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Free Agent Over/Unders

Partially inspired by this post over at LSB, I thought we'd play a little game.

Every so often I'll post the names of three free agents, along with the contracts that they might command on the market. You tell me if the years and annual salary are too high or too low (so it'll be a two-part answer). If you think they'll get exactly what I post for either part, just say "right on" or something.

The first three:

JD Drew: 4 years, $12m per
Gil Meche: 3 years, $7.5m per
Jason Schmidt: 4 years, $12m per

0 recs | Comment 42 comments

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Ok
JD Drew
Yrs: Same
$$$: Over

Meche
Yrs: Same
$$$: Under

Schmidt
Yrs: Under
$$$: Over

by Edgar for Pres on Nov 11, 2006 9:16 AM PST   0 recs

fun
Drew, same, over
Meche, same, over
Schmidt, under*, over

*I think he gets 3Y guaranteed with a 4y option so I don't know how that will be counted.

by Matthew on Nov 11, 2006 9:27 AM PST   0 recs

Hmm.
For these purposes, we'll just count guaranteed years.

by Jeff on Nov 11, 2006 9:40 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Money's flowing like water, so
Drew: over, over
Meche: same, over
Schmidt: over, over

by abelard on Nov 11, 2006 9:59 AM PST   0 recs

here we go
Drew: years- over
      money- over

Meche: years- same
       money- same

Schmidt: years- over
         money- over

WIN IT FOR RAFFY!!!

by MFAN on Nov 11, 2006 10:10 AM PST   0 recs

My take
Drew: Years over, Money over
I don't see him opting out of a 11m/yr contract for 3 years to take on a deal worth 1 million more per season plus one extra season. He and his agent must be looking for a significant upgrade.

Gilberto: Years same, Money over
I remember Fairly saying during a game this year, "Gil's problem is he's just got too good a stuff." The implication being if he ever truly hones his command, he'll be an unstoppable helldemon of a pitcher, exhaling streams of fire out his nostrils and striking out 27 a game. Crazy as it sounds, I think there are GMs out there who actually agree with him.

Schmidt: Years under, Money over
I have to give the GMs (particularly those with alliterative names) at least a little bit of credit.  They SHOULD know better than to give a rapidly aging power pitcher a 4+ year deal. Should, of course, being the operative word here. The money's a different story altogether.

by Slozbury Stouvre on Nov 11, 2006 10:15 AM PST   0 recs

GM's are insane...
Drew gets an absolute minimum 4 years, but I think Boras will say no less than 6, because he really wants at least 5, hoping some GM like Dombrowski will actually give him 6. The money will be at least 13 mil per year if not 15 (again Boras at work and GM's are nuts).

Meche will get 3 years, totally agree on that, but he'll probably get 8.5-9 million per year. Just a feeling I get with the insane bids for Dice-K, and the numbers thrown around for Zito, that when they go, some team will overpay Meche so they aren't "left out".

Schmidt will most likely only get 4 years, but some GM may actually give him a 5th year option that vests based on innings. Money is going to get nuts, probably in the 13-15 million range because salaries are starting to skyrocket again after a tiny bit of "fiscal responsibility" the last couple years.

The way the market is shaping up, I'd be SHOCKED if the M's picked up anyone of interest through free agency. I'm hoping for a decent trade, but I wouldn't be surprised if our lineup now stays virtually the same, and the rotation gets only someone like Eaton and replacement level guys like Johnson. A big splash for Bavasi would be getting Padilla, and they'd make a big "OMFG what a huge signing" deal out of it. I'm so pessimistic on the team right now, it's not even funny. If this team finishes one-win better next year, they'd say, "look, we improved, everybody stays!" Sometimes, I wish I wasn't addicted to baseball. It only disappoints me in the end.

by basebliman on Nov 11, 2006 12:37 PM PST   0 recs

I'm not sure I'm this bitter
But my opinion of 2007 is about the same.  I don't see this team doing much more in 07 than it did this year.  The upside is that if there's a slide or no improvement, Hargrove is gone, and in losing Bavasi, maybe we bring in someone who won't make the big signing for the sake of making the big signing, which is going to spend the next 3-5 years shooting this team's budget and makeup in the foot.

by Gomez on Nov 11, 2006 12:56 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Ok
Drew--under/right on (5/12)
Meche--Right on (2007's Loaiza)
Schmidt--under/under (5/13)

by Greybear on Nov 11, 2006 12:54 PM PST   0 recs

Heh.
You have those backwards.

