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Community Projection: Kenji Johjima

The first in a non-alphabetical and irregularly updated series of review pieces for each of the players we predicted last winter. (All entries are linked in the left-hand sidebar, below the Rotoworld stuff and the interviews.)

LL/USSM Community: 492 AB's, .290/.343/.468 (n=150)
Actual Line: 485 AB's, .287/.322/.433

Closest Projection: batura, .290/.323/.435

A bit of an ambitious forecast, as a lot of people were looking for Kenji to have the same kind of sophomore improvement that we saw with Hideki Matsui after he came over. Of 150 total participants, 104 picked Kenji to finish with an OPS over .800, and only nine thought he's end up at or below where he did. Suffice to say that the members of the Mariner blogosphere expected a little more out of our everyday backstop than we got.

This isn't to say that Kenji was a disappointment, however, because while he didn't improve, he didn't really get any worse, either. In fact, one could argue that in 2007, Kenji Johjima was exactly the same player he was in 2006. Observe (2006 values in parentheses):

GB/FB: 1.33 (1.24)
LD%: 20.1% (19.0%)
BB%: 3.0% (3.5%)
K%: 8.5% (9.1%)
BA: .287 (.291)
OBP - BA: .035 (.041)
SLG - BA: .146 (.160)

Every difference in there is well within the range of statistical fluctuation. All that changed is that three or four rookie home runs turned into doubles. Between 2006 and 2007, Kenji Johjima can make an argument for being the most consistent offensive player in baseball.

So who is this offensive player, exactly? A fairly underrated one, that's who. At least, fairly underrated for a catcher. Despite playing half his games in what might be the worst possible environment for someone with his skillset, Kenji bested the league-average backstop OPS by 6%. Put him in a normal ballpark and that jumps to 8-10%. Other players who are about 8-10% above the offensive average at their positions: Todd Helton, Garrett Atkins, Carlos Lee, Alex Rios, and Nick Swisher. Pretty good company. It's not a group of superstars, but each of these five players would be mighty difficult to pry away from their current organizations, and there's a reason for that.

It's easy to get frustrated at Kenji for his slumps and his double plays, but at the same time, you have to remember that he doesn't play an offense-first position. A lot of teams would kill to get his level of production out of their starting catchers. While his name tends to get forgotten when people talk about the better backstops in baseball, Kenji is better than AJ Pierzynski and light years ahead of what's left of Paul Lo Duca's career. He's better than Jason Varitek. He's better than Ivan Rodriguez. He's better than Bengie Molina. He's better than Johnny Estrada. Kenji is a second-tier offensive catcher, and that gives the Mariners an advantage over much of the rest of the league. Remember how, for the first few weeks of the season, Kenji pretty much carried this lineup on his back? There aren't too many catchers that can do that.

Aside from his offense, there are two other things that make Kenji a pretty special player - he's durable, and he rather substantially improved his work in the field. As far as the former is concerned, Kenji's 279 games over the last two years ranks third in the league among catchers, behind Victor Martinez and Jorge Posada. Somehow he's managed to stay healthy and effective despite seemingly getting hit in the nards at least once a week. He probably could've played even more last season were it not for the spectacular performance of The Best Backup Catcher Of All Time.

As for the latter, while Kenji's still prone to stabbing at pitches rather than get in front of them with his body, he cut his passed balls in half, and he nabbed 40 of 86 (46.5%) would-be basestealers after catching just 29 of 86 the year before. For the sake of comparison, Ivan Rodriguez has killed 47.5% of steal attempts over his career. Kenji's footwork was great and his release time was unthinkably quick, and just for good measure his throws were also more accurate. He's worked hard to eliminate some of his flaws, and the result is a solid all-around catcher - easily the best this team has ever had - whose only glaring weakness is a reluctance to walk.

It's a rather significant weakness, of course, and it's what's keeping Kenji from jumping into the upper tier, but it's not who he is, and considering that he does everything else pretty well, it seems silly to rip him for it. It wouldn't even be that noticeable of an issue if this lineup had one or two guys capable of working the damn count every now and then. Kenji Johjima is not a perfect offensive player, but he is a good one, and we're lucky to have him. More people would know that, too, if he weren't an extreme pull righty in a ballpark that devours extreme pull righties like the league devours John Parrish. Safeco is a curse as often as it's a blessing.

Kenji's job hasn't really changed much since last year - he's still the guy we're leaning on to get us to the Jeff Clement Era. Or, in the event that Jeff Clement gets traded for some suckass veteran rotation arm, Kenji's the guy we're leaning on until someone teaches Rob Johnson how to hit. Either way, the gig's all Kenji's for 2008 just as it was in 2007, and while he'll turn 32 next June, there's no reason to expect a big dropoff here. Between his industrious work ethic and performance stability, Kenji's a pretty safe bet for the short-term going forward, and when it comes time to either negotiate a new contract or bid him goodbye after the year, we're going to reflect on this as being one of the greatest investments the Mariners have ever made.

0 recs | Comment 30 comments

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Kenji
For someone who plays the most difficult position, I'm thrilled with Kenji's performance this year. It seems that the Mariner's haven't had a good catcher since.... well, some could argue Dan Wilson in 1995. But none of them have been the complete player that Kenji is. Great perspective on him, Jeff. I didn't realize his throw-out rate was so good.

How does he do with language issues?

by TheEmrys on Oct 30, 2007 6:04 AM PDT   0 recs

This seems like its a coin flip
Johjima's work ethic and contribution in the locker room are the things the Mariner brass fall in love with time and time again.  I would not be surprised to see Johjima get a 3-year extension.

Is there a scenario where both Clement and Johjima effectively co-exist for 3 years?  Neither have a bat that can justify DH-ing.  And if we did rotate the DH spot with them, we would still need a 3rd catcher.

Go Fo Broke!

by eknpdx on Oct 30, 2007 9:00 AM PDT   0 recs

Extension for Johjima
1st Base? Might even help them have a bit more longevity. Keep them both in the lineup, but I have no idea how a transition to 1st Base for a catcher is.

by TheEmrys on Oct 30, 2007 9:09 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Oh, thank God
Just as I was preparing to deal with the baseball offseason, Jeff starts his positional recaps. You just made my day suck a lot less, buddy.

by Sad Polar Bear on Oct 30, 2007 9:16 AM PDT   0 recs

Big agree on the defense
I wouldn't mind Kenji spending the winter with Clement trying to impart his release to him.

by Matthew on Oct 30, 2007 9:34 AM PDT   0 recs

Jeff
you said "nards"

by johnbai on Oct 30, 2007 9:42 AM PDT   0 recs

Kenji
is one of my favorite players.  I think if we happened to let him go to give Clement a chance in the offseason (something we will luckily never do), I wouldn't be as upset as I should considering how much I want Johjima on the team.  But otherwise he's one of the guys that keeps me watching daily.

Although the DP's are nauseating, but that seems like something he can work on.

Jose Vidro (DH - Ms) was arrested today in an Idaho Bathroom for having a wide stance and sucking.

by Librocrat on Oct 30, 2007 10:31 AM PDT   0 recs

Eh
He's just really slow. Really slow people hit into DP's.

by Jeff on Oct 30, 2007 2:11 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

All I know is
I'm glad Joh's on our side, though, I highly doubt he could throw out Ichiro.

Also my Dog loves him. Before I got an LCD TV, she would try and lick the T.V. during nearly every at bat.

One minor request, much like Player A, I would like to find a new name for Parrish. It makes me a little sick to read his name. I nominate, the lefty poo slinger.  

by InSpokane on Oct 30, 2007 11:29 AM PDT   0 recs

Who is player A again?
You can send me a lineup with his name in it, if you don't want to type it out, and I'll figure it out.

As for Parrish, we can call him J.P. Suckington.  Or   "Sir Harp" (anagram) or "hijrah porns" (longer anagram) or "ship horn jar" (also long anagram).  

Or Player FU.

Jose Vidro (DH - Ms) was arrested today in an Idaho Bathroom for having a wide stance and sucking.

by Librocrat on Oct 30, 2007 12:01 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Who is Player A?
Three words: red chin tickler

by Gomez on Oct 30, 2007 12:13 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I thought that was an anagram
but I searched for it in google and I think I got my answer.  Thanks.
Jose Vidro (DH - Ms) was arrested today in an Idaho Bathroom for having a wide stance and sucking.

by Librocrat on Oct 30, 2007 12:40 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

You are the first person to point that out to me
Thanks.
Jose Vidro (DH - Ms) was arrested today in an Idaho Bathroom for having a wide stance and sucking.

by Librocrat on Oct 30, 2007 1:02 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Follow up -
The comments on Bloomquist cracked me up.
Jose Vidro (DH - Ms) was arrested today in an Idaho Bathroom for having a wide stance and sucking.

by Librocrat on Oct 30, 2007 1:10 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Where is the wiki?
And by the way, Player A calls it "an imperial".
As opposed to "shaving error".

by Paytheline on Oct 30, 2007 4:59 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

also, direct link
llwiki.wikidot.com

by Matthew on Oct 30, 2007 5:01 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

IKEA!!!!!
"I restore a sense of childlike wonder to people's lives; you give them Zunes and Vista." -- Fake Steve Jobs to Borg employees

by PositivePaul on Oct 31, 2007 9:59 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Non-direct link
Google.

Not sure where it is?  Just google it.

... wait.

by Gomez on Oct 31, 2007 4:34 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

coming from the man
who wrote the LL HTML page

by marinerschas2 on Oct 30, 2007 10:19 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Hmm, Lance
like sir lance a lot.  We can call him Sir Sucks A Lot. (/juvenile)

by Gomez on Oct 30, 2007 12:14 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Lance?
I think you mean John, son...
"I restore a sense of childlike wonder to people's lives; you give them Zunes and Vista." -- Fake Steve Jobs to Borg employees

by PositivePaul on Oct 30, 2007 12:39 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Kenji is a handsome man.
I have to stop myself from licking the screen when he comes to bat.
I reject your reality and substitute my own!

by Phildopip on Oct 30, 2007 12:34 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

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