Meche's FIP and xFIP, before today:
His ERA, as of today:
Basically, he's performing about where he should be.
More past the fold...
And for additional perspective:
In other words, Meche (4.31 ERA), is a decent 3-4 (if you figure the 3rd or 4th best starting pitcher in your organization on a decent team is going to be an average pitcher, unless you're the 1971 Orioles). We won 91, 116, 93 and 93 games with guys like John Halama, Paul Abbott and Ryan Franklin filling out the back of the Mariner rotation- and Meche's peripherals are clearly better than those guys.
This doesn't mean I want him for $Texas over a 5 year deal- hell, if someone else with comparable advanced peripheral stats and a good health record is cheaper, sign him, offer Meche arbitration, let Pat Gillick sign him to $Texas and take the draft pick to the bank. But I wouldn't be sobbing bitter tears if we got Meche for 5 million in 2006 and a $6.5 million vesting option at 180 IP, as long as it's clear that Meche is "rotation filler", until some cheaper options show up. At this point, we need to sign one top-line P, one filler P, and we can let the kids and spring training NRIs fight it out for 5.
And for additional bonus perspective:
FIP/xFIP/K per G/BB per G
Pitcher A: 4.85/5.33/6.2/3.9 (AL pitcher)
Pitcher B: 3.82/4.54/7.8/3.4 (note: NL pitcher, add some BB and drop some Ks if they have to face 9 hitters in a lineup)
Care to guess who A and B are?