BP Future Shock: Mariners Top 11 Prospects

by patsfan on Dec 13, 2007 3:09 PM PST Comment 68 comments

Five-Star Prospects

Jeff Clement, C

Four-Star Prospects

Chris Tillman, RHP
Carlos Triunfel, SS

Three-Star Prospects

Wladimir Balentien, OF
Juan Ramirez, RHP
Phillipe Aumont, RHP
Michael Saunders, OF

Two-Star Prospects

Tony Butler, LHP
Robert Rohrbaugh, LHP
Greg Halman, OF
Danny Carroll, OF

Just Missing: Matt Mangini, 3B; Edward Paredes, LHP; Matt Tuiasosopo, 3B

I'm kind of surprised Butler only gets two stars, but the rest looks good. Goldstein also mentions that Morrow has been the talk of the VWL with improved command while maintaining his great stuff, and that the system has more high-ceiling talent than almost any other, even if there isn't a ton of depth. (link here)

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I'd switch Clement and Triunfel

Otherwise I think that looks about right.

Yesterday's Pants
A blog-thingy about the Mariners and stuff.

by BrettJMiller on Dec 13, 2007 3:14 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

He's probably too young to get five stars.

I overvalue prospects

by Thingray on Dec 13, 2007 3:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

And Clement's too old

by marc w on Dec 13, 2007 3:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Wha?!?

He's not that old, especially for a catching prospect.

I overvalue prospects

by Thingray on Dec 13, 2007 3:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Really?

Pudge Rodriguez and Johnny Bench broke in to MLB at 19.

Gary Carter was 20 I think
Yogi Berra/Carlton Fisk were 21.

Mauer was 21
Brian McCann was 22
Kurt Suzuki was 23
Russ Martin was 23

Clement will turn 25 next year. Yes, he made his debut at 24, and that's fine. But it's not true that catchers generally don't break into MLB until they're 28 or something.

by marc w on Dec 13, 2007 3:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Varitek was 26.

Just sayin'.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." -- Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/milb-mariners/

by JY on Dec 13, 2007 3:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

2007 was Clement's "Age 23 season"

Next year will be his "age 24 season," as his birthday is not until August. A prospect, regardless of position, should not be considered old for making his major league debut during his age 23 season.

by G_ on Dec 13, 2007 4:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

a five-star prospect

regardless of personal differences in defining 'five star,' probably should make his major league debut a bit earlier than that.

by marc w on Dec 13, 2007 4:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

That's unreasonable

You are basically saying that a college-drafted player cannot be a five-star prospect unless he makes his major league debut in his first full year of professional ball.

Clement was drafted at age 21 (like most college draftees), made his full season debut in his age 22 season (during which he missed significant time to injuries), and made his major league debut in his age 23 season.

Fellow Goldstein five-star prospect Jacoby Ellsbury was taken in the 2005 draft and made his major league debut this year too. Does anybody think he is too old?

by G_ on Dec 13, 2007 5:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

This may blow your mind

but I think Jacoby Ellsbury is nowhere close to a five star prospect.

cool?

Look, Kurt Suzuki was a college draftee too. Not saying I'd rather have him than Clement, but you see the point. We're at the point where it'd be rad to see more production and less speculation with the guy. NONE of this means he's not a prospect, or a good prospect. But it seems sort of strange to say he's an elite/one of the best at his position type guys when he's been around a bit and hasn't really dominated at any level.
Maybe if he had an Alex Gordon type year in the minors, but the M's were bringing him along slowly I could see it. But how is he a five star when he had a nice/solid year in his age 23 season?

by marc w on Dec 14, 2007 12:04 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think it's simply because he's a catcher

I probably would only have him as a 4-star guy, but I think that's Goldstein's rationale. He's by far the most advanced catching prospect in the game right now.

by patsfan on Dec 14, 2007 6:41 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Most advanced catching prospect?

Clement's basically the same age as Joe Mauer, and he's older than Brian McCann/Jarrod Saltalamacchia.

Given the questions about his defense - and again, he's really improved there - how can he be ahead of these guys?
He's a five star (or four) not because he's the most advanced - he's clearly still got a ways to go on defense to be ranked with the top guys there - but because he had such impressive power in college. People love his swing and think that if he can put it together, he'd be an amazing offensive force at that position. But, y'know, so far, it hasn't really shown up for long stretches in the minors.

He's young, he's got time, but he's 24 and his ranking is still based way more on projection than performance.

by marc w on Dec 14, 2007 9:11 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Umm...

