okay? What the fuck.
Get your damn sanctimony straight. Either making analogies to war and death is okay or it's not.
by Gomez on Oct 2, 2007 9:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

by 













