I Really Hate This Playoff Format, Part 2
As a quick follow-up to a previous post, I decided to do a little research to find out just how often the better team really does win in the playoffs. Data goes back to the debut of the Wild Card. In the rare event that opposing teams had the same regular season record, I decided that the "better" team was the one with the better run differential. Results:
Better team wins series: 44
Worse team wins series: 46
Better team win%: .489
Since 1995, the MLB playoffs have basically been a coin flip. Regular season success hasn't mattered for shit.
And, no, it isn't like this in other sports. You know, the ones for which the playoffs aren't totally random. I looked at the NHL and NFL over the same time span (ignoring the strike-shortened 94-95 hockey season) to see how they stacked up. Because more teams make the playoffs in these two sports, I decided to throw out the first round and concentrate on the final eight, keeping things consistent with baseball and in theory eliminating the pretenders who didn't belong. The results:
NHL:
Better team wins series: 61
Worse team wins series: 30
Better team win%: .670
NFL:
Better team wins game: 63
Worse team wins game: 28
Better team win%: .692
(For the NFL, just as with MLB, tied records were broken in the direction of the team with the better point differential.)
Hockey and football: two sports where the playoffs actually test how good of a team you are.
The baseball playoffs make for some good stories and provide all kinds of suspense, but in the end, if the results don't in any way favor the better teams, then what's the point? What are we rewarding? This format needs to change.
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47 comments
Comments
What's the solution?
Only one home game for the wild card team?
Scrap the division format and go back to World Series-only post-seasons?
by G_ on Oct 26, 2007 4:08 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
It wouldn't solve everything
by Jeff on Oct 26, 2007 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the only format
by Gomez on Oct 26, 2007 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Best-of-nine series...
So do you suppose MLB would think this is in their best interest?
by nathaniel dawson on Oct 26, 2007 8:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A best-of-nine with fewer off-days
by Jeff on Oct 27, 2007 2:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
BUT
So your study should have only focused on pythag record, rather than actual record. That would be a better indicator of whether MLB playoffs are random or if the better team tends to win.
Also: Baseball limits the postseason to the 8 teams that are actually VERY good. (Jokes about the NL inserted here.) Other sports allow tons of middle-of-the-pack teams into the playoffs which accounts for a lot of first round sweeps. This makes the cross-sport analysis skewed.
by johnbai on Oct 26, 2007 4:10 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Note to self
by johnbai on Oct 27, 2007 9:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe there is more parity in baseball
I still think its pretty difficult to say who is the best team though. I'm gonna bet run differential doesn't tell you that all the time. How do you feel about using RPI instead where RPI is 25% team winning percentage, 50% opponents' average winning percentage, and 25% opponents' opponents' average winning percentage or something like that. I am a little surprised to see the other sports playoffs worked so much better.
by Edgar for Pres on Oct 26, 2007 4:17 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
First round byes might help, like the NFL does
But at the same time, I want to see as few off-days as possible, so I wouldn't be too crazy about teams not playing while they wait for an entire series to play out.
by Zack on Oct 26, 2007 4:36 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Here's the thing
by Gomez on Oct 26, 2007 4:51 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't think they're roughly equally good.
by Jeff on Oct 26, 2007 5:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't call it a large spread
Team / Win% / PythagWin%
Boston / .593 / .635
NYY / .580 / .608
CLE / .593 / .570
ANA / .580 / .558
AFC Playoff Teams:
Team / Win%
NE / .750
NYJ / .625
BAL / .813
IND / .750
SD / .875
KC / .563
There is just a lot more variation.
by Edgar for Pres on Oct 26, 2007 5:43 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not including every NHL/NFL playoff team
by Jeff on Oct 26, 2007 5:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I gather you're not a big fan of upsets
by Gomez on Oct 26, 2007 6:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Upsets are cool because they're rare.
by Jeff on Oct 26, 2007 6:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I see your point
by Gomez on Oct 26, 2007 7:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
How about 7 game series
I also like the idea of a bye for the best teams, although that necessitates either the elimination of the wildcard or the inclusion of an additional 2 teams (and a whole nother round) of playoffs.
by sammy on Oct 26, 2007 4:51 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
the only thing about that
by CKel on Oct 26, 2007 4:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also, in the event of a sweep,
by Rollo Tomasi on Oct 26, 2007 4:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here's the obvious problem
I guess you could do a 154 game regular season and playoff series with 7-9-9 games, and daygames on weekends so you could cut down on a travel day or two.
by Nick S on Oct 26, 2007 5:52 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
More games is no solution
If a 7-game series is a coin flip, how are 2 more games going to make any difference? How about 3? 5? 7?
