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BlogsAL West Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Los Angeles
|
43 | 34 | .558 | 0 | Won 1 |
|
Texas
|
42 | 35 | .545 | 1 | Won 2 |
|
Seattle
|
41 | 38 | .518 | 3 | Won 2 |
|
Oakland
|
33 | 45 | .423 | 10.5 | Lost 1 |
(updated 7.3.2009 at 7:23 PM PDT)
| Final - 7.3.2009 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Seattle Mariners
|
0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 0 |
|
Boston Red Sox
|
2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 0 |
7/3: Open Game Thread Part 2
by Matthew
on Jul 3, 2009 6:15 PM PDT
in Game Threads
617 comments
Please be good, Shawn.
617 comments | 0 recs
7/3: Open Game Thread
by Jeff
on Jul 3, 2009 3:15 PM PDT
in Game Threads
847 comments
Tim Wakefield looks like a man who just realized that he's going up against King Felix. And Ryan Langerhans maybe. Ryan Langerhans!
I'm out of town and not expecting to write this weekend, but don't let that diminish your enthusiasm. A decent showing in Boston and we will have had ourselves a damn solid voyage through a woodchipper of a road trip. Do it, Felix. After yesterday's miracle of a win, I'm feeling reinvigorated.
847 comments | 0 recs
Series Preview: Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox
by Matthew
on Jul 3, 2009 11:35 AM PDT
in Series Previews
70 comments
Seattle: 40-38
Boston: 48-30
SUMMARY
| MARINERS | RED SOX |
EDGE | |
| HITTING (wOBA) |
-45.3 (28th) |
29.4 (5th) | BOS |
| FIELDING (UZR) |
22.6 (5th) |
-17.8 (26th) | SEA |
| ROTATION (pRAA) |
5.4 (14th) | 19.1 (10th) | BOS |
| BULLPEN (pRAA) |
-13.2 (26th) | 14.3 (4th) | BOS |
| OVERALL(RAA) |
-30.5 | 45.0 | Boston |
Boston is a really good team at everything but fielding.
I know we lost the series to the Yanks, but we did not lose badly, and really, as long as do not get swept by Boston, I am declaring this road trip a success. 4-5 against the three best teams in baseball, on the road? That is fine. Anything else is gravy.
Of course, the first game gives us that best chance, with Felix on the bump. I am not that afraid of Brad Penny, but I am afraid of Garrett Olson against the Red Sox offense. Ditto Morrow, and facing Lester is not a great situation either. Lose tonight and I will get worried about a sweep. Win tonight and there is nothing left but a ride on the Good Times slip'n'slide of grooviness.
GAMES
Game 1: Felix Hernandez vs. Tim Wakefield
Game 2: Garrett Olson* vs. Brad Penny
Game 3: Brandon Morrow vs. Jon Lester*
Watching this team hit against Wakefield should hopefully be a spectacle of some nature. Speaking of, what is there to say about him? Interestingly, while his tRA has remained stable, his 2009 is a major outlier in terms of pitch results. Always around the 35% mark in ball% and a shade under 9% in missed bats, Wakefield is at 38% and 6% this season. As you would guess, the strikeouts are down and the walks are up. In fact, the only thing keeping his tRA low is a flukey low home run rate.
Brad Penny is having some moderate success this year, despite me thinking that he has been terrible. His fastball velocity has rebounded to pre-injury levels and some of his control has returned, though his swinging strike rate remains mediocre. Penny is a fastball-curveball guy almost exclusively.
Jon Lester has been really good this year, his fastball velocity is up over a mile per hour and his swinging strike rate eclipsing 10% for the first time. He has also maintained his strong ground ball rates. A poor home run rate and .336 BABIP is making him look more human than he has pitched.
