Wednesday Wrap-Up
Rather than go with something new every day and quickly extinguish the list of synonyms for "wrap-up", I'm just not going to try and think of any at all. Without further ado:
This is why I both love and absolutely detest the offseason. There's speculation being passed off as fact everywhere you turn, and it's virtually impossible to weed through all of it and pick out what's actually true. Here we have two different authors from two different papers saying opposite things on the same day. One of them has to be true, but right now I don't think we have any way of knowing which. The first one certainly sounds more legitimate, yet the second is more casual and matter-of-fact, as if the Mariners' pursuit of Igawa is a given. So who knows?
One of the ideas I've been toying with for what seems like years is keeping track of which authors report which rumors, and how many of these rumors come to fruition. It'd give us an easy and direct way of figuring out who to trust the most. It sounds a lot easier to do than it actually is, though, so if someone else feels like assuming that burden, more power to you. The first person able to sort out all the offseason crap is going to be a wealthy man (or woman), and as much as I'd like to be that guy, it's just too much for me to handle.
Anyway, I certainly hope the Mariners end up in the Igawa bidding - he looks like one of the only potential bargains (or at least decent values) of the winter, a #3/4 pitcher who wouldn't command #2 money. Smart front offices with a need for pitching will turn away from the free agent market and set their sights either (A) overseas, (B) in the minors, or (C) on other teams as trade partners, as those are the places where good deals are still available. Just look at the numbers being floated around in the articles this morning. Jason Schmidt wants $14m a year. Gil Meche is already being offered deals in the 3-5 year/$9m per range. Ted Lilly and Adam Eaton are meeting with everyone, and Tomo freaking Ohka is suddenly being looked at as a multimillion dollar "value" instead of as the $1.5m #5 pitcher he really is. Believe me when I say this: no good is going to come out of this year's free agent pitching crop, at least not from the upper tiers. Spending is going to be insane, and the Mariners would be wise to not even bother.
My favorite indication of just how crazy everyone's getting? From Larue's article:
Usually, when teams suspect a player will be let go rather than offered arbitration, they wait for that to occur.
This year, at least two teams have contacted Seattle about trading for Piñeiro, whose earned run average has gone from 4.67 to 5.62 to 6.36 in the past three seasons.
Joel Pineiro is easily one of the worst starting pitchers in Major League Baseball. And people want to trade stuff for him. GM's are identifying Pineiro as someone who could actually help their teams get better. I don't need to spell out for you just how ridiculous this is. It's like getting invited to a Halloween party the morning of the 31st when all the costume shops are sold out, so you stick yourself with a needle and go as 'a guy with dysentery'. Sure, you have your costume and you spend the whole night feeling all smug about how clever you are, but you'll regret it a day or two later. The difference is that, where dysentery kills one person at a time, Pineiro kills thousands.
Not much else out there. The Mariners bought out Eduardo Perez to make him a free agent, but he may still re-sign at a lower salary. And ownership supposedly approved a payroll increase into the upper-$90m range, but if the front office goes after free agent pitchers like it looks like they will, they'll reach their limit quicker than you think.
I've been dreading a Matsuzaka-less offseason for a while, now. The potential is still there for the Mariners to have a good winter, but I'd be lying if I said I think they'll pull it off. At this point, the best we can hope for might be that they sign a few guys to the least bad contracts and go from there. It doesn't have to be that way, but I'm afraid that may just be our reality.
0 recs |
35 comments
Comments
Total Opposite
by lessthnpar on Nov 15, 2006 8:07 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, don't like the fact that Larue thinkgs Igawa
Also, if your Bavasi, how the hell do you NOT trade Pineiro if somebody actually wants to give you something, anything, for him?
by Matthew on Nov 15, 2006 8:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe he's being offered Pavano and Ponson?
by Mariner John on Nov 15, 2006 4:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Tres difficile
I'd say the most reasonable case scenario is that the Mariners go all in on Jason Schmidt and decide that TWO rotation spots are up for grabs for minor leaguers to compete with. Woods and Baek didn't kill the rotation when they join it and they won't kill it now. Of course this assumes that Mariners go looking for pitchers off the scrap-heap or in bargain bins incase one of those guys has a weak Spring Training.
by ThundaPC on Nov 15, 2006 9:12 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Have I mentioned recently
That would go a long way towards relieving all this anxiety.
by Jeff on Nov 15, 2006 9:18 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Well...
