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4/30 Minor League Wrap-Up

Not a good day for the Mavs and T-Rats, but the DIAMOND JAXX and Rainiers made huge statements yesterday.  Both winning teams also had slumping regulars put up big-time performances under pressure.

Star-divide

A:  San Jose 7, High Desert 1

Aaron Cotter:  6 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 3 walks, 3 K
Austin Bibens-Dirkx:  1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, walk
Roman Martinez:  1 IP, 1 K
Casey Craig:  1-4, R, K (.265)
Michael Saunders:  0-3, walk, K (.226)
Jesus Guzman:  2-4, double, RBI, K (.309)
Johan Limonta:  1-4, double, 2 K (.316)
spots 6-9 in lineup:  0-12, walk, K

Aaron Cotter has definitely returned to Earth.  San Jose slowly pounded away at him, with a run in the 1st, two more in the 2nd and 2 more in the 5th.  High Desert didn't manage their only run until it was far too late.  Starter Gregorio Martinez was nothing special as he pitched into the 6th, but the Mavs couldn't get much going against him, and the little Giants bullpen just shut down the Mavs, K'ing 5 of the final 12 batters and allowing only two baserunners.

A:  Dayton 3, Wisconsin 1

Kyle Parker:  5 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 3 K
Steve Uhlmansiek:  2 IP, 5 H, (3 R) 2 ER, walk, 2 K
Joseph Kantakevich:  2 IP, 2 K
Leury Bonilla:  1-4, solo HR, 2 K
And that was the only T-Rats hit in the game.

Travis Webb no-hit the T-Rats for six innings, with a walk and 5 K's.  8 flyouts to 5 groundouts.  Kyle Parker matched him with one hit ball over 5, but Steve Uhlmansiek cracked before Pedro Viola did, and cracked far more than Viola did: Uhlmansiek helped cough up 3 runs (one of which was, SURPRISE, unearned, thanks in part to a missed catch at 1st by Hargrove's kid) while Viola's only blemish was a solo HR from Leury Bonilla.  And Viola was dominant with 5 K's over his 3 innings of work.

Repeat after me:  THEY'RE JUST KIDS, THEY'RE JUST KIDS, THEY'RE JUST KIDS....

AA:  West Tenn 16, Chattanooga 8

Joe Woerman:  3 IP, 5 H, 6 ER (3 HR), 5 walks, 3 K
Juan Sandoval:  4 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, walk, 3 K
Craig James:  1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 K
The Aircraft Carrier:  1 IP, walk, K
Brent Johnson:  2-6, R (.276)
Alex Meneses:  1-3, 4 R, 2 RBI, 2 walks (.217)
Prentice Redman:  2-4, two 2 run HRs, 3 R, 2 walks, 2 K (.267)
Marshall Hubbard:  1-5, 2 R, 2 RBI (.271)
Matt Tuiasosopo:  2-4, R (.371)
Jeff Frazier:  2-5, double, R, 3 RBI (.200)
Chris Minaker:  1-5, solo HR, 2 RBI, K (.233)
Luis Oliveros:  3-5, 2 double, 2 R, RBI, K (.409)
Luis Valbuena:  1-5, R (.193)

It was already 4-0 Lookouts after 2 innings, and it wasn't looking good, but the DIAMOND JAXX caught a big break in the 3rd.  Luis Oliveros, who at this point probably at least deserves a hot-hand promotion to the top catcher spot over Rene Rivera, doubled with one out.  Valbuena flew to left for two outs, but Brent Johnson's grounder to short was thrown YIKES AND AWAY by Paul Janish to score Oliveros and put Johnson at 2nd.  4-1.

Alex Meneses lined a single to right that scored Johnson, and it was 4-2.  Prentice Redman then hit a rocket over the left field wall to tie the ballgame at 4-4!  Marshall Hubbard grounded out, but still, the DIAMOND JAXX did a tremendous job of capitalizing on a big break with two outs.

