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I Really Hate This Playoff Format, Part 2

As a quick follow-up to a previous post, I decided to do a little research to find out just how often the better team really does win in the playoffs. Data goes back to the debut of the Wild Card. In the rare event that opposing teams had the same regular season record, I decided that the "better" team was the one with the better run differential. Results:

Better team wins series: 44
Worse team wins series: 46
Better team win%: .489

Since 1995, the MLB playoffs have basically been a coin flip. Regular season success hasn't mattered for shit.

And, no, it isn't like this in other sports. You know, the ones for which the playoffs aren't totally random. I looked at the NHL and NFL over the same time span (ignoring the strike-shortened 94-95 hockey season) to see how they stacked up. Because more teams make the playoffs in these two sports, I decided to throw out the first round and concentrate on the final eight, keeping things consistent with baseball and in theory eliminating the pretenders who didn't belong. The results:

NHL:

Better team wins series: 61
Worse team wins series: 30
Better team win%: .670

NFL:

Better team wins game: 63
Worse team wins game: 28
Better team win%: .692

(For the NFL, just as with MLB, tied records were broken in the direction of the team with the better point differential.)

Hockey and football: two sports where the playoffs actually test how good of a team you are.

The baseball playoffs make for some good stories and provide all kinds of suspense, but in the end, if the results don't in any way favor the better teams, then what's the point? What are we rewarding? This format needs to change.

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What's the solution?
Best-of-7 Divisional Series?

Only one home game for the wild card team?

Scrap the division format and go back to World Series-only post-seasons?

by G_ on Oct 26, 2007 4:08 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

It wouldn't solve everything
but I want best-of-nine series, with as few off-days as possible. The playoffs need to test the same things as the regular season.

by Jeff on Oct 26, 2007 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think the only format
that would really solve Jeff's proverbial woes would be one 14 team division and one 16 team division with the champ from each playing one 9 game World Series.

by Gomez on Oct 26, 2007 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Best-of-nine series...
are hardly better than 7 game series. I suppose if you really wanted to institute the absolute best format for determining the absolute best team in baseball, you would do away with divisions, each team would play an equal amount of games with every team in the same league, then you take the two pennant winners and play them in a best-of-19 or best-of-21 playoff series. 90% of the time, you'd probably get it right, with most of the "upsets" being a team that wins over a team that wasn't all that much better than them.

So do you suppose MLB would think this is in their best interest?

by nathaniel dawson on Oct 26, 2007 8:35 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

A best-of-nine with fewer off-days
is better than a drawn out best-of-seven. Just because we can't fix the entire problem doesn't mean it's not worth fixing part of it. If this could get us, I dunno, 5% closer to actually making sense, then it's worth trying out.

by Jeff on Oct 27, 2007 2:45 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

BUT
we all know that winning and losing games is only indirectly related to how "good" you actually are.  

So your study should have only focused on pythag record, rather than actual record.  That would be a better indicator of whether MLB playoffs are random or if the better team tends to win.

Also: Baseball limits the postseason to the 8 teams that are actually VERY good.  (Jokes about the NL inserted here.)  Other sports allow tons of middle-of-the-pack teams into the playoffs which accounts for a lot of first round sweeps.  This makes the cross-sport analysis skewed.

by johnbai on Oct 26, 2007 4:10 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Maybe there is more parity in baseball
And thats why they need to play 162 games to kinda see who is better and that doesn't really even do it (Diamondbacks and Mariners, I'm looking at you).  I don't think you are gonna be able to do much to improve things.  The only way I could see to have the best team win would be to have something like a best of 15 which would never happen and just be stupid.  Football normally has teams that almost win or lose all their games.  This level of disparity just does not exist in baseball.

I still think its pretty difficult to say who is the best team though.  I'm gonna bet run differential doesn't tell you that all the time.  How do you feel about using RPI instead where RPI is 25% team winning percentage, 50% opponents' average winning percentage, and 25% opponents' opponents' average winning percentage or something like that.  I am a little surprised to see the other sports playoffs worked so much better.

by Edgar for Pres on Oct 26, 2007 4:17 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

First round byes might help, like the NFL does
You eliminate half or a third of the bad teams right off the bat without eliminating any of the good teams.