I would be surprised if their combined ERA was much under 5, if that. They're just not very good.
Two rotation spots for replacement-level starters...well, meet the 2004-2006 Seattle Mariners.
I guess if Felix turns into a top-line P and we get Schmidt performing like it's 2003, and Washburn like it's 2002 or 2005, you'd be OK, but if Felix struggles, Schmidt goes down another notch, and Washburn's his usual self, you're looking at a staff that's at best incrementally better than 2006- a 75-80 win team with a sub-average pitching staff and average-to-above average offense, playing in a pitcher's park that makes the pitching staff look average and the offense look bad.
by eponymous coward on Nov 15, 2006 10:37 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Hittin' up the trade market . . . .
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/writers/jon_heyman/11/15/wed.scoop/2.html
Which brings to mind Nate Robertson - the Tigers have decent depth in their starting rotation, and Roberston has put up some pretty good numbers (and about a 1.5 GB/FB ratio, to boot).
This is the type of move that would make me excited - send Broussard and some cash (and a mid-level prospect, if needed) for Robertson (a good above-replacement-level lefty starting pitcher).
by Envirohawk on Nov 15, 2006 11:11 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Robertson :p
by chrisisasavage on Nov 15, 2006 11:44 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Also
by chrisisasavage on Nov 15, 2006 11:49 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If you average out Meche, Moyer and JoePa
In other words, sort of keeping Joel Pineiro and Jake Woods in the rotation, it would be really hard to have a rotation as bad as 2006's. The greatness of the bullpen masked how poor the front 5 really were.
by Matthew on Nov 15, 2006 12:04 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
That's because Joel was awful.
Go look at Baek's 2004. There's no reason a replacement level pitcher can't come in and do that OR Baek's 2006.
You can survive having one Halama/Franklin/Baek/whoever type schlepping up 4-6 innings a start at the back of your rotation. The problem with two is that not only will you have a lot of poorly pitched games you have to win 8-7, your bullpen is getting heavily used two days in a row. Add in Washburn (average 6.03 IP per start last year), and your rotation has maybe TWO guys who you can reasonably expect to see a 7th inning.
by eponymous coward on Nov 16, 2006 3:09 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Don't disagree with you
Futhermore,
Moyer 6.4 IP/GS
Meche 5.8 IP/GS
Pineiro 5.24 IP/GS
Combined: 5.825 IP/GS
So, yeah, what you are describing is exactly what the 06 Ms already went through.
by Matthew on Nov 16, 2006 3:40 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
What?
LOL.
by Trent on Nov 15, 2006 9:17 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Also
I love the fact that he was fired weeks ago and is now recognized as the best manager in the league.
Jeffrey Loria deserves to be drawn and quartered, olde english style.
by Matthew on Nov 15, 2006 12:05 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Am I the only one
I mean seriously bringing back Josh Johnson after a 80 minute rain delay, which then put him on the shelf for the rest of the season.
I don't care if it was only 1 innings because for how much preperation you do before the game you can't let your arm get cold. 80 minutes is a hell of a long time to keep your arm warm.
Were calling for Grovers head all the time but at least he hasn't done this to Felix.
by Scruffy Lefty on Nov 15, 2006 12:59 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I am not saying
by Scruffy Lefty on Nov 15, 2006 1:00 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
So you'd fire a guy
But to fire a guy that took a team that made the team at the beginning of Major League look good, and turn them into a team that just missed cracking .500 (and making some history along the way - they were the first team to come from 20 games below .500 to .500 in MLB history)? That's positively Steinbrennerian "that was YESTERDAY. What have you done for me TODAY" thinking.
