Baseball 101: Lineup Orders
Righto, I'm being as patient as possible and trying to learn as much as I can from listening, reading and researching. However, sometimes you just need to ask the guys who know.
So over the last 18 months since I got into baseball I've gradually appreciated the generic principles around ordering a lineup - you whack a guy with a decent OBP at the top to leadoff, and clutter the #3-#5 spots with sluggers to bring the early guys home.
The rest would appear to my untrained eye to be much of a muchness, save for the streaky guy who bats at #9 and manages to get on base a bunch (e.g. Burke, YuBet (am I being too harsh?)) and is almost a relief #1.
I am certain, however, that there's more to it than that, but I suspect you'd only pick it up from the wise sage, so here it falls that I refer to the collective wisdom of the LL Community. I can't fathom why Lopez flips between #2 and #8, or the relative cost of promoting Beltre to #3 from #4, say. My curiousity has been brought to a head by following Jeff's 1986 team as, presumably, he also has to assign the hitting order there too with a degree of educated application.
So, guys - how do you go about contructing the best conceivable lineup from the nine guys you field in a game?
Cheers,
Your humble apprentice from across the pond.
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This is pretty complicated
It's so complicated
Now, though, speed is not quite as important as OBP, as teams realize that speed is useless unless it's actually on base. If you were going to break it down, I'd think it'd be
1-3: OBP/speed
4-5: Power
6-7: Any one of the three qualities listed in the earlier spots
8-9: Roster filler/Bloomquist/pitcher (NL)
Of course, this then runs into the real-world problem of "what if my team doesn't have enough of each type to fill out a lineup?", which happens more often than it doesn't.
I'd say that #3 and #4 should be switched
by Graham MacAree on Nov 12, 2007 9:14 AM PST up reply actions
I struggled with that
There's not much to be sure about
And you can bet that your 4-5-6 hitters will bat (in that order) in a good chunk of your 2nd innings.
After that it's a crap shoot. You mostly just want to make sure your better hitters hit toward the top so they get one more at bat per game than the guys at the bottom of the lineup.
Edgar always batted third. Griffey batted 4th. That was ideal in my mind. Either Griff gets a chance to go yard with runners on, or he gets to lead off the 2nd with his decent OBP and speed.
HOWEVER... Some simulations have shown things you wouldn't expect... like batting Griffey 1st and Edgar 2nd actually yielded the most runs per season. So conventional wisdom on these things may be wrong.
What it seems to come down to
Actually Edgar batted after Junior.
The problem with hitting Griffey first is that he has the #9 hitter in front of him so he'll have very few at bats with men on base.
IMO
I feel like mostly you want your best hitters going early mostly to maximize the ABs they get since a leadoff hitter will get more ABs than the #9 hitter.
General rules of thumb
- Bat the guys with the best OPS 3rd and 4th.
- Take the next two highest OBPs and bat them 1st and 2nd, preferably with a base stealer leading off if you can.
- Order the rest based on SLG.
The only problem there
Yeah.
The 90/10 for lineup contruction
GPA?
Gross Production Average
by Bearskin Rugburn on Nov 12, 2007 9:45 AM PST up reply actions
balls
Yes. I am a jackass. Who reads THT. Not that its exclusively for jackasses. I just happen to be a jackass who reads it.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Nov 12, 2007 9:53 AM PST up reply actions
Close enough
by chrisisasavage on Nov 12, 2007 12:35 PM PST up reply actions
GPA is just 1.8 OPS w/ park factors
by chrisisasavage on Nov 12, 2007 12:48 PM PST up reply actions
it's 1.8 * OBP + SLG actually then divided by 4
That's what I mean
by chrisisasavage on Nov 12, 2007 1:47 PM PST up reply actions
I guess that depends...
((1.8*OBP) + SLG)/4
or
(1.8(OBP+SLG))/4
You'd get very different results, and I'm sure that Matthew meant the former rather than the latter.
1.8 OPS referred to ((1.8*OBP) + SLG)/4
by chrisisasavage on Nov 13, 2007 4:44 PM PST up reply actions
speed plays into it a lot
Left-right matchups and alterations also play into it a lot. You want to play the odds in handedness matchups but not overdo it so as to leave the lineup vulnerable to lefty/righty specialists in late innings.
I was under the general umpression though, that there are few hard and fast rules, outside the obvious (put the guys who get on base the most higher up, put the guys who hit the ball hardest ust behind them to bring them in). Also, it doesn't matter that much at all, so long as a guy who can't hit righties doesn;t bat third against them etc.
There's also individual player qualities that will dictate this. Whoever bats behind a high OBP base stealer will see more fastballs thus its good to put a fastball hitter there.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Nov 12, 2007 9:42 AM PST reply actions
Yeah...
And you want to mix up the Lefty/Righty hitters... having 3 Lefties in a row makes it easy for the opposing manager to put his best LOOGY in late in the game and mow down your lineup. If there's balance, the opposing manager will only be able to use his LOOGY to face one batter.
it goes like this
#2: Top 5 hitter who doesn't fit. Generally a veteran hitter w/ a decent average
#3: guy with high batting average and some power (RBI). Must have veteran grit
#4: guy with lots of K's and lots of HR/RBI. Must be veteran
#5: guy with high batting average or RBI but not both
#6: guy with averagish batting average and power
#7: Whatever is left over, maybe the higher RBI guy of the last 3.
#8: 2nd worst hitter on the team using reliable batting measures (RBI, AVG, HR, how his swing looks)
#9: Pitcher/Catcher/SS/2B - IE, doesn't hit a lick
All you need to know when selecting a batting order is each players RBI Total, Batting Average, Total Home Runs, how fast they are, stolen bases, how sweet their swing looks, and how long they've played, none of that other nerd-head stuff matters.
by chrisisasavage on Nov 12, 2007 11:03 AM PST reply actions
Since when is...
In the real world
by chrisisasavage on Nov 12, 2007 11:10 AM PST up reply actions
I live in the real world
But that aside, even I know that a pretty swing that results in a .197 batting average doesn't mean much of anything.
Clearly
by chrisisasavage on Nov 12, 2007 12:19 PM PST up reply actions
I forgot clutch hitting!
by chrisisasavage on Nov 12, 2007 12:42 PM PST up reply actions
RBIs is not a good indicator at all
OPS is OK because ESPN uses it
ERA is good for pitchers, but total wins is the most important. If a guy has a 5.00 ERA and wins 10+ games, that's the important thing. Nerds don't win games, pitchers that know how to win games do.
by chrisisasavage on Nov 12, 2007 12:23 PM PST up reply actions
right on
#4 it helps if he's tall, and can tough out long (like two seasons) slumps.
#2 should be a professional hitter, first and foremost. Usually, if a guy's no longer good enough to play on the nationals, he's a professional hitter.
#7-9 you want one of these guys to hit an IF pop up each time through the order. for rhythm.
#6 your stud thrid baseman should bat here. the Mets didn't bat Wright 6th last september, and we all know what happened to them.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Nov 12, 2007 11:30 AM PST up reply actions
Lineup
Leadoff batter has high OBP and steals bases.
#2 has high OBP, also steals, and has a bit of pop.
#3 Very high OBP and power
#4 Power and OBP
#5 Power
#6 Power
#7 Power
#8 Has a pulse
#9 speed
by ira500 on Nov 12, 2007 11:53 AM PST reply actions
Useful stuff guys, thanks.
- Naturally, do what you can to get your best guys higher up the order so's they get more ABs in the game
- And yup, get your best OBP guy to leadoff
- Have someone patient batting immediately after your best basestealer, wherever he might be in the lineup
- Have someone fast, or at least with half a brain at #9 in case he gets on base ahead of your leadoff guy when he comes around again (this would lead me to wonder why a pitcher bats at #9 in the NL so often rather than at #8, say, but considering their low propensity to even get on base in the first place then I guess this factor is negated?)
- If a batter has a particularly good average with RISP then clearly they want to go 3rd or 4th
- Mere Tantilisers' point about the guy batting behind the basestealer seeing a lot of fastballs is good.
1 - On the principle that you want to get your runners on base and follow them with sluggers, is there any wisdom in the idea of going:
On-base guy
Slugger
Filler
Filler
On-base guy
Slugger
for a stretch, to give the sluggers more of a chance to knock someone home? (pure speculation, I haven't thought about this enough)
2 - Is there any resource on the web that's happened to already calculate the likelihood that 0, 1, 2 runners are on base before the 3rd out in the first inning? I'd imagine that if there was any real science to it, this could be useful
3 - Presumably the #4 spot is coined the "clean up" hitter because the desire is that #1-3 have got themselves on base and the best result would be that he doubles, triples or homers to bring them all home?
Thanks, Gomez, for the Baseball Musings reference, I'll look that up.
I think I've learned from this thread that so long as the basics are followed, the more minute detail matter less. The problem with simulations, however, are that they're only reliable if the batter acts the same in a different position and circumstances than he did in that which you removed him from, and I suspect that's highly unlikely, particularly if he's a serial bunter.
---
Any more insight thoroughly welcome. Whilst there are some right wallies on here on occasion, the vast majority really seem to know what they're talking about and I'm quite serious when I say that reading this site (Jeff's insight and subsequent comments) have really helped me to appreciate the game of baseball far more than I'd have been able to just by watching mlb.tv.
One thing to note about the pitcher
Bunt theory
Selecting a lineup is different because you're predetermining events rather than reacting to the events that have taken place.
It might be seen as incredibly sad, but I get really drawn in when a player is trying to bunt, it's like a whole other sidegame within the bigger picture. I still haven't figured out the Ichiro-drag-bunt/swinging bunt yet, mind you :o)
Mostly, it really doesn't matter much
It matters much less than the time and effort that people expend thinking and writing about it.
About the only rule-of-thumb that seems to matter is to keep your best hitters near the top of the lineup, and your worst hitters near the bottom.
by nathaniel dawson on Nov 12, 2007 1:28 PM PST reply actions
Agreed
Oh, and I forgot to add....
by nathaniel dawson on Nov 12, 2007 1:29 PM PST reply actions

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