Beltre Community Projection Results

by Jeff on Feb 15, 2007 4:42 PM PST in Regular News

Let's see what 142 of you had to say about arguably the most difficult projection on the team:

AB: 604
H: 171
2B: 40
3B: 3
HR: 31
BB: 51
HBP: 7
K: 112
BA: .283 (.014)
OBP: .347 (.015)
SLG: 512 (.034)
IsoPa: .063 (.008)
IsoPo: .228 (.023)

(Note: "IsoPa" refers to "Isolated Patience", or OBP - BA, while "IsoPo" refers to "Isolated Power, or SLG - BA. For the rate stats, the standard deviation is listed in parentheses. Thanks a million to reader Bryan McCulloch for helping out with the error calculations.)

Chart it!

You guys are optimistic. And that's not a criticism, because who the hell knows? On the one hand, Beltre's projected 2007 stat line would (easily) make for the second-best season of his career - loosely translated into a .292/.353/.533 line for a neutral park. The community, despite substantial Beltre-related frustration over the last two years, thinks he's going to be better across the board, from the average to the power to the walks to the strikeouts, and that's unusual to see. But on the other, he did have a monster second half in 2006, when he looked like a different hitter while posting a Safeco-deflated .892 OPS. Participants basically think he's going to repeat those two and a half months, only with a little less power. Makes sense, given that our most recent memories of Beltre at the plate are good ones.

Perhaps what's most interesting here, though, is the consistency with which optimism pervades the individual projections. Using an adjusted OPS (aOPS) - 1.7*OBP + SLG - 135 of 142 people think Beltre's going to be better in 2007 than he was in 2006. Only one person thinks he regresses back to 2005 form. In fact, more people think he ends up within ten points of his 2004 aOPS (10) than within ten points of his 2005 aOPS (9). That's incredible to me, and I think it speaks to just how badly every last one of us wants this bastard to hit. I'm not going to lie, I do think there's a bias here resulting in higher numbers, but with someone like Beltre, I can't say that for sure. His range of possible outcomes is just way too large, and this projected line is well within reach for someone of his talent level.

This year's Mariner lineup is going to score a lot of runs, but if Adrian Beltre can hit this well all year long, it's going to be one of the best in the league, and the sort of offense that can almost singlehandedly push a team into the playoffs. Cross your fingers, harder than you've ever crossed them before.

0 recs | Comment 23 comments

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Comments

I'm predicting ZiPS will be the winner on this one

I just think everyone was way too optimistic about this one. If he hits like predicted above, our team is going to be great. I just don't think he can hit that well.

by Edgar for Pres on Feb 15, 2007 7:08 PM PST 0 recs

When it comes to Adrian

there's only two things we can be sure of:

He'll play excellent defense
He'll smile all the time

An 850+ OPS would be nice, but it's hard to hate the guy too much, you know?

by Slozbury Stouvre on Feb 15, 2007 7:28 PM PST 0 recs

No matter what he does at the plate

I'll still be an Adrian Beltre fan. For two reasons.

For when he about put the beatdown on Spiroid in Minnesota.
For the two leg sweeps against the Yankees on Green and A-Rod that about crippled them. The one on green broke up a DP and allowed the go ahead run to score.

Losers always whine about their best. Winners go home and fuck the prom queen.

by Goose on Feb 15, 2007 7:39 PM PST up 0 recs

Sort of.

But then, sort of no.

by Jeff on Feb 15, 2007 7:39 PM PST up 0 recs

I try not to think of Beltre

swinging at breaking balls low and away, especially sliders. Brings up too many painful memories.

by Slozbury Stouvre on Feb 15, 2007 7:45 PM PST up 0 recs

It was pretty sweet when he had that HR

off that pitch up by his eyes. Man I miss baseball. This part of the year blows. No baseball. No football. NBA sucks until the playoffs cause half the teams are garbage. Now I'm reduced to dreaming about Beltre's badass HRs of last year.

by Edgar for Pres on Feb 15, 2007 7:50 PM PST up 0 recs

Yep

Mike Greenberg isn't a real baseball fan. He said the offseason goes by in the blink of an eye.

Hot potato is an entirely different game when you're starving

by Mariner John on Feb 15, 2007 8:27 PM PST up 0 recs

The only thing worse than February...

...is March.

