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Baseball 101: Lineup Orders

Righto, I'm being as patient as possible and trying to learn as much as I can from listening, reading and researching. However, sometimes you just need to ask the guys who know.

So over the last 18 months since I got into baseball I've gradually appreciated the generic principles around ordering a lineup - you whack a guy with a decent OBP at the top to leadoff, and clutter the #3-#5 spots with sluggers to bring the early guys home.

The rest would appear to my untrained eye to be much of a muchness, save for the streaky guy who bats at #9 and manages to get on base a bunch (e.g. Burke, YuBet (am I being too harsh?)) and is almost a relief #1.

I am certain, however, that there's more to it than that, but I suspect you'd only pick it up from the wise sage, so here it falls that I refer to the collective wisdom of the LL Community. I can't fathom why Lopez flips between #2 and #8, or the relative cost of promoting Beltre to #3 from #4, say. My curiousity has been brought to a head by following Jeff's 1986 team as, presumably, he also has to assign the hitting order there too with a degree of educated application.

So, guys - how do you go about contructing the best conceivable lineup from the nine guys you field in a game?

Cheers,

Your humble apprentice from across the pond.

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This is pretty complicated
But what it essentially boils down to is that you want high OBP guys getting at-bats early in the inning (and the best OBP guy getting the most ABs, i.e. batting leadoff), and power bats coming in with men on base to drive in runs.

by Graham MacAree on Nov 12, 2007 9:05 AM PST reply actions  

It's so complicated
that almost nobody does it as well as possible, in fact.  Used to be, back in the olden days, it was more or less always bat your best hitter fourth, with speedy, contact-hitting guys in front of him and slower, not-so-good hitters towards the bottom.  

Now, though, speed is not quite as important as OBP, as teams realize that speed is useless unless it's actually on base.  If you were going to break it down, I'd think it'd be

1-3: OBP/speed
4-5: Power
6-7: Any one of the three qualities listed in the earlier spots
8-9: Roster filler/Bloomquist/pitcher (NL)

Of course, this then runs into the real-world problem of "what if my team doesn't have enough of each type to fill out a lineup?", which happens more often than it doesn't.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Nov 12, 2007 9:11 AM PST up reply actions  

I'd say that #3 and #4 should be switched
But yeah, like you said, it's really complex and nobody does it right.

by Graham MacAree on Nov 12, 2007 9:14 AM PST up reply actions  

I struggled with that
"Struggled" is probably too serious a word for a list that took me 24 seconds to vomit up, but yeah, I'd probably agree with that.
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Nov 12, 2007 9:17 AM PST up reply actions  

There's not much to be sure about
except that your 1-2-3 hitters will bat (in that order) in the first inning.

And you can bet that your 4-5-6 hitters will bat (in that order) in a good chunk of your 2nd innings.

After that it's a crap shoot.  You mostly just want to make sure your better hitters hit toward the top so they get one more at bat per game than the guys at the bottom of the lineup.

Edgar always batted third.  Griffey batted 4th.  That was ideal in my mind.  Either Griff gets a chance to go yard with runners on, or he gets to lead off the 2nd with his decent OBP and speed.

HOWEVER... Some simulations have shown things you wouldn't expect... like batting Griffey 1st and Edgar 2nd actually yielded the most runs per season.  So conventional wisdom on these things may be wrong.

by johnbai on Nov 12, 2007 9:29 AM PST up reply actions  

What it seems to come down to
is pretty much based on the team you have.  There probably is an "ideal" 1-9 lineup, but so few teams are perfectly constructed that it becomes less about perfection than about playing the hand you're dealt.
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Nov 12, 2007 9:35 AM PST up reply actions  

Actually Edgar batted after Junior.
I think the line of think was that Griffey is fast, and Edgar hits a ton of doubles, and Buhner is a walk/strikeout/homer anyway. It actually sort of makes sense.

The problem with hitting Griffey first is that he has the #9 hitter in front of him so he'll have very few at bats with men on base.

"Goddamn Romans. Sure know how to make a ... drum room." --Matt Cameron

by JI on Nov 12, 2007 10:19 AM PST up reply actions  

IMO
as long as Ichiro stays leadoff none of the lineup changes really affect much.

