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15 Major League Free Agents I'd Give A Call

Arranged in no particular order...

Jose Guillen: He may have both feet out the door, but he hasn't yet made it to the sidewalk. As a guy who lines quite a few pitches into right field, we know he can hit in Safeco, and he should be a little better defensively going forward presuming his ankles are all better. He's worth a last-ditch re-signing effort. I wouldn't want to make too big of a commitment, but he's a good player, and he deserves to be paid like one.

Mike Cameron: Everyone loves Cammy. Unfortunately, Cammy doesn't love Safeco. He'd be a long shot to return, since I think he'd prefer to play center somewhere else, but the 25-game suspension should keep interest down a little bit, and he'd be an asset in right field for a year or two. Might as well ask.

Geoff Jenkins: If the Mariners really want him, I think he'd be an easy get. And the Mariners should really want him, because he's a left-handed hitter with good power who plays a mean left field. If I had to choose a few free agents to play on the team next year, Jenkins would be #1 or #2 on the list. He's local, he's good, he won't require a big commitment; what's not to like? Yeah, he's injury-prone, but with Reed and Balentien hanging around in AAA (if Wlad doesn't get traded), it's not like we're lacking for stopgaps.

Bartolo Colon: Dave already wrote this up. He's the right kind of gamble.

Josh Towers: I'm cheating here, because Towers isn't technically a free agent yet, but he will be one Toronto cuts him loose. Safeco was built for guys like this. As a flyball pitcher whose go-to strategy is to lob the ball over the plate and see what happens, Towers has a lot in common with Paul Byrd, but inflated home run rates and worse durability have shot his value to hell. Still, though, there's ability here, and as a one-year flier at the back of the rotation, you could do a lot worse. Not markedly better than Cha Baek, but he's a veteran, so the organization will think he is.

John Thomson: Yeah, he's available again. Yeah, he's still mediocre and injury-prone. But he still has the same ability he had a year ago, and is the right kind of guy to compete with Morrow, Baek, and RRS in March, should the team still have a question mark in the 5 slot. I don't think he'd be too thrilled with AAA were he not to win out, but if you give him one of those cheap contracts where he can declare free agency if he's not on the ML roster by June 15th or something, then there's no real downside.

Jose Cruz Jr.: Strictly as a fourth outfielder and Ibanez replacement when a lefty's on the mound. Not a starter. Reasonable veteran (there's that word again) contingency plan for Jenkins or

Milton Bradley: He's always injured, but the man can hit, and his track record and ACL injury will knock his value to the floor. Might not be 100% until May, but then, you know that ahead of time, so you get a Cruz Jr. or lean on Reed/Balentien. He'll be cheap, he can play a corner, he switch-hits, and the Everett/Guillen acquisitions show that this organization is willing to sign guys with spotty histories. Good risk.

Jeff Cirillo: I'd tell him to go fuck himself.

Matt Clement: Clement's shoulder has been to hell and back, and now he's got the reputation as being a colossal bust. Which he was. But he was apparently ready to pitch again last September, and the last time he was healthy, he was good. Before he fell apart, Clement was a durable power pitcher who did a decent job of keeping the ball on the ground, and he's only 33 years old. Seattle probably isn't his first choice, but if you show him enough money and offer him the chance to re-enter the market a year from now after a bounceback season in a friendly environment, he'd have to consider it.

David Wells: Strike-thrower who likes the West Coast and wouldn't require more than a year and a few million. Prefers Southern California, but could be swayed. Not my first choice, but light years ahead of Morrow.

Randy Wolf: I've got a thing for pitchers with arm problems. Wolf's shoulder went funny last year, and he hasn't made 30 starts in a season since 2003, but he's good when he's healthy, and he's probably not in line to get that much money. He's got a wide range of potential outcomes, but with the team looking how it does, I'd rather go high risk/high reward than lean on proven mediocrities like Jarrod Washburn.

