My guess: Matt Clement for Joel + Eddie

by manyoso on Apr 24, 2006 1:26 PM PDT

My guess as to what is going down:

This will be a Red Sox/Mariners trade.

Going to Boston: Eddie Guardado and Joel Pineiro.

Coming to Seattle: Matt Clement. Perhaps others.

The reasoning: Matt Clement has continued to struggle with his location while his K rate has never recovered from what it was in the NL. The Red Sox are looking for a way to start Papelbon in lieu of Wells/DiNardo, but they can not do that without finding another option for closer besides Foulke. Hence they get Eddie.

This allows Boston to start Pineiro and Papelbon instead of Clement and DiNardo.

The M's get rid of Eddie allowing either Putz or Raffy to take over as closer and seemingly sell Piniero at his high water mark. Perhaps other players are involved, but I'll bet this is the gist of the trade.

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Perhaps...

But, one important thing (and I get hung up on this all the time) -- Boston is one of the teams on Eddie's no-trade clause.

Go M's! Mariners Morsels (aka Free George Sherrill).

by PositivePaul on Apr 24, 2006 1:28 PM PDT reply actions

This would be sweet

but the Sox do not seem to be in a rush to get Papelbon into the rotation.

by david h on Apr 24, 2006 1:31 PM PDT reply actions

I don't know

They are very much in need of a solution for the #5 spot. Wells is headed for retirement and Clemens signing is a pipe dream. Papelbon is the obvious guy, but he has been dream as closer. Which makes you wonder, should they "waste" that kind of an arm as closer when they need another starter. I really think Papelbon was always intended to start and contrary to his public statements, I think he will become impatient with the closer role before too long. He is approaching rock star status here in Boston as it is. What with his new mohawk it is like "Damon who?"

by manyoso on Apr 24, 2006 1:35 PM PDT up reply actions

Do you think

the Red Sox want Eddie after watching him give up the game-winning HR in Fenway? Considering what they went through with Foulke last year, I can't believe they would want another shaky reliever.

by jtopps on Apr 24, 2006 1:44 PM PDT reply actions

Its going to be tough to trade Eddie

and get anything in return. He's damaged good because of the bum shoulder. He doesn't throw fast. He doesn't throw slow. This year he has consistantly thrown BP and has gotten lucky for the most part when he does get an out. When I watch him succeed, I'm always surprised. I just don't think he'll have much value to a team. I could maybe see him going to Boston but I don't see him in a deal with Pineiro.

by Edgar for Pres on Apr 24, 2006 2:01 PM PDT up reply actions

Agree

Teams don't trade for guys they hit walk-off home runs off of.

by Gomez on Apr 24, 2006 2:40 PM PDT up reply actions

Do you guys really want Clement

First off, is he better than Pineiro. He's older and more expensive than Joel. I'm pretty sure that Clement has seen his best days. The big thing that got this trade talk going was Borchard getting DFA'd. You've got to throw him in any trade I think. Boston doesn't need another OF. I'm not sure about Boston. They have starting pitching so I don't think they are the team for Joel. The only thing in this trade for us is that we can move some reliever to the closer role.

I think we could see Joel+Borchard going to a team for a couple good pitching prospects. I could see a possible deal with the Blue Jays where they would be willing to sell tomorrow for today since Burnett is hurt and they feel they have a shot of contending with all their offseason moves. The Reds and Angels have also had some pitching injuries and might be willing to dish out some decent prospects for Pineiro. I think the M's are in a good position to trade Pineiro because they have until the trade deadline to find the right deal. If they do make a deal and it looks like they might, it had better be a sweet deal for us.

by Edgar for Pres on Apr 24, 2006 1:56 PM PDT reply actions

Tony Womack was just DFA'd by the Reds

It would be really nice to have faith in your GM not to make stupid moves, but sadly, I don't have that recently.

by jtopps on Apr 24, 2006 2:15 PM PDT reply actions

thats been in the works for a while, but

A platoon for WFB's backup extroardinaire role! He can play the infield! He can play the outfield! He can hits, to complement Willie! He can swipe a bag! And he might actually be worse at the plate than WFB!

