Neither Here Nor There Post Of The Day

by Jeff Sullivan on May 4, 2007 10:24 AM PDT in Seattle Mariners Regular News

THT is a wonderful statistical resource. One of the coolest things it does (to me, anyway) is post a daily-updated measure of team defense, broken down by groundballs and fly balls. Each team gets two plus/minus values, one for each category. For example, so far this year the Mariners have been -4 and -5, meaning they've turned four fewer groundballs and five fewer fly balls into outs than expected. It's a very simple, easy-to-understand rating system that I find to be remarkably accurate.

With that in mind, I give you the Tampa Bay Devil Rays:

Ground: -31
Air: -7

In 28 games, the D-Rays are at -38 outs. Over a full season, that's a difference of 220 makable plays that weren't. Using an approximate run value of 0.5 runs per play, that defense is on pace to cost the team more than 100 runs this year. Put another way, this group is roughly as bad as the 2002 Angels were good.

I don't know about you, but I just find that incredible. Tampa Bay's defense is on pace to make the difference between a fourth-place finish and challenging for the Wild Card. Next time somebody tries to downplay the importance of fielding when it comes to evaluating a certain team, don't pay them any mind. It's vitally important, and if you don't have it, chances are you won't live to see October.

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They should trade for Matt Kata

by Graham MacAree on May 4, 2007 10:31 AM PDT reply actions

Why is our infield that bad?

Or is this just an early season kink that should work itself out? One would assume an infield of Betancourt and Beltre (awesome), Lopez (average) and Sexson (crap, but at first base) wouldn't be in the negatives.

I guess I haven't got the chance to watch as many games as I'd like now that I'm away from Seattle. Maybe we aren't that good so far?

by Slozbury Stouvre on May 4, 2007 10:44 AM PDT reply actions

I'm not entirely sure.

I mean, Betancourt's made more than his share of errors, but I think this might be a sample size issue. -4 could be a statistical fluke. -31 isn't.

by Jeff Sullivan on May 4, 2007 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions

Beltre's made a couple too

Yeha, probably just a product of sample size and fate.

by Gomez on May 4, 2007 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions

So here's a theory...

Let's send 'em YuBet & HoRam for Kazmir. Re-teach Adam Jones how to play short. They fix their defense, we fix our pitching.

Pray for Felix. Pray for the M's!

by PositivePaul on May 4, 2007 10:54 AM PDT reply actions

Unfortunately

There is very little useful data breaking down individual defensive performance made available during the season.

One that is available (albeit not great and subject to small sample size) is ESPN's Zone Rating. For what it's worth, according to ZR, Sexson has been horrible, Beltre has been below average, Betancourt has been okay, and (surprise) Lopez has been good. I would suspect Betancourt's number of misplays also factors into the THT's metric.

As for the outfield, ZR has Ichiro as awesome and Ibanez and Guillen as bad. Guillen's ZR, however, has been good throughout his career.

by G_ on May 4, 2007 10:59 AM PDT reply actions

It's coming

to THT later on this year, we'll be getting streaming data from BIS and Dewan's +/- system for individual players.

Or at least, that's the plan.

by Matthew on May 4, 2007 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions

Excellent!

THT rocks.

by G_ on May 4, 2007 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions

COOL!

I'm tempted to buy some of their swag, I must admit...

I reject your reality and substitute my own!

by Phil Hatzenbuehler on May 4, 2007 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions

We're No. 1!

Seattle leads the major in pitching +/- with +13! Whoo hoo!

Now, can someone explain in small words for me what that means? I read the THT explanation, "batted balls allowed by pitchers" but my small brain still doesn't get it.

Hey, if we're good at something, it would be nice to know what that is, wouldn't it?

by PDXTai on May 4, 2007 11:33 AM PDT reply actions

I believe it's a measure

of which pitching staffs are allowing the most and least "fieldable" balls in play. For example, based on the balls in play against Mariner pitchers so far this year, you'd expect the defense to have made 13 more outs than usual. Meanwhile, based on the balls in play against Blue Jay pitchers, you'd expect the defense to have made ten fewer outs than usual. Presumably this is because Toronto has allowed a lot of line drives and groundballs, while Seattle has generated more fly balls and fewer line drives (thus making the job on the defense easier).

by Jeff Sullivan on May 4, 2007 11:40 AM PDT up reply actions

Another team that's pretty bad.

Florida, YES!! WOO!

Top 5 Greatest Players ever: 1. Josh Gibson 2. Cool Papa Bell 3. Babe Ruth 4. Matty 5. Ty Cobb

by Coach Owens on May 4, 2007 11:48 AM PDT reply actions

Kazmir's like,

"Must... strike out... everyone..."

I think part of the problem is Ben Zobrist. Not sure what exactly's gone wrong with him, but he's been sucking at baseball in general. I wonder whether the Rays are just going to push Reid Brignac ahead...

Marinerds - a different daily dose of baseblog.

by Deanna on May 4, 2007 1:58 PM PDT reply actions

I was talking to Dave about this a few days ago.

His response:

I can believe it, though. Look at their infield defenses.

3B - Iwamura - he's fine, I think.
SS - Zobrist/Harris. Both have no range. Zobrist can barely move, and Harris was bad at second base.
2B - Upton. He needs to move to the outfield. The Gary Sheffield comparisons are looking very apt about now.
1B - Wigginton - another one of the worst defenders in baseball.

Just a horrible group of guys who not only lack range, but make a lot of errors.

by Jeff Sullivan on May 4, 2007 2:00 PM PDT up reply actions