Matsuzaka posting a hoax?

by batura on Nov 14, 2006 11:35 AM PST Comment 14 comments

Given that the Sox paid 42m for a pitcher that would normally be a free agent in a year, I believe that they will extend Matsuzaka a very low contract offer-- something on the order of $10m/3 years. If he accepts it, hey, great, but if not, at least he's not going to be in pinstripes next year.

The problem is that this will likely burn the Sox from any chance that he would be willing to sign with them in the future, but they might be willing to live with that.

Either way, I expect Matsuzaka to be playing for the Lions next year because I think everyone agrees that nobody is worth $72m for three years, especially when he'll be worth something line $30-35m/3 years next year.

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Um

That's an awful lot of assumptions to be making about what the BoSox front office is doing.

by Graham on Nov 14, 2006 11:58 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Why did you post this?

by Matthew on Nov 14, 2006 12:00 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

wrong on most counts

There is no reason to think he will be lowballed.

-Sox need arms; his is the best on the market.

-Sox have a large pile of cash. DM brings in a lot, a lot of revenue to replace much of the cash he eats. Money is not an issue here.

-He will get at least a four year contract. Your estimate of what he will be worth next year is way off.

-see above

by Bearskin Rugburn on Nov 14, 2006 12:46 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

The stupid part is

Red Sox probably won't really see as much of the extra cash Matsuzaka brings in, because any Japanese tourists coming to Boston will have to buy their tickets off Ebay or elsewhere. It's not like the Sox really have to fill more seats in their already-always-sold-out stadium.

Unless the team actually sees a cut of their overseas television deals... but I was under the impression somehow that overseas revenue went to MLB, not to individual teams? So where exactly does the extra money come in, unless Japanese companies want to advertise with them, I guess?

Marinerds - a different daily dose of baseblog.

by Deanna on Nov 14, 2006 1:23 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Ichiro...

DOES bring in Advertising profit, like Ajinomoto, Nissan, whatever.

The problem is, like you said, I'm not sure that's as large of a cut for the Red Sox. Fenway probably already has the most expensive advertising outside of Yankee Stadium anyways.

I don't get the whole planting a flag in Asia thing. Everyone knows the Red Sox already, just by virtue of being mortal enemies of the Yanks.

Detect-O-Vision

Favor the Bold

by IcebreakerX on Nov 15, 2006 5:34 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Who says he's only getting a 3-year deal?

If you pony up that kind of dough, even on a pitcher, I'm sure he's gonna get a minimum of 4 years, and with his age, he's likely to get an insane 5 or 6 year deal.

by basebliman on Nov 14, 2006 12:47 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

Good point

I didn't think about the possibility of giving him a 5 to 6 year deal. That would certainly make more sense, but that is still a risky proposition.

It just really struck me as odd that the Sox outbid the other teams by a reported $7-12m. $42m is an awful lot of money and I have a hard time justifying any non-major league pitcher is worth it. Then again, it could be that the Sox have a backdoor deal with the Lions to bid $42m and pay some other figure, or that they really do believe this guy is top-top-tier material, with 5-6 year deal durability.

I don't really care for the posting process-there are a lot of questions about integrity of the deal. Why doesn't the bid go into an MLB controlled escrow account (to ensure the bid amount is the only amount paid)? Why isn't there some sort of penalty for the MLB team that failed to secure the player with a contract (to prevent lowballing)?

rljaws, I posted this because it crossed my mind last night and I thought it was interesting. LL is the site I follow the most for baseball, so I thought it'd be interesting to see what people thought besides "I don't know who you are so your opinion is stupid".

Trust me, I hope I'm wrong. I am a M's fan down to the bone, but I do like and respect the Sox and I am excited to watch the magic of Matsuzaka in the majors, especially since its not for the Yankees.

by batura on Nov 14, 2006 12:58 PM PST reply actions 0 recs

I think you got the reaction you got

because many of the things you say have already been discussed at length on this site and others like it.

There are penalties in place for a team to make a cockblock bid and lowball a posted player. Selig specifically threatened teams in this case with hell knows what ("I'll sit on you!"), on top of the fact that the MLB-NBL agreement that if the winning team does not bring a good faith offer to the table, the negotiatoin rights go to the next highest bidder. There is more incentive to be honest than not.

As far as the money goes... You know, every season people are blown away by the cash thrown around baseball. This is an enormous sum, but it's if its not counted against payroll, as it certainly won't be, it doesn't translate directly into /year salary. Read some of the recent comment threads on the bid for further rationalizations.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Nov 14, 2006 1:31 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

sorry about all the errors...

I've got my hands full of isotope right now and can't proofread too well

by Bearskin Rugburn on Nov 14, 2006 1:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

And it's not like

the Red Sox don't have the money. The "scrappy underdog" tag that was slapped on the 2004 Red Sox is the biggest joke in modern baseball.

The Sox have just as much money as the Yankees do, but they've portrayed themselves as likable underdogs to the Evil Empire, so people think the Sox are spending like idiots when in reality the posting fee is probably about 3 months' worth of NESN revenue.

Nice Guys Finish Third - Hopelessly lost, but makin' good time.

by pdb on Nov 14, 2006 1:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Guh

Nobody dismissed your "opinion" because of not knowing you. Your opinion was dismissed because:

1. The idea of a fake bid has been discussed, beyond length, in many many many places both here and at other sites.

but, far more importantly, because

2. It's utter conjecture. It's not based on ANYTHING. Nobody except people commenting on blogs is even talking about this possibility. It's not a story. It's not even a rumour.

by Matthew on Nov 14, 2006 1:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs

That's cool

I didn't realize that it had been fully discussed on blogs-- I have read some thought about it, but not specifically with the Sox.

I do realize its pointless conjecture, but, really, that's the nature of blogging-- see Hargrove fiasco (from firing Hassey to Lincoln's letter). And I did end up just hearing this idea discussed on KJR, but that's about as baseless as blogging.

by batura on Nov 14, 2006 2:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs