On WE and Bullpen Usage

We all seem to agree that Hargrove, as well as most managers, do not use their bullpen in a way that helps the team the most - using crappier pitchers in high leverage situations early in the game and the best reliever (typically) based on save situations alone.

A lot of our complaints stem from Win Expectancy - looking at the daily charts and the WE data, we see that getting out of a tight situation in the 7th inning can improve a team's WE much more than closing the door in the 9th.  However, there may be a problem - I'm not sure how big - in analyzing bullpen usage this way.

WE is based on data from 1979 - 1990.  During this time, the traditional closer role was well established, though there probably were exceptions (managers who used their bullpen differently, or Mariano-type closers who often came in before the 9th).  So the data is based on the outcomes of "traditional" usage we see (and complain about) today.  

Because of this, perhaps the WE is still low with a close game in the 6th or 7th in part because lesser-skilled relievers were used in these earlier innings throughout the 1980s, and the leads were often blown by those pitchers.  And the WE shoots up so much after these innings because, once they get through them, the best pitchers typically finished off the game successfully.

If, during the decade, the best pitchers were used in the earlier innings as many suggest should happen, the WE would likely already be higher when they enter, since those middle innings are better protected.  Further, getting through the 6th - 8th may not increase the WE as much as it currently does if the best pitcher wasn't saved for the 9th during the decade of data - there would have been more blown 9th inning leads, and this would be reflected in a lower WE entering the 9th.  Thus, there would be a lower WE going into the 9th with a lead, and the pitcher who closes out the game would get a higher WE value than he currently does.

I doubt the change would be that drastic, and I agree that the best bullpen arm should not be saved for the 9th when there is an important situation earlier in the game, but it is something to consider.  Please point out if this is wrong for any reason - I went into this with a clear idea of what I intended to say and proceeded to get more and more confused as I wrote.