....aren't Mauer, Saltamachia et al already in the big leagues? I.e., NON-prospects?

by rtang on Dec 14, 2007 9:43 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Those guys aren't prospects though

They are established major league catchers (well, maybe not Salty, but he got a lot of ML at-bats last year and has a starting job with Texas) while Clement appeared in 9 games last year and is likely to start in AAA in 2008. He's clearly behind those guys.

Anyways, I generally agree with your assessment and don't think he's really a 5-star guy, I'm just trying to offer a possible rationale for why someone might rank him as such. Only 4 everyday ML catchers posted an .800+ OPS last season.

by patsfan on Dec 14, 2007 9:54 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Well, if Clement's behind those three

can you really call him a five-star prospect?

by Jeff on Dec 14, 2007 9:56 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Sure you can

Mauer & McCann are top 5 players at their positions and Salty was an extremely well-regarded prospect who acquitted himself very well in his first taste of the majors and was the major piece in a trade for one of the better first basemen in the game.

To provide an analogy, I'm totally comfortable calling, say, Clay Buchholz or Joba Chamberlain a 5-star prospect even though he's behind, like, Kazmir-Felix-Lincecum.

Again, I'm not saying that Clement is nearly as good a prospect as Buchholz or Joba, because he's certainly not, but the fact that he isn't as advanced yet as three of the top young catchers in the game shouldn't be a factor in whether or not he's an elite prospect. If Goldstein is projecting him to be an all-star catcher, then he's deserved of 5-star status. I don't necessarily agree with his evidence but his conclusion is logical for what he believes.

by patsfan on Dec 14, 2007 11:35 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Ok, but to continue Jeff's question

if there's a good 1b prospect somewhere in the minors, and he's the same age as, oh, Ryan Howard/Kotchman/Prince Fielder or something, but he's still in the minors...
your argument would/could be that he's a five-star guy because he's NOT in the majors? Because he's the best at his position, once you filter out all the guys who have performed better and have advanced further?

wow.

Just as long as we're all clear that Clement is in the top, oh, 25% of MLB catchers under 25-30. Not top 10%, not THE top - he's safely in the top half. Is that what it takes to be a five-star prospect? I don't get it.

Look, it's a totally fair point that he may be an all-star someday. It's true. But he's 24 and his one plus-plus tool hasn't really shown up yet. I just can't for the life of me figure out why that makes him 5-star.

by marc w on Dec 14, 2007 1:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

You are faulting him

for coming up at the same time as several other excellent catching prospects. For the first half of this decade, how many elite catching prospects were there? Victor Martinez is pretty much it until Mauer debuts in 2004. Mauer has been followed by McCann and Martin, and then Saltalamacchia broke in the same season as Clement. Catchers with Clement's bat are rare, so he should not be faulted for the historical accident that he was born in 1983 instead of 1978.

Goldstein obviously rates position scarcity highly (maybe too much). But once you place catching scarcity in historical context, that is where the stars are coming from.

by G_ on Dec 14, 2007 9:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

How can anyone...

be the same age as a 28 year old, a 25 year old AND a 24 year old?

Mauer, McCann, and Salty were drafted 4, 3, and 2 years before Clement. Yes, they all made it to the majors with astounding speed, but you can't just use age as a blanket standard when he's been a professional baseball player for 2-4 years fewer than the guys you're comparing him to.

For it is the greatest truth of our age: information is not knowledge. -Caleb Carr

by helfgott on Dec 14, 2007 10:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

None of that is my argument.

by patsfan on Dec 14, 2007 11:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Where did all this Joba hype come from?

by Graham on Dec 14, 2007 2:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Look who he plays for

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Dec 14, 2007 2:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Counterpoint: Phil Hughes

by Graham on Dec 14, 2007 2:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think one of the guys from THT

said that Joba is currently better because he very recently changed his form, and that Phil Hughes is likely to lose a lot of power in his fastball.

But I'm just repeating what I read. Not what I know anything about. From what I can tell, that's one of the reasons people starting getting on the Joba train.

Jose Vidro (DH - Ms) was arrested today in an Idaho Bathroom for having a wide stance and sucking.

by Librocrat on Dec 14, 2007 3:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Phil Hughes

had just as much hype, if not more. He was a top 5/top 3 guy in all of baseball coming into 2007.

Chamberlain was just the guy that moved up the most this year; he was the 2007 version of Hughes/Buchholz in 2006.

that, and the whole post-season thing; that made Joba the yankees version of Ellsbury. Actually, given that, I sort of see your point...

by marc w on Dec 14, 2007 4:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Look at the hype we had for Mark Lowe

when he came up at the end of a season and mowed hitters down.