70 comments
| 0 recs
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40-38, Chart
by Jeff
on Jul 2, 2009 9:27 PM PDT
in Game Recaps
70 comments
Biggest Contribution: Mark Lowe, +21.4%
Biggest Suckfest: Ronny :(edeno, -9.3%
Most Important AB: Ichiro double, +14.3%
Most Important Pitch: Matsui homer, -13.8%
Total Contribution by Pitcher(s): +32.4%
Total Contribution by Lineup: +15.2%
Total Contribution by Opposition: +2.4%
(What is this chart?)
70 comments
| 0 recs
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7/2: Open Game Thread
by Jeff
on Jul 2, 2009 3:05 PM PDT
in Game Threads
1215 comments
Jason Vargas looks like a guy you've been chasing on foot for twenty minutes but just when you run him into an alley and think you have him cornered, he turns around, pulls a blade out of his pocket, and gives you the "what now?" face. CC Sabathia looks like he sees muffins. Why did the Yankees get the angelic white backdrop while the Mariners got stuck with Vicente-Padilla's-bedroom black?
1215 comments | 0 recs
Report Card: Position Players, June
by Matthew
on Jul 2, 2009 8:36 AM PDT
in Report Cards
59 comments
Record: 15-10, 39-37 overall
Position: 3rd, 3.5 games back of Anaheim
PECOTA Playoff Odds: 23.0% (+9%)
CoolStandings Odds: 14.9% (+10%)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DEFENSE
Source: FanGraphs. Standard caveats that this is only one measurement and a very small sample.
Our third month, and our third month with a new division leader. If you are holding out hope that Oakland is leading come August 1st, I have a bridge to sell you.
The Mariners defense was outstanding in April, when they racked up a +7.3 UZR. They slowed down to a +3.4 figure in May, leaving them at +10.7 total, a very good number. Their UZR for the month of June was 12.1! They key difference was a decided lack of black holes dragging down the team total. Jose Lopez and Yuniesky Betancourt actually both turned in positive months! A feat so outrageous I had to put it in font as dark as Yuni.
Once again, Franklin Gutierrez continued to be a man beast with a massive 5.5 Range rating. For a center fielder to get a Range that high is just mind boggling. That man covers more prime real estate than a Kirkland strip mall. Endy Chavez also busted out in a big way, with a team-leading 5.3 UZR right up to the point where his knee went kablooey. Endy compiled that 5.3 figure in 70 innings. 70 innings! That is about eight games worth. During June, Endy's glove alone was 1.5 runs above average per game. He will be missed. At least, until we finally get to see Ryan Langerhans play dammit.
Speaking of injuries, it is a wonder to think how good the team would have looked had Adrian Beltre had a more typical Beltre month instead of a rather big outlier. Not that it was that surprising, any man would be hard pressed to maintain a +4.5 UZR/month pace at third pace, even a man such as Beltre. Not to mention doing so with stabbing pain in his shoulder.
GRADE: A+
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HITTING
Click for full size. 2009 Mariners wOBA for June 2009. Source StatCorner.com
Griffey rebounds to a useful June. He still cannot hit for average, as his horrible line drive rate and BABIP (not unlucky) indicate, but he still finds ways to put the ball over the fence and poke some doubles that used to be home runs. His patience at the plate remained one of the best on the team and his resulting 1:1 strikeout to walk ratio helped propel him to an above average wOBA for the month.
I wrote last time that Adrian Beltre had a lower home run per fly ball rate than Mike Sweeney during May. Well, it happened again in June. Luckily, Beltre did smack eight doubles and a plethora of singles and his resulting .319/.347/.468 line was well above league average. Mike Sweeney also did not embarrass himself.
Branyan in May: .317/.412/.614 and 31 strikeouts to 17 walks. Branyan in June: .265/.376/.590 with 28 strikeouts to 16 walks. The inflated BABIP disappeared in June (.286) and Branyan simply responded by growing a longer penis and smacking one out of every five balls he put in the air (whether fly, line or pop up variety) over the wall. He even hit a triple! I would love for you to stick around Branyan because you have become one of my favorite players ever.
