Vidro Community Projection Results

In retrospect, we probably should've skipped this projection altogether since all it does is remind everyone how much December sucked.

AB: 440
H: 120
2B: 23
3B: 1
HR: 9
BB: 41
HBP: 3
K: 55
BA: .274 (.022)
OBP: .339 (.022)
SLG: .388 (.038)
IsoPa: .065 (.012)
IsoPo: .114 (.022)

(Note: "IsoPa" refers to "Isolated Patience", or OBP - BA, while "IsoPo" refers to "Isolated Power, or SLG - BA. For the rate stats, the propagated error is listed in parentheses. Thanks a million to reader Bryan McCulloch for helping out with the calculations.)

...adding a little color:

Suffice it to say that you guys don't like Vidro very much. Out of 112 individual projections, only nine think Vidro finishes with an OPS north of .800, while 32 think he finishes under .700. That's bad. Consensus seems to be that his struggles weren't caused by RFK or having to play defense, but by the fact that he's caught in an irreversible progression towards suck in which he's already pretty far along. Remember, Jose Vidro is being paid to DH. Save for the occasional eyesore of a spot-start in the infield, swinging a bat will be his only job for however long the Mariners decide to keep him around. So if he hits like this, it's a disaster, especially if Hargrove decides to stick him at #3 in the lineup. In short, the community thinks we're going to be missing Chris Snelling for a long time. If it's any consolation, at least a lot of you guys think Vidro'll get hurt, meaning we'll be spared from his projected terror for a few weeks or months during the summer.

Plus one standard deviation gives a line of .296/.373/.432. The average AL DH last year hit .261/.356/.485. In other words, taking some mathematical liberties and assuming a normal distribution, the community gives Jose Vidro about a 16% chance of being league-average or better for his position in 2007. That's...well, you should probably go see Reno 911: Miami as quickly as you can and savor the experience, because if Vidro hits like you guys think he will this summer, there won't be much laughter to be had. Except for the laughter at our own expense, of course, but that's beginning to wear a little thin.