Most underrated players in baseball?
We've talked about how players like Michael Young are overrated. But what about the players who are underrated? In my opinion one is Placido Polanco.
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Placido Polanco?
Adam Everett is underrated.
He's a horrid hitter
best in the league
Yeah really
by Graham MacAree on May 8, 2007 1:53 AM PDT up reply actions
I believe in his peak
by Jeff Sullivan on May 7, 2007 6:10 PM PDT up reply actions
well
Okay.
Polanco, for his career, is underrated.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 7, 2007 6:15 PM PDT up reply actions
Looks to me like he's lost a step
by Graham MacAree on May 8, 2007 1:52 AM PDT up reply actions
You'll love this
SELL SELL SELL
I agree
by Scruffy Lefty on May 7, 2007 6:36 PM PDT up reply actions
huh, gift run
I'm ignorant, but
I don't know about
Everyone
I thought he was
Could have been
Blew a call at first base.
Plus the whole rain thing. It was most unpleasant.
by Jeff Sullivan on May 7, 2007 9:27 PM PDT up reply actions
Thank you
I don't care for your UZRs and PMRs and OPSs. Give me a veteran who doesn't strike out and raps some tough GBs around the park.
Like Tiger Woods, Jose Vidro's rollers always find the hole. That's something you will never see in a million spreadsheets. You will also never see how much this gets into the head of the pitcher.
A lined double? The pitcher goes, hey, I made a bad pitch. But when you give up two GB singles, or IF singles, to a guy with no legs? Then you start wondering if the hitter is a shaman or wizard. If that hitter is Jose Vidro, he is (a shaman). The AL is starting to learn this, and I have it on good authority that Vidro caused the 'snow game' to be cancelled in Cle.
a quick list
John Lackey
Adrian Gonzalez
Orlando Hudson..O DOG!!
there are a few more, i'll think of some later.
Barry Bonds
Statistically
I think you have to give Bonds the nod
by Edgar for Pres on May 7, 2007 9:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Steeeeeeeeeeeroids!
Not a tougher league
Bonds' defense and base stealing have nothing to do with who the greatest hitter is any more than Ruth's pitching does.
Plus, Ruth and Williams never took steroids.
by Rollo Tomasi on May 7, 2007 10:08 PM PDT up reply actions
Ruth or Williams
I guess I don't blame Bonds for roids as much as everybody else because I really think everyone was doing it (and if it helps a batter, I don't see why it wouldn't help a pitcher either).
by Edgar for Pres on May 8, 2007 12:16 AM PDT up reply actions
How much better is competition?
Expansion
That's a very big deal.
Babe Ruth is the best player in the history of all-white baseball.
Improved conditioning, more advanced knowledge of the game (i.e., the existence of the splitter, etc), and the like mean that Bonds' stats in today's game are far more impressive than what Ruth put up, even if OPS+ puts Ruth ahead.
by helfgott on May 8, 2007 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions
Season by season or is it just a yearly calc?
by Graham MacAree on May 8, 2007 12:49 AM PDT up reply actions
Here's the formula
# Adjust this by the park factor RC' = RC*BPF
# Assume that if hits increase in a park, that BB, HBP, TB increase at the some proportion.
# Assume that Outs = AB - H (more or less) do not change at all as outs are finite.
# Compute the number of H, BB, HBP, TB needed to produce RC', involves the quadratic formula. The idea for this came from the Willie Davis player comment in the Bill James New Historical Baseball Abstract. I think some others, including Clay Davenport have done some similar things.
# Using these adjusted values compute what the league average player would have hit lgOBP, lgSLG* in a park.
# Take OPS+ = 100 * (OBP/lgOBP* + SLG/lgSLG* - 1)
Ok
The way they get league average numbers are clever though.
by Graham MacAree on May 8, 2007 1:38 AM PDT up reply actions
It appears they split between NL and AL
The big problem with all this is that, like you said, it doesn't apply cross-era because that wouldn't make sense. It's simply impossible to compare eras without engaging in unverifiable speculation. I like OPS+ because a players greatness should be viewed in context; Carl Yastrzemski's line of .301 average, 23 HRs, and .921 OPS would make him a decent power hitter today, but in 1968 he was the league's dominant hitter with those numbers. You can make a few arguments to make Babe Ruth seem less impressive (end of the Dead Ball Era, no non-white competition, etc.), but Ted Williams put up pretty much the same OPS numbers as Bonds while playing in an era in which the rest of the league didn't hit as well as they do today. Unless you subscribe to the notion that hitting a baseball is harder today than it was back then, which I don't, this tells us that Williams was a better hitter. Throw in the steroid issue and the fact that Williams lost some of his peak years to World War 2 and Korea, and I think the case for Williams being the greatest hitter ever is pretty solid.
This post got way too long. Good night.
I do subscribe to baseball being harder today
Think of it like this: If I take 100 random numbers out of 100 and that the top 10, the average of those is going to be around 95. If I take 1000 random numbers out of 100, then take the top 10, the average is going to be almost 100. This is much more simplistic, of course, but a similar idea should apply to baseball talent.
by Graham MacAree on May 8, 2007 2:52 AM PDT up reply actions
In fact, it will by definition
by Graham MacAree on May 8, 2007 2:53 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm aware of this principle
Whilst I agree that there would be
The way to test this would be to compare standard deviations in OPS+. A wider band indicates a broader spread of talent and therefore a lower average, wheras if it was tighter it'd mean that the average has shifted higher.
If anyone wants to look into this, that'd be cool. I'm a bit busy at the moment.
by Graham MacAree on May 8, 2007 3:43 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, I don't think I'm diligent enough
Fair enough
by Graham MacAree on May 8, 2007 4:36 AM PDT up reply actions
One thing that should be done
by Edgar for Pres on May 8, 2007 7:46 AM PDT up reply actions
Still disagree
by Edgar for Pres on May 8, 2007 7:33 AM PDT up reply actions
Also
- 123,202,624
- 281,421,906
by Edgar for Pres on May 8, 2007 7:36 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah i was looking at that
Runs Created
Barry Bonds: 2621
Babe Ruth: 2757
90% of Babe Ruth: 2481.3
I don't really know if this is right but it kinda goes along with my feelings.
by Edgar for Pres on May 8, 2007 8:46 AM PDT up reply actions
This is one of the reasons
oops
Those park factors could be done
by Graham MacAree on May 8, 2007 1:51 AM PDT up reply actions
2nded
Ichiro wouldn't be a bad vote either, 41 straight sb's, amazing grace and speed in centerfield?
Lyle Overbay
Also:
Kelly Johnson?
Manny Ramírez (especially by Red Sox fans)
Another vote for the O-Dawg.
AGREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEED
by Kirby on May 8, 2007 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions
Not anymore, really
My votes
James Shields
Josh Willingham
Ray Durham
Russell Martin
Ian Snell
Fernando Cabrera
Carlos Guillen
And...maybe not this year, but historically, Mike Cameron!
My list
Prince Fielder (I don't hear a lot about him, maybe he's not underrated)
Brad Hawpe (Ok, not this year yet)
Garrett Atkins
Matt Holliday
Jeff Francis
Basically any Rockie who's done well, except for Helton now.
Hawpe, Holliday, Atkins
by Rollo Tomasi on May 8, 2007 12:12 AM PDT up reply actions
Coors...
Don't trust PFs until they show
by Graham MacAree on May 8, 2007 9:36 AM PDT up reply actions
It's a pretty big difference for all of them
Atkins is +160 OPS points at home vs. road but still has a .803 on the road.
Holliday is like +309.
Hawpe is -86.
It doesn't mean they are bad otherwise but they aren't as good as their stats would show.
Mark McLemore
by TyranT on May 7, 2007 11:29 PM PDT reply actions
Adam Dunn
(FYI, Hi, I'm new.)
Underrated by whom?
Guy IMO are underrated: Craig Biggio today, Jeff Suppan.
by rfloh @ Lookout Landing on May 8, 2007 6:11 AM PDT reply actions
Alex Rios
Context
Correction
by chrisisasavage on May 8, 2007 9:55 AM PDT up reply actions
Also
Those categories are:
Position Players whose hitting value is deflated by playing in a pitchers park.
Great defensive guys who are average or worse hitters.
Pitchers who play in a hitters park.
Pitchers who have good peripherals but have had bad luck or crappy defense behind them.
Pitchers who have not-so-good peripherals but still get people out consistently.
The saber crowd will recoginize most of these guys, except the last bit, but even then, once the sample is big enough that regression says they really are that good, they will recognize them as well.
by chrisisasavage on May 8, 2007 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions
I think
by chrisisasavage on May 8, 2007 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions
I think you could maybe make up a stat
-A few early great seasons (Zito?)
-High BA (Pierre)
-High RBI (Sexson)
-High SB (Crawford?)
-Ok hitter at a premium defensive position (1B, DH, corner OF) (Garret Anderson)
-High Wins
-Low ERA (Washburn)
-Saves
-Market played in (NY, ect)
Underrated/overratedness will change with time as people change their attitude so it is a difficult task.
You could probably make a simple stat like (Outs/Runs Created)*(Games Played) where higher would be more overrated.
by Edgar for Pres on May 8, 2007 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions
Crawford overrated?
by rfloh @ Lookout Landing on May 8, 2007 11:35 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't know
by Edgar for Pres on May 8, 2007 12:08 PM PDT up reply actions
LEROY JEEEEEENKINS
Chris Capuano
by Kirby on May 8, 2007 11:01 AM PDT reply actions
I think Lackey
Except here
by Graham MacAree on May 8, 2007 11:35 AM PDT up reply actions
...and has been for a few years
Also, damn, did you know Lackey apparently has a blog? I didn't. Wowie.
Bronson Arroyo
I really don't trust Bronson Arroyo.
In fact, it looks to me like his LOB% in 2006 are the cause of the discrepancy. He goes from mid 60s up to almost 80% last year, which I don't think is sustainable.
Having said that, he's pitching like a beast this His performance this year is powered by a 20% IFFB rate and a 1.7%!!! HRFB. Those aren't sustainable numbers (although they are really, really cool).
I'm not saying he's a bad pitcher by any means - he's probably half a run above league average. He's just not an ace.
by Graham MacAree on May 8, 2007 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree with your general point
Zito is another guy who has an outrageous HR / FB ratio this year.
by rfloh @ Lookout Landing on May 8, 2007 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions
THT has him
by rfloh @ Lookout Landing on May 8, 2007 11:21 PM PDT up reply actions
Rube Waddell = Most Underrated Player of All Time
by JoeyJoJoJuniorShabadoo on May 8, 2007 1:01 PM PDT reply actions
Waddell's in the hall of fame,
Kyle Lohse,
Comw on.
I said this season
The Correct Answers are
Grady Sizemore
C.C. Sabathia
Pretty much the Cleveland Indians in general.
by awesomer @ Lookout Landing on May 8, 2007 6:54 PM PDT reply actions

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