But at the same time, I want to see as few off-days as possible, so I wouldn't be too crazy about teams not playing while they wait for an entire series to play out.

by Zack on Oct 26, 2007 4:36 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Here's the thing
The playoff participants, save for the wildcards, are the champions of each division.  It would stand to reason that once you're holding playoffs between the best of the best, of course it's going to be a crapshoot.  You're matching two roughly equally good teams.

by Gomez on Oct 26, 2007 4:51 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't think they're roughly equally good.
There's a pretty big spread in talent between playoff teams.

by Jeff on Oct 26, 2007 5:12 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I wouldn't call it a large spread
AL Playoff Teams:
Team / Win% / PythagWin%
Boston / .593 / .635
NYY / .580 / .608
CLE / .593 / .570
ANA / .580 / .558

AFC Playoff Teams:
Team / Win%
NE / .750
NYJ / .625
BAL / .813
IND / .750
SD / .875
KC / .563

There is just a lot more variation.

by Edgar for Pres on Oct 26, 2007 5:43 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not including every NHL/NFL playoff team
I cut away four of them in football and eight in hockey in an attempt to do away with those lower teams who slipped in.

by Jeff on Oct 26, 2007 5:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Upsets are cool because they're rare.
That doesn't really apply in a sport where the better team only wins half the time.

by Jeff on Oct 26, 2007 6:57 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I see your point
Another hackeneyed idea of mine is round robin playoffs... every playoff team in both leagues plays a pair of 4 game series with each other. Best record (with run differential as the tiebreak) goes to a best of 9 World Series.

by Gomez on Oct 26, 2007 7:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

How about 7 game series
with a 3-4 format. You could eliminate a ton of the off days, and post-season series would better mimic the regular season ones.

I also like the idea of a bye for the best teams, although that necessitates either the elimination of the wildcard or the inclusion of an additional 2 teams (and a whole nother round) of playoffs.

by sammy on Oct 26, 2007 4:51 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

the only thing about that
you wouldn't want to start a team off with 3 games at home, that could put the other team in a pretty tough spot going home down 0-3

by CKel on Oct 26, 2007 4:54 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also, in the event of a sweep,
one team would only get one game's worth of home ticket sales.
What do I look like, a guy who's not lazy?

by Rollo Tomasi on Oct 26, 2007 4:58 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Here's the obvious problem
In a nutshell, TV. MLB wants to make as much money from it as possible. Eliminating off-days basically means that in the Division Series, more games will be held per day, which leads games to either be in unfavorable time slots or having multiple games at the same time...which both decrease ratings and $$$. So if MLB makes any changes to the system, they'll be sacrificing cash.

I guess you could do a 154 game regular season and playoff series with 7-9-9 games, and daygames on weekends so you could cut down on a travel day or two.

by Nick S on Oct 26, 2007 5:52 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

More games is no solution
(and this isn't supposed to be insulting - if it appears that way, I appeal based on physical exhaustion)

If a 7-game series is a coin flip, how are 2 more games going to make any difference?  How about 3?  5?  7?

Unless we're prepared to go to a 19-game series, the only possible way to give a concrete advantage is to give the team with the better record some form of advantage...  a free 'run' in every series game for every additional 3 wins in the regular season, or a series 'win' for every additional 5 or 6 wins in the regular season.  Some garbage like that, which would have purists and everyone else up in arms.

This may just be part of the game.  If it's something solvable, we're going to need more research to find out why the difference in MLB as opposed to NFL/NHL before we can fix it, unless we're prepared to do something totally arbitrary that could ruin a few team's legitimate playoff runs.

