Win Expectancy Charts - new application
Hi LL,
Over at Beyond the Boxscore I've posted a new application for Win Expectancy Charts. I even throw bone to LL for pioneering the widespread use of these charts.
Here's a preview:
"You're Mike Scioscia (keep reading, I promise it gets better), it's the bottom of the ninth and you're trailing by one run at home. Vlad Guerrero works a walk and Garret Anderson singles up the middle, and now you have runners on first and second with Darin Erstad coming to the plate. Most managers would be frozen with horror at the the thought of Rex Hudler attempting to analyze your moves, but you're Mickey Scioscia, former manager of the year, and you wonder: do I let Darin Erstad swing away and risk the double play? Or do I recognize Erstad's bat-handling abilites and call for the sacrifice bunt?
You have been given a fortune (the expected runs of this situation) to invest. Since you understand the intricacies of Moneyball, you pull out your Dell Inspiron 1150 and, after Bud Black points out the power button, make a little Excel Spreadsheet: "
To read the rest, click here.
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Awesome
Very nice.
Now if only we could perfect those success/fail/error estimates for bunt attempts...
by Jeff Sullivan on Sep 6, 2005 9:29 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, yeah
...but as a first pass, it's got promise. Feel free to play with it as a tool (just be sure to link back to my original article).