by Jeff on Nov 11, 2006 1:27 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Hmm...
Drew:
Years:  over
Money:  over
(He'll get $70+ million over 5+ years)

Meche:
Years:  right on
Money:  under
($18M/3)

Schmidt:
Years:  right on
Money:  over
($50+M/4)

by Trev on Nov 11, 2006 1:05 PM PST   0 recs

I would
almost think about Meche at 6 mil/yr.  On a sidenoe the huskies are worthelsee peices of shit adn suck.  Can't fucking beileive i watched them lose tho fucking stanfodrt.

by Edgar for Pres on Nov 11, 2006 5:19 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Are you drunk?
Or just don't think it's worth the time to spell right in a sentence about the Huskies? lol
Willie Bloomquist and Mike Hargrove suck

by Mariner John on Nov 11, 2006 5:33 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Agree, drunk or not
Man, you talk about a meltdown.... and don't give me the excuse about Stanback going down.  Bonnell and DuRocher didn't suck this bad last year.

by Gomez on Nov 11, 2006 7:08 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Stanback wasn't that good
I thought Bonnell was almost as good.  The real problem with our team is that all the players lack talent.  I can't really say anything good about any of our players.  Stanback is really athletic but is stupid and between his huge plays can be pretty painful to watch.  Our team is so pathetic that our best player by far is our punter.

by Edgar for Pres on Nov 12, 2006 1:04 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

As they say in Eugene...
Huck the Fuskies!!!

At least we pretty much know they suck, unlike the Cougars who can't seem to ever make up their mind and quite often like to COUG IT!!!

Are we there yet?

by PositivePaul on Nov 11, 2006 8:02 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

I have to add
... the Huskies lost to a winless team that hadn't scored a TD in five weeks.  They scored two today.  UW scored 3 points.

by Gomez on Nov 11, 2006 10:04 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

holy crap
Stanford hadn't scored a TD in 5 weeks??

A school for the blind could score at least 2! in a 5 weeks

WIN IT FOR RAFFY!!!

by MFAN on Nov 11, 2006 10:47 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

At this point...
...the Huskies probably couldn't even beat that school for the blind.

Now watch 'em go beat 'em Cougs next week ;-)

Are we there yet?

by PositivePaul on Nov 11, 2006 11:06 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

hehe
you throw away all the records when the apple cup rolls around!
WIN IT FOR RAFFY!!!

by MFAN on Nov 11, 2006 11:18 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Yeah I was pretty drunk and happy I was
cause that game was horrible.  I kinda realized that the post was going to be a drunk post but didn't have the will to go back and try to proof read it.  As long as we beat WSU, I'll be happy.

On a sidenote, my favorite WSU joke:

Jesus was suppose to be born in Pullman but they couldn't find three wise men or a virgin.

by Edgar for Pres on Nov 12, 2006 1:00 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Very Interesting....
Drew:  
Years:  Under
Money:  Under

Meche:
Years:  Even
Money:  Under (Clubs are dumb)

Schmidt:
Years:  Even
Money:  Under

Boras didn't have drew give up 11m to make one more per...in fact, I think they know something about his health that no one else does...

Meche is one of those guys a GM will take a chance on...let them.  He'll go right back to being a shitty pitcher.

Schmidt will get big money because of the limited pool of talent.  I think he'll average closer to 15m per, which is scary, particularly if the M's are the idiots who sign him for that...

I killed a 12 pack just to watch it die...

by Dollar97 on Nov 11, 2006 1:30 PM PST   0 recs

Wait
Unless I'm missing something, don't you mean over instead of under?

by Jeff on Nov 11, 2006 1:40 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

It is impossible to think....
and see clearly with one bloodshot eye....and both living brain cells hungover or still intoxicated.....you are correct....for the money...make the unders, over and call me an idiot....hungover, but an idiot.
I killed a 12 pack just to watch it die...

by Dollar97 on Nov 13, 2006 7:50 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Mine
Drew: Over on money under on years
Meche: Under on both
Schmidt: Under on years over on money
Willie Bloomquist and Mike Hargrove suck

by Mariner John on Nov 11, 2006 1:39 PM PST   0 recs

Mine
Drew:  Over on years, Over on money
Mine:  5 years / 13 million per

Meche:  Same on years, Over on money
Mine:  Some schmuck is going to give Gil 3 years / 8 million per.

Schmidt:  Same on years, Same on money
Mine:  A 4 year 50 million dollar contract is probably going to be low, but we'll see.

DAMNIT!

by TIF on Nov 11, 2006 2:12 PM PST   0 recs

Game On
JD Drew: 4 years, $12m per
Gil Meche: 3 years, $7.5m per
Jason Schmidt: 4 years, $12m per

JD Drew: Same/Over
Gil Meche: Same/Over
Schmidt: Over/Under

by ThundaPC on Nov 11, 2006 5:24 PM PST   0 recs

A Meta Question
Shouldn't you have listed the years at x.5, so people wouldn't be taking the even?

by NBarnes on Nov 11, 2006 10:54 PM PST   0 recs

In retrospect, yes.
I'll do that for the next set (and the sets to follow).

by Jeff on Nov 11, 2006 11:19 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Hmm
JD Drew: 4 years, $12m per

over/over

I think that Boras is going to be looking for 5 years.  I would guess $13 mil on the per year.

Gil Meche: 3 years, $7.5m per

yup/over

Meche is going to get overpaid this year.  I see him getting 8-9 per year.  

Jason Schmidt: 4 years, $12m per

yup/???

This is an intesting case.  I think that Schmidt will probably be looking at 4 years and $13 mil on the open market.  But I have a feeling that he could be one of those rare guys that would except a bit less to play in Seattle or San Fran, or at least another west coast club.  If Baltimore and the NY clubs aren't real options, that could push his value down to 4 years, $12 mil or so.  

It will be interesting to see how serious his desire to stay on the west coast is.  

by Jerry on Nov 12, 2006 6:32 AM PST   0 recs

Of course
these go out the window when someone guarantees Ted Lilly five years . . .

Drew:
same years/over salary ($12.5 m)

Meche:
same years/over salary ($8 m)

Schmidt:
same years/under salary ($11.25 m -- turns down a little more elsewhere to stay on the west coast)

by G_ on Nov 12, 2006 11:48 AM PST   0 recs

Wishful thinking
Drew: Same, more
Meche: Less, less
Schmidt: Less, same
Marinerds - a different daily dose of baseblog.

by Deanna on Nov 12, 2006 2:35 PM PST   0 recs

I'll play...
Drew: Same, more
Meche: More, more
Schmidt: Same, more
"The secret of managing is to keep the guys who hate you away from the guys who are undecided." -Casey Stengel

by ConorGlassey on Nov 12, 2006 4:16 PM PST   0 recs

Okay, My turn.
Easy.

Over, Over
Over, Over
Over, Over

Heh.  There.

Free. Agency. Isn't. Free.  

In fact,

It. SUCKS!

(Unless, of course, you're the player gettin' the pay day)...

Are we there yet?

by PositivePaul on Nov 12, 2006 4:34 PM PST   0 recs

Over, Under
JD Drew: 4 years, $12m per
- More Years, More Money

Gil Meche: 3 years, $7.5m per
- Same Years, More Money

Jason Schmidt: 4 years, $12m per
-Less Years, More Money

by Justise on Nov 12, 2006 4:48 PM PST   0 recs

Ok, I'll play.
JD Drew-Same,over

Gil Meche-Over,over

Jason Schmidt-same, over

Aici zace un om despre care nu se ştie prea mult.

by Goose on Nov 13, 2006 12:48 AM PST   0 recs

Can't pass on this opportunity
Drew: over/over
Meche: over/over
Schmidt: push/over

by Trent on Nov 13, 2006 1:25 PM PST   0 recs

Fun games
Drew:  over/over
Meche:  push/over
Schmidt:  push/over

by Jed C on Nov 13, 2006 1:33 PM PST   0 recs

I think
Drew: push/under
Meche: push/under
Schmidt: push/over

I think teams will make Drew pay for his disloyalty. It's not like he is such a great player that everyone will be fighting over him.

The good news is that the subject of so many of our annoyances (Meche) will not hit the bonanza he thinks he is about to come into. The bad news is that I believe the team who is going to get him for that "bargain" will be the Mariners. He'll end up getting $20mil over 3 years -- and we'll all get 20 million ulcers.

The extra money the FO makes by re-signing Meche will be spent on Schmidt.

by kva15 on Nov 13, 2006 3:08 PM PST   0 recs

Ouch.
Drew: even, over (4/$14m)
Meche: over, over (4/$8.5m)
Schmidt: even, over (4/$13m) gently weeping for 2010 M's

by Josh on Nov 16, 2006 9:33 AM PST   0 recs

Heh
Didn't know that asterisks would make it bold.

by Josh on Nov 16, 2006 9:34 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

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