Lookout Landing: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
New Blog: RSL Soapbox for Real Salt Lake Fans!

Cups Of Coffee For Everyone

We've seen a lot of Mariners - 13 in all - make their Major League debuts this season. And several of them have come in the last few days, with Oswaldo Navarro, Travis Chick, Francisco Cruceta, Cesar Jimenez, and Jon Huber all finding themselves quickly thrust into action after getting September promotions. When you have a team that loses this often, rookies are usually one of the only things that keep you paying attention, and this year's crop hasn't disappointed, with a couple guys standing out as potential contributors in 2007.

The one I want to talk about today, though, is a little further off, but easily one of the most interesting of the bunch. Ryan Feierabend made his debut this afternoon less than a month after his 21st birthday. Coming to Seattle straight out of AA, he retired Vernon Wells on the first pitch of his Major League career and went on to throw two shutout innings, with the only baserunner reaching on an error by TJ Bohn (who will not get a special article like this, on account of he's not very good). For a guy who must've been suffocating in butterflies, Feierabend looked great in striking out a pair of hitters and inducing another into a double play. His first game couldn't possibly have gone any better.

The background on Feierabend is this - a Mattox pick out of high school in the 2003 draft (third round, reasonably pricey), Feierabend was only a couple miles per hour away from being lumped in with that collection of soft-tossing lefties that the organization only recently stopped accumulating. His fastball hit the upper-80s and his frame suggested there was still more to come, and already equipped with a good changeup at the tender age of 18, there was reason to believe that Feierabend might actually have a future in the business.

His performance didn't live up to the buzz, though, and after his first full season in professional baseball he looked like the kind of guy who tops out in AA. He threw strikes, but he got too much of the plate, and his stuff wasn't even good enough to miss bats in the Midwest League. Age was still on his side, but that was it, really - Feierabend became more of an afterthought than anything else.

Then something clicked. With a honed changeup, a few extra miles on his fastball, and a developing curve to give him a weapon against lefties, Feierabend started to pitch up to his draft slot in 2005, improving his strikeout rate by more than 20% despite getting promoted to a higher level. Encouraged by his progress, the Mariners bumped him again this past summer, giving the 20 year old a full season of AA experience.

Safe to say it worked out pretty well. Despite being young for AA, Feierabend's walk and strikeout rates were both better than the league average, and he was able to pitch effectively against hitters on both sides of the plate. In so doing, he established himself as the most polished starting pitching prospect in the organization, ahead of Cruceta (who struggles to throw strikes) and Brandon Morrow (who hasn't pitched enough). He's been a bright spot in a system that badly needed some guys in the upper levels to step up, and he's planted himself firmly on the radar.

Feierabend doesn't have the tools to become a front-of-the-rotation starter, but I think it's important to point out that a guy doesn't need to have ace potential to be worthy of enthusiasm and anticipation. As is the case with pretty much anyone who throws with his left hand, Feierabend has gotten tagged with the "intelligent" and "crafty" labels, but in this case they're actually deserved, as he's a much smarter pitcher now than he was when he was drafted (which you'd expect for a teenager coming straight out of high school). He also has the stuff to give him a little (althougn not very much) wiggle room, as his 90+ fastball is legitimately hard enough to miss bats, and his dual offspeed stuff lets him pitch differently to left- and right-handed hitters without having to sacrifice much in the way of effectiveness. Although he did pitch better against lefties this year, the platoon split was small, which makes sense considering the changeup is probably Feierabend's best offering.

It's also worth noting that his debut today allowed me to take a look at his delivery, and I didn't see any glaring problems. He overthrew his fastball a few times, which was evident in his follow-through, but I wouldn't expect anything different of a guy facing Major League hitters for the first time in his life, so I don't think it's that big of a deal. He keeps his head straight, his glove in good position, and his elbow locked to his hips, all of which are good and somewhat remarkable for a guy that young. He also throws every pitch with a consistent release behind the backs of left-handed hitters, which can make the lateral motion of his curveball tough to pick up. There's nothing flashy about Feierabend's delivery - it's just solid and boring, which I find to be a breath of fresh air after seeing some of the other deliveries in the organization.

