Community Projection: Ichiro
The seventh in a non-alphabetical and irregularly updated series of review pieces for each of the players we predicted last winter. (All entries are linked in the left-hand sidebar, below the Rotoworld stuff and the interviews.)
LL/USSM Community: 684 AB's, .332/.382/.442 (n=130)
Actual Line: 678 AB's, .351/.396/.431
Closest Projection: katal, .343/.392/.427
Not too bad of a group forecast, all things considered, although we gave a bit too much respect to Ichiro's power. But then, who can blame us? The projected ISO (SLG - BA) of .110 was basically right on his career mark before the year. Kudos to katal for being right on, save for a single or three. We also had a guy project a .408/.453/.543 batting line, which, for anyone other than Ichiro, would've seemed fucking crazy.
One of the greatest tragedies of the English language is that, after seven years, we still haven't been able to figure out a way to satisfactorily convey the whole Ichiro experience in words. I'm not even sure one exists. You can talk about his extraordinary bat control, his phenomenal speed, his unparalleled grace in the field, and his perplexingly hilarious interviews until you're blue in the face, but still there's something missing, something that elevates him from annoying slap hitter to justifiably beloved local superstar. And I can't for the life of me figure out exactly what it is.
We know it exists, though, which is why there was such gaiety and merriment in July when it was announced that he'd signed an extension. This was one star player who wasn't going to bolt, invariably ending up in a place that wouldn't appreciate everything he brings to the table. Ichiro is Mariner baseball, at least until Felix gets his shit together. The extension alleviated our fears of having to find a new team identity while guaranteeing to Ichiro that he'll be able to spend all of his best years in a city that loves him for what he is. A-Rod doesn't know what he left behind. Me, I consider five more seasons of Ichiro to be a sort of reward to Mariner fans as a whole for knowing how to treat their franchise icons. We deserve Ichiro, and Ichiro deserves our unconditional support. It's a perfect match.
A (suck) lot (it) of (Dave) people (Samson) expressed surprise and amazement upon hearing of the size of the extension - $90m over five years is a ton of scratch - but where I'm typically one to lambast such enormous contracts, I find Ichiro's deal to be just about perfect. Dave already made the case at some length several months ago that it's a great contract, so that's the place to go for a detailed review. If you don't have that kind of time or patience, though, here's the bottom line: Ichiro's total offensive production compares favorably to that of Grady Sizemore and Carlos Beltran, and he seems to be a plus defensive CF who's incredibly durable and who shows no signs of aging. The average Major League CF hits around .270/.330/.430 with -5 < x < 0 defense. For his career, Ichiro has hit .333/.379/.437 in a pitcher's park with awesome baserunning and 0 < x < +10 defense in center. Even setting aside his general appeal, statistically speaking he's a star player at a premium position. Those people tend to get a lot of money, and I'd much rather have Ichiro at $90m/5yr than Torii Hunter at whatever he's about to get.
I said "seems to be a plus defensive CF," by the way, because Ichiro appears to have broken the advanced metrics. David Pinto's PMR called Ichiro the second-best CF glove in the league, while UZR called him the third-worst. The Hardball Times' RZR split the difference. Make sense of that. I tend to have more faith in defensive statistics than a lot of other people, but when they're literally all over the place, then I have to rely on my eyes, and my scouting side tells me that Ichiro's a life saver out there, especially when he's playing beside a wounded buffalo in left. I honestly don't know what UZR's problem is, because very rarely do I see a ball drop that I think Ichiro should've caught. And I know it's not a bias thing, because I see it happen to Betancourt and Beltre and Jones from time to time, and I love those guys too. I guess there's just something particular about Ichiro's glovework that makes it difficult to measure.
Maybe it's because he felt rejuvenated by the team's status as a contender, but 2007 was a big year for Ichiro, as he hit wire to wire without ever going through the extended slumps that bit him in 2005 and 2006. It felt a lot like his rookie season, actually, which brought about a renewed sense of excitement and appreciation among the fan base. It's funny; never has a player worked so hard and made so many adjustments to remain basically the same kind of spectacle year in, year out. Ichiro is seemingly always evolving and always trying to stay one step ahead of the opposition, yet the output is always so familiar - handful of homers, handful of doubles, and enough infield singles to drive the other team insane. It may not be the most traditionally manly way to go about being awesome, but loving Ichiro for his rollers to short is no different than loving Jose Reyes for his steals, and besides, if you tell Ichiro that he plays like a woman, he'll probably cut you. There's more than one way to be a Hall of Fame talent, and damned if Ichiro hasn't gone and perfected the most difficult.