But the Lookouts quickly responded in the bottom 3rd.  Chris Dickerson led off with his 1st home run of the season and Chattanooga had the lead again.  Joe Woerman then lost his control: Ryan Hanigan walked, Tonys Gutierrez walked.  Caonado Cosme sac bunted the runners ahead for one out, and Marland Williams grounded out, but plated a run to make it 6-4.  Drew Anderson drew a walk, but Paul Janish's liner got gloved by Valbuena at 2nd to end the threat, marking the 2nd gift from Janish in this ballgame.

Woerman was done after that, and the overworked Juan Sandoval surrendered a two out triple and walk in the 4th: he escaped.  He did not escape in the bottom 5th: Marland Williams bunted back to Sandoval and beat out the throw, then stole 2nd base.  Drew Anderson's double easily scored Williams and it was 7-4 Lookouts.  Paul Janish's incredible fortune continued as his liner found Chris Minaker's glove at SS, and Enrique Cruz grounded out to end the inning, but it looked like West Tenn was gonna drop another one to the Lookouts.

Alex Meneses got plunked to lead off the top 6th, and it must've lit a fire under the DIAMOND JAXX, because Prentice Redman went up and hit ANOTHER jack to make it 7-6.  Marshall Hubbard grounded to 2nd and 2B Caonabo Cosme couldn't handle it, giving Hubbard 1st.  Tui grounded to pitcher Luke Lockwood and made it to 1st in time, runners now at 1st and 2nd, no outs.  Jeff Frazier, a dud so far this year, smacked a worm burner down the RF line for two bases, scoring Hubbard to tie the ballgame as Tui took 3rd.  That was it for Luke Lockwood, ceding to Carlos Bohorquez.  Chris Minaker grounded to short for the first out, and Tui scored to give the DIAMOND JAXX the 8-7 lead.  Oliveros hit a towering double to left that scored Frazier and made it 9-7.  Valbuena and Brent Johnson flew and popped out, but once again West Tenn put up a huge inning.

And it wouldn't be their last.  After adding another run off a wild Jared Burton in the 7th to make it 10-7, the Lookouts relieved Burton with a familiar face from a couple years back: Mike Flannery, part of the trade that sent Miguel Olivo to San Diego.  Chris Minaker greeted old Mike by hitting his first HR of the season, 11-7.  Oliveros flew out, but Luis Valbuena's grounder down the middle found a hole for a base hit, and Valbuena stole 2nd.  Brent Johnson popped up for two outs (what is with this guy's gag reflex with RISP?), but Alex Meneses walked.  Then Prentice Redman walked (probably pitched around a bit after those two bombs) to load the bases.  Marshall Hubbard finally got good wood and smoked a single to center that scored Valbuena and Meneses, 13-7.  Tui smacked a single to left that loaded the bases again.  Jeff Frazier, who has a hit already but has been a rally killer all year, hit a sharp grounder that found a hole to LF, scoring Redman and Hubbard to make it 15-7 as Tui took 2nd.  Even after Chris Minaker flew out, the rout was on.

AAA:  Tacoma 7, Colorado Springs 6

Jim Parque:  6 IP, 9 H, (5 R) 4 ER, walk, 2 K
Renee Cortez:  2 IP, 0 H, 1 ER, 2 walks, 2 K, HBP, wild pitch
Jon Huber:  1 IP, 2 K, THIS is more like it.
Adam Jones IS BACK:  0-4, R, walk, 2 K (.295)
Jeremy Reed:  1-4, double, 3 RBI (.247)
WLAD:  1-4, solo HR (6) (.247)
Bryan LaHair:  0-3, R, walk (.217)
Mike Morse:  1-3, R, walk, 2 K (.333)
Jeff Clement (DH):  0-2, R, walk, K (.212)
Rob Johnson:  1-2, double, R, 2 walk (.225)

After WLAD's solor blast in the 1st made it 1-0, the Sky Sox pounded the hell out of Jim Parque in the 2nd for 5 runs, but Parque, to his credit, hung in there until the end of the 6th and did not allow another run after that barrage.  Jeremy Reed nailed a 2 out, 2 run double in the 5th to cut it to 5-3.  Josh Newman's 2 wild pitches to Jeremy Reed in the bottom 7th allowed Reed's groundout to 2nd to knock in Adam Jones and make it 5-4.