Thanks to his performance, Feierabend has pretty much fast-tracked himself. Before you let yourself get too excited, though, there are a few concerns. For one, he's always been, and remains to this day, a fairly extreme flyball pitcher. Only 37.9% of his balls in play stayed on the ground, as opposed to a 45.8% league average. He misses enough bats to limit the damage, but better hitters are still going to be able to take advantage of this by launching a few more balls over the fence. Feierabend also benefited considerably from San Antonio's Woolf Stadium, which is one of the most pitcher-friendly environments on the planet. His OPS against was .618 at home and .913 on the road, and while he's not nearly as bad as the latter, he's also not quite as good as the former. The entire Mariner system is comprised of pitcher's parks, and while it makes some sense given where the big league club plays its home games, it can mislead you about the quality of the young arms in the organization. Finally, there's the matter of Feierabend's performance when men on base - he got beat up this year when he had to worry about baserunners, which could be a fluke, but could also be an indication of something he needs to work on (for example, pitching from the stretch, which he did this afternoon).

Ryan Feierabend has a lot more development ahead of him before he's ready for a full-time job in the big leagues, but don't let that get you down. He'll spend 2007 in Tacoma fine-tuning his command and improving his situational pitching, earning himself another August/September promotion and a shot at a rotation slot in 2008 (possibly sooner if he just blows people away next year). Because his repertoire is still fairly limited, he carries a moderate risk of never quite panning out, but with his age, delivery, and success in AA this summer, he's one of the safer bets in the system. His upside is that of a dependable #3 in the mold of a Randy Wolf or Jarrod Washburn's good years, and while I may be blinded by the awfulness of the Mariners' current rotation, I think that's something worth looking forward to.

It's time people start forgetting about the Clint Nageottes and Travis Blackleys of yesteryear and start focusing on the newer, more promising arms in the organization. Ryan Feierabend's currently leading that pack of young talent, and if you still aren't quite sure why that is, give it a year. You'll get it.

0 recs  |  Comment 37 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Speaking of Nags
I wouldn't be surprised if he's DFA'd in the offseason to make room on the 40 man.
Fire Mike Hargrove!

by Goose on Sep 13, 2006 9:54 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I'd be shocked if he wasn't
I'd say the DFA order probably goes

Nageotte
Dobbs
Cortez
Foppert
Bazardo

by I'm NOT Corco on Sep 13, 2006 10:51 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bazardo?
Really?
Willie Bloomquist and Mike Hargrove suck

by Mariner John on Sep 14, 2006 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Other DFA candidates
Huber and Green might go before the younger guys.  With their age and lack of upside, neither is a prospect, the M's have plenty of bullpen depth, and even if the M's can't resign them to minor league deals, there are plenty of other AAAA relievers who will be minor league free agents this offseason.  

Bohn and Livingston are also candidates because, like Dobbs last year, the M's have a decent chance of retaining them if they are removed from the 40-man roster.  With their underwhelming skill sets, they probably would not be in high demand for a waiver claim, and if they clear waivers, they would have to accept an assignment to the minor leagues.

by G_ on Sep 14, 2006 9:25 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

that's true
I bet you're right about Green/Huber/Bohn/Livingston. I'd say Bazardo is probably after all of those 4.

But Renee Cortez is 24 and ain't getting any younger.

by I'm NOT Corco on Sep 14, 2006 10:09 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Can they please DFA
Rivera?!!? PLEASE??!!
"I'VE GOT BLISTERS ON ME FINGERS!!"
--Stewie Griffin AND Josh Beckett

by Phildopip on Sep 14, 2006 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cortez
Corco, oh yeah, he's definitely somewhere on the list.  That said, 24 is really not that old for a pitcher in AAA (he does not turn 24 until December), and he might get the benefit of the doubt regarding his 2006 performance because he was injured for much of the year.  Someone in the organization clearly likes him (or else he would not have been protected last year), but the same considerations that put Bohn and Livingston on the bubble should apply to him as well.  

by G_ on Sep 14, 2006 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Nifty
Saying that he has a good chance to turn into Jarrod Washburn isn't really damning with faint praise, either.  A cost-controlled Jarrod Washburn is a wonderful thing.

by NBarnes on Sep 14, 2006 2:09 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

I agree
Washed-up at leauge minimum is good

by chrisisasavage on Sep 14, 2006 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pick off move
Doesn't Feierabend have one of the best pickoff moves in the minors?  

I remember looking at his stats, and noting that he has been very hittable.  Then, someone mentioned that he picks off about a baserunner a game or something ludicrous like that.  I would imagine that that is the type of talent that will transfer well to the big leagues.  

Speaking of his troubling hit rates, he lowered his H/IP a lot between 2005 and 2006.  Considering that he did this while making the jump from A to AA, that has to bode well for his future.  

by Jerry on Sep 14, 2006 12:31 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah.
By all reports, his pickoff move is one of the best in the world. He'll catch a few guys, he'll completely shut down the running game, and he'll post high LOB%'s as a result.

For some reason this slipped my mind when I was writing the post.

by Jeff on Sep 14, 2006 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

repeatable skill
That is a nice skill to have, and one that doesn't often get that much attention.  

We always talk about LOB% as totally random variation.  But erasing a baserunner on a regular basis, and keeping other guys from stealing a base or getting a great jump, is definitely a repeatable skill.  

It is also one that is likely to serve him just as well in the big leagues.  

by Jerry on Sep 14, 2006 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Back to Wash..
If LOB%'s such a repeatable skill, then why did Washburn's fall off quite a bit this year?  I suppose last year, you could say, was anomalous and fluky, as he's back to about his career average....

But, yeah, I think this is a valid point.  In general terms, there are guys that can control their LOB% -- and they appear to generally be left handed.  Makes sense, as they're actually facing the runner at first when they're pitching the ball...

Free George Sherrill. And Dan Rohn.

by PositivePaul on Sep 14, 2006 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well
LOB% depends on more than just controlling the running game. A much bigger factor is the quality of the pitcher, and since Washburn isn't very good, his LOB% was due for a regression.

It would be even lower, though, if he didn't have such a good pickoff move.

by Jeff on Sep 14, 2006 1:33 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

LOB is not a fluke per se
but pitchers can post flukey LOB years. It's best to look at deviation from career average in this respect. There's no league wide regression mark for LOB that can be applied, because, by nature, the better the pitcher is, the higher his strand rate will be. Also, as Ks increase for a pitcher, his strand rate will rise. Look at Johan for example, his LOB% is constantly around 80%, it would be wrong to assume that it will regress back next year. However Washburn, who has a semi-established career norm of around 70% as a strand rate, posted one above 80% last year. THAT was due for regression, which it did.

by Matthew on Sep 14, 2006 1:34 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not what I said
I never said that LOB is a reapatable skill.  In most cases, it isn't.  

But keeping people close to the base, and erasing baserunners through pickoffs, will help lower the amount of runs that you allow.  And a great pickoff move is a repeatable skill.  

by Jerry on Sep 14, 2006 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cool.
I think I get it now...
Free George Sherrill. And Dan Rohn.

by PositivePaul on Sep 14, 2006 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed.
The run value of a stolen base is currently set at .22 per successful attempt. By shutting down the running game, Feierabend could "save" as many as 4-5 runs per season directly by virtue of his pickoff move alone.

There's a lot to like about the guy. He may not be flashy or mind-blowing, but he's got a lot of things going for him, and for that reason he's the best pitching prospect in the system.

by Jeff on Sep 14, 2006 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

that would probably all come in the form of
pickoffs, as actually shutting down the running game to the tune of stopping the opposing team from EVER attempting to steal, isn't actually worth much, if it's worth anything at all. In fact, there's some evidence to suggest that it's detrimental, since all the whole, managers tend to abuse the stolen base.

by Matthew on Sep 14, 2006 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: that would probably all come in the form of
Results of a little plug and play:

Taking data from everyone who's thrown at least one pitch this season, the average pitcher "loses" roughly one run because of SB attempts per 180 innings (SB run value of -.22, CS run value of .38).

I don't feel like breaking it down by handedness to see where it comes out for righties and lefties, but I'm skeptical that managerial abuse of the SB attempt makes shutting down the running game detrimental. It might be detrimental for guys who're facing the hit-and-run happy Mariners, but other than that, I'm not seeing it.

It'll be interesting to see how many pick-offs Feierabend averages per season. Mark Buehrle's got 24 over the past three seasons, and Chris Capuano has 18 over the past two, so those might be some decent comps.  

by Jeff on Sep 14, 2006 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I don't know where the .22 and .38 figures come
from, but I do know that in the situational breakdown I did on the running game last year for ESPN, the league, as a whole, came out on the wrong side of run expectancy when it comes to success vs. failures in the running game.

Now, of course, this doesn't apply to every pitcher, every team, every situation, nor even every year (it was a really small number, so some years it could certainly fluctuate), but the overall point holds, that, on a macro level, the running game just doesn't make much impact.