I feel like mostly you want your best hitters going early mostly to maximize the ABs they get since a leadoff hitter will get more ABs than the #9 hitter.  

by Edgar for Pres on Nov 12, 2007 9:11 AM PST reply actions  

General rules of thumb
  • Bat the guys with the best OPS 3rd and 4th.
  • Take the next two highest OBPs and bat them 1st and 2nd, preferably with a base stealer leading off if you can.
  • Order the rest based on SLG.
There's an optimum formula that guys from Baseball Musings devised that gets way more specific and twists the lineup all around, but allegedly produces more runs than any other combo given roughly static performances.  But the basic rules above are solid rules of thumb in lineup construction.

by Gomez on Nov 12, 2007 9:35 AM PST reply actions  

The only problem there
is one of ego.  If a player has a lowish SLG, and has always batted fifth, chances are he'll balk at batting seventh if his SLG says he should.  Humans mess up mathematic perfection every time.
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Nov 12, 2007 9:41 AM PST up reply actions  

Yeah.
That's why the lineup thing is far more art than science.
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Nov 12, 2007 9:54 AM PST up reply actions  

The 90/10 for lineup contruction
take the GPA of your 9 hitters, sort in descending order. Done.

by Matthew on Nov 12, 2007 9:37 AM PST reply actions  

GPA?
If you have a guy that gets on base a lot, but struggled in history class, where do you bat him?  
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Nov 12, 2007 9:44 AM PST up reply actions  

Gross Production Average
its a Hardball Times stat. Who reads that stupid site anyways?
there should be three levels of terror alert: Jesus Christ, Goddammit, and fuck me! -LB

by Bearskin Rugburn on Nov 12, 2007 9:45 AM PST up reply actions  

Ah.
I think my way's more fun.
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Nov 12, 2007 9:47 AM PST up reply actions  

balls
I only read the subject of your comment.
Yes. I am a jackass. Who reads THT. Not that its exclusively for  jackasses. I just happen to be a jackass who reads it.
there should be three levels of terror alert: Jesus Christ, Goddammit, and fuck me! -LB

by Bearskin Rugburn on Nov 12, 2007 9:53 AM PST up reply actions  

Close enough
anything beyond that isn't going to add much.  If it were me I'd run every combination through a sim that includes base running information to try and get the optimal batting order.  But descending GPA is gonna get you 95% of the way there anyway w/o the complexities.

by chrisisasavage on Nov 12, 2007 12:35 PM PST up reply actions  

I actually didn't know this existed
Your reference to this formula is teh awesome IMO.

by Gomez on Nov 12, 2007 12:42 PM PST up reply actions  

GPA is just 1.8 OPS w/ park factors
I used to take a team of average players and do base runs then replace one of the average players w/ the player in question, recalculate BaseRuns, then subtract the two numbers.  I found both 1.8 OPS and LWts was close enough for practical reasons and it didn't make much of a difference for most purposes.

by chrisisasavage on Nov 12, 2007 12:48 PM PST up reply actions  

That's what I mean
by 1.8 OPS, 1.8 OBP + SLG, It's divided by 4 to scale to BA.

by chrisisasavage on Nov 12, 2007 1:47 PM PST up reply actions  

I guess that depends...
... on whether it's:

((1.8*OBP) + SLG)/4
or
(1.8(OBP+SLG))/4

You'd get very different results, and I'm sure that Matthew meant the former rather than the latter.

P3 W1 L2 (.333)

by MarkE on Nov 13, 2007 12:28 AM PST up reply actions  

Agreed
But it wasn't at all clear further up the subthread
P3 W1 L2 (.333)

by MarkE on Nov 14, 2007 12:29 AM PST up reply actions  

speed plays into it a lot
one of the reasons Yuni usually bats ninth is you can't have a slow guy running in front of Ichiro, both because he's fast and because he hits a lot of grounders.
Left-right matchups and alterations also play into it a lot. You want to play the odds in handedness matchups but not overdo it so as to leave the lineup vulnerable to lefty/righty specialists in late innings.

I was under the general umpression though, that there are few hard and fast rules, outside the obvious (put the guys who get on base the most higher up, put the guys who hit the ball hardest ust behind them to bring them in). Also, it doesn't matter that much at all, so long as a guy who can't hit righties doesn;t bat third against them etc.

