Fans' Scouting Report - Results

by tangotiger on Oct 15, 2007 10:15 AM PDT Comment 29 comments

http://www.tangotiger.net/scouting/scoutResults2007.html

Thanks to all who participated. We had another record number of ballots submitted (over 1700). I find these helpful and informative, especially while watching the teams in the playoffs that I don't normally get to see.

Tom

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only surprise

to me is Kenji being so low given that he had a legit great defensive season in the areas that we can actually measure (WP, PB and SB/CS).

by Matthew on Oct 15, 2007 10:19 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Kenji has some interesting numbers

His overall score is held down by his speed, which really isn't that relevant to his defense, but he's clearly pretty slow. And overall, the level of agreement on Kenji wasn't particularly good (which might just say we don't know how to evaluate catcher defense).

by Llewdor on Oct 15, 2007 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The rules of the game

state that you're not supposed to take position into account, so Kenji's footspeed and 'first step' are always going to pull his ranking down.
I think the Kenji rating was, on the whole, pretty darn good. He doesn't have the strongest throwing arm in the world, but he's successful with it. He's the sort of guy that would/should perform a bit better in the measurable stats than his 'tools' would suggest.

by marc w on Oct 15, 2007 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

it's his arm that I was surprised about

considering they nailed essentially the same percentage of would-be offenders and both severely limited the running game in total, take a look at the difference in arm ratings for Kenji and Joe Mauer.

And with the few WP/PB allowed, I would expect to see a higher 'Hands' rating.

Again, I know a lot of its reputation based. I'm just pointing out the one rating that I disagree with.

by Matthew on Oct 15, 2007 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kenji's Release...

should be much higher than 58. He gets rid of the ball as fast as anyone I've ever seen.

by PLU Tim on Oct 15, 2007 5:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ichiro highest at 89

Adam Everett and Rolen next at 86
85 for Flyin Hawaiin and Endy Chavez with Beltran at 84

AROD leads the yanks at 69, better than Wright's 66

Jeter above average at 55

I think Ellison is a bit low, he seems like a dynamite LF/CF to me.

http://seattlesportsmaniac.blogspot.com

by LantermanC on Oct 15, 2007 10:36 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I guess Jeter's above average makes sense

since he is a below average SS, he is overall, slightly above average

http://seattlesportsmaniac.blogspot.com

by LantermanC on Oct 15, 2007 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Look at the agreement score

for Jeter - looks like this result might be the aggregate of a bunch of people who think he sucks and a bunch of people who think he's the best defensive SS in the league.

I couldn't find many agreement scores below .5; anyone else find someone who really split the fans?

by marc w on Oct 15, 2007 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Whoops

Ichiro is 91 apparently, so he's the highest by 5? I think the influx of us overrating him might've caused this. There're probably more mariner blog fans than other fans or something.

http://seattlesportsmaniac.blogspot.com

by LantermanC on Oct 15, 2007 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes

for example, look at the Astros team page, highest # of ballots is for Ty Wigginton at 26. The lowest ballot size on the Ms is 86 for Ellison, then 116 for Burke.

The Ms response blows every team except Boston out of the water.

by Matthew on Oct 15, 2007 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

Angels highest was Vlad at 28 less then half what our 4th outfielder who got DFA'd

Don't listen to their lies, Bill! Look at the sparkly ERA! Sparkly sparkly! - McCovey Chronicles

by Trenchtown2 on Oct 15, 2007 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Angels fans

don't believe in evaluation and analysis like this anyway.

by G_ on Oct 15, 2007 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

angels fans

don't deserve as good of a team as they have

Don't listen to their lies, Bill! Look at the sparkly ERA! Sparkly sparkly! - McCovey Chronicles

by Trenchtown2 on Oct 15, 2007 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks Tom!

Great work again; it's a valuable tool to look at as I try and parse why Dewan/THT and UZR are getting so many contradictory results.
Has Raul Ibanez always sucked (UZR says yes), or was he very good until 2007 (as Dewan would suggest)? Richie Sexson - god-awful (UZR) or underrated (THT)?
Obviously, Ichiro's the best example of this phenomenon.

The fan scouting report provides a nice reality check to all the noise in the PBP metrics.

Still, I'd be curious if the results you got from MLB.com referrals was noticeably different than blog referrals? I know I'm harping on this all the time, but particularly as it relates to Yuniesky Betancourt... I'm wondering if MLB.com folks still rated his first step and release much higher than the blog folks.
My guess would be that MLB.com readers might rate Ibanez closer to average than we did.

by marc w on Oct 15, 2007 10:41 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

nitpick

Dewan's ratings include throwing skills, which accounts for some of the gap on Raul Ibanez, who does(did) have a decent+ arm for LF.

by Matthew on Oct 15, 2007 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wait wait

Ibanez goes from terrible to above average...because they take throwing into account? I'd think that would hurt him.

Did he really have a decent arm for LF? Can that be true?

by marc w on Oct 15, 2007 1:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

to clarify

we don't have Dewan's ratings for 07 yet (coming soon in the THT annual IIRC), so we're talking about 2006 ratings between UZR and Dewan.

In 2006 (and before), yes, Raul had an above-average arm for a LF. LFers as a group have pretty terrible arms (that's why they're in LF), so it's not hard to stand out there.

Also, it's important to note that while Raul never had good range, his range in 2006 was lightyears better than it was in 2007.

by Matthew on Oct 15, 2007 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ok

but we're not comparing just 2006 v. 2006 - I was referring to Ibanez placement on Dewan's list of the best LFs from 2002-2006 - five full years of data!

And while we don't have Dewan's 2007, it's undoubtedly going to track THT's +/-, which has Ibanez as a below ave. LF. Still, the damage is far less than you'd expect by looking at UZR.

