Adrian Beltre write-up on Baseball Analysts

by TheEmrys on Mar 8, 2007 11:26 AM PST

http://www.baseballanalysts.com/

Its by Jeff Albert: here's a quote for you.

After a stellar 2004 season, Seattle 3B Adrian Beltre has somehow lost his belt. Unfortunately, the belt I am referring to has to do with producing long hits instead of holding up long pants. What's intriguing is not that Beltre's production fell off after a career year, but the degree to which his numbers have declined. After what seemed to be an MVP-type season where Beltre put it all together showing his tremendous ability, it seems that 2005 resulted in a return right back to square one - do not pass go, do not collect your $200 (uh, rather collect your $64 million, but I suppose that
is another story).

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Great read

I could only hope it's all mental/mechanical and can be corrected. If Beltre were to put a full season in, with his rate stats Post ASB last year, and you included his stellar Defense, he'd be like one of the top 5-10 players in the game (taking Safeco into account). Nobody should expect that, but I agree, it could be random noise, it could be him finding his groove. Either way, It'd be dangerous to assume it's at all repeatable, and realize he could be a .900 OPS monster, or a .700 OPS bum. I think some of the Richard Hidalgo comps were dead on (except perhaps in an even more extreme fashion). He still shows flashes of that brilliant hitter that got him the contract, but as the years go on, people should expect it less and less. That said, a super year might just burst out of nowhere, so who knows.

by chrisisasavage on Mar 8, 2007 1:51 PM PST reply actions