by david h on Apr 24, 2006 2:27 PM PDT up reply actions

"hits left-handed"

not "can hits." Oops.

by david h on Apr 24, 2006 2:29 PM PDT up reply actions

this might be our saving grace

the Mariners are pretty stocked on the bench in terms of lefties. If they pick up Womack, the only RH off the bench are Willie and Rivera...yikes.

by jtopps on Apr 24, 2006 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions

Uh oh

The Reds are looking like a good target, especially with Eric Milton just going on the DL and they having the slowest outfield ever. Pineiro/Borchard for Womack and a prospect?

That's a shitty trade but it looks plausible.

by Gomez on Apr 24, 2006 2:42 PM PDT up reply actions

You've GOT to be kidding me.

Anyone who trades a decent starting pitcher for a guy who's DFA'ed should be fired.

by eponymous coward on Apr 24, 2006 3:01 PM PDT up reply actions

Well, yes

Which is why I worry the M's will do it. It just seems right up the M's front office's alley.

by Gomez on Apr 24, 2006 3:53 PM PDT up reply actions

If it makes it any better

think of it like this. We'd be getting Womack for Borchard who we got for Thorton. Basically all useless players. Borchard is the best of the three but we've got a fair amount of decent/great OF guys in the minors who would fill Borchard's and Lawton's role next year.

Just to make sure everyone understands. This is a rationalization for possible actions. Womack is garbage and that is why the Reds DFA'd him.

Oh yeah, just to throw this out there: Pineiro and Borchard to Reds for Griffey, Womack, and good prospect + $ for Griffey's contract. Won't happen but fun to talk about.

by Edgar for Pres on Apr 24, 2006 4:21 PM PDT up reply actions

I actually wouldn't doubt that

Mariners need something to get the fans in it. Griffey would do that. Besides he is always hurt for the reds and they need another outfielder when he is on the DL and pitching help. Plus we could DH Griffey.

I may dreaming but how awesome would that be

by Scruffy Lefty on Apr 24, 2006 4:56 PM PDT up reply actions

Um, bad news

Injury List:

K. Griffey Jr. CF Apr 13, 2006 15-day Strained biceps tendon in right knee

by Gomez on Apr 24, 2006 5:17 PM PDT up reply actions

I knew he was on the DL

but that just makes it seem more likely. I pretty sure he is eligable to come off so they could activate him and trade him even though he is actually hurt

by Scruffy Lefty on Apr 24, 2006 5:50 PM PDT up reply actions

Reds acquired OF Cody Ross from LAD earlier today

So hopefully Seattle aren't about to gain a second Freakin' Womack. Even if he is a "World Champion".

by Alex B on Apr 24, 2006 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions

I'd be skeptical...

...that a team with pennant, much less World Series, aspirations would want to go after Eddie Guardado and his arm, which at this point is being held to his body by half a tendon and a paper clip.

Boston's got Papelbon, and Foulke's started to look more like himself lately - they probably won't look twice at Guardado. Jo-el may have some appeal to them, but I'd be quite surprised if Eddie went to Boston...

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Apr 24, 2006 2:37 PM PDT reply actions

Ok I got it now

the front office is trying to trick Joel into signing a cheap contract. They say, "You like it here, right? Well we aren't going to resign you in arbitration after this year because you will be too expensive and we are planning to trade you and Borchard (the reason they DFA'd him was for this bluff) to __ (insert a POS team like the Reds to scare the crap out of him). We are giving you a chance to sign a resonable contract with us (insert pen + 2yr/12mil contract here)." If he doesn't fall for it then we dish him off, but if he signs then its GM gold and Bavasi might keep his job.

by Edgar for Pres on Apr 24, 2006 2:39 PM PDT reply actions

If you wanna scare him

"We're sending you to the Royals for Shane Costa and a prospect unless you sign."

It's like the Fear of God: the Fear of Playing For The Royals.

by Gomez on Apr 24, 2006 2:45 PM PDT up reply actions

C'mon guys

You may dislike Bavasi, but not even his most ardent haters can honestly think that he'd deal Pineiro for Womack.