Jon Lieber: This one had a trick foot. Lieber's 2007 was cut short after getting surgery on a ruptured tendon, but that's better than an arm problem, and he's a durable strike-thrower when he's on the mound. Inflated ERA's these last few years should help keep his value down, although he stands a good chance of getting a lot of money anyway from an old school GM who remembers what he used to be. Long shot, but still worth talking to.

Cliff Floyd: I doubt he wants to come here, and he's always hurt, but this organization should probably be placing calls to any and every left-handed corner outfielder with any semblance of strength. Of course, if you prefer someone better, there's always

Brad Wilkerson: He's kind of like Geoff Jenkins, actually, although he gets to his final numbers in a different way. Wilkerson's a lefty bat who can actually hit lefty arms, and while he's a 30 year old with good power and a league-average glove, his low average and strikeouts should keep him from seeing too much money this winter. I'd rather have Jenkins, but you could do worse on a one-year deal. The downside is that you get a repeat of last year's Richie Sexson, but Wilkerson would be a lot easier to dump in the garbage if he's not producing by July.

----------

The Japanese players aren't included, because I don't know that much about them, but expect to hear a lot about Fukudome and Kuroda in the coming days/weeks. From what I can tell, the former is intriguing, and the latter isn't. Also, you'll notice that nearly everyone on that list is going to end up with a short contract. This isn't a mistake. Free agency is almost invariably a bad place to be giving out long-term deals, as you tend to be paying for what a player's done instead of what you expect him to do. The Mariners need to be careful as they wade through these waters. There's value to be had, but they have to be willing to dive for it.

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For pitching
Colon/Lieber/Clement would top my list.  I'd offer Clement an incentive/option laden contract.  Maybe w/ a vesting option and incentives for playing time.  Lieber is older, but I think someone's gonna offer him $$$ due to a lack of FA pitching.  I'm also not sure Colon's actually gonna be cheap.

by chrisisasavage on Nov 12, 2007 12:27 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Jenkins is underrated
AND a perfect fit for Safeco.  a 2 win defender w/ dead pull left handed power, it's like getting Ibanez all over again, except he can play left field.

by chrisisasavage on Nov 12, 2007 12:29 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Great article, Jeff
The Cirillo line had me in stitches.
I'm not sure I'm 100% in line with you on the injured pitchers/high risk-high reward bit, only because this org has shown that it doesn't know how to cut loose on a player until every other team is laughing at us. Great concept, but it requires a team with a short enough leash when it becomes clear the risk beat out the reward.

As for Fukudome, the DOV collective put together a lot of great insights from their Japanese correspondents - complete with stats, projections, etc. The consensus has him at about $12-14 million over 7ish years... Put the guesstimation line at 290/370/500 with above average defense.

We want the funk! Give up the funk!

by thejew4u on Nov 12, 2007 12:42 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Sooo
you can expect something like .270/.330/.400 out of him here (WAG).  I can't remember my "translation" I used to use for Japanese players, but it goes something like, reduce walks/BFP, reduce AVG a little, and reduce SLG ridiculously, and there you go.  

by chrisisasavage on Nov 12, 2007 12:50 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Should have clarified-
That is the projected adjustment line. He's a career .330/.430/.630 guy in Japan (not including 2007, when he tried to play through an elbow injury and dropped down to about 500 SLG before taking time off to heal). His peripherals were still on track, he just fell 20ish homers back as they died a few feet short of the seats.
We want the funk! Give up the funk!

by thejew4u on Nov 12, 2007 12:58 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Or you can apply the DOV translation
of substantially reducing their projections enough to nullify their point.

by Edgar for Pres on Nov 12, 2007 2:03 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

/shrug
I know it's not a popular word here, but at least they went to the trouble of combining his existing stats and some other factual data for you. On top of that, it's a group with several Japanese contributors who follow NPB as closely as we do MLB. If you're looking for info on a Japanese player, it's not a bad place to start. Draw your own conclusions at that point if you prefer... Just trying to fill a gap where Jeff said he hadn't heard much about the player.
We want the funk! Give up the funk!

by thejew4u on Nov 12, 2007 3:25 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

DOV can be nice
but look at how they projected the following players before they came to America:

Johjima: a right handed Hideki Matsui who would cut the pitching staff's ERA by half a run.