There's also individual player qualities that will dictate this. Whoever bats behind a high OBP base stealer will see more fastballs thus its good to put a fastball hitter there.

there should be three levels of terror alert: Jesus Christ, Goddammit, and fuck me! -LB

by Bearskin Rugburn on Nov 12, 2007 9:42 AM PST reply actions  

Yeah...
a patient hitter in the #2 hole is good... giving your #9 or #1 hitters a chance to steal bases.  Conventional wisdom also says that your #2 guy should be able to hit a ground ball to the right side (to advance a runner at 2nd) and lay down a bunt (to advance a runner at 1st)

And you want to mix up the Lefty/Righty hitters... having 3 Lefties in a row makes it easy for the opposing manager to put his best LOOGY in late in the game and mow down your lineup.  If there's balance, the opposing manager will only be able to use his LOOGY to face one batter.

by johnbai on Nov 12, 2007 10:22 AM PST up reply actions  

it goes like this
#1: Scrappy guy who's fast and doesnt hit power.
#2: Top 5 hitter who doesn't fit.  Generally a veteran hitter w/ a decent average
#3: guy with high batting average and some power (RBI).  Must have veteran grit
#4: guy with lots of K's and lots of HR/RBI.  Must be veteran
#5: guy with high batting average or RBI but not both
#6: guy with averagish batting average and power
#7: Whatever is left over, maybe the higher RBI guy of the last 3.
#8: 2nd worst hitter on the team using reliable batting measures (RBI, AVG, HR, how his swing looks)
#9: Pitcher/Catcher/SS/2B - IE, doesn't hit a lick

All you need to know when selecting a batting order is each players RBI Total, Batting Average, Total Home Runs, how fast they are, stolen bases, how sweet their swing looks, and how long they've played, none of that other nerd-head stuff matters.

by chrisisasavage on Nov 12, 2007 11:03 AM PST reply actions  

Since when is...
..."how his swing looks" a reliable batting measure?
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Nov 12, 2007 11:05 AM PST up reply actions  

In the real world
where people use their eyes instead of their calculators to evaluate hitters.  Duh!

by chrisisasavage on Nov 12, 2007 11:10 AM PST up reply actions  

I live in the real world
I'm not much of a stats guy, but thanks for the condescending sideswipe at an entire community.  I'm sure they appreciate it.  

But that aside, even I know that a pretty swing that results in a .197 batting average doesn't mean much of anything.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Nov 12, 2007 11:12 AM PST up reply actions  

Clearly
the results do matter.  RBI being most important, followed by AVG, then total HR, then total SB.

by chrisisasavage on Nov 12, 2007 12:19 PM PST up reply actions  

RBIs is not a good indicator at all
RBIs depends very much on place in batting order, in terms of who is hitting in front of you. So you can't just take RBI to reflect a hitter's skill type/ability. Slugging and OBP are the only two indicators you need, and consequently OPS also.

by vkut79 on Nov 12, 2007 4:34 PM PST up reply actions  

OPS is OK because ESPN uses it
and they know more about baseball than all nerd-heads combined.  I'd take 120 RBI any day of the week and then some.

ERA is good for pitchers, but total wins is the most important.  If a guy has a 5.00 ERA and wins 10+ games, that's the important thing.  Nerds don't win games, pitchers that know how to win games do.

by chrisisasavage on Nov 12, 2007 12:23 PM PST up reply actions  

right on
Some fine points:
#4 it helps if he's tall, and can tough out long (like two seasons) slumps.

#2 should be a professional hitter, first and foremost. Usually, if a guy's no longer good enough to play on the nationals, he's a professional hitter.

#7-9 you want one of these guys to hit an IF pop up each time through the order. for rhythm.