If Pineiro goes to the Reds it's going to involve Kearns or Freel.

by PLU Tim on Apr 24, 2006 3:50 PM PDT reply actions

No not straight up

But it wouldn't surprise me to see him deal Pineiro if it meant he was also getting prospects back.

That said, I agree with you. Bavasi needs instant returns on any trade he makes right now since the management is probably panicking.

by jtopps on Apr 24, 2006 3:55 PM PDT up reply actions

Junkballing #4/5 starter for an OF with pop

Hmm... maybe. Does Pineiro have that much value to the Reds? I sincerely hope so.

by Gomez on Apr 24, 2006 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions

Esp.

if the Reds finally appreciate Ryan Freel, and believe in Brandon Phillips' hot start, then they would be able to move Kearns to open a permanent spot for Freel.

by david h on Apr 24, 2006 4:09 PM PDT up reply actions

Just to repeat

if the reds are involved there might be a trade that involves Womack and Pineiro. This does not mean we are trading Pineiro for Womack. I'm sure there would be a healthy package of players.

Also, once again, Womack sucks.

by Edgar for Pres on Apr 24, 2006 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions

re: my comments

Don't think for a second that I find any value in Womack in this point. To me, he's this year's Bret Boone 2005. He hasn't just fallen off the wagon, he's been run over by everyone behind it.

by Gomez on Apr 24, 2006 5:18 PM PDT up reply actions

Was Tony Womack ever a good player?

Looking back at his stats it's hard to believe that he has had such a long career, and as a starter to boot.

by Alex B on Apr 25, 2006 3:38 AM PDT up reply actions

Think about this

His career year with the Cardinals was .307/.349/.385

Yeah thats right a .385 slugging percentage.

We all should have a bit of Willie Bloomquist in us. ~Mike Hargrove

by Goose on Apr 25, 2006 3:46 AM PDT up reply actions

Pathetic stuff, no doubt about it

But he nonetheless managed to hold down a ML starting job for 9 years, and probably made a fortune doing so. All along the way, someone has made the decision that he is the best man for the job, and paid/played him accordingly.

As a Brit who's only been following baseball since 2001, I don't have a great knowledge of how "baseball thinking" has evolved over the years. But I'm always amazed that in a sport that lends itself so naturally to quantitative analysis, talent-evaluation at the manager/GM-level is so frequently based on anything but the numbers. Tony Womack becomes part of the MLB furniture on the back of an inexplicable All-Star call-up whereas the Justin Leones of this world get typecast as AAAA-players because "all" they have done is put up consistently good performance in the minors.

I realise that this is not a new debate for the good people of LL but I guess I'm just expressing my frustration at the Mariners' perpetual lack of direction! :-)

Ta.

by Alex B on Apr 25, 2006 5:38 AM PDT up reply actions

RE

Most baseball folk seem to prefer consistancy to upside. Even if it's consistant suck.

by Graham MacAree on Apr 25, 2006 6:58 AM PDT up reply actions

Part of it

is getting people who fit certain 'types' - almost as if a surface similarity in appearance and skillset can make up for, you know, talent or ability. It's weird.
I'm sure someone looked at Womack and thought they may have the next Julio Cruz (and when looking at Cruz' stats, remember to adjust for the run-scoring context of the early 80s): a solid defender who could steal 70-80 bases.
There are teams that love the stolen base, and no amount of BP articles about run expectancy will change that. If he gets on base at .320-.340, that's probably enough for a lot of teams.

I think that's silly, especially since Womack had trouble making it to .320 even in the minors (even though he was as old/older than the league), but it's extremely tempting to people who thought of Vince Coleman as a game changer, and those who think Scott Podsednik is a great player now.
To be fair, Womack does have some impressive SB numbers (very few CSs), and I don't begrudge him or GMs for the fact that he carved out a solid, NL career out of his skillset. He wasn't really competing against Justin Leone, however much we wish he was - he was competing against guys like Alfredo Amezaga, Esix Snead, Esteban German and a hundred guys nobody's heard of.

by marc w on Apr 26, 2006 4:58 PM PDT up reply actions

The "fit" point you make is a good one.