Kei Igawa: was compared to Barry Zito, Jeff Fassero, and Chuck Finley.

Daisuke Matsuzaka: an ace; better than Mike Mussina or David Cone at their best.

Akinori Iwamura: they actually seemed to underrate him.

by Katal LM on Nov 12, 2007 6:27 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Well in their minds
Japanese players=good
American players=bad
These pretzels....are making me thirsty!

by Goose on Nov 12, 2007 7:59 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

They're projections..
Not predictions.

Projections are based on production and stuff, and any prospect will have comparatives.

For any player to hit their highest projections, they'd have to jump through 300 loops.

Poaching from the NPB is just like getting players from the Minors.

Adam Jones has the tools to be Ron Gant, whatever, but whether he does or not isn't the point of a projection.

Detect-O-Vision

Favor the Bold

by IcebreakerX on Nov 12, 2007 10:32 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I know. I felt bad saying that.
Its just they seem to get a little excited sometimes and overrate things.  I'm not saying they are bad in general.  Just to take some of their stuff with a little perspective.

One of those cases of any info is info i'll listen to.  I just don't see their predictions matching up to most out there.

by Edgar for Pres on Nov 12, 2007 7:32 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Point well made
But in a city without a lot to look forward to this offseason, I'm always happy for a litle optimism - even if it has to be taken with a grain of salt.
We want the funk! Give up the funk!

by thejew4u on Nov 12, 2007 11:07 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Great line on Cirillo...
I also think Jenkins would be very good here.
FREE ADAM JONES

by dbroncos31 on Nov 12, 2007 1:33 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Oh!
"Jeff Cirillo: I'd tell him to go fuck himself."

Dick?  Dick Cheney?  When did you get blog access?! =D

I will not make jokes in my sig. I will not make jokes in my sig. I will not...

by TIF on Nov 12, 2007 1:51 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I miss pre-mariner Cirillo
A .300+ Gold glove quality 3B. I wonder whatever happened to that guy.
This is me not lurking.

by PhilKenSebben on Nov 12, 2007 1:52 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

He left Colorado.
Jose Vidro (DH - Ms) was arrested today in an Idaho Bathroom for having a wide stance and sucking.

by Librocrat on Nov 12, 2007 3:18 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

NO BONDS WHHHHHAAAAATT???
"Goddamn Romans. Sure know how to make a ... drum room." --Matt Cameron

by JI on Nov 12, 2007 2:02 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Sign Jenkins and any of those pitchers
and I'll call it a good offseason.

by Katal LM on Nov 12, 2007 2:11 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Screw Fukudome, I bet he's going to be bid
out of the blue. Go for Jenkins, he's had some off years.

I say pick up Kuroda if he takes Kenji's route (wants to come to Seattle and will take a pay cut to do so). If not, pick up 2 high risk lower cost pitchers such as Colon or Wolf. -

by redwolf75 on Nov 12, 2007 2:19 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

What would you value Fukudome at?
His team in Japan offered him 1.7 billion yen (~18.5 million) over 4 years. He's coming off an injury and an off year as well. Highest US contract that's been rumored is the Cubs at 5/$60 million.
We want the funk! Give up the funk!

by thejew4u on Nov 12, 2007 3:21 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

There's too many teams interested in him.
I think his situation is in some ways similar to Silva's.

by redwolf75 on Nov 12, 2007 3:27 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I would stop returning calls
the second the talks went past either
A) 10M per year
B) 3 years guaranteed

by Matthew on Nov 12, 2007 3:39 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Huh.
I just went and looked at Geoff Jenkins' stats. He walks WAY less than I thought he did.
I reject your reality and substitute my own!

by Phildopip on Nov 12, 2007 3:05 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Jenkins offensive value
comes from power which makes up for poor discipline, but he's a ++ defender who can crush an occasional ball.  He IS what we need in left.  The LH sock-edness is just gravy on top.

by chrisisasavage on Nov 12, 2007 3:14 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, I didn't mean that we shouldn't
pursue Jenkins. In fact, I'm totally in favor of it. But I just thought his OBP was consistently above average.
I reject your reality and substitute my own!

by Phildopip on Nov 12, 2007 3:15 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

At his best
his OBP is a hair above average, pretty average for a LF, if we get 07 Jenkins, not so much.

by chrisisasavage on Nov 12, 2007 3:23 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm with ya.
I reject your reality and substitute my own!

by Phildopip on Nov 12, 2007 4:33 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

the Bradley bandwagon
is sidetracked for 4-6 months with a splintered axle

by Matthew on Nov 12, 2007 4:52 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

And watch out
The suspension's flimsy and the driver's fucking crazy.

by Gomez on Nov 12, 2007 5:03 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

If you're basing Kuroda on...
The Churchill Report, its mostly bunk. Kuroda didn't play in the Japan Series. It's entirely about Kawakami.
Detect-O-Vision

Favor the Bold

by IcebreakerX on Nov 12, 2007 10:40 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I'm not.
I just haven't heard anything about him that I find to be all that impressive is all.

by Jeff on Nov 12, 2007 11:03 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Ok
How about a Jenkins/Kielty platoon in LF or RF next year?

Jenkins vs. RHP (last 3 yrs)
.292/.365/.504/.869

Kielty vs. LHP (last 3 yrs)
.313/.372/.494/.866

After taking into account crappy platoon management I'm guessing we'd probably see an OPS of around .820 with some good defense for probably about the cost of Guillen with a shorter commitment.  I realize doing this would basically screw Wlad but is he really gonna match this.

by Edgar for Pres on Nov 13, 2007 12:00 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

I'm all for platoons
but unfortunately I just don't think this team has the mental faculties necessary to pull a good one off, so at this point I hardly even bother considering them, save for the occasional "sit Raul against lefties" desperation remark. It's one of those good-in-theory-won't-happen-in-practice ideas that we should probably try to forget about.

Kielty would be neat, though. Easy writing material.

by Jeff on Nov 13, 2007 12:12 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

How much difference
Would there be between what we'd pay Silva and what we would have to pay to get Lieber, Colon and Wolf.  If we have Felix, Batista, and Washburn, betweeen the three injury question marks, we should be able to mix and match to get a good rotation.  Plus the upside on any one of these guys healthy would be absolutely amazing.  I would much rather trust these six guys than the current rotation with Silva or even last years rotation.  Any one would be a CLEAR upgrade over Ho and at least even with Weaver.  Plus, like I said, you can't ignore the upside of these guys.  With the way they left their organizations, I have a feeling that lack of interest is going to lower prices to make it an almost bargain.

by jullberg on Nov 14, 2007 12:58 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

If at all possible
Colon, Lieber, AND Wolf would be awesome, at least if you could get all 3 for reasonable contracts.  I know we already have 3 starters, and in the ideal world Washburn would be the expendable one if everyone was on their game, but I don't really trust the M's even if they did get all 3.  How much would they spend, and who would they jettison if it did work out perfectly (all 3 healthy and effective).  My hunch is Batista would get traded.  The chances all three are healthy and effective for all of next year is pretty low though.  We could always move Batista back to the bullpen though, seeing how he's a "proven veteran" in that role.

by chrisisasavage on Nov 14, 2007 11:44 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

First reaction after reading Cirillo...
...what the fuck?

Upon reading the makeup of the call, though, I was laughing. Nice.

by The Ghost of Spike Owen on Nov 14, 2007 5:11 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Same here
I'm still cracking up at it.

by Robert on Nov 15, 2007 12:00 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

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