World Series or bust!!!

by KingCorran on Oct 26, 2007 5:57 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Told you I was tired...
...grammar, spelling, punctuation out the window.
World Series or bust!!!

by KingCorran on Oct 26, 2007 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The difference, by and large
is that (A) the baseball playoffs leave a lot of room for luck, and (B) the baseball playoffs reward topheavy rotations.

If you play a best-of-nine with, say, one off-day, then you've somewhat reduced the amount of noise, and forced each team to use its depth far more than it does under the current format. It's no perfect fix, but it's the best legitimate solution I can come up with.

by Jeff on Oct 26, 2007 6:03 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Whatever solution...
that comes up should involve screwing Boston, like they need to win 5 games or their fans need to shut the hell up before moving on to the next round.

Let's face it. The current playoff format is inordinately encouraging the Red Sox, on their way to a second World Series in four years. We know what that means. Insufferable jackassery. This must not happen.

Let's think outside the box here people.

"Hey, guess what? Nobody cares who would win in a crazy fantasy fist-fight between Anne Frank and Lizzie Borden." The Monarch

by crushedoptimist on Oct 26, 2007 6:22 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I beg to differ
  1. As soon as a championship is awarded based on an elemination tournament, the question which team played best over the whole season becomes irrelevant. Most of us agree that the Mariners were the best team in 2001 but because MLB determines its champion in an elemination tournament, that fact is not relevant. Most European soccer leagues award their championships by looking at the season record and that has a lot of merrit. And it provides for some drama as well (just ask fans of Schalke 04).
  2. Rather, in an elemination tournament, the question is whether the team that wins is the team that played best in the tournament. This is where baseball's randomness comes into play. I've heard of a study (I don't have a source, unfortunately) according to which baseball is by far the most luck-dependent as compared to football, soccer, basketball, hockey and tennis (tennis is the least luck-dependent, btw). You can see this in the regular season records: If I am not mistaken, no MLB team managed to win 60% of its games this year. In football, winning only 60% of your games might not even get you to the playoffs. There has been one perfect season in football (Dolphins in the early 70s) and the Patriots might have another one this year.
  3. In spite of baseball's randomness, my recollection of the most recent world series (04, 05, 06) suggests that they were won by the team that clearly played better. We'll see whether this year's world series will become a close contest. So far, it seems that Boston deserves to be in the lead, having outscored Colorado by a factor of five.
  4. Having said this, I agree with your point about the scheduling.

by vj on Oct 27, 2007 7:03 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Point 2 is indeed correct
I think it might have been a BP study. Interestingly, among the four sports with similar reg/post seasons (NHL, NBA, NFL, MLB), in the end, the percentage that a good team comes out on top over the reg season evens up. That is, the more luck driven a sport is, the longer it's regular season, thus the more likely the better teams separate from the pack.

It appears to be one of those weird cases where the intuitive decision seemed to have greater consequences than originally thought. Much like the 90' basepath. You add or subtract as little as 5% to that distance and baseball is a totally different game.

by Matthew on Oct 27, 2007 9:43 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Another difference in baseball
Something that seems to be implied, but not really stated in past comments is the fact that unlike those other sports, the team put on the field each night changes significantly in baseball. This makes the 'better team' hinge on a different person each night (although the position players make a difference, the starter & pitching role is most significant; what if you changed starting QB's every game in football?).

With that in mind, even compressing the schedule doesn't change the luck factor; in might in fact create more randomness, if you presume that the lower-rotation pitchers are more likely to be 'who knows?' in a game.

If performance numbers are based on hefty sample sizes, then it seems that the best way to make playoffs correlate is to increase that sample size such that the 'truth' of those numbers come out, regardless of the days off.

by erichjz on Oct 27, 2007 8:16 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I like the idea of reducing the noise
and removing some of the luck from the playoffs, but i don't know if its going to happen while Bud is the commissioner. I do think that they will do something about the amount of days off, considering that the last two years have given a team with a week plus off a huge disadvantage and made it hard to keep fans interested.

by thenatural on Oct 27, 2007 9:01 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Two Birds, One Stone
I like the idea of more games in less time, so that we see more rotation depth.  In addition, perhaps MLB could mandate that some of these extra games be played during the day so that this nation's youth could actually watch a game or two.

