Community Projection: Jose Guillen
The eighth in a non-alphabetical and irregularly updated series of review pieces for each of the players we predicted last winter. (All entries are linked in the left-hand sidebar, below the Rotoworld stuff and the interviews.)
LL/USSM Community: 456 AB's, .268/.324/.443 (n=117)
Actual Line: 593 AB's, .290/.353/.460
Closest Projection: DC_Mariner, .290/.347/.455
For once, a projection that came out comfortably below the reality, both in terms of playing time (health) and performance. The community wasn't real sure how Guillen would recover from his operation, and it was skeptical that he'd be able to put up real shiny numbers in a park that hurts right-handed power bats, but what we didn't know at the time is that Guillen likes to hit the other way, and that he does it rather often when he's playing at or near 100%. I suppose there are two things we can learn from this: (1) elbow surgery doesn't mean that much for a hitter, and (2) if you can hit in RFK, you can probably hit in Safeco. It's always nice when you can get something out of your mistakes.
The entire 2007 Jose Guillen experience cannot be considered anything but a total success for all parties involved. The Mariners dug for a bargain and wound up with a great value in right field, paying only $5.5m for an everyday 116 OPS+ who seemed to be a positive influence off the field. The fans got to root for a quality FA signing with both talent and personality instead of getting another boring retreat crammed down their throats. And Guillen was able to produce for a full year without any negative incidents, thereby getting his market value back up in time to land a bigger deal that lets him stay put in one place for three or four seasons. Yeah, the whole steroid thing is probably going to hurt him, but that only came out recently, and as far as everything else leading up to that point is concerned, I don't think it could've gone much better for anyone.
As much as most of us came to like Guillen this year, it took a little while, I think, before we really warmed up to him. He didn't get off to the best start at the plate, and an ankle problem was taking a visible toll on his range in the field. Through June 22nd Guillen was hitting only .255 with nine home runs, and while he wasn't a black hole, he was having trouble against righties, and we began to wonder if that was all there was.
It wasn't. For the next two months, Guillen flipped out, batting .344 with a .949 OPS and 41 RBI. Over those 52 games, he went o'fer on consecutive days just once, while collecting multiple hits on 22 separate occasions. As the Mariners made their unexpected charge towards the playoffs, Guillen was getting on base, hitting for average, and hitting for power, and while everything kind of dropped off pretty quickly for everyone come late August and early September, the thought of Jose Guillen became inextricably tied to the thought of the Mariners playing good baseball. He was always right in the thick of things, be it driving in a runner at the plate or animatedly congratulating someone else who had, and that, along with his persistent shit-eating grin, made him easy to like. Almost overnight, Jose Guillen became a fan favorite.
Good vibes were everywhere, and there was a point in August where it seemed like a Guillen extension with the Mariners was imminent. The team liked him, the players liked him, the fans liked him, and Guillen kept saying all the right things about wanting to stick around and actually being able to call a place home for once. Just when it felt like all Guillen had to do was sign his name on the line, though, the team started losing, and all the collective happiness disintegrated into thin air. The front office shifted its priorities and Guillen started speaking up a little more about the Eric Byrnes contract with Arizona. Suddenly the extension that we'd all been expecting to hear about for weeks started to look like it wasn't in the cards.
Now, a month and a half after the end of the season, it's clear that the front office no longer wants to give Guillen what he's looking for, and, having failed to negotiate an extension before Tuesday, Guillen's all set to hit the FA market yet again. Once he signs somewhere else, a compensatory first-round sandwich pick will be all the Mariners have left to show for the outfielder they thought they'd lock up through 2010 just a few months ago. It's never easy to lose players you like, and me, I found myself really pulling hard for the guy down the stretch. I'm going to miss Jose Guillen being a part of this ballclub.
But at the same time, it's important to remember that Jose Guillen isn't a superstar. He's replaceable. Once you account for Safeco, 2007 was probably as good as it's going to get for the guy offensively, and since he's not an asset in the field, you're talking about a corner guy who's comfortably above-average. Comfortably above-average corner guys shouldn't get $30m/3yr contracts for their age 32-34 seasons. I like Jose Guillen, but if that's what he wants - and that is what he wants - it isn't worth the commitment. Not at a position that's relatively easy to fill, and certainly not on a team that already has enough wasted money on the payroll. This is one of those times where we just have to look past our emotions and realize that the Mariners as a whole are in better position going forward without Jose Guillen than they would be with Guillen signed to a big extension.
I don't know what lies ahead for Guillen. For his sake, I hope it's big money in a city he enjoys with fans that appreciate what he brings to the table. It's weird the bonds that can form even when you only know a guy for six months, but my memories of Guillen's time spent in Seattle are indelibly positive, and he deserves to be able to settle down somewhere for three or four years. So thank you, Jose, for a good summer. I'm thankful for the production, I'm thankful for the energy, and I'm thankful for the endless supply of writing material concerning your violent rage that you did an admirable job of keeping below the surface on all but a few occasions. May you go on to greener pastures, and find yourself so affronted with the lack of an extension in Seattle that you hit as poorly against us in the future as you did against the Angels.