That being said, pickoffs are a totally different beast, and ARE a very useful skill to have.

by Matthew on Sep 14, 2006 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Can you clarify that?
You're saying that the runs lost by outs on the basepaths are roughly equivalent to the runs gained overall, right?

by Graham on Sep 14, 2006 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

over the long run, and over the league as a whole
yes, that's what the numbers seem to indicate.

by Matthew on Sep 14, 2006 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Really?
So much for the "aggressive" baserunning strategy....

by rtang on Sep 14, 2006 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Any idea what happens individually?
I'm not sure that league-wide studies are appropriate for evaluating pitchers by themselves.

by Graham on Sep 14, 2006 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

They wouldn't be, but that wasn't the purpose
I was looking at catchers actually, and trying to quantify just how much measureable (that is, excluding CERA) impact they could have on defense.

The answer? Not much. +/- 5 runs from average and there's almost no consistancy one year to the next.

But anyways, my gut feeling is that breaking it down by pitcher wouldn't change much. For whatever reason, the running game seems to be run as a very free market if you will. Profits have been almost completely driven out. The better the catcher/pitcher combo are at throwing runners out, the less often runners try to take off, but the ones that DO attempt to steal are usually the better/faster runner and so they are more likely to succeed, driving the "runs saved" by pitcher/catcher down.

The worse a pitcher/catcher is, the more often runners try to steal, but that means that worse/slower runners also try to steal at an increased rate, and they'll get thrown out a much high proportion, thereby raising the "runs saved" of the pitcher/catcher because the net value of throwing a runner out is roughly equiv to 2 successful attempts. (varying on the situation of both the game, and the runner/outs situation on the basepaths).

by Matthew on Sep 14, 2006 4:42 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wow
Best in the system?  

That is pretty bold.  

I guess that if you are heavily influenced by polish, that could be true.  

But Brandon Morrow, Chris Tillman, and Anthony Butler all have MUCH more upside.  

Morrow may not be as far along, but you can't overlook how dominant he was in the Pac-10 this year.  If he wasn't handled super conservatively, we wouldn't be having this conversation at all.  

Morrow could easily be in AA by next year.  While he is a bit raw for a college guy, I wouldn't call him a project.  

I think that Morrow is the #1 starter in the system, and it isn't particularly close.  

by Jerry on Sep 14, 2006 1:56 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Wow
Well, first of all, I don't buy that Tillman and Butler have more upside that Feierabend. I'm not sure where that's coming from. And secondly, where Feierabend has proven himself worthy at AA, the other two haven't established any kind of professional track record. Their hype is based almost entirely on projection, whereas Feierabend has the performance to go along with it.

As for Morrow, I think it's probably more of a toss-up than I made it sound like. He certainly has a higher ceiling than Feierabend, but because he ended the year with some pain and still hasn't pitched against half-decent competition, I just can't give him the edge. Things could look considerably different a year from now, but as of this writing, I'm standing by Feierabend as the #1 arm in the system.

by Jeff on Sep 14, 2006 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Upside is important
Clearly, Feierabend is closer.  But the guy hasn't exactly been dominant at any level.  I know that he has been pushed along quite aggressively, but he has been hit hard at most stops.  He was better this year, but the jury is still out on him.  

The difference between Feierabend and the others is stuff.  Butler already throws quite a bit harder than him, and has a plus curve as well.  He is also enormous and projectable.  Tillman throws gas and has a great curve.  Both of these guys have huge upside.  Obvioulsy, they have a long way to go.  But they are both very projectable.  

Morrow has just as much upside, but he also has a great track record in a very good college division.  

Don't get me wrong.  I am not bagging on Feierabend.  He could end up being a good cheap starter, and perhaps a long-term part of the rotation.  But guys like him seem to get eaten up often.  As you said, there isn't that much separating him from the Bobby Livingstons of the system.  Livingston was much better in AA last year than Feierabend was this year, although he was about 2 years older.  Clearly, Feierabend has more going for him.  His stuff is better, and he is younger relative to the levels he has been pitching at.  But I big league hitters might give him a real problem.

You could be right though.  Given the volatility of pitchers, the fact that Feierabend has gotten as far as he has gives him an edge over Tillman and Butler.  But those two have huge upside, especially Tillman.  

A lot of this is apples and oranges.  Tillman and Butler both have so far to go, comparing them to a guy like Feierabend is tough.  Personally, I like upside.  But perhaps I have just been jaded by all the soft-tossing-lefties that have come through the system lately.  