Unless we're prepared to go to a 19-game series, the only possible way to give a concrete advantage is to give the team with the better record some form of advantage... a free 'run' in every series game for every additional 3 wins in the regular season, or a series 'win' for every additional 5 or 6 wins in the regular season. Some garbage like that, which would have purists and everyone else up in arms.
This may just be part of the game. If it's something solvable, we're going to need more research to find out why the difference in MLB as opposed to NFL/NHL before we can fix it, unless we're prepared to do something totally arbitrary that could ruin a few team's legitimate playoff runs.
by KingCorran on Oct 26, 2007 5:57 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Told you I was tired...
by KingCorran on Oct 26, 2007 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The difference, by and large
If you play a best-of-nine with, say, one off-day, then you've somewhat reduced the amount of noise, and forced each team to use its depth far more than it does under the current format. It's no perfect fix, but it's the best legitimate solution I can come up with.
by Jeff on Oct 26, 2007 6:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Whatever solution...
Let's face it. The current playoff format is inordinately encouraging the Red Sox, on their way to a second World Series in four years. We know what that means. Insufferable jackassery. This must not happen.
Let's think outside the box here people.
by crushedoptimist on Oct 26, 2007 6:22 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I beg to differ
- As soon as a championship is awarded based on an elemination tournament, the question which team played best over the whole season becomes irrelevant. Most of us agree that the Mariners were the best team in 2001 but because MLB determines its champion in an elemination tournament, that fact is not relevant. Most European soccer leagues award their championships by looking at the season record and that has a lot of merrit. And it provides for some drama as well (just ask fans of Schalke 04).
- Rather, in an elemination tournament, the question is whether the team that wins is the team that played best in the tournament. This is where baseball's randomness comes into play. I've heard of a study (I don't have a source, unfortunately) according to which baseball is by far the most luck-dependent as compared to football, soccer, basketball, hockey and tennis (tennis is the least luck-dependent, btw). You can see this in the regular season records: If I am not mistaken, no MLB team managed to win 60% of its games this year. In football, winning only 60% of your games might not even get you to the playoffs. There has been one perfect season in football (Dolphins in the early 70s) and the Patriots might have another one this year.
- In spite of baseball's randomness, my recollection of the most recent world series (04, 05, 06) suggests that they were won by the team that clearly played better. We'll see whether this year's world series will become a close contest. So far, it seems that Boston deserves to be in the lead, having outscored Colorado by a factor of five.
- Having said this, I agree with your point about the scheduling.
by vj on Oct 27, 2007 7:03 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Point 2 is indeed correct
It appears to be one of those weird cases where the intuitive decision seemed to have greater consequences than originally thought. Much like the 90' basepath. You add or subtract as little as 5% to that distance and baseball is a totally different game.
by Matthew on Oct 27, 2007 9:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Another difference in baseball
With that in mind, even compressing the schedule doesn't change the luck factor; in might in fact create more randomness, if you presume that the lower-rotation pitchers are more likely to be 'who knows?' in a game.
If performance numbers are based on hefty sample sizes, then it seems that the best way to make playoffs correlate is to increase that sample size such that the 'truth' of those numbers come out, regardless of the days off.