LDS WC vs Division Champ - 4 best of 7 series, 2-3-2, with two afternoon games and one day of rest after a game 5.  Half start 10/2, other half start 10/3.  Two have travel day after game two, two after game 5
10/2 at DC
10/3 afternoon game at DC (travel day)
10/4 at WC
10/5 at WC
10/6 afternoon game at WC (travel day)
10/8 at DC
10/9 at DC

LCS starts 10/11 (best of 9) (2 best of 9 series 3-4-2, with two afternoon games and one day of rest after game three or game seven)

WS starts 10/22 (best of 9) same format as LCS

Yes, even the World Series has games that my kids could actually watch.  More games in less time, means the whole pitching staff and bench becomes important, and how the manager picks and chooses. TV gets more games to show for the same price.  Rest is reward for winning quickly, but even if you sweep, you don't have to wait more than 5 days for a best of 9 to finish and the next series to start.

by marineroptimist on Oct 27, 2007 9:30 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Solution:
  1. Do away with divisions.
  2. Do away with playoffs.
  3. Team with the best record in their league is crowned "League Champion"
  4. The two League Champions meet at the local arcade and play "Dance Dance Revolution"
  5. The winner of "Dance Dance Revolution" is crowned "World Champion"
  6. ????
  7. Everybody is happy.
I reject your reality and substitute my own!

by Phildopip on Oct 27, 2007 11:06 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Boston would always lose
Manny and Ortiz are not slick.
Jose Vidro (DH - Ms) was arrested today in an Idaho Bathroom for having a wide stance and sucking.

by Librocrat on Oct 27, 2007 2:02 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The question is what do we want out of a playoff
Are you really unhappy with watching them?  Was the Boston vs Cleveland series not entertaining?  Colorado' story?  I'm having fun.  I don't really care who should win the world series.  I watch cause I want to see who actually wins.  When I stop watching the WS, I'll let you know.  Until then I'm not gonna worry about it.

by Edgar for Pres on Oct 27, 2007 12:22 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

The problms are
  1. That the integrity of the playoffs is being compromised for FOX's primetime ratings.
  2. The dumbasses who say winning the World Series equates to being TEH BEST TEAM IN BASEBALL!!!!!1!!one!

by JI on Oct 27, 2007 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Okay, Devil's Advocate
Sometimes a team becomes a better team at the end of the year - by, say, calling up minor leaguers who end up being amazing, or a few of their players who were injured get healthier, or a bad pitcher gets injured and the late replacement from the 40 man roster is mediocre, but good enough to add several wins.  

There are trades, there are people who "late bloom" (Sexson is supposed to be one of those people)... Could that account for some of the reasons the "underdog" wins the WS? They could actually, at that time, be the better team, right? Even if they weren't a better team over the course of the year.

Jose Vidro (DH - Ms) was arrested today in an Idaho Bathroom for having a wide stance and sucking.

by Librocrat on Oct 27, 2007 2:14 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't believe so, no.
And besides, the exact same principles apply in hockey.

by Jeff on Oct 27, 2007 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't know how much I believe what I wrote
But I have a hard time disbelieving it too.  For example, I'd say part of the "luck" in baseball is who you have to pitch.  Does your game fall on a day that Felix is pitching? Or does it fall on a day where Weaver is pitching? Is Johjima playing today? Is Burke? Is Putz still tired from yesterdays save, so that you only have Reitsma available?

I question those when I watch the playoff games, because even though there is such a blatant randomness to some wins, sometimes you can watch a game where the worse team beats the "better team" and say to yourself: "Wow, at least today, that team was definitely better than the other team." So that, in that case, it wasn't a random victory, it was a team that at least for one game was better than the team that was supposed to be its superior.  Then, if that happens the next game, and the next game, and the next game, it's hard to argue that it was random. It could also be that the worse team simply got better.

