New Bill James study on the Pythag...

by etowncoug on Oct 21, 2007 9:07 PM PDT

My brother in Law found this study on the Pythag. and posted an overview of his thoughts over at Hardball Review.

I think the first question Mariner fans will be asking themselves when making projections about next season will be the pythag issue: Can the Mariners defy the pythag?

http://hardballreview.wordpress.com/2007/10/22/new-study-on-pythagorean-baseball/#comments

The link to the actual study is found in the comments section.

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Interesting article

and I hope that the M's architects are aware of these facts.

My guess though, is that the FO thinks of this team as an 85-90 win ballclub that had it's pythag disproportionally skewed downward by Weaver's early incompetence and HoRam's suckitude.

by johnbai on Oct 22, 2007 1:32 PM PDT reply actions

it's cute that you think the FO has an idea

what pythag is

by Matthew on Oct 22, 2007 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions

it's cute that you think the FO has an idea

Jose Vidro (DH - Ms) was arrested today in an Idaho Bathroom for having a wide stance and sucking.

by CapSea on Oct 22, 2007 1:56 PM PDT up reply actions

They have lots of ideas.

Bad ideas count as ideas.

by eponymous coward on Oct 22, 2007 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions

I think even hardcore numbers guys wouldn't be terribly surprised by this.
People have talked about a top-notch closer being one reason a team might 'beat' its pythag, and if that same guy lasts more than 1-2 seasons, it might go a long way towards explaining this.
Let's remember: the degree to which teams 'beat' expectations in the second year were limited (significant, but small), so I don't think this is life-changing.
But it's good for the D-backs fans (and us, to a lesser degree).

by marc w on Oct 22, 2007 2:46 PM PDT reply actions

I think the D-Backs pythag will be regressing

to their record, instead of the other way around.

These pretzels....are making me thirsty!

by Goose on Oct 22, 2007 3:19 PM PDT up reply actions

Spoken like a true fan

Yeah, who knows? If Stephen Drew can take a step forward, and if Upton arrives early, then maybe so.

They may need to sort out that rotation, but yeah, they've actually got a better shot than the M's.

by marc w on Oct 22, 2007 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions

don't know about that

since the Ms can make some really easy fixes (OF defense, no HoRam) that could shave 50+ runs allowed.

by Matthew on Oct 22, 2007 4:44 PM PDT up reply actions

This is the M's.

Forgive me if I'm not holding my breath for them to make the "easy" fixes.

I'm never blocking a fire exit.

by Thingray on Oct 22, 2007 4:46 PM PDT up reply actions

true

I was speaking about possibility, not probability

by Matthew on Oct 22, 2007 4:48 PM PDT up reply actions

That is all a true M's fan can do.

I'm never blocking a fire exit.

by Thingray on Oct 22, 2007 4:59 PM PDT up reply actions

Drew is a mystery. He's the one I have the

highest doubts about improving.

The biggest problem was the offense obviously. The D-Backs had the best ERA+ in the NL, and thats with just a half dozen starts from RJ. As far as the rotation goes, if Johnson is able to pitch, they have a pretty good one. I think Owings can be a solid #3, and Davis a borderline #3, solid #4. But regardless I think they'll end up trading for a starter.

As far as the offense goes, Young and Reynolds will take steps forward I hope, Jackson has done nothing but get better in the power department, so I think he'll have a good year next year. Snyder had a fantastic 2nd half in 07, so hopefully he'll have a good 08. Byrnes will be good in the first half, and a 4th OF in the 2nd half. And Upton is kind of a wildcard I guess.

These pretzels....are making me thirsty!

by Goose on Oct 22, 2007 8:59 PM PDT up reply actions

Drew's BABIP was low.

And... is there any hope Owings plays the field?

by JI on Oct 22, 2007 10:59 PM PDT up reply actions

Drew's LD% was low too. He's worring us for sure.

And probably not with Owings. If he flames out as a pitcher, then maybe. He's supposedly a decent defensive outfielder. However, the D-Backs have the outfield settled for years to come and then some. But, he should make a decent #3 starter, so I think he should stay there.

I do think they should be batting him around 6th or so in the lineup when he pitches though.

These pretzels....are making me thirsty!

by Goose on Oct 24, 2007 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions