Lopez Community Projection Results

by Jeff on Feb 12, 2007 9:41 PM PST in Regular News

I busted my hand up pretty bad this afternoon, which makes typing a chore, so this is going to be brief. Anyway, about 160 of you have weighed in:

AB: 587
H: 167
2B: 32
3B: 5
HR: 15
BB: 32
HBP: 7
K: 81
BA: .285 (.018)
OBP: .330 (.019)
SLG: .435 (.037)
IsoPa: .045 (.010)
IsoPo: .150 (.024)

(Note: "IsoPa" refers to "Isolated Patience", or OBP - BA, while "IsoPo" refers to "Isolated Power, or SLG - BA. For the rate stats, the standard deviation is listed in parentheses.)

In short: 84% of participants think Lopez hits for more power in 2007. A .765 OPS for a right-handed second baseman in Safeco is just about a star-level performance. The power is a point of contention, though, as there's a fairly high degree of variance within the data. Overall it's an optimistic data sample (and Lopez is only 23), but it's not without its skeptics. This'll be an interesting season to follow, if nothing else.

0 recs | Comment 19 comments

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Eeps.

Hope the hand is okay, Jeff. We need those fingers to keep typing.

That's a right kerfuffle!

by Phildopip on Feb 12, 2007 9:50 PM PST 0 recs

You and me both.

by Jeff on Feb 12, 2007 9:59 PM PST up 0 recs

Bad hand?

What did you do to it? I'm not a faith-healer myself, but I got a guy with some snakes that just might help you out.

by TheEmrys on Feb 12, 2007 10:15 PM PST 0 recs

Cleaning chem glassware.

It shattered. Happens.

by Jeff on Feb 12, 2007 10:21 PM PST up 0 recs

The dangerous life of an academic!

That sucks though.

by Edgar for Pres on Feb 12, 2007 10:29 PM PST up 0 recs

Chem glassware

When I was taking second year chem in high school, one of my classmates synthesized nitrogen triiodide the week before Christmas. He put the crystals in a covered water filled beaker, which he stored in his lab drawer over Christmas vacation. Unbeknownst to him, the beaker tipped while he was closing the drawer, and over the Christmas break he had an explosion in his lab drawer. I was around when he was cleaning up the mess (out of sight of the teacher). There were still some undetonated crystals in mixed in with the glass shards; as he removed pieces of glass periodically there would be another small explosion. He wound up with more than a few cuts on his hands and forearms before he was done.

by Steve Nelson on Feb 12, 2007 10:31 PM PST up 0 recs

It's not all bad.

When I was in college, my friend cut himself up pretty bad with broken glassware in the lab. He parlayed that into an extra hour on the midterm - and even though he couldn't write as fast, he could think as quickly as ever. When the test grades came out, he was something like 2 standard deviations above the mean.

Hope your hand gets better.

Visiting A's Fan

by salb918 on Feb 13, 2007 10:31 AM PST up 0 recs

Ugh. Don't Remind Me...

Back in high school, I was the only person in my class to get an "A" in the first semester of chem class (and I actually got an "A-"). The second semester was spent mostly on qualitative analysis, where the teacher (an absolute a-hole) gave the better students in the first semester the harder quals. To make a long story short, a big part of the reason why my second semester grade sucked so bad was moreso because I ran out of time doing the analyses when my stupid chem partner kept breaking the glassware and we had to start all over again.

Fark, that sucked! I actually would've probably done well at chemistry had I not been so discouraged by that frickin' partner, and one of my worst teachers ever. In fact, and I'm not kidding, someone several years after I graduated got arrested for poisoning his coffee. He was that bad of a teacher...

Iceberg, right ahead!

by PositivePaul on Feb 13, 2007 11:45 AM PST up 0 recs

Jeff

I've been thinking about these. I think these projections will work really well to show how much error we have in our projections. Since we have all the uncertainties for all the "outcome" stats (HR, AB, ect), it would be better to propagate the error to find the error in the rate stats (BA, OBP, SLG). Its not a huge deal but I might send you a little spreadsheet to do it. If you do it that way then you can breakdown where our error is coming from and you could say something like "We are not very certain about Lopez's power but most of this uncertainty comes from the fact that we do not have a good idea of how many HRs he'll hit." (I tried to do it a little on the YuBet spreadsheet but I wouldn't trust those formulas and they don't show a breakdown of where the error comes from at all.)

I think deep down he is the type of hitter who could put up the power we are predicting. I only hope he walks as much as we want him to.

by Edgar for Pres on Feb 12, 2007 10:27 PM PST 0 recs

Looks a lot like

the CHONE projection for Lopez. Interesting.

It's somewhat interesting that this projection is a little less optimistic than the (admittedly much smaller) community projection at minorleagueball.

by marc w on Feb 13, 2007 8:57 AM PST 0 recs

BA Variance

I find it funny that we projected far less variance for batting average than OBP and SLG, even though the real world typically works the other way around.

by Llewdor on Feb 13, 2007 9:33 AM PST 0 recs

New Comments

Sometimes I come back to some of the threads I find more interesting to see what additional comments have been made.

Is there any way of identifying visually which comments are new? If there is I wouldn't have to read through the entire thread again.

We are the holler men, we are the glove men, mouthpiece filled with plug: ptoo!

by Celadus on Feb 13, 2007 12:17 PM PST 0 recs

Doesn't the red "[new]"

Thing kinda give it away?

by Graham on Feb 13, 2007 12:22 PM PST up 0 recs

Graham:

Evidently I'm not a visual kind of guy.

We are the holler men, we are the glove men, mouthpiece filled with plug: ptoo!

by Celadus on Feb 13, 2007 3:41 PM PST up 0 recs

two things I can think of

if you're not logged on to the site when you load it, it will only tell you how many comments each thread has, else it will have in parentheses how many new there are. Otherwise, you need to turn cookies on, or at least enable them for LL.

But that's coming from a guy who only learned HTML from the posting instructions at USSM, so you might want to get a second opinion.

by Mere Tantalisers on Feb 13, 2007 5:54 PM PST up 0 recs

Do any of you guys see

some of the last viewed [new] comments as [new] comments. It fixes itself and updates with the actual new comments after I reload. Happens every once in a while and its like the page is cached or something. I'm using Opera. Its just a little annoying sometimes.

by Edgar for Pres on Feb 14, 2007 12:04 AM PST up 0 recs