Trade Ideas

by Wilder83 on Dec 11, 2007 2:55 PM PST Comment 44 comments

Seeing that Jason Bay may be on the block, it got me thinking what kind of deal we could get for him. So, I would like to know if this would be something possible and ideal for our needs.

Mariners get:

Jason Bay
Ian Snell

Pirates get:

Adam Jones
Brandon Morrow
Jeff Clement

Is this too much, too little, or is it blasphemy?

Would the Pirates entertain such a deal?

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On first thought, this seems like way too much

On second though, it still seems like too much, although not as bad as my first impression.

I like Snell a lot, but he's not Bedard, and Bay I am unsure about.

I have my own trade proposal, though: Wladimir Balentien for Rich Harden. Thoughts?

by Graham on Dec 11, 2007 3:01 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Interesting

obviously could never happen, but interesting.

by Matthew on Dec 11, 2007 3:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Worth the risk

If Wlad isn't going to be a longterm option in this organization (except at DH), then I wouldn't be opposed to taking the risk on Rich Harden.

by Wilder83 on Dec 11, 2007 3:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Harden

Does DL time count in service time? Cot's shows him with 3 years of service time, but I know he's been on the 25 man roster for at least 4 years.

His 2009 option is for $7m, which for beane might be enough to decline if Harden can prove he is healthy in 2008.

I'd rather take that gamble and wait. Harden grew up a Mariner's fan, and is from Victoria BC, so we've got a legitimate shot when he hits the market.

Go Fo Broke!

by eknpdx on Dec 11, 2007 3:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

No way I give up that much for those guys

I don't see Jason Bay as any solution for the Ms. He's not a good fit here.

by Matthew on Dec 11, 2007 3:02 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Fits into the outfield if Jones is shipped away

by Wilder83 on Dec 11, 2007 3:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

If by "fits"

you mean "can stand there just like", then yes. But I'd still keep Jones over Bay.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Dec 11, 2007 3:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Snell is more the centerpiece than Bay

replacing Jones.

I think the trade off is that we can sacrifice a few years of control on players and have a ready starting pitcher and outfielder.

But then again, this may not be in our best interest. I actually think adding Clement puts this deal over the top, but there might be someone else we could fit in there.

What about this?

Wlad
Morrow
Clement

Wlad is a possible upgrade to Jose Bautista and the Pirates may entertain Wlad instead of Jones.

by Wilder83 on Dec 11, 2007 3:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Why exactly are you willing

to get rid of some of the best talent the M's have in their system for one decent pitcher and one interchangeable spare part?

I should really stop reading these threads, trade speculation drives me nuts.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Dec 11, 2007 3:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Eh, speculation is what makes the offseason fun

Debating is all we have until Spring Training.

by Wilder83 on Dec 11, 2007 3:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Debating is only fun

if you make credible points.

Otherwise I'm just arguing with communists again.

by Llewdor on Dec 12, 2007 9:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Has anything not been credible?

by Wilder83 on Dec 12, 2007 1:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

He'd be a downgrade over Jones IMO.

Jason Bay is a big name All-Star, only because every team has to be represented.

I think you'd be giving up way too much in that trade, and Bay would be a bust.

I overvalue prospects

by Thingray on Dec 11, 2007 3:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Bay had a bad season

He still has the talent, but is a little bit older than I would like.

by Wilder83 on Dec 11, 2007 3:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Bay has talent,

but I still think Jones is better (and as you point out, younger).

Snell is good, but he doesn't excite me enough to scrape the upper levels of the minors bare for him.

I overvalue prospects

by Thingray on Dec 11, 2007 3:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Bay is a bad fit

because he's a RH, mostly pull hitter who plays mediocre defense. Honestly, I cannot see him being anything other than say 2007 Jose Guillen in SafeCo.

by Matthew on Dec 11, 2007 4:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure he could match Guillen.

Like you said, he's a dead pull hitter, whereas Jose could hit for some power the other way.

I overvalue prospects

by Thingray on Dec 11, 2007 4:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Speaking of Jose,

now that he's gone, who on this team takes the "bat-shit crazy" role now?

We've had one for each of the past couple years. We should have signed Milton Bradley.

I overvalue prospects

by Thingray on Dec 11, 2007 4:14 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Too damn right

by Graham on Dec 11, 2007 4:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

McLaren.

Jose Vidro (DH - Ms) was arrested today in an Idaho Bathroom for having a wide stance and sucking.

by Librocrat on Dec 11, 2007 4:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

He's too laid back.

You never think he's going to shank someone.

I overvalue prospects

by Thingray on Dec 11, 2007 4:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Really?

Are you sure? Because whenever I listen to him speak, I think he's fucking nuts.

Jose Vidro (DH - Ms) was arrested today in an Idaho Bathroom for having a wide stance and sucking.

by Librocrat on Dec 11, 2007 4:36 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Stupid-crazy? Yes.

Bat-shit? He doesn't really give me that impression.

I overvalue prospects

by Thingray on Dec 11, 2007 4:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

get some players to steal vidro's food

for a week or two, and we could have a problem

by marinerschas2 on Dec 11, 2007 4:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Wait.

Halfway through the season, he'll storm Tacoma and kill all of our prospects.

Jose Vidro (DH - Ms) was arrested today in an Idaho Bathroom for having a wide stance and sucking.

by Librocrat on Dec 11, 2007 4:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

By benching them and giving them slivers?

Which then get infected and cause a slow painful death?

I overvalue prospects

by Thingray on Dec 11, 2007 5:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Bingo.

Jose Vidro (DH - Ms) was arrested today in an Idaho Bathroom for having a wide stance and sucking.

by Librocrat on Dec 11, 2007 5:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Norm Norm

"I restore a sense of childlike wonder to people's lives; you give them Zunes and Vista." -- Fake Steve Jobs to Borg employees

by PositivePaul on Dec 11, 2007 4:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

That is a possiblity,

but how much can an insane bullpen coach really affect the team as a whole?

That's a long run from the bullpen just to shank somebody.

I overvalue prospects

by Thingray on Dec 11, 2007 4:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

That would be the funniest thing ever.

Jose Vidro (DH - Ms) was arrested today in an Idaho Bathroom for having a wide stance and sucking.

by Librocrat on Dec 11, 2007 4:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

It would be funnier

if they still had bullpen cars.

--aaron c.

by acblue on Dec 11, 2007 4:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

That's a great mental picture.

Remember the old tug that used to bring the pitchers in in the Kingdome?

I'm picturing Norm flying in on that screaming like a pirate!

I overvalue prospects

by Thingray on Dec 11, 2007 4:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm...

You mean the U.S.S. Mariner???

"I restore a sense of childlike wonder to people's lives; you give them Zunes and Vista." -- Fake Steve Jobs to Borg employees

by PositivePaul on Dec 11, 2007 9:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

That's the one!

I overvalue prospects

by Thingray on Dec 12, 2007 10:07 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Bay has way more talent than Guillen though

PNC isn't a hitters park and Bay put up 3 straight 900+ OPS years there. Guillen's never done anything like that. He's also not a deal pull hitter when it comes to his HRs. Overall he is, but he's seemed to adjust a bit to take advantage of PNC's easier dimensions the other way.

PNC is actually a very good proxy for SafeCo, both are mild pitchers parks overall that favor LHB much more over RHB in terms of dimensions.

Moving from the NL Central to the AL West would knock down Bay's numbers though. He's put up a .877 OPS at home for his career. I'd knock that down to .850 or so given the tougher competition and his road OPS would take a similar hit. And that's if 2007 was a fluke and not a trend.

by Matthew on Dec 11, 2007 4:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Injury?

I seem to recall a leg injury of some sort, one that bothered him all year. BUt he was a gamer who played through the pain.

He and Ibanez would get along well.

Go Fo Broke!

by eknpdx on Dec 11, 2007 4:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Auto DQ then

the last thing this team needs is a gamer. We need more people who gripe about minor injuries. This team needs TO.

by Matthew on Dec 11, 2007 4:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I'll take your word for it,

because you obviously know more about him that I do. I just don't think he's a great fit, I know his D is "meh", and I wouldn't be willing to part with Jones for him.

I overvalue prospects

by Thingray on Dec 11, 2007 4:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

But I do think he's better than Guillen (if 2007 is a fluke).

by Matthew on Dec 11, 2007 4:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

You're not talking to a big Guillen fan anyway,

so I'll just agree with you!

I overvalue prospects

by Thingray on Dec 11, 2007 4:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

You sure about that?

Here's Bay's hittracker HR chart.

Here's Guillen's.

advantage: Bay.

by marc w on Dec 11, 2007 4:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Not anymore I'm not.

I guess my impression of Bay was incorrect. Of course most of it is coming from ESPn highlights, so I wasn't exactly well informed in the first place.

I apologize for talking out my ass.

I overvalue prospects

by Thingray on Dec 11, 2007 5:07 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Look at 2006

Bay only had 4 HR to RF. There is no data there for 2005, but the hit chart off mlb.com for 2005 showed only 1 HR to RF at PNC.

Much like the rest of 2007, his HR chart is out of line with the previous years.

by G_ on Dec 11, 2007 5:12 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I think that's probably what it'd take

to get Snell and Bay, but, no thank you. I had to think about that for a bit, but then I looked up Snell's numbers, and they're not as good as I thought they were. 27 year old GB pitcher who strikes out a lot of batters, walks a lot, and got a bit lucky with the HRs last year which artificially deflated his ERA. A solid 3 on a contending team, basically. Not worth it.

by sammy on Dec 11, 2007 6:03 PM PST reply actions 0 recs