Mariner ZIPS projections now up
Dan Szymborski over at BaseballThinkFactory has already started posting his player projections for the 2008 season. Thanks to reverse alphabetical ordering, the Mariners are already up.
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_zips_projection_seattle_mariners/
"The King Felix projection is pretty disappointing, so I hope ZiPS is wrong. For most teams, that'd be a pretty positive projection for a very young starter, but I think a lot of people, myself included, kinda hoped he'd be fighting for Cy Youngs by now, not suffering occasional arm tweaks and allowing a confusing number of hits."
Head on over and see what you think.
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richie hitting .234?
I think the king will be better than 13-10, but i suppose i'm an optimist when it comes to the future of our franchise
I dunno...
by eponymous coward on Oct 10, 2007 3:32 PM PDT up reply actions
The Felix projection
I like the Jones projection, I'd certainly take that from him next year. And if he inched into the optimistic region, all the better obviously.
Speaking of which
Many comments
Second, I like what is says for Clement. The numbers are good, so it implies that if he starts seeing a few more singles, he'll be a better than decent player.
It projects high for Morse, too. I like him, but I don't think that sits that well with the rest of the LL people.
Baek almost as bad as Horam? Meh. It also shoots Shawn Green a little lower than I'd expect.
And as for Felix - I know he's young, but he needs to be maturing at a faster rate than he is now. By 23, most of the best pitchers in the game today were at their peaks. Luckily he is only 22, but he has also had 2+ years of experience in the majors, while most of them had just started.
That last bit about pitchers and age is not true
by Edgar for Pres on Oct 10, 2007 5:44 PM PDT up reply actions
You're right, actually.
about what the best pitchers in the game were doing at 21.
And my response was that experience matters too, and at 3 years experience, the pitchers were doing this:
Johan Santana: 108 IP, 2.99 ERA 137 SO, 49 BB, 7 HR
Brandon Webb: 208 IP, 3.54 ERA, 172 SO, 59 BB, 21 HR
Roy Halladay: 67 IP, 10.64 ERA, 42 SO, 44 BB, 14 HR
Jake Peavy: 166.3 IP, 2.27 ERA, 173 SO, 53BB, 13 HR
Ben Sheets: 220 IP, 4.45 ERA, 157 SO, 43 BB, 29 HR
Erik Bedard: 141 IP, 4.00 ERA, 125 SO, 57 BB, 10 HR
CC Sabathia: 197 IP, 3.60 ERA, 141 SO, 66BB, 19 HR
Josh Beckett: 142 IP, 3.04 ERA, 152 SO, 56 BB, 9 HR
John Lackey: 198 IP, 4.67 ERA, 144 SO, 60 BB, 22 HR
John Smoltz: 231 IP, 3.85 ERA, 170 SO, 90 BB, 20 HR
I switched "3rd year experience" with "age 23" in my head (and subsequently in my comment above).
So...?
Felix: 190.1 IP, 3.92 ERA, 165 SO, 53 BB, 20 HR.
His like looks basically in line with all those guys.
by Edgar for Pres on Oct 11, 2007 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah
But like I said
You guys know what this calls for?

Felix is, at age 21, one of the 14 best pitchers in the American League, and is in an excellent position to get better due to his age and natural regression in HR and LD rate.
by Graham MacAree on Oct 11, 2007 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions
I never said there was no hope.
Shawn Green plays for the Mets
by Rollo Tomasi on Oct 10, 2007 5:46 PM PDT up reply actions
I'm sorry but
If you want to get a platoon at 1B you can do better. Here are a list of other guys you can throw in at 1B.
Adam Dunn
Russell Branyan
Corey Koskie
Ryan Klesko
Matt Stairs
Eric Hinske
Mike Lamb
by Edgar for Pres on Oct 10, 2007 6:22 PM PDT up reply actions
They're not great, but...
Morse: career .858 OPS vs LHP (small sample)
Adam Dunn would be great, but he'd cost $TEXAS
Branyan is about the same as Broussard
Koskie would be good but might still be broken
Klesko is a shell of his former self, not markedly better than Broussard
Stairs is still grossly underrated and would be a great pickup if age doesn't catch up to him
Hinske is about the same as Broussard
Lamb is a product of Houston's home park
Morse could be replaced by a guy like Josh Phelps, I just picked him because he's already on the team, seems to hit lefties well and is megacheap.
Likewise for Broussard (hits righties, won't cost anything), although only two or three of the guys you listed are better than him.
by Rollo Tomasi on Oct 10, 2007 6:40 PM PDT up reply actions
Also
by Rollo Tomasi on Oct 10, 2007 6:42 PM PDT up reply actions
So if that's the case...
by eponymous coward on Oct 10, 2007 8:21 PM PDT up reply actions
um...
Are you actually arguing that the talent level in the NL is the same as the AL?
by Rollo Tomasi on Oct 10, 2007 8:27 PM PDT up reply actions
The NL is not as good as the AL
by Edgar for Pres on Oct 10, 2007 9:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Beltran
His OPS+ with the Mets: 95, 153, 128.
With the Astros in 2004 at age 27: 136. With the Royals in 2004: 136. With the Royals in 2003, age 26: 126.
by rfloh @ Lookout Landing on Oct 11, 2007 6:56 AM PDT up reply actions
What kind of rebuttal is that?
I'm mostly just saying
by Edgar for Pres on Oct 10, 2007 7:14 PM PDT up reply actions
It's an upgrade over last year.
by Rollo Tomasi on Oct 10, 2007 7:20 PM PDT up reply actions
huh?
Richie Sexson pre-2007?
Considering RH hitter in SafeCo, his 05 year especially was strong.
I guess I should have qualified it with somthing
by Edgar for Pres on Oct 10, 2007 7:28 PM PDT up reply actions
and how about
by Edgar for Pres on Oct 10, 2007 7:29 PM PDT up reply actions
Tino Martinez.
by Rollo Tomasi on Oct 10, 2007 7:30 PM PDT up reply actions
when was the last time our minors
JJ
by Rollo Tomasi on Oct 10, 2007 9:47 PM PDT up reply actions
No no no
You read that wrong. Pr = Poor, Fr = Frightening.
by TIF @ Lookout Landing on Oct 10, 2007 7:20 PM PDT up reply actions
That would make phenomenally more sense.
No projection for Kenji?
by GreatDane on Oct 10, 2007 8:23 PM PDT reply actions
what an idiot
by GreatDane on Oct 10, 2007 8:26 PM PDT up reply actions
It's not sorted by position
there should be some sort of punctuation
since Ichiro! is the top, Rene should be:
Rene:(
Rene¡
or something like that

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