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Rate the Prospects!

I need to get my mind off Whore-atio Rafuckingmirez.  

Baseball America will come out with their annual top 10 prospects for the M's next Monday.  

I like to follow the M's farm system pretty closely, and now that the offseason is officially a bust, I am looking for a reason to turn my attention away from Bill Bavasi's handiwork.  

Anyhow, BA is IMO the best non-team-specific resource on prospects, followed closely by Kevin Goldstien at BP and John Sickels.  Sickels and Goldstien's organization reviews won't be out for a while.  And Jason Churchill should be doing a top-50 soon as well.  

It is always interesting to compare how these authorities rank prospects relative to our own, less informed outsider perspectives.  

Rankings are always subjective, but it is fun to put together lists and compare them with other clubs.  

Lets use this thread to come up with our own lists, and compare them with the ones that should be coming out soon.  

Here is top 25:

  1.  Adam Jones, CF: Underrated by national prospect pundits, but played well in AAA at age 20.  Heir apparent to Ichiro?  
  2.  Jeff Clement, C: struggled a bit, mainly due to completely incomprehensible promotion by the M's.  Still a top prospect.  Lefty power at C is extremely rare.  
  3.  Brandon Morrow, RHP: the prospect that should have been Andrew Miller is still a good arm.  Biggest question is whether or not he sticks as a starter or moves to the pen.  Either way, he could move fast.  
  4.  Anthony Butler, LHP:  Huge debut.  Looks like a potential steal of the draft.  Huge, projectable, and only needs to improve control a bit.  Nice prospect.  
  5.  Ryan Feierabend, LHP: closest starter to the majors.  His stuff has always been better than his results, but he has held his own against older competition at every level.  The new Travis Blackley?  Could help the M's in 2007.  
  6.  Chris Tillman, RHP: big potential.  Has great body and stuff, and could take off in 2007.  Lots of upside.
  7.  Emiliano Fruto, RHP: still technically a prospect, Fruto did a lot better last season than a lot of people give him credit for.  With Soriano being given away for nothing, lets hope that Fruto can emerge as a major contributor in 2007.  
  8.  Mark Lowe, RHP: Huge question mark.  Should probably be lower given the potential severity of his injury.  Perhaps the M's willingness to trade Soriano for scrap reflects a much better prognosis than we might think?  Or maybe I am just trying to fool myself.  
  9.  Greg Halman, CF: He did well in the NWL before injuring his hand.  Scouts love his tools, and he reminds you a bit of Adam Jones based on physique.  One to watch in 2007.  
  10. Carlos Triunfel, SS: We don't know much about him, but he is the highest profile international signing the M's have made in a long time.  Initial scouting reports are glowing, and he could be the best prospect in the system by 2008.  
  11. Mario Martinez, OF: I put him below Triunfel based mainly on his signing bonus and national exposure, but some people are suggesting that the M's like him just as much as Triunfel.  Again, very little information to go on, but early reports are that he is a toolsy outfielder with a ton of potential.  
  12. Luis Valbuena, 2B: Stats look ugly, but peripheral stats are promising.  Could take off in 2007 in High Desert.  Underrated.  
  13. Brain LaHair, 1B:  I am not sold on this guy, but his flashes of brilliance at AAA last year were too impressive to rank him any lower. Could be the next Ben Broussard.  
  14. Geraldo Avila, 1B: One of the best power prospect in the lower minors.  Bit lefty 1Bman.  
  15. Carlos Peguero. OF: tore up the AZL (.313/.380/.649) before earning a late promotion to Everett.  He is huge (6'5", 210 at age 19), lefthanded, and has serious tools.  This is the type of guy that the M's are lacking right now.  
  16. Alex Liddi, 3B:  Big, projectable, raw Italian player.  Will be 18 next season, and is a guy to keep an eye on.  
  17. Yorman Bazardo: Stuff is better than results, and K rate is very low for a guy with his arm.  Needs to move to pen next year.  
  18. Matt Tuiasosopo: like Clement and Jones, the M's have promoted this guy at a breakneck pace.  Why?  Who knows.  I think his struggles are just as much a reflection of the M's handling of him as they are of his talent.  Next season is a make-or-break year for him.  Still has tools and time, but is fading fast.  
  19. Justin Thomas, LHP: Could be the next Travis Blackley or Bobby Livingston.  Scouts like him better than the other soft-tossing lefties in the sysem (eg Robert Rohrbaugh).  Faces a huge challenge in 2007.  
  20. Wladimir Balentien, OF: Lets hope that he can consolidate the gains he made in plate discipline last season, continue to cut down his K's, and maintain power.  That is much easier said than done.  
  21.  Eric O'Flaherty: very good season in 2007, and he held his own in Seattle.  Could use some time in Tacoma next year, but he should be back in Seattle very soon.  
  22. Anthony Varvaro, RHP: this is my pick for biggest sleeper in the organization.  A full season removed from TJ surgery, I can't wait to see what this guy can do when healthy.  
  23. Rob Johnson, C: Difficult to evaluate due to overly aggressive promotions.  Still a decent prospect, with a good balance of strong defense and some offensive upside.    
  24. Kameron Mickolio, RHP: A good sleeper candidate and very reminiscent of JJ Putz.  He is a huge guy (6'9", 256) and could flourish in the pen.  Teach him how to throw a splitter, and he could turn into a very good power reliever.  
  25. Steve Uhlmansiek, LHP: solid return from arm problems in 2006.  Next year will be big for him.  
Missing the cut: Travis Blackley, Stephen Kahn, Michael Saunders, Michael Garciaparra, Yung Chi Chen.  

