WHEN Bavasi gets fired
So, when Bavasi gets fired, do you think the Mariners will learn their lesson and go after an intelligent statistic minded GM, or will they continue to sign Bavasi 2.0? This is just something I've been thinking about recently, I'm wondering what you guys think.
So, when Bavasi gets fired, do you think the Mariners will learn their lesson and go after an intelligent statistic minded GM, or will they continue to sign Bavasi 2.0? This is just something I've been thinking about recently, I'm wondering what you guys think.
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I have said in the past
What's with all the Bavasi hatred?
For all the crap he takes around here, I want to know exactly what he did that was so bad for this franchise?
by John Morgan on Jul 28, 2007 12:37 PM PDT reply actions
Sexson was a bad contract,
Meanwhile, the farm is much stronger. Felix has been protected. Adrian Beltre is quietly very valuable. Putz is locked up to a great contract. Ichiro resigned. Guillen was a great value signing...
And the Seattle Mariners franchise, left for dead after Gillick left the team old and barren of talent, is in the playoff hunt.
by John Morgan on Jul 28, 2007 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree completely
Went to the game today... had a good time despite the lack of M's baserunners. M's are back to some winning baseball and it was great to see some timely longballs by some slumping hitters.
Also:
Amazed to see M-Lo put into a pressure situation that soon.
Reitsma needs to go.
HoRam pitched terribly but put up a "quality start". Amazing.
JJ is an absolute gladiator. I think fans should start giving a thumbs down and shouting "finish him" when he gets to 2 strikes.
No
VORP is a terrible way to evaluate pitchers, and comparing a bad move to other bad moves isn't a great idea at any rate. Also, the main reason it's debatable whether or not Morrow will ever start is because of the way he's been handled this year, which is the FO's fault, nobody else's.
The Soriano/Ramirez trade was completely senseless. Not only did he misjudge Ho's ability, he completely missed on Soriano's value as well.
Bavasi's not the worst GM in the league, and he's improved the team, but he's done less with what he has available than we should be expecting. I don't think Bavasi deserves as much hate as he gets, but trying to defend him with this sort of argument is ludicrous.
How, precisely, is the Sexson contract a disaster?
Why is VORP a terrible way to evaluate a pitcher? It may not have ton of predicative value, but it does give a good idea as to the amount of value a pitcher contributed to his team. I didn't compare Washburn to other bad signings, I compared him to his own free agent class. Considering his contract and the contracts of the other two free agents in his class of his ilk, he's been the best.
Bavasi botched the Soriano trade, but it wasn't senseless. Bavasi correctly evaluated that relief pitchers are fungible, and that most have a short shelf life. Soriano, an oft-injured setup man, frankly, didn't/doesn't have much trade value.
Morrow has one pitch--a fastball that loses 5 ticks when he starts. His destiny is not in the bullpen because he was rushed, but because he doesn't have the repertoire to last more than a couple of innings without getting shelled. If Morrow someday is able to hold his velocity for more than three innings, develops a MLB caliber second, much less third, pitch, then he, like Shaun Marcum or Braden Looper, can work his way into the rotation. Nothing he's done this year precludes him from one day being a starter--if anything, he, like Soriano, is simply not capable of being a starter.
I understand and respect meaningful criticism of Bavasi or any GM, but ragging on him every time something doesn't get done exactly how you'd like gets to be a tired shtick pretty quick. Every GM makes mistakes. We understand a thin fraction of what Bavasi does and why he does what he does. What we can expect him to do is something almost impossible to define. Bavasi has bosses that have input about things like resigning Bloomers, signing local boy Richie Sexson or retaining "face of the franchise" Ibanez. It's easy for us to say: Platoon Guillen, DFA Ibanez--but how do you sell that to the players? The local media? Howard Lincoln? How does Bavasi dictate controversial orders when he has an interim manager? Nothing he does happens in a vacuum the way our opining does.
Brass tacks, Bavasi has improved the Seattle Mariners. Seattle has a good young core, and I'm bewildered to be writing this, but a promising future. As a fan, I don't expect more.
by John Morgan on Jul 29, 2007 12:46 AM PDT up reply actions
Umm...
by SethGrandpa on Jul 29, 2007 12:55 AM PDT up reply actions
probably depens a persons defintion of disastrous
When I hear disastrous, I think of a player that has a big contract and completely sucked while on the team. Richie was good in 2006 and awesome in 2005.
Think of it like this
This means that revenue will look more or less like a step function when compared to wins, meaning that you should invest to take your team over certain win numbers so you jump tiers. I'm grossly oversimplifying this, but it's close enough. Richie Sexson simply hasn't done that, and now that the team has jumped up of its own accord, his contract is dragging us back. It's a failed investment.
In order
$13 million per year for a guy who fell off the face of the planet at the beginning of year 3 is a disaster. Sexson can't play defence and he can't hit. Sure, he had a fantastic first year and a decent second one, both of which amounted to nothing because the team core sucked. And now the team's maturing around him, he's collapsing. Yay.
"Vidro isn't blocking anyone at DH... The money Seattle is spending on Vidro is piffle."
Vidro is blocking Ibanez's move to DH, which is blocking Adam Jones's move to LF. 8 million dollars is certainly not piffle - it's well over half the difference between Raul Ibanez and Carlos Beltran. Make moves like that constantly and your team is screwed.
"We talk about millions and think of our own lives."
Speak for yourself. I happily divorce myself from my own life when thinking about economics.
"Vidro plays, Snelling rehabs."
The problem with the Vidro trade isn't really the trade itself, it's the inability to recognise freely available talent at DH and grab it rather than spend prospects and money on an inferior product: At least when Snelling went down this year we'd have been able to replace him for free.
"Why is VORP a terrible way to evaluate a pitcher?"
VORP overrates durable mediocrity to the point it's almost scary. They almost certainly have replacement level calibrated wrong. In addition, since it's a BP stat, defence isn't filtered out properly. You'd probably be better off looking at ERA+ * innings pitched.
"I didn't compare Washburn to other bad signings, I compared him to his own free agent class."
Comparing Washburn to other bad signings is the same thing as comparing him to other free agent deals that year. It was a terrible class and sensible GMs stayed away from it. It's a shame none of our vaunted pitching prospects developed, because having to fill holes in the rotation with free agents is a hard job.
"Soriano, an oft-injured setup man, frankly, didn't/doesn't have much trade value."
You're dead wrong here. He was traded because he had a cold when the M's scouted one of his winter ball starts, and front offices around baseball were horrified about how little it took to get him.
"Morrow has one pitch--a fastball that loses 5 ticks when he starts."
His fastball was down at the end of last year because he was tired, not because he was starting. I seem to recall him hitting mid-90s at Berkeley. He also has a decent splitter and a mediocre slider, and even if he didn't have any other pitchers, the best way to develop them is to start in the minors. Morrow needs to improve his command and develop a changeup, not sit in the big league pen throwing unhittable fastballs at random. Relievers (not relief aces) are fungible.
"Nothing he does happens in a vacuum the way our opining does."
This I agree with you on. I think a decent defense of Bavasi as a GM could be made, but certain moves are completely indefensible. Your point that there are factors going on behind the scenes is a completely valid one, and I do believe that Bavasi is doing OK given his constraints. That's still not an excuse for some of the debacles that have occured on his watch.
Sexson was a bright spot when the team was awful.
And that's where we are at loggerheads. I feel like you are hyperbolizing Bavasi's failures and downplaying his successes. We could quibble about the proper evaluation of replacement level or exactly what freely available talent was, in fact, available this last off-season--subjects that I doubt either of us is truly qualified or committed enough to do justice--until daybreak (or, I guess, nightfall, in your case) but we'll end up nowhere.
