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Around SBN: The Animated GIFs Of January

Rodrigo Lopez = Colorado Rockies

Rockies acquired Rodrigo Lopez in exchange for RHP Jim Miller and RHP Jason Burch.

Rockies gave up nothing of value although Lopez could be a disaster in Coors.

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That's interesting news
considering that many from here and USSM had him on their offseason wish lists.
"The Mariners were who we thought they were"

by AZSEAfan on Jan 12, 2007 3:29 PM PST reply actions  

Where has bumblevasi been since the
GM meetings???  In rehab?
I killed a 12 pack just to watch it die...

by Dollar97 on Jan 12, 2007 3:42 PM PST reply actions  

Frack!
Averagish goundball tendancies, slightly below average K-Rate, slightly above average BB-Rates.  Looks to be an about average starting pitcher.  Sure he's had some balooned ERA's the last couple years, but he'd probably been cheaper than Ramirez, and even if he wasn't, his peripherals say he's a better, possibly much better pitcher.  If we had decent outfield defense (ie, did NOT trade Snelling for Vidro, and moved Ibanez to his right position, DH), and picked him up, I wouldn't have be surprised to see a 4.4-4.5 ERA at Safeco field, possibly lower.  

by chrisisasavage on Jan 12, 2007 5:10 PM PST reply actions  

I mean damned
15.2% HR/F, 66.6 LOB%.  Sure he might get rocked at Coors, but if the new found park factors hold, maybe not.  I wonder if Bavasi even inquired.

by chrisisasavage on Jan 12, 2007 5:11 PM PST up reply actions  

too bad
Rodrigo Lopez is someone DC had marked out as having good peripherals but performing poorly. I think he suffered from a very low strand rate and some bad luck with homeruns and so forth.

I dunno, but he sounds to me a lot like the new Royals ace starter. I understand that sometimes pitchers just need a new pitching coach, or a new environment (I can't blame anyone for doing poorly in Baltimore).

But I don't think my fandom (fanhood?) can survive another Gilbert, and knowing what Lopez' ceiling is, while having to watch the worst case scenario unfold start after start, is likely to make me go gray before my time. I'd rather have guys like Batista, who you can't expect too much from, be our 'rehab project' starters.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 12, 2007 6:46 PM PST reply actions  

on rereading this post
I think I ought to mention that I don't see him ever really living up to his potential.

I don't have a whole lot of rational reasoning behind this assumption, other than that he's 31, has had a steadily climbing LD% and opponent slugging (400 to 450 to 500 - yikes!), and a steadily dropping GB% and IF/F% (a controllable skill, I'm told) over the last three years. At that age, the pitchers who find a way to reverse those trends are few and far between, unless we're talking a move to the bullpen.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 12, 2007 6:59 PM PST up reply actions  

IF/F
You need to regress it very heavily toward the mean.  

by chrisisasavage on Jan 12, 2007 8:23 PM PST up reply actions  

IF/F
Generally considered nonrepeatable.

by Graham MacAree on Jan 13, 2007 6:55 AM PST up reply actions  

well, it's like 25% skill, 75% luck
that's why you have to regress it so much

by Matthew on Jan 13, 2007 7:23 AM PST up reply actions  

Same difference
And yes, I know, I shouldn't misuse stats terms like that.

by Graham MacAree on Jan 13, 2007 7:34 AM PST up reply actions  

Over a full season
75% is more-or-less dead-on to how far you need to regress to the mean for a starting pitcher.

by chrisisasavage on Jan 13, 2007 7:49 AM PST up reply actions  

IF/F
is one of those noise stats, like HR/F.  There's definately a skill/repeatability component to it (Zito, Santana, Wakefield), but the year to year numbers are full of noise.

by chrisisasavage on Jan 13, 2007 8:18 AM PST up reply actions  

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