Throughout its history, baseball's had more than its share of superstars come and go, guys who beat the crap out of the ball or drive in 140 runs or srike out 300 batters a season. And there's always going to be more of them for as long as the game exists, with new bats and arms exploding onto the scene every year to delight the locals and state their cases for eternal fame. Baseball, however, will never have another Ichiro. There'll be guys who post similar numbers, and guys who play the same kind of defense, but no one's ever going to approximate the whole package, because it's just so uniquely him. Ichiro, you have and will always arouse the fire that's dormant in the innermost recesses of our collective soul. We're thrilled that you're ours, and when the day eventually comes that you have to bid the Mariners goodbye, I imagine there will be a pain unlike any this team has caused me in a long, long time. A lot like getting punched in the face.
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86 comments
Comments
hearing the
by CKel on Nov 12, 2007 7:42 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
UZR
So, in one sense, I think PMR/BIS data is telling us just how good Ichiro's range really is, while UZR is reminding us that it might not matter all that much if all he's doing is catching balls by calling off his neighbors.
by davidcameron on Nov 12, 2007 7:46 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
It's always hilarious
by Coach Owens on Nov 12, 2007 8:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
So then, what's the implication?
Perhaps Ichiro isn't too great at charging fly balls in front of him, but I can't imagine he's one of the worst at it.
by Jeff on Nov 12, 2007 8:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well in my opinion,
by Coach Owens on Nov 12, 2007 8:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well
I'm not saying UZR is right and PMR is wrong. I certainly don't agree that Ichiro's one of the worst defensive CFs in baseball. But I do think that UZR correctly identifies that some of the plays that Ichiro makes are discretionary plays and don't add a ton of value to the team.
by davidcameron on Nov 12, 2007 8:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't
by Coach Owens on Nov 12, 2007 8:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Cut out the "is".
by Coach Owens on Nov 12, 2007 8:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
He definitely stole a ton from Raul last year.
by Jeff on Nov 12, 2007 8:39 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Probably just the bad play
by Coach Owens on Nov 12, 2007 8:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I have no clue what is
by Coach Owens on Nov 12, 2007 8:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Best Guess
If Pinto's right and the M's pitchers gave up a lot of balls in play that were low probability of turning into outs, then UZR is probably going to punish the defenders harsher than it should. One of the main differences between the two systems is how they calculate out probability on a given play, and it definitely appears that PMR thinks the M's had less catchable balls than UZR does.
by davidcameron on Nov 12, 2007 8:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
By the way
RZR = BIS data on balls in his zones. This calls Ichiro a little bit above average.
PMR = BIS data on balls in his zones + balls out of his zone. Thinks he's amazing.
UZR = Stats data on balls in his zones, less extreme adjustment for difficulty of BIP, takes away value from out of zone plays. Thinks he sucks.
This gives us an overall picture of a guy who does a pretty solid job of catching stuff he should catch while also catching a ridiculous amount of stuff that other people should catch. To me, that sounds about right.
by davidcameron on Nov 12, 2007 9:15 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
So which one is the most
by Coach Owens on Nov 12, 2007 9:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
All of them
Overall, I think Ichiro's something like a +5 CF. Good, not great, pretty much what we should have expected when we moved him from RF - for him to have been a great CF, he'd have probably had to grade out at an Adam Everett type level as a right fielder.
by davidcameron on Nov 12, 2007 9:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Do you think the fact he was
Also, does it help or hurt Ibanez/Guillen with Ichiro stealing their balls?
by Edgar for Pres on Nov 12, 2007 9:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Why does everyone think he's
by Coach Owens on Nov 12, 2007 9:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Because he is?
But if I'm Ibanez, Ichiro is starting to piss me off.
by Goose on Nov 12, 2007 9:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Like I said though.
by Coach Owens on Nov 12, 2007 9:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Not by my definition
by Coach Owens on Nov 12, 2007 9:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, I'll tell them.
by Coach Owens on Nov 12, 2007 9:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Coach's definition
by Librocrat on Nov 12, 2007 9:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That sounds reasonable.
I've been talking to Adam Morris a little bit about Ian Kinsler, who's in pretty much the exact same boat as Ichiro. Given that I think you have a better idea of his ability at second than I do, do you think the same idea applies? Because it'd be interesting if this could explain away a lot of the discrepancies.
by Jeff on Nov 12, 2007 9:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I thought Kinsler sucks?
by Coach Owens on Nov 12, 2007 9:29 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Dewan had Ichiro 3rd
by rfloh on Nov 13, 2007 6:12 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
For the record
by Jeff on Nov 12, 2007 9:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The Mariners
by Coach Owens on Nov 12, 2007 9:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Okay, upon further review
by Jeff on Nov 12, 2007 10:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Jeff making the appeal to the 5 people
by Edgar for Pres on Nov 12, 2007 11:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I know what errors are.