Anyway, like I said, even I have a tough time believing what I'm writing - but if we argue that trades matter, or that we should call up Adam Jones, or that we should move Beltre to bat third and move Sexson down to 7th, etc., what we're arguing is a way to make a worse team better.  If any one of those small moves works, a team like Boston will still seem like a better team, but if the Mariners had beaten them who is to say that the Mariners were not actually a better team then Boston, it just didn't fall into place until later in the season.

Feel free and replace "Mariners" with "Colorado" if necessary.  My Colorado example: Tulowitzki was batting 7th on July 31st.  Now he bats 2nd.  That small change could (in hypothetical land, of course) be the small change that made Colorado a better team than team x.  The record wouldn't show it, but it could still be true.  

Jose Vidro (DH - Ms) was arrested today in an Idaho Bathroom for having a wide stance and sucking.

by Librocrat on Oct 27, 2007 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

RE: Hockey
Hockey does a much better job of making depth the definition of a good team.  There are still some stars, but a good team is defined by every player in it.  Not true in baseball, obviously.  If your starting pitching is Peavy, Young, Sabathia, Santana and Felix - then really, your hitting becomes much less important.  But that team is still the better team thanks to its stars.  And, unlike hockey, the better team really is often defined by their stars.  They're still better though.  I don't like that depth isn't utilized or appreciated in baseball, but it's also not how we define the best team in a league anyway.
Jose Vidro (DH - Ms) was arrested today in an Idaho Bathroom for having a wide stance and sucking.

by Librocrat on Oct 27, 2007 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The hotter team argument
doesn't have much traction... mostly because there's nothing you can do about it, and it cuts across all sports.

I like the "match-up" argument though.  Like when the Sonics had the best record in the west and lost to the Denver Mutombos.  Was it a classic choke?  Or did Denver's D just give the Sonics fits?  

In baseball, might a certain team get to the playoffs by riding 3 good junkball pitchers only to face a team that destroys junkballers?  It seems like unfavorable match ups often lead teams to lose a series even though they were the "better" team.

by johnbai on Oct 27, 2007 2:57 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

After reading that again
I realize that match ups are also a case of: there's nothing you can do about it, and it cuts across all sports.

by johnbai on Oct 27, 2007 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

You have to remember to answer the question
"Why did team x lose in the first place." Sometimes you can find a reason for that that is not related to if they have a good team. Injuries, health, a star player who was struggling, or an underutilized bench player whose potential went unnoticed until later in the season. If you can find a reason that the team had lost, thus giving them a worse record than they deserved, you can find a reason that they can beat the team that's "better" than them.
Jose Vidro (DH - Ms) was arrested today in an Idaho Bathroom for having a wide stance and sucking.

by Librocrat on Oct 27, 2007 3:33 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

If you really want to know who is the best
then get rid of divisions and have all the teams play each other 5 times a year.  That'd give you a 150 game season.  Don't have playoffs and just give the rings to the team with the best record at the end.  You'd also have to make the rules for all teams the same so figure out whether or not to keep the DH.  So no more rivals and no more pennant races except for the top couple teams.  Sounds pretty boring to me.  I'd rather have a random tournament with the best teams and reward who wins it.

by Edgar for Pres on Oct 27, 2007 3:40 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I still want to keep the playoffs.
I'd just prefer that some changes are made so that they're actually testing the same strengths and weaknesses as the regular season. Because otherwise, what's the point?

by Jeff on Oct 27, 2007 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think there is much you are gonna
be able to do to change it.  Maybe giving less days off to make it so teams need to use more than 3 of their SP but besides that I don't see much that would help.

by Edgar for Pres on Oct 27, 2007 5:37 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe the problem
is the enormous grind of the regular season, which doesn't encourage the highest-level intensity in every game.

Who wants to watch play-off game where some of the best players get the day off? Or some replacement level scrub reliever comes in to eat innings after the starter gives up 7 runs in the 2nd inning?

What're ya gonna do with those pies, boys?

by rickp on Oct 27, 2007 11:13 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

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