Here's the thing, though, when you say:
You are telling me that you're willing to buy into a far flung rumor to confirm your belief that Bavasi is a boob. Instead of believing that the fact that, to quote Dave Cameron, "I believe that it's only a matter of time until [Soriano] needs surgery on his arm again, and that he's one of the highest risk pitchers in MLB" may have greatly reduced his trade value, you think that Bavasi made a panic move because Soriano was suffering from a cold. I think Bavasi made a bad move, you think he did something unconscionably stupid. I respect you, Graham, you're consistently one of the better spoken, better informed posters, but I don't respect that opinion. To me, it seems irrational, even prejudiced.
OK, I'm going to bed. Good discussion. I'll check back tomorrow hoping to read your response, but I should get back to my neglected blog--so I've said my piece about Bavasi for now. I'm sure we'll revisit this subject sometime in the future.
Cheers.
by John Morgan on Jul 29, 2007 3:01 AM PDT up reply actions
Ok
You're right in that I'm overlooking his good moves - I was deliberately avoiding them, because what I'm trying to do here is to give insight into why certain parties seem to despise Bavasi as much as they do, not give a proper evaluation of his skills. Perhap's I'm being too zealous in denouncing him, so I'll make that up by saying that I cannot heap enough praise on him for the way he's handled Ichiro, Putz, the kids, and (generally) the farm system.
I trust that rumour about the Soriano trade because I believe Jeff (I can't find the post in question right now, so if I've imagined it, oops!), not because I want to believe Bavasi's an idiot. I really don't - I think Bavasi's a decent GM who occaisionally makes bonehead moves. I wouldn't call myself a Bavasi hater, I just understand where all the anger comes from.
Ummm
not having Jones called up yet
Agreed on the other moves.
more of the same
by John on Jul 28, 2007 12:47 PM PDT reply actions
We're 9 games over .500 and the team
What makes people think that ownership is going to conclude, "Bavasi sucks. Fire him."?
If the Mariners significantly falter
I dunno
We know better... but can you expect the rest of the uninformed front office and general public to know better?
I don't see management changing hiring practices
by Celadus on Jul 28, 2007 3:11 PM PDT reply actions
George Costanza
by JoeyJoJoJuniorShabadoo on Jul 28, 2007 3:24 PM PDT reply actions
I'm not sure you can peg Morrow
It was Hargrove that really wanted him up in the majors to help out his bullpen
Bavasi is Hargrove's boss
Can't Say No
If Bavasi had been keenly aware of having to jump through such hoops, he might have never taken the job in the first place.
by Celadus on Jul 28, 2007 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions
Two points
- Being a good boss means knowing when to defer to the wishes of a subordinate
- Bavasi doesn't have the same freedom of action that other GM's do. He has his superiors (non-baseball men) hovering over him constantly and he had no power over his field manager (Hargrove). Grover could defy Bavasi because Hargrove wasn't accountable to him but to Lincoln & co.
by Aaron on Jul 28, 2007 7:39 PM PDT up reply actions
so?
- and knowing when to put your foot down and say no is important too, more important even.
- since we cannot know the particulars about who pulled what strings on what authority for each individual player move, the default blame/credit has to go to Bavasi. Which is a big reason part one is important.
re: so?
- Yes, but that still doesn't mean that a good GM doesn't respect the opinions of his field manager and not defer to him on occasion. And since Morrow was a big part of our early success, I'm not sure how pinning him on Bavasi makes Bill look bad.
- If during spring training Mike Hargrove openly states that he's excited about the thought of having Brandon Morrow pitch for him, it's safe to say that Grover had a part in deciding that Morrow would make the team to begin the year.
by Aaron on Jul 29, 2007 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions
Baseball doesn't work that way.
Favor the Bold
really?
really?
This is all...
The Athletics are one of few teams where the GM shoves orders down the throat of the field manager.
I'm not saying that 27 teams don't step on the manager's toes, but that it's not an everyday thing on other teams. And, for a long time, it has never happened with the Seattle Mariners.
Favor the Bold
re: really?
by Aaron on Jul 29, 2007 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions

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