by Librocrat on Nov 12, 2007 11:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
There is a big difference between me saying
by Edgar for Pres on Nov 12, 2007 11:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Someday I'll buy all the data
by Graham on Nov 13, 2007 2:31 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
all the BIS data?
by Matthew on Nov 13, 2007 9:23 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Single season data
by pdb on Nov 13, 2007 9:31 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
that's just season totals
by Matthew on Nov 13, 2007 9:49 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly my point
by pdb on Nov 13, 2007 9:51 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
by Matthew on Nov 13, 2007 10:02 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That'd be fine
by Graham on Nov 13, 2007 10:26 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Discretionary on some teams
Of course, there is the problem of determining whether the neighbors' poor performance on balls in their zone is due to their lack of range or due to ballhogging. Chicken, meet egg.
by david h on Nov 12, 2007 9:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
For me,
If it weren't for all those years in Japan, he'd easily be chasing Pete Rose's record when all is said and done.
Long Live Ichiro!
I'll leave the defensive analysis to people who are smarter than I.
by Patrick517 on Nov 12, 2007 8:02 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
No one can replace Edgar.
by Coach Owens on Nov 12, 2007 8:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
We'll see what happens....
by Patrick517 on Nov 12, 2007 8:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
So Jeff, if you could have Ichiro
by Coach Owens on Nov 12, 2007 8:08 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Uh
by Jeff on Nov 12, 2007 8:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd take Ichiro
by pdb on Nov 12, 2007 8:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Clemente's corpse isn't in the gorund.
by JI on Nov 12, 2007 8:55 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Even more reason to go with Ichiro
What, too soon?
by pdb on Nov 12, 2007 8:56 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Your assuming the skeleton is in
by JI on Nov 12, 2007 8:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Good point.
by pdb on Nov 12, 2007 9:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm a sucker for happy endings.
by JI on Nov 12, 2007 9:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Did someone say
by pdb on Nov 12, 2007 9:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
'SUCK' TOO
by JI on Nov 12, 2007 9:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
HI GUYS! THIS IS JI
by Coach Owens on Nov 12, 2007 9:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
NOW LOOK HERE JI
by JI on Nov 12, 2007 10:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well he asked it
by chrisisasavage on Nov 13, 2007 4:03 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
What, no mention of how delightfully
by Matthew on Nov 12, 2007 9:47 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
That's why Ichiro is
by Coach Owens on Nov 12, 2007 9:50 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It's like...I just imagined it...and it came true!
by Matthew on Nov 12, 2007 10:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
ZOMG!
by Coach Owens on Nov 12, 2007 10:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That reminds me
Only once did events conspire so that 1) I was at the game, 2) these ladies were at the game, and 3) Omar Vizquel hit a home run. There was much rejoicing, followed by the line that will stick in my head until the day I die. With absolute sincerity and awe, one of these women, bless her soul, exclaimed "I said Homar Omar, and he did!"
I heard her voice when I read your post.
by david h on Nov 12, 2007 10:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Ah, old people.
by Coach Owens on Nov 12, 2007 10:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That's like when Sexson finally hits a homerun
by Librocrat on Nov 12, 2007 10:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Ha, or better
by Librocrat on Nov 12, 2007 10:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
and "finally"
And "For some reason" with "based on a totally rational and skillful analysis of his rapidly declining skills,"
by david h on Nov 12, 2007 10:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Hey
by chrisisasavage on Nov 13, 2007 4:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Were they a part of the
by MtGrizzly on Nov 14, 2007 1:17 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I've technically been a Mariner fan since 94'-95',
by redwolf75 on Nov 12, 2007 11:23 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Jeff, when you say that Ichiro!
by rfloh on Nov 13, 2007 6:17 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Ichiro! is fun to watch play.
by Jed MC on Nov 13, 2007 7:34 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Great stuff Jeff
How great it is that he's not a big topic (as he would have been for sure) of the hot stove league now.
by Tom C on Nov 13, 2007 9:31 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
So many of my favorite baseball moments
Here he chatted up about 20 girls in between taken his bunting practice.
So much of what I will remember about Ichiro is in this picture.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/marksobba/413528939/in/set-72157594575092740/
Seriously, it was an awesome moment.
by mark s on Nov 13, 2007 10:00 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Nice pics Mark
What is awesome is that those girls had travelled all the way from Japan just to catch Ichiro's spring training practice. That's star power man!
by Tom C on Nov 14, 2007 1:49 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
thanks
http://www.flickr.com/photos/marksobba/413529607/in/set-72157594575092740/
by mark s on Nov 14, 2007 5:17 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Jeff
by Librocrat on Nov 13, 2007 3:41 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
It wouldn't make sense.
by Jeff on Nov 13, 2007 5:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
To put it simply,
by all4ms on Nov 14, 2007 12:08 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Ichiro!
by coffee on Nov 14, 2007 9:24 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

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