Now make him a Yankee and turn up the PR machine to 11.

I overvalue prospects

by Thingray on Dec 14, 2007 2:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, but we weren't insane enough

To say he was the best starter prospect in baseball...

by Graham on Dec 14, 2007 2:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

We're not Yankee fans.

Thank God.

I overvalue prospects

by Thingray on Dec 14, 2007 2:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

It sure would suck to like a team that always makes the playoffs and can bring in whichever players they want.

by Jeff on Dec 14, 2007 2:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

There is something to be said for having

to wait for success. I'd rather be an M's fan and feel the absolute ecstasy that comes with a playoff run, than be a Yankees fan and be pissed when we don't win the WS.

I overvalue prospects

by Thingray on Dec 14, 2007 2:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah,

I'd hate to be an insufferable arrogant asshole like Yankees fans.

by Graham on Dec 14, 2007 2:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

well

you're not a yankee fan, but....

by marc w on Dec 14, 2007 4:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Hence ':P'

by Graham on Dec 14, 2007 4:10 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

People are soon going to learn

the difference between being a reliever and being a starter.

by Jeff on Dec 14, 2007 2:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

He wants to bring the heat,

and announce his presence with authority.

I overvalue prospects

by Thingray on Dec 14, 2007 2:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

You don't need a quadrophonic Blaupunkt

what you need is a curveball.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Dec 14, 2007 2:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Anything that flies that far should

have a stewardess on it.

I overvalue prospects

by Thingray on Dec 14, 2007 2:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Catchers usually break in later though.

Listing guys that had more time in the minors, or were rushed up to the show, or are just freaks of nature doesn't prove that every catching prospect is up by 23.

I overvalue prospects

by Thingray on Dec 13, 2007 3:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

many do

I'm not sure about most.

The point is, he's old for a list of catching prospects, not to mention baseball prospects.
He's older than other C prospects that already have a year of experience or more.

None of this means that he's a bust, or he's DOOOOOMED or anything like that. It's just that plenty of other C 'spects have moved a lot faster, so his age can no longer be ignored with a 'oh, he's a catcher' response.
To me, he can't be a 'five star' prospect at this age, given the questions that continue to swirl about D (though he took a step forward on that this year), and given that he hasn't consistently demonstrated exceptional power yet. 20 HRs playing 1/2 your games at Cheney is nothing to sneeze at, but it's also not exactly... amazing. Put those things together WITH his age, and, oh, I'd say four or three star.

The quibble is with him being ranked amongst the elite in all of baseball. I'm hopeful that he'll one day get there, but his performace to date doesn't exactly scream HOF, and his age means there's less projection we can reasonably do. Your mileage may vary.

by marc w on Dec 13, 2007 3:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I love Clement to death

And even I wouldn't give him 5 stars at this point.

by Graham on Dec 13, 2007 3:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe that's the problem.

Ease up on the boy a bit, you're killing him!

I overvalue prospects

by Thingray on Dec 13, 2007 3:51 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Me either...

But his bat is more valuable to the M's in Safeco than a lot of other prospects' bats might be...

"I restore a sense of childlike wonder to people's lives; you give them Zunes and Vista." -- Fake Steve Jobs to Borg employees

by PositivePaul on Dec 13, 2007 3:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Hard to argue with that logic.

And I agree he shouldn't be at the top of the list. But he still hasn't lost his "prospect" status in my mind. It's not like he's Nick Green or something.

I overvalue prospects

by Thingray on Dec 13, 2007 3:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Sure

I think the statement that Clement != Nick Green is something we can all agree on.

btw, LL was a haven of Nick Green fans last year. Where'd they all go?

by marc w on Dec 13, 2007 3:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Beltre killed him, along with their hopes/dreams

Remember this?

by Graham on Dec 13, 2007 3:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Before I knew who he really was,

I saw his AAA numbers and went "wow!", but then I found out he was a AAAA type guy, and not a prospect.

I overvalue prospects

by Thingray on Dec 13, 2007 4:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Yah, didnt he just get a gold star

for not pissing himself not too long ago? Can't give someone that age 5 stars

I fucking hate you Mariners

by kentroyals5 on Dec 13, 2007 3:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Goldstein

Goldstein, who may be the only reason I still subscribe to Baseball Prospectus, does a pretty good job incorporating both scouting and statistical data into his articles.

Some of the good news was that he (or the scouts he talked to) thought Clement has sufficiently improved his defense to rate as "adequate" behind the plate.

The bad news was that he thought Balentien has some work to do, including a criticism that "he's yet to learn how to make adjustments with his swing to shorten it with two strikes."

by G_ on Dec 13, 2007 3:18 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

He's not wrong, but...

did you see the AB he had in his last game, vs. Cle? The HR was one thing, but he got two quick strikes in the other AB, then worked the count a bit and had a short, quick little swing that resulted in a sac fly.
I don't have MLB tv - am I remembering that right? I think I was cheering louder for that AB than the home run.

one ab does not a refutation of a scouting report make, but it's encouraging.

by marc w on Dec 13, 2007 3:47 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Wait.

11. Danny Carroll, OF

Really? Okay.

I overvalue prospects

by Thingray on Dec 13, 2007 3:23 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

tworsandtwols will be happy

congratulations daniel on making the mariners prospect list!!

by seattlebruin on Dec 13, 2007 3:28 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

That's him???

Jose Vidro (DH - Ms) was arrested today in an Idaho Bathroom for having a wide stance and sucking.

by Librocrat on Dec 13, 2007 3:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

No.

Same name though.

by Jeff on Dec 13, 2007 3:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

damn you jeff

for beating me to that comment by 23 seconds

by seattlebruin on Dec 13, 2007 3:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

lol no

prospect /w same name. i'm too lazy to go dig up the draft day diaries

by seattlebruin on Dec 13, 2007 3:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

But if they keep calling him Danny

I will not be a happy dude.

by tworsandtwols on Dec 13, 2007 9:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Butler

I had heard somewhere that they were trying to toy with his arm angle, make it more over the top so he could get greater downward movement. I think that's a big part of why he spent some time on the DL this year.

I'm not sure if he went back or just got used to the changes, but check his post ASB stats to his pre ones. They're markedly better in all areas. Not quite as good as what he did in his first year, but impressive nonetheless.

I think some of the minor league community has soured on him a little, and other left-handers like Kiker, Kershaw, and Anderson have pretty much shot up the charts, but I'd put him in the three star group, personally.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." -- Samuel Beckett http://mvn.com/milb-mariners/

by JY on Dec 13, 2007 3:30 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I'm surprised to see Tillman/Tri on the same level

since they're definitely not in my head.

by Jeff on Dec 13, 2007 3:34 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Where would you put them?

I overvalue prospects

by Thingray on Dec 13, 2007 3:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I just don't think of Tillman as highly as Tri

Not totally sure why that is.

by Jeff on Dec 13, 2007 3:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I still think Tri is listed in that section

because he is so young, and so much can happen before he makes the bigs. What if he never develops any power? What if he balloons up to 300 pounds? What if, what if, what if...

I overvalue prospects

by Thingray on Dec 13, 2007 3:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Because Triunfel will be starting in AA

Having turned 18 3 months earlier, perhaps.

by Graham on Dec 13, 2007 3:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Personality vs skill?

Tillman's myspace page had him wearing an Angels' cap. . . .

Tillman got attitude right?

Go Fo Broke!

by eknpdx on Dec 13, 2007 3:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I've heard he had a bit of an attitude

"problem" but that was when he wa originally drafted, I haven't heard anything since.

I overvalue prospects

by Thingray on Dec 13, 2007 4:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

The rating levels may not be comparable

for hitters and pitchers... I have no idea if that's correct or not for the way Goldstein does it, but I know that it's the case on minorleagueball.

by patsfan on Dec 13, 2007 3:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Ehh

Clement a five star prospect? Rohrbaugh? Carroll?

Nothing against KG, but whatever.

by davidcameron on Dec 13, 2007 8:06 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Just wait until...

the Sickels list comes out.

For it is the greatest truth of our age: information is not knowledge. -Caleb Carr

by helfgott on Dec 15, 2007 7:20 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I was surprised

to see how highly he rated our guys. I mean I expected Triunfel to be ranked higher than Clement, and with Clement a five and Jones, Felix, and Morrow ahead of him, that seems to give us quite a stacked system/young guys at the majors. I thought it was all going to be Jones and Triunfel at the top, but the Goldstein's high marks for Butler and Tillman give me hope. I figured they were more organizational prospects who weren't highly touted anywhere else.

I also think that Triunfel got rated lower because of his lack of power and eye. Obviously he's had an amazing run and we all think he'll be amazing, but there are a few things he hasn't shown yet that I'm sure when he does, he'll rank well ahead of everyone besides Felix and Jones. A lot can happen in AA-Majors.

by jullberg on Dec 14, 2007 9:25 AM PST reply actions 0 recs