The one guy that we aren't mentioning is Justin Thomas.  While he is still a year older than Feierabend, it seems like they have similar repertoires.  Thomas did pretty well between low and high A this year, with really good peripheral stats.  He is another guy who could be a good back of the rotation guy.  

Your argument is certainly defendable.  But I would rank those guys like:

Morrow
Feierabend
Butler
Tillman
Thomas

In my opinion, there is a pretty big gap between Morrow and Feierabend, and the other three are pretty debatable.  

by Jerry on Sep 14, 2006 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'll say this:
Everybody has their own preferred method of valuing young prospects. I lean more to the safety/track record side, and you lean more to the upside/projectability side. There's nothing wrong with either of them, but when there are disagreements between the two, there's really no way to compromise. I think that's what we're getting into re: Feierabend/Morrow/Tillman/Butler.

As far as Justin Thomas goes, I think he's a guy we could see packaged in a deal this winter. The Mariners need a lot of help that they won't be able to get through free agency alone, so they'll have to make some trades, and after teams ask for Feierabend and get denied, Thomas will be next on the list. He doesn't have a ton of value yet, but he's almost certainly enough to bring over some Major League help.

by Jeff on Sep 14, 2006 4:35 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Trades
Yeah, I wouldn't be that suprised to see him trade either.  

Depending on what they are getting back, he could be a useful trade chip.  

But I would say the same thing about Feierabend.  

Really, the M's untouchable list should be Clement and Jones.  The recent draftees aren't eligable, so that is a moot point.  But all the rest of the guys in the system are definitely movable for the right type of trade.  

by Jerry on Sep 14, 2006 5:06 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dave over at USSM got a bit miffed...
when I compared Feierabend to Washburn. Thinks his ceiling is higher than that based on minor league numbers.

I dunno, man... I'd take 75 career wins and a 4 ERA by the time he's 30 from Feierabend any day of the week. And Washburn had a touch more fastball in his 20's than he does now, so stylistically, I think it's a decent comparison.

by eponymous coward on Sep 14, 2006 4:14 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Uh huh.
I don't know in which thread you made that comparison so I can't speak to what Dave was talking about, but Jarrod Washburn was a decent pitcher back in the day when he threw a little harder.

I will say, though, that Feierabend should put up consistently higher strikeout rates than Washburn ever did, making him the better bet both in terms of peak and longevity. I think he's got a little more Randy Wolf in him (preferably without the injury trouble).

by Jeff on Sep 14, 2006 4:28 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wolf
Speaking of which...

What do you think of Wolf?

I am thinking that he could be a really interesting guy to take a look at.  The injuries should keep his price down and his contract short.  When he was healthy, he was damn good.  And the prognosis on his type of injury is usually pretty good.  

I haven't done a ton of research on the specifics of his struggles going back to 2004, but barring any scary information that I don't know about, I think that he could be a really nice free agent acquisition.  

What do you think?  

by Jerry on Sep 14, 2006 5:04 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Re: Wolf
I'd definitely think about it, and probably give it a shot provided his demands are low enough. a $1m/1yr base with innings incentives and a 2008 option would be fine with me.

by Jeff on Sep 14, 2006 5:15 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

For what it's worth....
Feierabend is also a very nice guy.  Not that that matters much in his ability to pitch a baseball but anyone that has talked to him or been around him can see that.  I have had the pleasure of doing both and wish him success where ever he ends up.  I know that he works hard and actually cares unlike some players that I know.  (and his pickoff move is awesome!)

by Marinersfaninaz on Sep 14, 2006 10:46 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

By reading a game thread of your own volition you agree to accept all liability for any and all damage done to your delicate sensibilities.
Start posting about the Mariners »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Max_small
FootbaLL IV (Nov 21st)
Small
The Sabermetrics of Cats

Recent FanPosts

Small
WAR gains major exposure
Laughing_man_elmex_small
AFL Championship game thread
Smell-the-glove_small
OFFTOP 11/19 - The Hand of Fraud
Small
Tony Blengino interview on 710 AM ESPN Seattle's Hot Stove League
Ichirocameron_small
OTFPOTD 11/16: Recipes Edition
Small
Lookout Landing as a communtiy
Small
Royals determined to unload Callaspo...
Ichiro_small
Ackley and Triunfel on MLB TV right now

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >


Sexy People

1_small Graham

Small Matthew

Small Jeff