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Well said
by Librocrat on Nov 15, 2007 12:14 AM PST 0 recs
I've always loved the fact that Angel fans
Good luck to yeah Jose.
by Goose on Nov 15, 2007 5:08 AM PST 0 recs
Don't forget his greatest contribution
by Nadingo on Nov 15, 2007 6:32 AM PST 0 recs
Bavasi during Guillen's extension negotiatins:
by Mere Tantalisers on Nov 15, 2007 6:34 AM PST 0 recs
well, I would think
by Mere Tantalisers on
Nov 15, 2007 7:14 AM PST
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Badum Bum Ching.
by Librocrat on
Nov 15, 2007 10:06 AM PST
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I'm in the minority I guess,
I appreciate what he brought to the table offensively, but I will not miss Jose.
by Sec 108 on Nov 15, 2007 9:22 AM PST 0 recs
M's FO / Bavasi
by C Cheetah on Nov 15, 2007 9:51 AM PST 0 recs
That would be stupid of them.
by Jeff on
Nov 15, 2007 12:18 PM PST
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Added Caption to Guillen Photo:
or
Mike Hargrove: "Oh shit, I just wet my pants."
by Librocrat on Nov 15, 2007 10:54 AM PST 0 recs
I was thinking about this
I was wondering if we could have a thread before the next round of predictions/projections to discuss how we want it to work. It seems there was a little confusion on how we wanted to deal with the possibility of injury in our projections.
If we want to do median projections then only the chance of minor injuries needs to be really considered but if we want to take into account big injuries then we need to compute a mean projection.
I think its a little tough to do that just off the top of my head because basically what you are required to do is to look at a player and ask what his expected production is if he is healthy and what his production would be if he was hurt and then figure out the chance he gets hurt to figure out your average projection.
I think it'd be easier and maybe more accurate if everyone made high/med/low projections and then assigned probabilities to them. This would be more work but I think it would allow us to use more of our intuition about players by giving the projections more information. This would also allow us to give more information about high risk players than the method we use right now.
For example for Jose in 2008:
Low: 15% chance / 200 AB, 7 HR
Med: 55% chance / 550 AB, 20 HR
High: 30% chance / 600 AB, 25 HR
Using this, my mean projection is 485 AB and 18.6 HR.
I don't know what exactly we want to do but we should figure out how we want to deal with injuries. I know, this seems like really early to be thinking about this stuff but I'm interested in thoughts about it.
by Edgar for Pres on Nov 15, 2007 4:09 PM PST 0 recs
By the way, this slipped my mind last night:
I'll get to the Vidro review this weekend. That should be fun.
by Jeff on Nov 15, 2007 11:27 PM PST 0 recs
The slides were my favorite part
by Jed MC on
Nov 16, 2007 7:28 AM PST
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I've always felt that paying for superstars
This is why I think its such a shame Guillen was not resigned. Even if they are fixated on keeping Raul in left and playing Jones in right, Guillen signed to a below market rate deal (which could have been done before Byrnes went and shat in the pool) would have given the M's a trade chip more valuable than Balentien or Clement.
This is all conjecture, but with the pitching market being what it is, I think the M's would be in a much better position to trade for a #2 type if they had Guillen on a 3/21 type deal to offer as part of the package...
by Mere Tantalisers on Nov 16, 2007 7:58 AM PST 0 recs
I'd have no problem
by Edgar for Pres on
Nov 16, 2007 8:00 AM PST
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considering that marginal stars
by Mere Tantalisers on
Nov 16, 2007 8:32 AM PST
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That analogy doesn't work
by Edgar for Pres on
Nov 16, 2007 11:52 AM PST
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Some positions are easier to fill from within
I think that the offensive difference between a star corner OF and a very good one (say, Ramirez and Guillen) does not merit the 13 million per difference in salary. That money is better spent on positions where star level talent is harder to find, such as starting pitcher, 2B, CF, etc. That's all.
Vlad would be great if he could be signed to a reasonable contract. I was all for signing him back in 2003 (was it 03 he was a free agent?), but I think if you're spending in the 20mil per range, its better to put that into a position where 5-8mil per won't get you 80% of the way there.
by Mere Tantalisers on
Nov 16, 2007 12:25 PM PST
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There are no stars
by Edgar for Pres on
Nov 16, 2007 2:14 PM PST
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that wasn't my point
by Mere Tantalisers on
Nov 16, 2007 5:00 PM PST
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Good starters.
by Thingray on
Nov 16, 2007 5:04 PM PST
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Old men with impotence problems.
by Librocrat on
Nov 16, 2007 5:16 PM PST
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I agree that you should spend your money
by Edgar for Pres on
Nov 17, 2007 1:00 AM PST
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No one
by G_ on
Nov 17, 2007 12:02 PM PST
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Not totally sure on the CBA rules governing this
by Matthew on
Nov 16, 2007 8:49 AM PST
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Pretty sure they could
by Graham on
Nov 16, 2007 10:36 AM PST
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Unlike Guillen
A free agent like Guillen would get no trade protection through June 15.
by G_ on
Nov 16, 2007 10:43 AM PST
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Yup
by G_ on
Nov 16, 2007 10:40 AM PST
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That would be just fine by me
by Mere Tantalisers on
Nov 16, 2007 10:57 AM PST
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The problem is
by G_ on
Nov 16, 2007 11:20 AM PST
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The way it stands
by Mere Tantalisers on
Nov 16, 2007 12:09 PM PST
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Five roast beef sandwiches for $5?
Wait, I think I did that wrong.
by pdb on
Nov 16, 2007 12:35 PM PST
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Can't fool old Ray!
by Thingray on
Nov 16, 2007 12:36 PM PST
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OK
by Mere Tantalisers on
Nov 16, 2007 12:51 PM PST
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Nah.
Arbitration doesn't have anything to do with contract options, unless it's specifically written into the contract that the player can't be offered arbitration. AFAIK, Guillen's contract didn't have this written into it. I believe Hideki Matsui's contract and Kenji's contract eliminated arbitration as an option after their first contracts expired. I could be wrong on those two, though, but I'm almost 100% certain the M's can still offer Guillen arbitration (and, it's this act that determines whether or not they get the compensatory draft pick).
by PositivePaul on
Nov 16, 2007 12:37 PM PST
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Correct
by G_ on
Nov 16, 2007 12:52 PM PST
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