#6 your stud thrid baseman should bat here. the Mets didn't bat Wright 6th last september, and we all know what happened to them.

there should be three levels of terror alert: Jesus Christ, Goddammit, and fuck me! -LB

by Bearskin Rugburn on Nov 12, 2007 11:30 AM PST up reply actions  

Lineup
In an ideal world:
Leadoff batter has high OBP and steals bases.
#2 has high OBP, also steals, and has a bit of pop.
#3 Very high OBP and power
#4 Power and OBP
#5 Power
#6 Power
#7 Power
#8 Has a pulse
#9 speed

by ira500 on Nov 12, 2007 11:53 AM PST reply actions  

Useful stuff guys, thanks.
I think the biggest things I picked up from this thread so far are:
  • Naturally, do what you can to get your best guys higher up the order so's they get more ABs in the game
  • And yup, get your best OBP guy to leadoff
  • Have someone patient batting immediately after your best basestealer, wherever he might be in the lineup
  • Have someone fast, or at least with half a brain at #9 in case he gets on base ahead of your leadoff guy when he comes around again (this would lead me to wonder why a pitcher bats at #9 in the NL so often rather than at #8, say, but considering their low propensity to even get on base in the first place then I guess this factor is negated?)
  • If a batter has a particularly good average with RISP then clearly they want to go 3rd or 4th
  • Mere Tantilisers' point about the guy batting behind the basestealer seeing a lot of fastballs is good.
Outstanding questions, then:

1 - On the principle that you want to get your runners on base and follow them with sluggers, is there any wisdom in the idea of going:
On-base guy
Slugger
Filler
Filler
On-base guy
Slugger
for a stretch, to give the sluggers more of a chance to knock someone home? (pure speculation, I haven't thought about this enough)

2 - Is there any resource on the web that's happened to already calculate the likelihood that 0, 1, 2 runners are on base before the 3rd out in the first inning? I'd imagine that if there was any real science to it, this could be useful

3 - Presumably the #4 spot is coined the "clean up" hitter because the desire is that #1-3 have got themselves on base and the best result would be that he doubles, triples or homers to bring them all home?

Thanks, Gomez, for the Baseball Musings reference, I'll look that up.

I think I've learned from this thread that so long as the basics are followed, the more minute detail matter less. The problem with simulations, however, are that they're only reliable if the batter acts the same in a different position and circumstances than he did in that which you removed him from, and I suspect that's highly unlikely, particularly if he's a serial bunter.

---

Any more insight thoroughly welcome. Whilst there are some right wallies on here on occasion, the vast majority really seem to know what they're talking about and I'm quite serious when I say that reading this site (Jeff's insight and subsequent comments) have really helped me to appreciate the game of baseball far more than I'd have been able to just by watching mlb.tv.

P3 W1 L2 (.333)

by MarkE on Nov 12, 2007 12:49 PM PST reply actions  

One thing to note about the pitcher
Even if guys are on base when he comes up to bat and less than two outs, he often will sacrifice bunt to move the runners over, due to his hitting inability and the team wanting to maximize his likely out.  That then leaves the base open for the leadoff hitter, who, if he can get a hit, should have an open bag in front of him.

by Gomez on Nov 12, 2007 12:59 PM PST up reply actions  

Bunt theory
I'm actually more comfortable with when to/not to bunt. It's a little more obvious as a strategy because a particular scenario calls for it.

Selecting a lineup is different because you're predetermining events rather than reacting to the events that have taken place.

It might be seen as incredibly sad, but I get really drawn in when a player is trying to bunt, it's like a whole other sidegame within the bigger picture. I still haven't figured out the Ichiro-drag-bunt/swinging bunt yet, mind you :o)

P3 W1 L2 (.333)

by MarkE on Nov 12, 2007 1:07 PM PST up reply actions  

Mostly, it really doesn't matter much
Seriously, it doesn't. The difference between the best constructed lineup and the worst, given the same nine players, would amount to about 20-30 runs for the season. About 2-3 wins. And no manager in baseball would come even remotely close to making up a lineup card with the worst possible configuration.

It matters much less than the time and effort that people expend thinking and writing about it.
About the only rule-of-thumb that seems to matter is to keep your best hitters near the top of the lineup, and your worst hitters near the bottom.

by nathaniel dawson on Nov 12, 2007 1:28 PM PST reply actions  

Agreed
If all 9 batters batted consecutively every time, it'd probably matter, but with inning endings breaking up the lineup in the course of a game, it's really no big deal who you put where outside that rule of thumb.
Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Nov 12, 2007 1:29 PM PST up reply actions  

Oh, and I forgot to add....
The thing that really matters is who you have in your lineup, not where. I think Bill James should be credited for saying that.

by nathaniel dawson on Nov 12, 2007 1:29 PM PST reply actions  

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