Obviously, I weigh upside more than likelihood of helping the ML club.  Thus, Triunfel, Peguero, Avila, and Martinez are ranked higher than guys who are safer bets.  

The strength of this system is concentrated in the lower levels, and, overall, it is not a good group.  Hopefully, Bavasi's idiocy won't include dealing these guys for more crap.  

Instead of dwelling on the negative (Horacio Ramirez), why don't you guys post your own lists.  Or just bash mine.  Then, we can compare against what guys like Jim Callis, John Sickels, and Kevin Goldstein come up with.  The best Mariners-specific sources, Jason Churchill, should be putting out a list soon as well.  

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I'd throw Snelling in there
simply because, peronally, I would still consider him a "prospect"

other than that, I just find it hard to care since Bavasi is probably going to trade off 20% of the guys for some extra strength scalp polisher.

by Matthew on Dec 7, 2006 11:20 AM PST reply actions  

Hmmm
To be honest, I didn't really consider him that much.  I don't know a whole lot about him besides his stats and the minimal information that is on BA's draft page.  He and Mickolio are both big guys who did pretty well in Everett.  Mickolio seems to have more upside.  He is from Montana, and is really raw.  He has only pitched for a few years, and there could be more there.  He also has excellent groundball tendencies.  Fister was a senior out of Fresno State, and you would expect him to be a bit more of a finished product.  At the very least, you would expect Fister to have been scouted much more extensively.  

It is nice that the M's are picking up guys who might have some projection.  It seems like a dramatic departure from the old days of 23 finesse lefties every draft.  Every pitcher the M's got is either huge, throws gas, or both.  That is nice.  

Nathan Adcock is another middle round guy who could be good.  Haven't heard much about him, but he had a decent debut.  

by Jerry on Dec 7, 2006 7:45 PM PST up reply actions  

I went to Doug Fister's first pro start
in Everett, where he threw 5 no-hit innings, striking out 9.  

I've been in love with him ever since.

He's like ninety feet tall and a generally good guy.  Conor Glassey interviewed him a few months ago, you might find that fun to read.

Marinerds - a different daily dose of baseblog.

by Deanna on Dec 7, 2006 11:29 PM PST up reply actions  

What? BA was supposed to release it tomorrow...
Curses...
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." -- Samuel Beckett

by JY on Dec 7, 2006 5:16 PM PST reply actions  

Too busy, apparently
They changed it to Monday.  I was bummed about that too.  

They were probably too busy laughing their asses off at our expense, and forgot to do it.  

Or maybe they wanted to give M's fans a chance to recover from smashing our heads against the wall for the chat after they put it up.  

by Jerry on Dec 7, 2006 7:30 PM PST up reply actions  

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