Mariner ZIPS projections now up

by DCMariner on Oct 10, 2007 3:02 PM PDT Comment 38 comments

Dan Szymborski over at BaseballThinkFactory has already started posting his player projections for the 2008 season. Thanks to reverse alphabetical ordering, the Mariners are already up.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_zips_projection_seattle_mariners/

"The King Felix projection is pretty disappointing, so I hope ZiPS is wrong. For most teams, that'd be a pretty positive projection for a very young starter, but I think a lot of people, myself included, kinda hoped he'd be fighting for Cy Youngs by now, not suffering occasional arm tweaks and allowing a confusing number of hits."

Head on over and see what you think.

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richie hitting .234?

sounds kinda crazy to me...

I think the king will be better than 13-10, but i suppose i'm an optimist when it comes to the future of our franchise

by thenatural on Oct 10, 2007 3:25 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I dunno...

That sounds right to me- he bounces back, but Safeco and his age hurt so he's still craptastic.

by eponymous coward on Oct 10, 2007 3:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Felix projection

is basically exactly the season he had this year, plus 12 innings.

I like the Jones projection, I'd certainly take that from him next year. And if he inched into the optimistic region, all the better obviously.

by patsfan on Oct 10, 2007 3:35 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Speaking of which

Have the community projections for 2007 been released yet? Curious to see how close we got.

"You guys should be in every major city. This is some heavy shit. This is, like, Lone Ranger heavy, man."

by AZSEAfan on Oct 10, 2007 4:18 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Many comments

First, it has Ibanez as a better fielder than Guillen. Is that true?

Second, I like what is says for Clement. The numbers are good, so it implies that if he starts seeing a few more singles, he'll be a better than decent player.

It projects high for Morse, too. I like him, but I don't think that sits that well with the rest of the LL people.

Baek almost as bad as Horam? Meh. It also shoots Shawn Green a little lower than I'd expect.

And as for Felix - I know he's young, but he needs to be maturing at a faster rate than he is now. By 23, most of the best pitchers in the game today were at their peaks. Luckily he is only 22, but he has also had 2+ years of experience in the majors, while most of them had just started.

Jose Vidro (DH - Ms) was arrested today in an Idaho Bathroom for having a wide stance and sucking.

by CapSea on Oct 10, 2007 4:27 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

That last bit about pitchers and age is not true

by Edgar for Pres on Oct 10, 2007 5:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're right, actually.

I confused my references. Dave Cameron had this post at USSM: http://ussmariner.com/2007/07/23/frustrated-yes/
about what the best pitchers in the game were doing at 21.

And my response was that experience matters too, and at 3 years experience, the pitchers were doing this:
Johan Santana: 108 IP, 2.99 ERA 137 SO, 49 BB, 7 HR
Brandon Webb: 208 IP, 3.54 ERA, 172 SO, 59 BB, 21 HR
Roy Halladay: 67 IP, 10.64 ERA, 42 SO, 44 BB, 14 HR
Jake Peavy: 166.3 IP, 2.27 ERA, 173 SO, 53BB, 13 HR
Ben Sheets: 220 IP, 4.45 ERA, 157 SO, 43 BB, 29 HR
Erik Bedard: 141 IP, 4.00 ERA, 125 SO, 57 BB, 10 HR
CC Sabathia: 197 IP, 3.60 ERA, 141 SO, 66BB, 19 HR
Josh Beckett: 142 IP, 3.04 ERA, 152 SO, 56 BB, 9 HR
John Lackey: 198 IP, 4.67 ERA, 144 SO, 60 BB, 22 HR
John Smoltz: 231 IP, 3.85 ERA, 170 SO, 90 BB, 20 HR

I switched "3rd year experience" with "age 23" in my head (and subsequently in my comment above).

Jose Vidro (DH - Ms) was arrested today in an Idaho Bathroom for having a wide stance and sucking.

by CapSea on Oct 10, 2007 10:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

So...?

Are you saying Felix is underperforming still?