The Sky Sox threatened in the top 8th against a shaky Renee Cortez.  Ian Stewart drew a one out walk and Sean Barker got plunked.  Joe Koshansky grounded to our friend Oswaldo Navarro, who had been so good this past week or so but NOT HERE, as he bobbles the ball and loads the bases.  Error #7 on the year for Oswaldo, but again, he had been much better this past week up to this point.  Cortez then uncorked a wild pitch to give up a run and move the other runners over, 6-4 Sky Sox.  Cortez thankfully got Alexis Gomez and Alvin Colina to end the inning.

Tacoma immediately answered in the bottom 8th.  Bryan LaHair and Mike Morse drew walks to lead off, and after a coaching visit, Josh WIld Thang Newman was yanked for Ryan Speier, who plunked Jeff Clement to load the bases.  Rob Johnson grounded to 3rd, and 3B Ian Stewart obviously threw home for the force, except his throw was YIKES AND AWAY and LaHair scored to make it 6-5, runners on 2nd and 3rd.  Gookie Dawkins grounded into the 6-4-3 DP for two outs, but still knocked in a run as Mike Morse scored, and we were tied at 6.  Oswaldo Navarro tapped to 1st, and 1B Joe Koshansky returned the favor for Oswaldo muffing his grounder earlier by throwing the ball YIKES AND AWAY to allow Clement to score and give the Rainiers the 7-6 lead.

But Daren Brown loves drama, so to get the final three outs, and with Byron Embry still sucking air (and, quite likely, meatloaf) from yesterdays appearance, the skipper called for Jon Huber, who had spent April melting down slowly and painfully.  Imagine JJ getting the night off after a five out save and Grover handing the ball to Mateo with a one run lead in the 9th.  Yeah, like that.

So what does Huber do?  He gets Douglas Bernier to watch strike three for one.  He gets Cory Sullivan to ground out to 2nd for two.  He gets Jayson Nix to swing at strike three to seal the ballgame.  JON HUBER IS BACK.

Okay, it's only one game, but after the month he's had, this has to be a massive confidence booster for Jon Huber, not just getitng the save, but Daren Brown handing him the ball in the 9th with a one run lead after the month he's had, then getting the job done.

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Yeah.
His K/BB and K/9 in High Desert seem to be much different than last year, too.  
Pray for Felix. Pray for the M's!

by PositivePaul on May 1, 2007 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions  

I'm starting to wonder
how long they give this 'mechanical adjustment' experiment.   I'm not pleased.

Sure, he's gotta work on it and all, but... you took a guy that struck everyone out and that no one could touch, and you made him...less good.  

They're the professionals and all, but I'm not exactly thrilled with this.

by marc w on May 1, 2007 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions  

The Dave Cameron Answer
would be that it's only a month into the season and it's a non-issue :P

by Gomez on May 1, 2007 1:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

Possibly...
But, and I'm curious, are K/9 and K/BB truly affected by park factors?  Maybe league factors, sure, but park factors?  I'm not sure...
Pray for Felix. Pray for the M's!

by PositivePaul on May 1, 2007 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

Now that you mention it
No, they wouldn't.

It is also possible that, facing somewhat more advanced hitters in High A ball, some of the basic approaches he used to get hitters out in Everett last year aren't quite working in the Cal League, especially now that the league's seen him a little bit, thus requiring some adjustment.

by Gomez on May 1, 2007 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

Minor league park factors
just to put some data around the responses..
YES, parks affect walks and Ks along with HRs.

The std. dev is a lot lower, as you might guess.

Here's the 2003-05 weighted average park factors for every park.

As you can see, HD is a strikeout inhibiting place, but that's got nothing to do with ABD's issues.  He's done fine at home, and is striking out a man per inning there.