It reminds me of all those pre-draft scouting reports that invariably end with "has a body type similar to [insert random player with a vague resemblance]". What has that got to do with the guy's ability?

by Alex B on Apr 27, 2006 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions

Yeah

Like Eddie, he's living solely on reputation. At one time, he was a speedy guy who hit very well.

by Gomez on Apr 25, 2006 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions

It just goes to show you...

the weight that people in baseball put in the .300 average like it's a holy grail, OBP and slugging be damned!

by basebliman on Apr 25, 2006 2:19 PM PDT up reply actions

Ok if we trade Pineiro for Prospects.

From hardball times top 50 prospects
We need a starting pitcher if we deal pineiro so here are some that would qualify as sweet trades.

6) Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers
Would take him in a second for Pineiro + garbage*. He is a good pitcher right now and could be great if he doesn't get hurt and can get some more control. 99mph fastball + 80mph change = scary.

20) Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants
Lots of Ks but a fair amount of BB. 21 yrs old. Would like. Worrell, their closer, has blown two saves already. Barry's last season = desperate.

19) Anthony Reyes, St. Louis Cardinals
Sounds like injury is a problem and gives up a fair about of fly balls but strikes guys out and has good control. Ready for MLB. Cardinals will need a lefty to replace Mulder if they don't resign him. Also, Cardinals could use Borchard probably.

16) Chad Billingsley, Los Angeles Dodgers
Throws hard and lots of Ks. 21 yrs old. Decent secondary pitches and no injuries. LA has bad pitchers and are injury prone.

23) Joel Zumaya, Detroit Tigers
21 yrs old. Hard throwing. Bad control but lots of Ks. May be better for a reliever spot but still undecided. Could get him much easier than Verlander.

27) Jeremy Sowers, Cleveland Indians
Might be willing to part with him only because they are so stacked (but very unlikely). Ready for MLB. Great K/BB and is a lefty.

33) Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox
Don't need to say much. Everyone knows the situation. Local guy. Probably won't be able to get but who knows.

38) Philip Hughes, New York Yankees
Still in A ball but is 19 yrs old. Has small injury problem but is unhittable. Yankees need pitching but A ball is a bit low. I'd like a guy who is near ready.

37) Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels
Great college pitcher. Great fastball but extreme flyball pitcher. Great K/BB ratio. Projects to middle of rotation but has tools. Colon got hurt for Angels so they might be a bit desperate plus they kinda suck balls this year compared to the A's and won't make the playoffs even if the Rev is in denial.

42) Jon Papelbon, Boston Red Sox
Same as Lester except not local. Older at 25yrs old which limits upside a bit.

47) Chuck James, Atlanta Braves
Small with average velocity. Extreme flyball pitcher (needs to leave Texas bad). Numbersres look really good but might not have the stuff. Braves might need a SP, backup OF, and closer.

Removed all Marlins b/c they are broke. Just thought I'd throw this together. Discuss.

*Garbage is defined as a combo of Guardado, Mateo, Lawton, Borchard, Petagine (sorry) and useless minor leaguers who will not be named.

by Edgar for Pres on Apr 24, 2006 5:07 PM PDT reply actions

I can't imagine

any trade where we could deal anyone in the Mariners organization outside of Felix or Ichiro for any of those guys.

by david h on Apr 24, 2006 5:12 PM PDT up reply actions

Works for us...

...but what organization would possibly be stupid enough to trade someone like Verlander for Piniero? All you have to do is flip the stat book back one year to make Joel look all kinds of crappy. Remember, when you're forecasting a trade, you have to think of something that works for both teams. A top-50 prospect is not coming in trade unless the Ms offer something equal in value, and Piniero + garbage is not it.

"The Denver game was a bad day for my groin." -- Matt Hasselbeck

by zagreusmd on Apr 24, 2006 5:17 PM PDT up reply actions