by erichjz on Oct 27, 2007 8:16 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I like the idea of reducing the noise
by thenatural on Oct 27, 2007 9:01 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Two Birds, One Stone
LDS WC vs Division Champ - 4 best of 7 series, 2-3-2, with two afternoon games and one day of rest after a game 5. Half start 10/2, other half start 10/3. Two have travel day after game two, two after game 5
10/2 at DC
10/3 afternoon game at DC (travel day)
10/4 at WC
10/5 at WC
10/6 afternoon game at WC (travel day)
10/8 at DC
10/9 at DC
LCS starts 10/11 (best of 9) (2 best of 9 series 3-4-2, with two afternoon games and one day of rest after game three or game seven)
WS starts 10/22 (best of 9) same format as LCS
Yes, even the World Series has games that my kids could actually watch. More games in less time, means the whole pitching staff and bench becomes important, and how the manager picks and chooses. TV gets more games to show for the same price. Rest is reward for winning quickly, but even if you sweep, you don't have to wait more than 5 days for a best of 9 to finish and the next series to start.
by marineroptimist on Oct 27, 2007 9:30 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Solution:
- Do away with divisions.
- Do away with playoffs.
- Team with the best record in their league is crowned "League Champion"
- The two League Champions meet at the local arcade and play "Dance Dance Revolution"
- The winner of "Dance Dance Revolution" is crowned "World Champion"
- ????
- Everybody is happy.
by Phildopip on Oct 27, 2007 11:06 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Boston would always lose
by Librocrat on Oct 27, 2007 2:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You know what I love?
by Matthew on Oct 27, 2007 12:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The question is what do we want out of a playoff
by Edgar for Pres on Oct 27, 2007 12:22 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The problms are
- That the integrity of the playoffs is being compromised for FOX's primetime ratings.
- The dumbasses who say winning the World Series equates to being TEH BEST TEAM IN BASEBALL!!!!!1!!one!
by JI on Oct 27, 2007 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Okay, Devil's Advocate
There are trades, there are people who "late bloom" (Sexson is supposed to be one of those people)... Could that account for some of the reasons the "underdog" wins the WS? They could actually, at that time, be the better team, right? Even if they weren't a better team over the course of the year.
by Librocrat on Oct 27, 2007 2:14 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't believe so, no.
by Jeff on Oct 27, 2007 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know how much I believe what I wrote
I question those when I watch the playoff games, because even though there is such a blatant randomness to some wins, sometimes you can watch a game where the worse team beats the "better team" and say to yourself: "Wow, at least today, that team was definitely better than the other team." So that, in that case, it wasn't a random victory, it was a team that at least for one game was better than the team that was supposed to be its superior. Then, if that happens the next game, and the next game, and the next game, it's hard to argue that it was random. It could also be that the worse team simply got better.
Anyway, like I said, even I have a tough time believing what I'm writing - but if we argue that trades matter, or that we should call up Adam Jones, or that we should move Beltre to bat third and move Sexson down to 7th, etc., what we're arguing is a way to make a worse team better. If any one of those small moves works, a team like Boston will still seem like a better team, but if the Mariners had beaten them who is to say that the Mariners were not actually a better team then Boston, it just didn't fall into place until later in the season.
Feel free and replace "Mariners" with "Colorado" if necessary. My Colorado example: Tulowitzki was batting 7th on July 31st. Now he bats 2nd. That small change could (in hypothetical land, of course) be the small change that made Colorado a better team than team x. The record wouldn't show it, but it could still be true.
by Librocrat on Oct 27, 2007 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
RE: Hockey
by Librocrat on Oct 27, 2007 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The hotter team argument
I like the "match-up" argument though. Like when the Sonics had the best record in the west and lost to the Denver Mutombos. Was it a classic choke? Or did Denver's D just give the Sonics fits?
In baseball, might a certain team get to the playoffs by riding 3 good junkball pitchers only to face a team that destroys junkballers? It seems like unfavorable match ups often lead teams to lose a series even though they were the "better" team.
by johnbai on Oct 27, 2007 2:57 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
After reading that again
by johnbai on Oct 27, 2007 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You have to remember to answer the question
by Librocrat on Oct 27, 2007 3:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you really want to know who is the best
by Edgar for Pres on Oct 27, 2007 3:40 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I still want to keep the playoffs.
by Jeff on Oct 27, 2007 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think there is much you are gonna
by Edgar for Pres on Oct 27, 2007 5:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe the problem
Who wants to watch play-off game where some of the best players get the day off? Or some replacement level scrub reliever comes in to eat innings after the starter gives up 7 runs in the 2nd inning?
by rickp on Oct 27, 2007 11:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

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