To be fair, he's had to play in Lake Elsinore, which has a freakish effect on Ks - .68.  Weird.     Though Lake Elsinore is a pitcher's park all around, and inhibits hits, which was ABD's problem away from home.  

by marc w on May 1, 2007 2:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yes
K numbers were down and BBs up in Coors Field for absolutely ages. I don't have a study to hand, but PF's affect pretty much everything - from HR% to BB% to GB%.

They're funny creatures, these park factors.

by Graham MacAree on May 1, 2007 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

Sure they would.
Think about it like a pitcher. If you're in a hitter-friendly environment, you don't want to get burned, so you're going to be more cautious in the strike zone. You'll try to work around the edges rather than in the middle, with the inevitable result being fewer strikes.

by Jeff Sullivan on May 1, 2007 1:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

And your breaking stuff blows too
A good portion of park factors aren't the physical changes in gameplay but the different approaches players used when they become aware of the environment.

It'd be interesting to see whether Rockies hitters in the late 90s had their home/away splits more pronounced the longer they were Rockies.

by Graham MacAree on May 1, 2007 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

This 'high desert' thing
would make more sense as an explanation if it wasn't for the fact that he hasn't given up a run there.  
His problem has come away from home, where he's really sucked so far (RA = 9)

Yes, it's still the cal league, but this isn't a High Desert phenomenon, so we need to look elsewhere.  

by marc w on May 1, 2007 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

Some other things to point out
6 of his 7 walks have come before 4-21 and at home.  So he's shown better control over the last week and change than he did to start the year.  In fact, the walk he gave up yesterday was his 1st on the road.

Also, given an atrocious strand rate: you think some of his issues come from pitching from the stretch?

I'll need to take a look at the game logs for line drive rates when I have more time (HAHAHA).

by Gomez on May 1, 2007 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

WOOHOO
I had forgotten about this.

by Gomez on May 1, 2007 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

Okay
Granted, the following observations are with the low sample size of only 13.2 IP in mind, and of course, this is all nothing more than an educated guess.

He still has low line drive rates, so he's not exactly getting tattooed, but I'm noticing he gave up a lot of hits with no outs.

The low line drive rates, .409 BABIP with nobody on, numerous unearned runs and higher groundball rate tells me he's just experiencing some negative variance as he starts out an inning.  In the minors, lots of singles occur on grounders that sneak past inexperienced, inadequately positioned or inferior fielders.  That's probably what's happening here: he's getting groundballs and they're not finding his infielders.

As for the K's... well, what I said about facing more advanced hitters.

by Gomez on May 1, 2007 3:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

WAIT, retract that last line
Is there really much of a difference between A ball and A+ ball?

by Gomez on May 1, 2007 3:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

But looking at the park factors
It doesn't seem that the K rates are inversely correlated with HR inflation.   That is, it seems that K rates drop somewhat randomly.   I'd say that they drop in extreme environments (see Norwich), because I can imagine you'd K fewer guys in a place in which it was literally impossible to HR - how could throwing a fastball down the middle hurt you?

But how do we explain Lake Elsinore or Louisville?

Esp. in the low minors, I wonder how much of this has to do with umpiring.

by marc w on May 1, 2007 2:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

That's true.
Inconsistent umpiring is probably a big part of it in the minors. I was mostly talking about the effects we've seen in the Majors (bad K/BB in Texas/Boston/Colorado/Arizona, good K/BB in Anaheim/San Diego/Los Angeles/Washington, etc). The mindset thing is only one potential explanation, but it seems to apply in a lot of cases.

by Jeff Sullivan on May 1, 2007 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah
and the mindset thing clearly plays into it even in the low minors, where you get more parks - from HR-hating death valleys like Tri-Cities to the FunkBlast havens (more pure funk bombs than People records, circa 1974) like High desert and Lancaster - that truly are extreme.  

But I remember someone looking at how much K rates changed during the minor league umpire strike... there was a fairly significant effect.   It's certainly a piece of this puzzle.

by marc w on May 1, 2007 4:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

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