ATTN JEFF

by ConorGlassey on Jun 16, 2007 12:45 AM PDT

Win Probability in Omaha!

Hey Jeff - have you watched any of the College World Series games? They're posting Wim Probabilities every so often for each team. Not sure how they're calculated or anything, but I thought it was pretty sweet and thought you would like to know that. I wonder how long it will take for MLB to start doing the same thing...

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The D-Backs have been doing it all year.

Protect the enviroment, or I'll FUCKING KILL YOU! CAPTAAAAAIIIINNNN PLANNNNET! ~Ted Turner

by Goose on Jun 16, 2007 12:56 AM PDT reply actions

Really?

That's awesome - I didn't know that.

"The secret of managing is to keep the guys who hate you away from the guys who are undecided." -Casey Stengel

by ConorGlassey on Jun 16, 2007 1:31 AM PDT up reply actions

Yeah, I first noticed it back in like the 2nd week

of April while watching a game. A little bit prior to that the broadcasters were talking about FB/GB ratio's and swinging strikes % for pitchers, which is what caught my attention. Then about the 8th inning or so, BAM! up pops up a graphic with the win probability % for each team. It blew my mind.

They don't show it during every game, but it makes an appearance at least 2-3 times week. More often than not when the D-Backs are winning of course, and usually late in the game.

Protect the enviroment, or I'll FUCKING KILL YOU! CAPTAAAAAIIIINNNN PLANNNNET! ~Ted Turner

by Goose on Jun 16, 2007 2:01 AM PDT up reply actions

I absolutely love it.

I hope it catches on. In my fantasy world Win Expectancy is constantly shown next to the score and the base situation during team broadcasts, but baby steps, I suppose.

by Jeff Sullivan on Jun 16, 2007 1:05 AM PDT reply actions

the thing about that, is

I wonder how much the casual fan would like it. I know the thing that still gets me is just how much the WE swings once a team is leading. You see a 4-2 game in the 5th and you're still riveted, but the WE in said situation might be like 85/15. It's a bit disheartening.

by Matthew on Jun 16, 2007 2:52 AM PDT up reply actions

Exactly

It will turn fans away from broadcasts in the late innings. "So right now the M's have only a 10% chance of winning folks, but stay tuned so we can make more money on advertising."

by phil333 on Jun 16, 2007 8:26 AM PDT up reply actions

But that adds to the excitement.

It can swing so much that it makes it interesting to see how much the percentages change with each single, HBP, etc. It is similar to poker in that the win % number makes it easier for a really casual fan to understand how some of the smaller details affect the game.

by lessthnpar on Jun 16, 2007 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions

The casual fans

might enjoy something similar to what ESPN's World Poker TV shows have. They could simply include a % figure next to the scores giving the win % probability.

ex.

9th
SEA 5 86%
TEX 4 14%

by Emerald on Jun 16, 2007 1:06 PM PDT reply actions