Girardi's a hell of a manager, and I would love to see Seattle try to get him in 2008 - as long as he has a strong pitching coach to keep him away from decisions like re-starting the same pitcher after an 80 minute delay.
by pdb on Nov 15, 2006 1:16 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
If I was the Marlins
If I was a team like the Red Sox or Yankees or anyone thats trying to win now. No I wouldn't fire him, Hell I would give him a bonus for trying to win every game.
Like I said above he did a hell of a job. But he was in wrong place for the type of manager he is.
by Scruffy Lefty on Nov 15, 2006 1:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Is there actual data?
I'm just curious because its always been that if the rain delay is more than 20 minutes then a new pitcher is brought in.
yet if a team has a double header its nothing for a reliever to pitch twice in the same day.
So what is the actual situation that makes it sure that its bad to bring someone back in after a delay?
by MfaninAlaska on Nov 15, 2006 2:37 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
if your looking for a stat I have no idea
What the problem is during a long rain delay you have to find a way to keep your arm warm to prevent cramping. And the best way to keep your arm warm is to keep throwing. So the longer the rain delay the more likely your not going to be affective, which can lead to other fatigue related problems.
by Scruffy Lefty on Nov 15, 2006 3:13 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Jeffrey Loria already made up his mind
More like, Loria fired him for "insubordination". The Johnson 80-minute delay game doubtless provided a Grady-Little-overextending-Pedro like excuse, though.
by Karen on Nov 16, 2006 12:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
In regards to bidding on Igawa
In Yamauchi we trust....right?(nervous laugh)
by Robert on Nov 15, 2006 1:17 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Trading Jake Woods
by JLC on Nov 15, 2006 3:32 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I can see the conversation now :)
Clueless GM: <the sound of the adults from the Peanuts>
Bavasi: Jake Woods, you know, we had him start for the Mariners this year?
Clueless GM: <more sound of the adults from the Peanuts, and groaning>
Bavasi: Oh, well, yeah, OK. Half drank 6 pack of Olde English cans, ok, some broken pencils, OK, used toilet paper, OK, a Ryan Franklin bobblehead with a broken spring. What if I through in Julio Mat...
Clueless GM: <more groaning>
Bavasi: Wait, you really think the bobble head can pitch better than both of them combined? It's a Ryan Franklin bobblehead, I mean. What if I throw in Joel Pineiro?
Clueless GM: <click>
Bavasi: Damn not again! Who knows, maybe he's right, that bobblehead would probably be a better pitcher than the real Ryan Franklin, let alone Woods and Mateo. I wonder what it would take to get it off their hands ....
by chrisisasavage on Nov 15, 2006 3:53 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
No one has mentioned this abomination
I just can't quit looking at these mailbags even though there's no reason to view them.
by Mariner John on Nov 15, 2006 8:49 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
I feel bad for Corey Brock
But doing those mailbags must be like taking two dozen severely retarded kids to the park.
by Jerry on Nov 16, 2006 4:37 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Still
by Mariner John on Nov 16, 2006 3:49 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
he may not get to choose
by jtopps on Nov 16, 2006 3:54 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
i can't imagine he does
by Matthew on Nov 16, 2006 4:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Wow, Corey Brock is a VERY good sport
by Gomez on Nov 16, 2006 7:54 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Take it for what it's worth
http://www.rotowire.com/roto_to_gnews.htm?ID=206034&sport=mlb
by JoeyJoJoJuniorShabadoo on Nov 16, 2006 2:19 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
So in other words
by Gomez on Nov 16, 2006 2:26 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah, well...
Offseason rumors are dangerous because of the echo-effect. Is this just someone who read the Geoff Baker piece?
by jtopps on Nov 16, 2006 3:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

by 