I don't mind basketball as long as it keeps its distance, but when NCAA basketball gets all up in my face, no amount of Spring Training games can make up for that.

by AnotherAaron on Feb 15, 2007 8:41 PM PST up 0 recs

so true

the only thing that annoys me more than b-ball is crappy b-ball that everyone goes around being extra excited about, because their retarded cousin had special ed classes in Gonzaga and so gooooo crappy b-ball! whooo!
It wouldn't bother me so much, but with opening day just around the corner, i get real ornery.

by Mere Tantalisers on Feb 16, 2007 5:14 AM PST up 0 recs

March bball is amazing

I totally forgot about it. That's always the best college bball. I didn't even know there were people out there who didn't like it. Are you sure you guys have a soul?

by Edgar for Pres on Feb 16, 2007 10:07 AM PST up 0 recs

Basketball is a boring, boring sport

Why? Because it's repetitive.

by Llewdor on Feb 16, 2007 12:56 PM PST up 0 recs

Yep, I never could get into basketball.

Or "African Handball" as a friend of mine calls it.

Dribble the ball to one side of the court,shoot it at the basket, dribble the ball to the other side, shoot it at the basket, dribble the ball to the other side, shoot it at the basket, ect.

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

Losers always whine about their best. Winners go home and fuck the prom queen.

by Goose on Feb 16, 2007 1:11 PM PST up 0 recs

Repetitive

And baseball isn't?

by Edgar for Pres on Feb 16, 2007 1:43 PM PST up 0 recs

Agreed

I like baseball a hell of a lot more than basketball, but I find the first four days of March Madness are vastly more entertaining than any baseball games.

by patsfan on Feb 16, 2007 3:20 PM PST up 0 recs

My issue with basketball...

There are a handful of teenagers playing pro every ear. Felix was the first teenager to play in the Bigs in, what was it, 15 years? Baseball skills are more rare, and need refinement to reach the highest level. Pro-basketball skills are within reach of high-schoolers.

I once played against some old CBA guys. They were better than any of the normal folks I'd play with, no doubt about that, but pros playing against accountants and farmers should have been a lot more lop-sided than it was.

It's often said that an average baseball fan couldn't catch a good fastball let alone hit one (not even to mention breaking balls), but an average basketball fan could most certainly score a few points in a real game (nobody plays defense, and fast breaks are gimmies).

So despite the fact that basketball skills are not even a fraction as rare as baseball skills, all the players act as if they're the coolest, most important athletes on the face of the earth. The whole sport is a joke.

by AnotherAaron on Feb 16, 2007 5:21 PM PST up 0 recs

The argument of which sport is harder

or which you need more skill is futile in my opinion. People have been debating it for ages.

I like baseball but there is no way that I think your argument will hold up well if I was more opinionated on the subject. I think one reason the age difference exists is the fact that basketball is more focused on pure athleticism than baseball and these special athletes tend to rise very fast in basketball. I don't think its a problem that players don't need to bide their time gaining respect at lower levels. Its just what the game is.

And I promise you the average basketball fan is as garbage as the average baseball fan. Baseball may have more "skill" requirements like throwing a ball within a 2 inch area from 90 ft away but basketball has more teamwork than baseball can even dream about.

by Edgar for Pres on Feb 17, 2007 2:00 AM PST up 0 recs

That HR

...which game was it in?

MarkE's M's attendance:
25/4/06 - Mariners 0 Tigers 2

P1 W0 L1 (.000)

by MarkE on Feb 16, 2007 12:49 AM PST up 0 recs

Against the Yankees in August

Karstens vs. Baek, Beltre had two homers (Karstens, Villone) and a badass takeout slide that night.

by Graham on Feb 16, 2007 5:07 AM PST up 0 recs

He had one vs. Baltimore too

but that might've been earlier in the year

Hot potato is an entirely different game when you're starving

by Mariner John on Feb 16, 2007 5:51 PM PST up 0 recs

You guys are crazy

That is all.

by Graham on Feb 15, 2007 11:55 PM PST 0 recs

I like the term

"Wishful"

How in the name of Zeus's butthole did you get out of your cell?

by Scruffy Lefty on Feb 16, 2007 8:32 AM PST up 0 recs

I like the term 'crazy'

Isn't it ironic that I got teased for still liking Beltre at the beginning of last year? :P

by Graham on Feb 16, 2007 2:21 PM PST up 0 recs

.275/.337/.478

I honestly thought I would be higher than average on this one. This means I probably won't be on any players that really are going to help the team at all (my .590 for Bloomquist might actually be above average!).

FTR I do have him with the highest OPS (.815) on the team.

by Josh on Feb 16, 2007 4:41 PM PST 0 recs