Felix Community Projection Results

by Jeff on Mar 2, 2007 8:46 AM PST in Regular News

110 entries gave the following numbers:

IP: 206.2
R: 86
H: 184 (8.1 H/9)
2B: 32
3B: 3
HR: 18 (0.8 HR/9)
BB: 58 (2.5 BB/9)
HBP: 6
K: 201 (8.8 K/9)
RA: 3.73
FIP: 3.31
XERA: 3.19
ERC: 3.01

All in all, an optimistic projection, as the community thinks Felix gets better across the board. Innings, hits, walks, strikeouts, and homers all trend in the right direction, leading to an ERA in the 3.3-3.4 range. For a clue as to how this went as a whole, the lowest projection called for an RA of 4.64, 31 points better than where Felix stood a year ago. So, yeah. Either we don't learn lessons very well, or Felix is going to be really, really good.

0 recs | Comment 21 comments

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I doubt

We'll see a 2.5 BB/9 out of Felix next year.

by chrisisasavage on Mar 2, 2007 9:30 AM PST 0 recs

Yeah.

Me too.

by Jeff on Mar 2, 2007 9:31 AM PST up 0 recs

Probably not.

That projection of a 1.18 WHIP and over 200 IP with nearly a K per inning would mean the Cy Young race comes down to Santana and Felix, and everybody else had better hope for an injury or two.

I'm hopeful, but at the end of 2007, I bet this one gets chalked up to 'irrational exuberance.'

by AnotherAaron on Mar 2, 2007 9:35 AM PST up 0 recs

Outside of the BB rate

I'm wouldn't be surprised to see 200+ K and a stingy hit rate. I think he could be a little bit more homer prone than people think, but if he is really doing that good, then maybe not.

by chrisisasavage on Mar 2, 2007 10:03 AM PST up 0 recs

you are probably right

but his 2005 MLB BB/9 was 2.45.

by G_ on Mar 2, 2007 9:54 AM PST up 0 recs

Well

If he does, watch out!

by chrisisasavage on Mar 2, 2007 12:15 PM PST up 0 recs

I still the K/9 is still too high.

With the club's philosophy of "pitching to contact" and Felix's experience with getting his fastball hammered last year, he'll go to his offspeed stuff more, and get more grounders (somewhere between the 2005 and 2006 GB%). But because he'll use his fastball less, he'll be way more effective than last year, but still get about the same number of K's (~8 K/9).

The key, though, is he'll be way more efficient.

That's a right kerfuffle!

by Phildopip on Mar 2, 2007 10:02 AM PST 0 recs