Off Season Plan

by Grant H on Oct 30, 2006 2:23 AM PST

This is what I would do if I was GM:

C - Kenji Johjima (5.2 Mil)
C - Guillermo Quiroz (0.38 Mil)
1B - Ben Broussard (4.0 Mil)
1B - Eduardo Perez (2.0 Mil)
2B - Jose Lopez (0.38 Mil)
SS - Yuniesky Betancourt (0.4 Mil)
3B - Adrian Beltre (11.5 Mil)
INF - Antonio Perez (0.38 Mil)
INF - Willie Bloomquist (1.0 Mil)
LF - Raul Ibanez (5.5 Mil)
CF - Ichiro (11.0 Mil)
RF - Chris Snelling (0.38 Mil)
OF - Marcus Thames (2.8 Mil)
DH - Barry Bonds (10.0 Mil)

SP - Felix Hernandez (0.38 Mil)
SP - Vincente Padilla (7.0 Mil)
SP - Kei Igawa (6.0 Mil)
SP - Orlando Hernandez (4.5 Mil)
SP - Jarrod Washburn (10.0 Mil)
SP/LR - Mark Mulder (1.5 Mil)
MR - Eric O'Flaherty (0.38 Mil)
MR - Mark Lowe (0.38 Mil)
SU - George Sherill (0.38 Mil)
SU - Raphael Soriano (2.5 Mil)
CL - J.J. Putz (2.5 Mil)

Total Payroll: 90.44 Mil
These numbers are mostly from MLBTradeRumors.com, except I've gave Soriano and Putz raises because I think they're getting arbitration this year. Also Broussard and Thames' figures are guesses for what they'll get in arbitration. I think this roster would probably cost $5 million more or so than my calculations show.

Transactions:
Trade Richie Sexson to Detroit for Marcus Thames.
Fills a need for Detroit, I've heard they might move Thames. Thames will platoon w/ Ibanez in LF and can spell Snelling in RF, plus he's insurance if Snelling gets hurt. I'm assuming Thames goes to arb this year, but he still may be making the minimum.

Trade Bobby Livingston to Oakland for Antonio Perez.
Oakland has a bunch of middle infielders, they'd probably be willing to let Perez go.

Trade Julio Mateo to LA Angels for PTBNL.
Trading him to a team in the division should help us, as we would undoubtedly take him deep a couple of times. Anaheim seems like a team that might be interested in Mateo with his price tag ($1.0 mil) and track record.

Sign Barry Bonds to a 1 year $10.0 million contract with an mutual option for '08 at the same price.
I see Bonds almost strictly DHing, maybe an occasional start in the field during interleague road games.

Sign Guillermo Quiroz to a minor league contract.

Sign Vincente Padilla to a 3 year $21 million contract.

Sign Kei Igawa to a 3 year $18 million contract.
The Mariners bid 12 mil in the posting process and win the rights to negotiate a contract.

Sign Orlando Hernandez to a 1 year $4.5 million contract, with a $1.5 million bonus for reaching 150 innings.
I'm assuming that he doesn't make it to that bonus and gives the Mariners about 100 innings

Sign Mark Mulder to a 1 year $1.5 million contract, with mutual option at $6 million for '08.
Mulder had rotator cuff surgery in September and won't be ready for opening day, this may lead him to take a chance on a deal like this.

Offer Gil Meche Arbitration.
In this scenario I'm assuming he declines, and we presumably would get draft pick compensation for a Type B free agent.

Thoughts?

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Comments

Not good

That team is not very good.

First, you are loading up on two pitchers (Eaton and Lilly) who are overpriced AND injury prone. With Igawa, you are paying 17.5 million for middle to back of the rotation guys.

Second, your estimates for Lilly and Eaton are way low. People are guessing that Lilly could make $10 mil/year, and Eaton will be looking for 6-7 mil on a multi-year deal.

Third, Sexson for Monroe is a major downgrade offensively. He did well in the playoffs, but we are talking about a guy who hit .255/.301/.482 in his age 29 season. That is not good. That is below average. Those numbers are very similar to his career averages, although he hit more HRs than he typically does. Put him in Safeco, which hurts righthanded hitters, and you have a big problem. I know that everyone is talking about dealing Sexson, but the guy is a damn good hitter. Trading him for Monroe is a Carlos-Guillen-esque mistake.

Fourth, you are replacing Sexson's production with a very old player in Alou. He is a good hitter, but he turns 41 next season. The M's need a lefthanded bat, and, again, you are adding a RH power hitter who will see his numbers shrink in Safeco. Essentially, you are trading Sexson for Alou, which is a backward move. If I had to bet, I would put money on Sexson having the better year of those two.

Basically, that team would be really bad. Your acquisitions are very much like the type of moves that Pat Gillick used to make: stearing clear of star players and bringing in a lot of high paid veterans to fill out the roster. The M's have a nice core of cheap talent. Why not build around it with elite players instead of loading up on overpriced vets and expensive starting pitchers who have a lot of trouble staying healthy?

by Jerry on Oct 30, 2006 4:57 AM PST reply actions

Re

$17.5 Mil for 3 MOR starters isn't a bad value to me, plus Eaton's base salary is only $2.5 Mil. I think Igawa and Lilly are good bets to put up 4.00 ERAs or a little lower in Safeco and Igawa will only be 28 next year and has run a 8.64 K/9, 2.74 BB/9 line in Japan, he is in his prime as a pitcher. Eaton I'm not as sure about, but his contract has less risk. El Duque is an issurance policy and could end up being as good as any of the others, he put up great peripherals this year, obviously health is an issue with him as well though.
You might be right, but Loaiza got the same deal last year that I'm giving Lilly, and Eaton hasn't been fully healthy in a couple of years so I doubt he gets a multi-year deal.
I'm only viewing Monroe as a fourth outfielder, the M's need at least one right-handed OFer and can platoon and play defense for Ibanez. I see him getting about 300 ABs in 2007 mostly against LHPing.
Now replacing Sexson with Bonds

I see how you are comparing this plan to Gillick style, but I think the market this year lends to that style of roster management. There are a lot of middle tier SPers on the market and I think that will drive their price down somewhat.

by Grant H on Oct 30, 2006 12:53 PM PST up reply actions

Problems

Again, there are serious problems with your scenarios.

You have vastly underestimated the cost of a lot of those pitchers. Ted Lilly could be the most overpaid player this offseason. Think Washburn money. Eaton would be a great option at $2.5 million, but he will be looking for much more than that. Some team will give him at least 2-3 years, at $ 7 million/year or so. The only figure I think that you were close on is Bonds.

Thus, it isn't really worth discussing whether or not those pitchers are a good deal, because they won't be available for that price.

Second, the Sexson/Monroe trade is terrible. Why would the M's just give away a guy like Sexson for an overpaid 4th OFer? If the M's shop Sexson around, he will be the best 1Bman on the market. There aren't that many good hitters available this year in free agency. Given that it is looking like salaries will be totally out of control this year, why just give Sexson away? If you want to dump the contract, at least get some good prospects in return.

Even if the M's could get him for nothing, why would the M's want Craig Monroe. Putting him on the bench would be a waste. He doesn't address any of the M's offensive problems (OBP, Power, Lefthandednes). And, as a 4th OFer, he would be vastly overpaid. Why not just sign a guy like Jose Cruz Jr? He will cost dramatically less, he hits lefties just as well, and he also plays pretty good defense.

Just because Monroe made some nice plays in the playoffs doesn't make him a good move.

And again, your plan is to basically load up on overpriced, mediocre players. The M's need to do the exact opposite: sign elite players for big money, and fill in the rest of the holes with minimum salary and good value players.

Contrary to what you say about "the market this year lends to that style of roster management", those middle tier players are the ones that all the clubs are going to overpay for. Those are the ones who are going to be getting Washburn money. They are the worst value.

No thanks.

by Jerry on Oct 30, 2006 3:22 PM PST up reply actions

just when we're rid of Meche and Pineiro

you want to go and sign their equivalents. Now why would you do a thing like that? Its not a bad plan altogether, but I wouldn't expect this team to play much better than .500 next year, which is where they ought to have been this year. In other words, I don't see this as an improvement.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Oct 30, 2006 6:34 AM PST reply actions

Agree with all the above

Lilly and Eaton are going to be terrible signings.

Alou is an insane RH pull hitter. He would be a terrible fit for SafeCo Field.

Monroe brings less than nothing to the table for the Ms.

The Ms also have zero need for Antonio Perez. We have internal candidates who are better.

If you wanted a swingman, there are better and cheaper options than El Duque.

Basically, I would be ok with the Quiroz move (I think we can and should do better than that though), but every other move I highly disagree with.

by Matthew on Oct 30, 2006 7:22 AM PST reply actions

We definitely don't have better internal options

for back-up INF. Look at Perez's stats, he's put up good numbers in the minors and even in the majors while with LA. Who do we have that has that kind of track record with the bat and can play 2B/SS?

Also, who do you like better as a swingman/6th starter? El Duque ran a 8.64 K/9, 3.16 BB/9 for the Mets last year. His base contract is only $2.0 Mil

by Grant H on Oct 30, 2006 1:16 PM PST up reply actions

Actually, there was

a funny piece in the Athletics season review over at Beyond the Boxscore. Apparently, Antonio Perez this year, finished with the third worst batting average EVER for a player who got at least 110 plate appearances (.102). The two players worse than him?

Mike Jordan with a .096 BA in 1890, and Sandy Nova with a .095 BA in 1884. That's right. Some good company Perez has there.

That isn't to say that I don't think Perez has talent. I'd actually like the pickup as a backup MI. It's just comical how atrocious he was this year.

by oompagooba on Oct 30, 2006 3:20 PM PST up reply actions

Morse is a better option than Perez

Dobbs is probably a better option. LaHair is almost certainly a better option, and who knows Hunter Brown is probably a better option too.

by Matthew on Oct 30, 2006 4:43 PM PST up reply actions

On the basis of what?

None of the those players can play the middle infield positions better than Perez, most of them don't even play SS/2B. Also all of those players have a worse minor league track record than Perez with maybe the exception of LaHair. LaHair obviously does not play 2B or SS so he is not an option for that role.

by Grant H on Oct 30, 2006 5:58 PM PST up reply actions

Bloomquist is our backup MINF

WTF would you carry 2 backup 2B/SS on a 25 man roster?

by Matthew on Oct 30, 2006 9:20 PM PST up reply actions

It would be nice to have

someone in that role that could actually hit. I would use Bloomquist mostly as pinch runner and 25th man. Would probably try to get Perez a start a week, and use as a late game sub.

by Grant H on Oct 30, 2006 9:40 PM PST up reply actions

Perez, lifetime OPS: 667

Bloomquist: 641

woooooooooo, love me that upgrade.

by Matthew on Oct 30, 2006 11:31 PM PST up reply actions

I think part of it

is Willie also being a backup OF and PR, thus the need for a 2nd IF. Just my guess.

by Gomez on Oct 31, 2006 7:13 AM PST up reply actions

If you have an adequate 4th OF

then there's no need for Willie to ever patrol the OF, except maybe some starts in CF once in awhile. Furthermore, yes, you should have 2 bench players who can play the INF, but you want one of them to be a CI, the other a MI. You don't put two reserve MI on a roster with only 4 bench spots. That's just dumb.

by Matthew on Oct 31, 2006 9:01 AM PST up reply actions

My point actually was

that Willie is a modular backup, able to play both IF and OF. Thus you'd want to bring in another IF and make sure to have another OF to even things up.

by Gomez on Oct 31, 2006 9:14 AM PST up reply actions

of course,

but you want a CI, not another no-hit MI.

You get 3 spots on your bench for non-C hitters. With Willie you have your PR + OF + MI. The other two spots need to be a real 4th OF and a CI, both preferably people who can actually hit rather than another sub 700 OPS guy.

by Matthew on Oct 31, 2006 9:39 AM PST up reply actions

This plan has 5 bench spots

by Grant H on Oct 31, 2006 3:03 PM PST up reply actions

I like Baek as a 6th man

but the real point is that you are nowhere close to what these people are actually going to sign for. Duque is going to either get a multiyear offer or a 1yr offer north of 4M.

by Matthew on Oct 30, 2006 4:44 PM PST up reply actions

Igawa hasn't been posted goddamnit

and all recent reports still say that the Hanshin owners are unlikely to change that.

Marinerds - a different daily dose of baseblog.

by Deanna on Oct 30, 2006 11:19 AM PST reply actions

I read

that Kuroda is leaning towards signing with Hanshin, surely signing Kuroda would make them more likely to post Igawa, but it is true that it is not a sure thing that Igawa gets posted. I would replace Igawa with Kuroda in my plan if he doesn't get posted. Deanna do you have any GB/FB numbers for Japanese pitchers? I've heard that Kuroda is a groundballer.

by Grant H on Oct 30, 2006 12:32 PM PST up reply actions

I said this yesterday, but

Even if Hanshin signs Kuroda, posting Igawa would be like if the 2003 Red Sox said, "Great, we've signed Schilling, so we don't need Pedro Martinez anymore, let's go sell him, it's not like having two aces on the staff would really help us get those last 5 wins we need to get the championship."

I don't usually see ゴロ/飛 stats posted anywhere, though you could go cull them easily enough out of box scores if you really want to.

Marinerds - a different daily dose of baseblog.

by Deanna on Oct 30, 2006 12:52 PM PST up reply actions

Bedir...

Says that Igawa ran a 1.58 GB/FB this year, which is above the league average line he used to run. Bedir's an Igawa proponent (I am too), so he knows more than I do.

Kuroda's main arsenal is a FB/SL combo, but I wouldn't be surprised if he had more GBs than FBs. Hiroshima's home park is a launch pad, so.

Detect-O-Vision

by IcebreakerX on Oct 30, 2006 8:48 PM PST up reply actions

Out of curiosity

where'd he get the stats from? I was seriously almost considering trying to write a perl program to come up with them from the yahoo box scores. I don't have time to right now, but I bet I could work on it in a few weeks, just like I did with chomping the starting lineups.

Bedir doesn't know crap about Hanshin I thought, at least when I talked to him a few weeks ago at the USSM meet :)

As for Hiroshima -- oh man, we used to always use it as our stadium for playing the home run derby mode in Pawapuro. I think my friend's record was something like 43 straight home runs there, using Roberto Petagine...

Marinerds - a different daily dose of baseblog.

by Deanna on Oct 30, 2006 10:08 PM PST up reply actions

I'm not sure...

Might be through Garstar. I know one of the two found an advanced stat site, but I never caught word of where that site was.

Detect-O-Vision

by IcebreakerX on Oct 30, 2006 11:21 PM PST up reply actions

Sorry, but

That's a 75 win team.

by Graham MacAree on Oct 30, 2006 11:21 AM PST reply actions

Ok

Decided that I agree about Alou, Safeco will likely sap his power. I decided to go with Bonds instead, he should be a good bet for a 1.000 OPS at Safeco if he can stay healthy. I stick with my pitching decisions, the bidding on Matsuzaka seems to be getting way out of hand, and Schmidt is going to be way overpriced too. All of the starters I have picked have a nice upside albeit some significant risks but the length and size of the contracts leaves the team with a lot of flexibility. I'm thinking that Morrow/Feierabend will step in a claim a spot or two for the league minimum in the next year or two, but in the mean time these guys are the best values on the market for SP. Monroe gives us a right-handed outfielder that can platoon with Ibanez and is better defensively than Raul, also that trade free's up almost 10 mil, so its now essentially Sexson for Bonds/Monroe.

by Grant H on Oct 30, 2006 12:26 PM PST reply actions

Monroe is awful, though

by Graham MacAree on Oct 30, 2006 12:41 PM PST up reply actions

Why?

.775 OPS is more than adequate for a 4th OFer, and he will mostly be facing lefties.

by Grant H on Oct 30, 2006 1:07 PM PST up reply actions

He has a .301 OBP

'nuff said, really.

by Graham MacAree on Oct 30, 2006 1:59 PM PST up reply actions

Hm

Quiroz: hasn't anyone thought about why the Mariners suddenly demoted him after only one start? No reason was ever really given aside from getting Rivera on the big club. Rene Rivera didn't warrant a callup THAT badly. Could there perhaps be issues with his game calling that hurts the team?

Giving Lilly anything more than a couple mil is insane. He's a tomato can.

Why pay $4.25 mil for a 4th OF who has too much ability to ride the pine?

Stay FAR FAR AWAY from Eaton. He is a Mulderesque time bomb.

LOL signing Barry Bonds. He's staying in California.

The rest ain't bad.

by Gomez on Oct 30, 2006 1:20 PM PST reply actions

Quiroz

I thought they wanted him to get some playing time so he could get better

Willie Bloomquist and Mike Hargrove suck

by Mariner John on Oct 30, 2006 3:17 PM PST up reply actions

Yeah, I see Barry taking a 50% salary cut...

... when he's on the verge of breaking a MLB record and thinks he'll draw a bunch of fans to the ballpark. It's a good thing he's not an egotistical jackass or anything.

</sarcasm>

I'm pretty convinced that any team other than SF (whose fan base actually LIKES Bonds instead of considering him contemptible and his excuses regarding BALCO laughable, and whose front office and team is used to the Barry Bonds Traveling Media Circus) is going to regret signing him. Adding him to a team where field manager and general manager are basically down to their final chances to keep their jobs (and the attendant media buzzards that will show up circling over Safeco should the Mariners not start off well)... well, there's not believing in clubhouse chemistry as a major factor in winning, and then there's deliberately doing things to damage it ala Bob Whitsitt and the Trailblazers, and in my opinion Barry Bonds counts as the latter if you sign him to a contract as a Mariner.

Is he a good hitter still? Yes. Is he an All-Universe player? Well, he's not even the best player on a bad team (the Giants) any more, when you figure in counting stats: Ray Durham was the best position player on the Giants if you use VORP, and Bonds barely cracks the top 50 players in the NL. He has zero defensive value, and shouldn't play the field (ESPECIALLY in a park like Safeco with wide open spaces, and in a league where he's not familiar with the parks and players). I don't think his stats will get BETTER going to another league and getting another year older, and it's not like Pac Bell really depressed his stats,. so the best case scenario is he doesn't tank- the worst case scenario becomes being overmatched by a lot of pitchers instead of by really good heat, or just getting injured and becoming a waste of salary.

No sign. I think if he comes back, it's as a Giant, for one year. And I'm not sold on him coming back.

As for the other moves- I think Lilly and Eaton will pull down more than you think, because the leagues full of Crazy Money thanks to the new collective bargaining agreement.

And on that topic:

Pitcher A's xFIPs, 2004-2006
5.06, 5.01, 5.35

Pitcher B's xFIPS, 2004-2006
4.98, 5.02, 4.77

Pitcher C's xFIPS, 2004-2006
5.10, 5.50, 4.79

Pitcher A is Jarrod Washburn. Pitcher B is Ted Lilly. Pitcher C is Gil Meche. Really, Lilly's not any more deserving of longterm deals than Washburn is, and Meche pitched just as well last year as Lilly has his last few years, and just hit his peak (28), whereas Lilly's on the other side of 30. In other words, you can make a case that Meche will outpitch Lilly last year- but since we're all sick of Meche's craptasticness we're all eager to bring in NEW crappy pitchers.

Eaton's not really more impressive- two thirds of a good xFIP (4.25) in 2005, his peripheral stats were pretty lousy in 2006. And all 3 of these FAs are flyball finesse pitchers. I think having a staff that's primarily composed of flyball Ps outside of Felix is bad- I'd rather go dumpster diving for guys like Rodrigo Lopez:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/index.php?playerId=150&firstName=Rodrigo&l astName=Lopez

rather than sign those two.

by eponymous coward on Oct 30, 2006 2:00 PM PST reply actions

Yeah

I think I may have gone about this the wrong way. I think I like Lilly more than I should because he strikes out nearly 8.0 per nine. His command is poor and he is prone to the long ball. I guess there's really not that much difference between him and Rodrigo Lopez when it comes to what we should expect in '07. SP is where the market is deepest this year and I was trying to take advantage of that, but Lilly is probably not worth that much.

by Grant H on Oct 30, 2006 5:53 PM PST up reply actions