I have a fear that Chris Woodward, who sucks, is going to have a decent enough month of July while the Mariners fiddle about, and become the new Mike Morse, championed by those that ignore the tenets of statistical analysis. I guess there are worse things that could happen, like him sucking and the team tanking. Can we just find a real third baseman please?
Endy's bat will not be missed. More (read: some) Ryan Langerhans please!
44 hits, including nine for extra bases and two triples, for Ichiro and six walks gave him a .407/.439/.528 line in June, bettering his .377/.417/.515 May. The man could hit .400 in 2012 and I would not be surprised. Or he could lose his eye for bat control and be finished by 2011 and I would not be that surprised either. I do not know how to put a standard deviation on Ichiro and I have long since stopped caring. Just sit back and enjoy.
Remember how much Jeff Clement sucked at hitting in Seattle last year? Well, his .296 wOBA that year would be worth 27 more runs than Rob Johnson's current season line of .245. I do not care if Rob Johnson gets in his catcher's gear and fluffs up the entire pitching staff before each game to get them relaxed, Jeff Clement is more valuable in the measurable qualities of baseball.
Four home runs from Gutierrez gave him one of the higher home run per fly ball rates on the team. There is that power we have been hoping to see. Four other extra base hits and a solid .300 average gave Guti a .513 slugging on the month. Combined with his natural patience, his June wOBA of .380 was the third highest amongst regulars. Who else has to pinch themselves a couple times a day to remember that no, we do get to watch him and Ichiro in the outfield for the next four years, at least?
Jose Lopez, five home runs! :) His .592 slugging percentage was tops on the team in June. Even higher than Branyan's. One walk. :( His .325 OBP was sadly nowhere near the low on the team. Thank you Ronny Cedeno and your .204 OBP, which was actually higher than your slugging of .167.
In the end, it was not actually a great month. I have focused a bit on the positive, but Yuni, our two catchers and Ronny Cedeno were just terrible and wiped away the positives of everyone else. The team ended June with a .330 wOBA, around .335 after park-adjustments. That is a touch below average.
GRADE: C
59 comments
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39-38, Game Notes
by Jeff
on Jul 1, 2009 9:11 PM PDT
in Game Recaps
28 comments
Yesterday we faced terrible odds and lost by three. Today we faced better odds and lost by two. In neither game did the Mariners lead. In both games were the Mariners able to force a few ties. It's weird, then, that while last night's loss felt like getting stabbed in that fleshy part of the jaw under the chin, today's kind of rolled off my back. Both of them were equally bad. It's just, I dunno, I guess once you prepare yourself for devastation, it doesn't really bother you as much when things go as you feared. Nothing compares to the initial blow. If the Mariners want to keep tearing me down, first they'll have to build me back up.
- A good start for Washburn against a difficult lineup. Though he only threw 60% of his pitches for strikes, you get the feeling with Washburn that his misses off the plate are a little more deliberate than Morrow's or the bullpen's. He pitched a strong game, and while he gave up the four runs, it's hard to be disappointed with his performance in Yankee Stadium. For the second consecutive start he walked but one batter while striking out six - five of them righties - and the home run that Damon hit in the third was a ballpark home run that doesn't leave a lot of other places. Combine all that with his ten swinging strikes and you have to feel pretty good that Washburn has put his issues behind him and gotten back on track. Whether the team goes on to contend or try to sell, these were seven encouraging innings. It's hard to be mad at someone for getting burned by Alex Rodriguez.
- Today we got to witness the famed Yankee Stadium Effect. As I already mentioned, Damon's was a lucky shot, and Griffey's tying homer in the sixth was even more improbable. Not because it was off a good lefty, but because it's hard to imagine that thing leaving in pretty much any other ballpark. I don't mean to take away from Griffey - he got out in front of a fastball and pulled a sizzling line drive - but that was a double that got him four bases. It's like playing in a cooler Texas.
Johnny Damon, by the way, seems to enjoy the new stadium so much that he cheats on his wife with it. Today's shot was his eleventh at home against four on the road in an equal number of plate appearances. Damon isn't a power hitter. Over the past season and a half, he's only hit one ball further than 400 feet. And yet here he is on the home run leaderboard, one behind Miguel Cabrera and Evan Longoria. I wonder what it would be like to follow baseball and not know about park factors. - Ronny :(edeno is actually swinging the bat a little better of late. He hit a couple balls sharply in LA, he hit that 413! foot homer last night, and twice today he hit reasonably deep fly balls to right and center fields. Whether or not that actually means anything, I'm not sure - :(edeno's OPS in June was lower than Ichiro's batting average - but it does provide a little bit of promise for a guy who up until quite recently was looking lost. Now is the time for Ronny to try and salvage his season. We already know Wak likes his energy on defense, so if he can start chipping in with a few hits here and there, that could go a long way towards erasing the memory of his humiliating first half.
- The front page article on Yahoo! MLB earlier this afternoon was about Alex Rodriguez's diminished production. A-Rod's contact rate is its best in more than a decade, he's chasing fewer balls out of the strike zone than ever before, his line drive rate is healthy, and a quarter of his fly balls have left the yard. You know what A-Rod's problem is? A .215 BABIP. He's fine. He's absolutely fine. He's just been unlucky. Given how much the media loves to talk about everything that's going on with the Yankees, you'd think they'd bother to learn a little something about player evaluation.
- Every year, the Yankees seem to have one nobody position player they keep around just so they can tell other front offices "see, we're all playing the same game." It tends to be a utility guy or a backup catcher. This year's designated Yankee Who Doesn't Belong is Cody Ransom. It's like a gorilla living with people and trying to blend in by wearing a hat.
- The essence of being a sports fan is hope. In order for anything to be worth a sports fan's time, it has to give him some element of hope. Some little chance that things could work out. One of the things that's so daunting about playing the Yankees, then, is that Mariano Rivera doesn't offer any hope. When you're playing New York, you really do feel like you need to have a lead or a tie through eight innings, because Rivera carries with him this certain air of invincibility. He is flawed. Obviously. Rivera will have some games where he gives up hits and blows a save. But every hit and every run you score against him feels like a minor miracle. When you're losing to, say, the Orioles or the Angels, you can clasp your hands together and pray that you get some good swings against Sherrill or Fuentes. Games against most closers don't feel over until they're over. Games against Rivera, though, feel over the instant he's called. At no point in either of these last two nights did I so much as entertain the possibility of putting a rally together in the ninth. It simply seemed to me that it couldn't be done.
Kudos to Rivera for being so very dominant for so very long. Here's to one Yankee of whom I'd never have a bad thing to say.
Jason Vargas and CC Sabathia tomorrow at 4:05. Win and no one remembers the first two losses, but lose and the Dodgers series becomes a distant memory. I am afraid.
28 comments
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Trade Rumor Of The Day*
by Jeff
on Jul 1, 2009 7:31 PM PDT
in Miscellaneous
44 comments
*there will not be a new rumor every day
From Jon Paul Morosi:
The Mariners, running a close third in the American League West, will probably wait about two weeks before moving definitively on the trade market.Already, though, they have engaged in preliminary discussions with the Padres about third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff, according to one source with knowledge of the talks.
The person added that the chances for a deal — at this point, at least — are not strong. But San Diego officials have made clear to other clubs that Kouzmanoff is available.
I don't advise getting your hopes up (or down, depending on your perspective) quite yet, but with the Mariners in desperate need of a third baseman and the Padres being out of the race, it shouldn't come as a surprise that the teams have talked to each other. Kouzmanoff's actually a pretty obvious target when you really think about things, and though I should caution that the odds are probably 90-95% that nothing like this ever happens, he's a player to think about that could help us both now and over the next few years. Don't be deterred by his unimpressive numbers - Petco just kills him, and the reality is that he's a solidly average to above-average regular who'd fill a big hole. Assuming a reasonable price, I'd be happy to have him. As much as I'd like to have Beltre come back, that's probably not in the cards.
So there you go. A little something to take your mind off the loss.
44 comments
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