Felix: 190.1 IP, 3.92 ERA, 165 SO, 53 BB, 20 HR.

His like looks basically in line with all those guys.

by Edgar for Pres on Oct 11, 2007 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

I still think he is under-performing. I don't think ERA is a good indicator, in this case. At the very least, ERA+ and WHIP for the players mentioned was generally much better than Felix's this year. As for other stats, I'm at work right now and don't want to look.

Jose Vidro (DH - Ms) was arrested today in an Idaho Bathroom for having a wide stance and sucking.

by CapSea on Oct 11, 2007 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

But like I said

I had switched my points in my head, and when I had written out those statistics, Felix was in the middle of his meltdown so his numbers were much worse (thus they did a better job of proving their point than they do now).

Jose Vidro (DH - Ms) was arrested today in an Idaho Bathroom for having a wide stance and sucking.

by CapSea on Oct 11, 2007 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

You guys know what this calls for?

Yes you do!

Felix is, at age 21, one of the 14 best pitchers in the American League, and is in an excellent position to get better due to his age and natural regression in HR and LD rate.

by Graham on Oct 11, 2007 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I never said there was no hope.

Only referring to the ZIPs projection.

Jose Vidro (DH - Ms) was arrested today in an Idaho Bathroom for having a wide stance and sucking.

by CapSea on Oct 11, 2007 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Shawn Green plays for the Mets

and I don't know what the "LL people" think, but I like the idea of a Broussard/Morse platoon at 1b or DH. Cheap and somewhat productive.

What do I look like, a guy who's not lazy?

by Rollo Tomasi on Oct 10, 2007 5:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm sorry but

neither Morse or Broussard are very good. The mariners haven't had a strong hitting 1B/DH in a long ass time. Its pretty pathetic and now we feel ok sticking converted middle IF in at 1B...

If you want to get a platoon at 1B you can do better. Here are a list of other guys you can throw in at 1B.

Adam Dunn
Russell Branyan
Corey Koskie
Ryan Klesko
Matt Stairs
Eric Hinske
Mike Lamb

by Edgar for Pres on Oct 10, 2007 6:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

They're not great, but...

Broussard: career .806 OPS vs. RHP
Morse: career .858 OPS vs LHP (small sample)

Adam Dunn would be great, but he'd cost $TEXAS
Branyan is about the same as Broussard
Koskie would be good but might still be broken
Klesko is a shell of his former self, not markedly better than Broussard
Stairs is still grossly underrated and would be a great pickup if age doesn't catch up to him
Hinske is about the same as Broussard
Lamb is a product of Houston's home park

Morse could be replaced by a guy like Josh Phelps, I just picked him because he's already on the team, seems to hit lefties well and is megacheap.

Likewise for Broussard (hits righties, won't cost anything), although only two or three of the guys you listed are better than him.

What do I look like, a guy who's not lazy?

by Rollo Tomasi on Oct 10, 2007 6:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also

everyone you listed except Hinske put up their numbers in the JV league.

What do I look like, a guy who's not lazy?

by Rollo Tomasi on Oct 10, 2007 6:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

So if that's the case...

Why isn't Carlos Beltran hitting .500 over there, if the NL is such a crappy league? Or Jacque Jones? Or Alfonso Soriano? Or... well, you get the idea.

by eponymous coward on Oct 10, 2007 8:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

um...

Beltran and Soriano have both put up better numbers in their past two seasons in the NL than they did in the AL. Jones had an off year after rocking the NL in 2006.

Are you actually arguing that the talent level in the NL is the same as the AL?

What do I look like, a guy who's not lazy?

by Rollo Tomasi on Oct 10, 2007 8:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The NL is not as good as the AL

but the difference isn't that big I don't think and is mostly in the powerhouses in the AL (aka Boston, NYY, ect). Just cause a guy plays over there and doesn't win the triple crown doesn't mean he's not great. When you look at players who switch leagues I bet the effect is pretty small.

by Edgar for Pres on Oct 10, 2007 9:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs