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Fantasy advice

My fantasy draft is finally coming up(tomorrow) and I was looking for opinions of everybody on strategy and potential undervalued players.  I meant to do this earlier and have a giant fantasy diary where everybody could chime but never got around to it(hopefully it isn't too late).  I love fantasy baseball and figured a lot of you love it too.

So first, skip over unless you enjoy analyzing leagues to find weaknesses in the stats.  The stats are the following (8x8): Hitters R, H, HR, RBI, SB, BB, TB, AVG pitchers:  W, SV, H, HR, K, ERA, WHIP, K/BB.  I look at the pitching and see the value in either elite closers or elite setup men.  With the setup men being undervalued a lot and should be easily had later in the draft.  For hitters I see the advantage of power hitters more than speed players, with players like Reyes and Crawford being overvalued.  I normally just punt saves and SB and try to maximize my offense with sluggers.  

Onto the good part, so what players does everybody think are undervalued in their league?  There are always the obvious injured stars from last year who have dropped in the draft (D Lee and Harden for example).  Here are some more I think might be undervalued Zack Greinke, Anibal Sanchez(who will progress regress a little), Scott Olsen and then some relief pitchers, Neshek, Meredith, Duchschereer.

As you can see I have mostly be looking at pitchers right now and doing more research on the hitters tonight.  So what is everybody's opinion and or views.

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Ian Snell
Good K numbers, improving control, but he had a lousy ERA last year (some bad luck in the HR/F department, and with BABIP) . The only bad thing is he plays on Pittsburgh, where he might not get very many wins.
I reject your reality and substitute my own!

by Phil Hatzenbuehler on Mar 28, 2007 9:50 AM PDT reply actions  

I drafted Snell.
A much better pickup than my drafting Zach Duke last year, at least, that's for sure.

Pittsburgh's doomed -- there's no way that even LaRoche, Bay, and Nady at the heart of the order is going to solve their problems -- but I think Snell is a solid pitcher and will fly under a LOT of people's radar, so he can be picked up in later rounds of the draft, and is a good bet to at least pile up a lot of K's.

Marinerds - a different daily dose of baseblog.

by Deanna on Mar 28, 2007 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

As always
Focus on high OBP and high SLG guys on offense and guys with good FIP, solid K/9, and good K/BB ratios on starting pitching.

Try to snag a couple of known closers for SV and try to snag a couple of known quality base stealers for SB.  The other numbers usually take care of themselves when aiming for the above.

by Gomez on Mar 28, 2007 10:04 AM PDT reply actions  

Tha tis my normal focus
I always lay off saves and try to snag a closer late in the draft or just wait the first month or so out waiting for the first couple of closers to go down.  I just don't see the point in overpaying for a stat when you have guys like JJ last year who stepped out and took over and could be had on the waiver wire.

by Grubbie on Mar 28, 2007 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions  

You can do that
It's great when others are making a run at closers during the draft, as you can easily snag a solid player that meets some other need during that time.

Another thing you can do is to swing a trade after the draft with another team that's heavy in closers.

I tried the draft-no-closer approach last year, only having Trevor Hoffman after he basically fell into my lap, but it killed me in SV until I was able to snag Otsuka right before Tejas gave him the closer job.

by Gomez on Mar 28, 2007 12:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

Closers
I wouldn't spend too much on closers because there's a few teams out there have the closing issue being an issue. Teams like MIL, Cincy, TB, FLA, Atl, and PIT may not have the same closers in May as they do today.

If you stay active and pay attention to who's doing what, you can usually pick up a new closer or two off the waiver wire in a few weeks.

"You guys should be in every major city. This is some heavy shit. This is, like, Lone Ranger heavy, man."

by AZSEAfan on Mar 28, 2007 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

I always ignore SB and SV too
but try to draft a decent closer anyway, just because those guys also tend to help with K's and ERA/WHIP.  Last year having Joe Nathan was pretty awesome in that department.
Marinerds - a different daily dose of baseblog.

by Deanna on Mar 28, 2007 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm with you
I just believe everybody overpays for Saves.  In my league having it be one of 8 stats puts a little less value on it.  I just dont' see the point of drafting a guy like Nathan, when I can grab Bonderman or Webb.

If a closer slips I will take them, but I always view it as I woudl rather have a good starting pitcher then a good closer.  There is always turn over on the closers that if you follow the waiver wire you can nab a couple(I have always had luck, like grabbing Lidge and Street off the waiver wires when they first took over closer duties).

by Grubbie on Mar 28, 2007 3:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

This is my first year playing fantasy
But I've been going for prospects who're on the verge of making the big teams in lower rounds. Matt Garza comes to mind.

by Graham MacAree on Mar 28, 2007 10:06 AM PDT reply actions  

MICHAEL YOUNG!!!
Oh my god he's the most undervalued player in baseball! Stellar defense, awesome bat, balls like kiwis! Shoot me now I'm a fucking idiot!

by Bearskin Rugburn on Mar 28, 2007 11:06 AM PDT reply actions  

Sigh
Look, I drafted Michael Young because I got sniped for Hanley Ramirez.  But I don't think of it as a bad drafting, and if he does his normal splits I'll just go try to trade him and hope to cash in on his overrated name.
Marinerds - a different daily dose of baseblog.

by Deanna on Mar 28, 2007 1:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

I just traded
Nate Robertson, Nomar, and Austin Kearns for LaRoche and Joe Borowski, so I feel pretty happy about that.  I needed power DESPERATELY, and had no real closer.

I've got something on the table for Adam Dunn (Bonderman / Granderson), too.  I need to get those HRs up.

That still leaves me with:

Peavy
Sheets
Felix
Cole Hamels
Jason Jennings

I have 4 closers now I'm gonna try out and then grab a 6th starter / bench bat.  

I <3 fantasy.

by Garces on Mar 28, 2007 11:12 AM PDT reply actions  

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