I don't recall many people making the argument that Ibanez had decent/average range in 2006, even if (some) numbers indicate that he WAS sort of rangy. Same with Sexson; we can all agree that he sucked in 2007, but what can we really say about his 2006 or 2005? And was anything saying positive things about his defense back then?

by marc w on Oct 15, 2007 1:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree Ibanez is overrated by Dewan, I'm just pointing out that Raul's utter lack of range this year is probably distorting some of how we think about him in the past. His range used to be just mediocre, his arm was above-average and he played in SafeCo which enhances OF defense. Throw in the fact that most teams put their worst OF defender in LF and it's not surprising the Raul rose in Dewan's system.
THT's RZR shows Ibanez (.813) as the third worst LF in MLB and way way way below average (.853 or so)
We've been pretty sure Sexson's range sucked for a long time. Back in 06 when he got switched from DH to LF, the prevailing opinion was it wasn't a smart idea because we were going from Winn to Raul and his age might encourage a rapid decline (and oh look what happened).

by Matthew on Oct 15, 2007 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

2007 didn't influence our opinion of Ibanez

...and I'll include myself here. Just look at some of the posts on USSM here or here.

Perhaps the magnitude or importance of Ibanez defensive struggles became more clear to us in 2007, but I think you'd have struggled to find someone in 2006 who legitimately thought Raul was an above-average defensive LF.

As for point 2, yeah, and again - no one's arguing about 2007. Or rather, we're only really debating how much it hurt the M's. In perhaps the only case of every PBP and other metric in the world basically agreeing, Ibanez really was a poor defensive LF. Concord!

I don't really understand your point three; yes, we've been pretty sure Sexson's range sucked for a while, but again, THT's RZR had him as average for 2006, and with an RZR that would've given him a virtual tie for 2nd in the AL in 2007. And that's not counting his out of zone plays, which have always been fairly good. So...were we wrong then, or was Sexson doing something that confuses RZR?

by marc w on Oct 15, 2007 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You wouldn't have

found anyone saying Raul was an above-average defensive LF in 2006 because we'd only care about what he was going to do going-forward and that was pretty clear. Raul Ibanez up to/through 2006 was probably around average in aggregate when you factor in both range and throwing.

RZR is just one number. It can and will be off for some things just like every defensive metric out there. Sexson has little to no range.

by Matthew on Oct 15, 2007 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know those stats yet

(New to the baseball stats club) But I would think that they are affected by the ability to catch the ball as well, which, despite how incredibly terrible their range and throwing abilities are, it seems as though when they get their glove on the ball it stays there. There is a reason that Sexson had almost no errors and Ibanez always appears to make amazing grabs on highlight reels (usually because he cannot catch up to it for the easy catch). Any chance that accounts for some of their lack of terribleness in the data?

Jose Vidro (DH - Ms) was arrested today in an Idaho Bathroom for having a wide stance and sucking.

by Librocrat on Oct 16, 2007 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Errors aren't a huge deal

esp. for 1st basemen. It's all about grounders you get to, really - I believe pop-ups are treated separately, but they may be why Sexson has so many out of zone plays.

But no, it's not terribly likely that catching the ball is the reason Ibanez is better/worse than his peers.

by marc w on Oct 16, 2007 11:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mildly surprised by Lopez

Lopez is nothing special for a 2B, and has some problems turning the double play and occasional lapses (such as the infamous missed tag). Still, considering the "ignore the position" rule, I thought Lopez came up a little low on the fielding side and especially low with arm strength. He still has a left-side-of-the-infield arm, but I guess he rarely gets to show it off at 2B. He lacks the speed to extend his range, but fields even the difficult balls within his range well.

I wonder if Lopez would have ranked better if M's fan got to see Adrian Beltre play a few games at 2B (and I generally agree with Beltre's rankings).

by G_ on Oct 15, 2007 11:52 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

HA

Jonny Damon Strength = 0.

by Edgar for Pres on Oct 15, 2007 3:06 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

How did Yuni's arm strength rate so low?

I understand the accuracy rating, but doesn't he have one of the strongest SS arms in baseball?

by Patrick517 on Oct 16, 2007 12:22 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I would say its pretty good

considering the heat he's put on a few throws from 2nd while literally sitting at 2nd base. Speaking of which, Beltre's done that as well, but from 3rd and it's ridiculous. And Troy Tulowitzky has an absolute gun.

by Matthew on Oct 16, 2007 4:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Comment

Note that Mariner fans likely only voted for Mariner players, and Angels fans voted for Angels players, etc. There is hometown bias, but that's true for every team. I simply correct every team an equal amount to eliminate the bias. (Though, if someone wants to argue that there's some team that overly biased beyond the normal bias, that could be possible.)

The guy with the lowest agreement this year is Ryan Freel (Reds).

Betancourt's (relatively) low strength score is likely some carryover from his accuracy, though this didn't affect Juan Uribe or Vlad. (Only Ryan Braun had a bigger gap between arm strength and arm accuracy.)

The true value of this report is as follows:

Seeing a new team or new player: no longer needing to "I hear he's got great hands" from some media p.r. schlub. Before the playoffs, would you have believed Tulo could be this good? Well, Rox fans told us, and now we can see it.
Historical account: half you guys probably never saw Gary Pettis, and you wouldn't believe us even if we told you. I never saw Paul Blair, and I won't believe most of it. In 20 years, people will be able to believe when we talk about Ichiro.
Getting a profile on a player. We can say that YuBet was abysmal with accuracy, we can say that Ichiro has no holes, etc.

by tangotiger on Oct 16, 2007 8:26 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs