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AL West Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Los Angeles
|
97 | 65 | .598 | 0 | Lost 1 |
|
Texas
|
87 | 75 | .537 | 10 | Lost 2 |
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Seattle
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85 | 77 | .524 | 12 | Won 2 |
|
Oakland
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75 | 87 | .462 | 22 | Lost 7 |
(updated 11.24.2009 at 9:02 PM PST)
On Bringing Back Russell Branyan
by Jeff on Nov 24, 2009 6:19 PM PST
in Miscellaneous
25 comments
I'll be honest with you - since the end of the season, I've considered the return of Russell Branyan in 2010 all but an inevitability. He's a player that fits here, filling a need and adding a lot to the lineup, and this being the first team to really give him a chance to play every day, it's felt like a situation with, for all intents and purposes, one possible outcome. Any thoughts I've had about how next year's Mariner team is going to fare have pretty much all included Branyan somewhere in the middle of the order.
Being that he's now a free agent who's received calls from a handful of other teams, though, we might as well take this opportunity to discuss the pros and cons of bringing Branyan back, because this is a decision around which a good chunk of the offseason will have to be built.
The biggest pro, and the main reason the team would like to have Branyan back, is the obvious one - he's a good hitter. Though he can take a walk and hit for a little more contact than he used to, Branyan's strength is his...strength...and it was that power that allowed him to conquer Safeco Field and match guys like Maggio Ordonez and Bobby Abreu in productivity. He was arguably the best bat on the team, he wasn't in any way exposed by the regular playing time, and this is a roster that's short on thump. Branyan would serve a major purpose.
Outside of his ability, Branyan would also likely be pretty cheap. I don't know what his demands are, but as a soon-to-be 34 year old who's never attracted a lot of attention from people that don't live in basements, Branyan could re-sign and still leave the team with a lot of financial flexibility to put towards improving the rotation or first base or third base or somewhere. If the Mariners want 2010 to be a competitive season, they need to spend what money they have this winter wisely, and Branyan could help a lot for a reasonable sum.
Finally, Branyan's familiar. He was here last year, he's in tight with the front office, he gets along with his coaches and teammates...this is where Branyan wants to be, and though quantitation is a futile exercise, there has to be some small benefit to signing a guy you can count on to be happy, to be a positive influence. Roster turnover can be a very good thing, but it is not a very good thing on its own.
Those are the positives. Those are the reasons the front office is probably planning on having Branyan come back. You might have noticed that he has yet to sign a contract, though. And that's because, while Branyan's a fine player, he comes with some risks that would give pause to any GM. Branyan may want two years, but there's a reason Zduriencik has yet to give them.
Branyan is about to turn 34. He's about to turn 34, and though no one's particularly concerned that Ichiro just turned 36, Branyan is an "old" 34, in that he isn't known for his conditioning or athleticism. Branyan's posted eight triples and 13 stolen bases in 882 Major League games. He's had old player skills since the day he picked up a bat, and it's those sorts of guys - guys like Ben Grieve and Jeremy Giambi - who tend to age pretty quick. It's not like this is a new phenomenon in Seattle, and one needs only recall Richie Sexson at age 32 to know that Branyan's immediate future is hardly guaranteed. A player like Branyan could decline at any moment, and Branyan can't afford much of a decline if he wants to hang on to his career.
It would be one thing if Branyan were a "clean" 34, but last year he developed a bad back down the stretch that prematurely ended his season. The back thing is an issue for two reasons. For one, it probably has a negative effect on his performance. We saw Branyan struggle when he tried to play through the discomfort, batting just .184 in his final 190 ABs, and while a lot of that was driven by BABIP, it's not like it would be outlandish to suggest that back pain could hurt a guy's productivity at the plate. Branyan's herniated disc is a red flag. A return of the discomfort could really do a number on his performance.
And the second reason is that it limits Zduriencik's flexibility. A year ago, Branyan was brought in to play first base, and that's what he did, but now that the health of his back is a question, Zduriencik would have to account for that by bringing in someone capable of playing the field to fill the other hole and pushing Branyan to DH. You don't want to risk his health by forcing him to play a defensive position very much. The Mariners have openings at both 1B and DH, but if they re-sign Branyan, then that probably takes them out of the running for guys like Jim Thome, Hideki Matsui, and Vladimir Guerrero, because with Griffey's old ass already on the roster, you can't keep collecting guys that can't play the field. That's just a logistical nightmare. If the M's bring back Branyan, then they'll need the other addition to be capable of playing defense.
Russell Branyan is a fine player who can do some extraordinary things, and the Mariners need some guys with his kind of bat. That said, while Branyan's return still carries this air of seeming inevitability, he does come with some downsides, both visible and less so, the recognition of which has brought us to where we are today. We'll see where we go from here, but in the meantime, you can expect to hear the M's linked to just about as many options as possible, because this is not a decision they'll want to make without doing all of their homework.
25 comments | 0 recs |
Faces
by Jeff on Nov 24, 2009 3:28 PM PST
in Faces
7 comments
Ben Ford looks like he's mad at the photographer for making him take off his hat.
7 comments | 1 recs
Tuesday Nothing Post
by Jeff on Nov 24, 2009 3:15 PM PST
in Miscellaneous
18 comments
- It's easy to be interesting, and it's easy to be reasonable, but it isn't easy to be interesting and reasonable, and when that gets exhausting, sometimes I need to take a break. There will be more breaks. If you prefer non-stop baseball stimulation 24 hours a day, feel free to go somewhere else, because I'm not in this for the traffic.
- A lot of people want me to post more about rumors. A rumor this afternoon from Fox Sports suggests that the Mariners could be interested in Casey Kotchman as a 1B should he be non-tendered by Boston. If Casey Kotchman were someone that doesn't suck, then Fox Sports would be on to something.
- My favorite thing from that article is that both the Phillies and Dodgers are after Juan Castro. Juan Castro turns 38 next June and, rather appropriately, has a career wOBA 38 points below Miguel Cairo. He's played 484 games since 2004 and, over that span, has posted a negative WAR. I don't know what's more surprising: that two of the best teams in the National League are chasing Juan Castro, or that I'd apparently visited Juan Castro's Fangraphs page sometime before today.
Update: oh yeah, that article also links the M's to Nick Johnson. Well no shit.
18 comments | 0 recs |
Dustin Ackley, the 2nd baseman?
by Matthew on Nov 20, 2009 5:11 PM PST
in Miscellaneous
252 comments
The idea is not new, but this is the first that I can recall it being seriously talked about. According to Shannon Drayer the Mariners are going to give Dustin Ackley some reps at second base. Here's a quick rundown of some pros and cons:
PROS
- Ackley at second base clears the potential outfield logjam
- Second base is still a premium defensive position
- Second base is a hard position to find left-handed offense
- Assuming Ackley would be a plus OFer is probably misguided
CONS
- Transitioning to a new position could stunt Ackley's development
- The outfield logjam with Michael Saunders, Franklin Gutierrez and Ichiro was only a potential one. It's not like all four were bleeding for Major League playing time in 2010
- Second base is less valuable than center field
- There's no guarantee that Ackley can be a quality defensive second baseman and if he bombs there, the team will need to move him again.
For now, I am going to reserve judgment until we get further details on just what "working out at 2nd base" entails, how the rest of the offseason goes and what level (and position) Ackley begins the 2010 Minor League season at. Also, other things might happen. Rest assured though, this is probably going to be talked about a lot. Regardless of what actually happens, the subject of the outfield's future has already been a hot topic to discuss.
252 comments | 0 recs |
Reaction Chronology
by Jeff on Nov 20, 2009 2:39 PM PST
in Transactions
54 comments
Chris Jakubauskas claimed by Pirates
- Huh
- Wait, why?
- I guess Jak wasn't very good
- He's over his head as a starter and just a standard replaceable long reliever. He belongs in the NL
- Guess this opens the door a little wider for someone like Nick Hill, and increases Carlos Silva's chances of sticking as a long guy
-
- But what's the point of clearing space when you already have so much space?
- Whatever
Robert Manuel claimed by Red Sox
- Whatever
Peculiar moves, both of them, but it's not like we gave away a Jason Vargas or a Ryan Langerhans (yet). As impersonal as it may be to reduce players to a numerical set of projections, neither Jak nor Manuel really mattered, and neither will likely be missed. Best wishes to the Jakubaustrich anyway, as if nothing else he's going somewhere where he has a few friends. Or acquaintances. Or just people he knows kind of. If the National League can turn Ronny :(edeno's frown upside-down, it can work for anyone.
Update: Manuel, of course, can go straight to hell, and take the rest of his new teammates with him
54 comments | 0 recs |
Jakubauskas Claimed
by Matthew on Nov 20, 2009 2:06 PM PST
in Transactions
77 comments
Reports surfacing that Chris Jakubauskas has been claimed off waivers by the Pittsburgh Pirates. Jakubauskas was a decent pitcher for us this season coming in roughly average. He's not a big loss.
And here's the official press release link.
77 comments | 0 recs |
Thursday Bullet Points
by Jeff on Nov 19, 2009 10:11 PM PST
in Miscellaneous
94 comments
- The hot rumor of the day is that the M's and Tigers have been talking about a three-team deal involving Brandon Morrow and Edwin Jackson. I'm only bringing this one up because the M's have been linked to Jackson before, so I can believe in their possible interest. That said:
(1) Jackson isn't very good. Don't believe the ERA. He took a step forward, to be sure, as he's cut his walks in three straight years, but he's still a flyball guy with come-and-go command and stuff that doesn't get as many strikeouts as you'd expect, and when you put it all together, he's (maybe) a #3 with upside. Ignore anyone that focuses on his first half while ignoring his second. That isn't how these things work. Nor is it reasonable to focus on Jackson's 2009 while ignoring his prior track record. Pitchers develop differently than hitters, to be sure, but they're still prone to regression from presumed breakthroughs, as we saw from guys like Edinson Volquez, Ervin Santana, and John Danks. So just because Jackson improved in 2009 doesn't mean he's necessarily going to sustain or continue that improvement going forward. You have to play the odds. Plus the guy he was in 2009 wasn't terrific in the first place.
(2) We have no idea if, in this scenario, Jackson would be coming to us anyway.
I don't know if this rumor has legs. As is the case with every rumor that comes up around this time of year, my conclusion is that, yeah, it could happen, but it probably won't. - You know what's really unfunny? Any joke about the post-game spread. For some reason, people love to make these jokes. They make them all the time. And they're always terrible. Knock it off.
- Free agency is upon us, and as such, all 30 teams are free to negotiate with Russell Branyan. If you're someone that really wants him back, I wouldn't be concerned. If you're someone that really doesn't want him back, I wouldn't get excited. Branyan is one of Z's guys, and though nothing in the offseason is guaranteed, I would be really, really surprised if Branyan weren't back as next year's 1B/DH. Branyan's going to look at the market, but once he realizes that no one's offering huge money for an aging slugger with a bad back, I'd expect him and Z to agree to terms. If I made 100 different roster predictions for the 2010 Mariners, something like 97 of them would involve Russell Branyan.
- Dave wrote about the Ryan Doumit possibility last night. A lot of people are trying to link the M's to John Lackey. You shouldn't listen to them. You should probably listen to Dave. If I tried to rank rumors on a five-point scale from really likely (1) to really unlikely (5), Doumit would probably rank a 2. The Jackson stuff would be a 3 or a 4.
94 comments | 0 recs |
Dear Media: This Isn't Helping
by Jeff on Nov 19, 2009 8:15 PM PST
in Miscellaneous
20 comments
From the LA Times.
Article headline: Dodgers won't be pursuing John Lackey
Article content:
[LA's team president] said that would rule out Lackey "unless there is an effective way to make that kind of deal."
In other words, the Dodgers won't try to sign John Lackey unless it makes sense for them, and unless they can get him at what they perceive to be a fair and decent deal.
So, the Dodgers won't do anything that they perceive as being "outlandish" and irresponsible.
This is a quote that says nothing. Nothing at all. It's a team president saying the team won't do something the team thinks is stupid. Mannion might as well have said "We can't get him, unless we can." And yet someone at the Times thought this was enough to support such a concrete, assertive headline.
This isn't a big issue on its own or anything. John Lackey almost certainly will not be going to LA. It's just symptomatic of what I hate most about this time of the year - people making far too much out of far too little. I get it. Rumors are fun. People like to talk about roster change. But this business of trying to make little things out to be bigger than they are really soaks my socks. Quit it. Quit it. Just quit it. It sucks. Be honest.
20 comments | 0 recs |
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