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AL West Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Los Angeles
|
97 | 65 | .598 | 0 | Lost 1 |
|
Texas
|
87 | 75 | .537 | 10 | Lost 2 |
|
Seattle
|
85 | 77 | .524 | 12 | Won 2 |
|
Oakland
|
75 | 87 | .462 | 22 | Lost 7 |
(updated 2.8.2010 at 3:41 PM PST)
Your Recommended Daily Intake of Fact
by Matthew on Feb 6, 2010 5:29 PM PST
in The More You Know
81 comments
All numbers presented herein are based off 2009 American League totals, but I do not expect them to differ much in previous years or in the National League.
Pitchers with high ground ball rates are good. Like Felix! Felix is good. You should prefer ground balls to fly balls. Fly balls are bad. The standard rationale goes like this: home runs allowed per fly ball is a stat that does not appear to be under much control by the pitcher and since ground balls never leave the yard, the more balls you keep out of the air, the fewer home runs you allow. Not allowing home runs is good.
Some people counter that argument with the fact that ground balls go for a hit more often than fly balls. While true, the difference between the two is vastly overstated. Strictly between ground balls and fly balls (excluding bunts, home runs, line drives and infield flies) ground balls go for a hit about 3% more often. That is not much.
It is even less once you factor in the salient facts that ground balls become double plays far more often, non ground-balls see a higher slugging percentage allowed on average and that excluding line drives is a misleading distinction. You can read this all and just believe it, but how about some handy numbers to give you some nice foundation support when you go to convince others?
The average ground ball (including bunts) generated 0.04 runs and 0.80 outs
The average non-ground ball (fly balls, line drives, pop ups) generated 0.23 runs and 0.62 outs
On a runs per out basis, balls in the air generate almost 7.5 times as much offense as balls on the ground do.
81 comments | 7 recs |
Fifth Starter Rundown
by Matthew on Feb 6, 2010 3:00 PM PST
in The More You Know
152 comments
In between the time from the start of the season until Erik Bedard is healthy, the Mariners will need to run out a starter aside from Felix, Lee, Snell or Hyphen. Who might that person be? There are seven possible names internally that I am looking at in this post: Doug Fister, Nick Hill, Yusmeiro Petit (whoops, not any more!), Luke French, Garrett Olson, Ryan Feierabend and Jason Vargas. There is also the possibility of another starter added via trade or free agency, though those seem like slim odds at this point.
The aim of this post is to look at the seven pitchers listed above and profile them. I am not going to attempt to pass confident judgment on which of the seven should be anointed into the rotation. The work put in by each over the winter is going to be vitally important along with their varying rates of health and progress come Spring Training. I am also disregarding the contract situations, re: options remaining. Think of this post as a reference chart.
I go into some greater detail below, though not as expansive as Jeff did on Nick Hill earlier, but up front I decided to rate each pitcher on the 20-80 scouting scale in what I feel is the three main categories for pitching success. These are completely subjective.
| Fister | Hill* | Petit^ | French | Olson | Vargas | Feierabend | |
| Throws Strikes | 65 | 50 | 60 | 52 | 40 | 45 | 45 |
| Misses Bats | 43 | 55 | 60 | 45 | 45 | 60 | 50 |
| Ground Balls | 45 | 60 | 30 | 45 | 45 | 40 | 40 |
Read on for some blurbs about each player.
152 comments | 2 recs |
Bedard Deal Official
by Jeff Sullivan on Feb 6, 2010 10:46 AM PST
in Transactions
77 comments
Pretty cool that this is probably the last post I'll write before I move. I love this post.
Erik Bedard passed his physical, which shouldn't come as a surprise, because had the Mariners figured his shoulder was still messed up, they wouldn't have tried to sign him. The end result is that he's officially signed on to a $1.5m base contract for 2010 with incentives coming out the ass that could push it all the way up to $8.5m. There's also an $8m mutual option for 2011, but mutual options never get exercised, because if the player is bad the team won't pick it up, and if the player is good the player won't pick it up. I'm not entirely sure why mutual options even exist.
Yusmeiro Petit is the guy that's been knocked off the 40-man to make room. As Dave already said:
If you’re wondering, they can’t put Bedard on the 60 day DL until the end of spring training, so for now, he’ll use up a 40-man roster spot. He’ll be DL’ed before the season starts, though, so if the team needs to add a non-roster player (like Josh Bard) to the team, they’ll have Bedard’s spot to do so.
Petit remains a mildly interesting starter candidate, but with names like Jason Vargas, Doug Fister, Ryan Feierabend, Garrett Olson, and Luke French already on the 40-man roster, he was kind of redundant. Plus, Nick Hill. Petit's a decent starter who'd be of more value somewhere else.
Overall, this is a surprising move that for months I never expected. As January rolled along and the Mariners kept looking for another arm, though, Bedard started to become a more realistic option, and now I couldn't really be happier with the direction they've gone. This probably does take the M's off the market for anyone else, especially if they think Bedard's going to hit some of his incentive clauses, but I suppose they could always try to sign Jarrod Washburn with loose change from the sofa. I just wouldn't count on it. The payroll, I imagine, is just about maxed out.
Through two years as a Mariner, Erik Bedard has managed a pair of half-seasons. A third would just be peaches. While I implore you to remain reasonable about your expectations, this could be pretty cool.
77 comments | 0 recs |
AL West Projection Update
by Matthew on Feb 5, 2010 3:00 PM PST
in The More You Know
140 comments
It's been a month and more than a couple moves have transpired since the last update.
ANGELS:
-Signed Joel Pineiro, 5th SP WAR increased to 2.5.
-Maicer Izturis projection increased to 2.5 WAR.
-Torii Hunter projection dropped to 3.0 WAR.
-Joe Saunders projection dropped to 1.5 WAR.
OAKLAND:
-Traded for Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B WAR increased to 2.5.
-Signed Ben Sheets, 5th SP WAR increased to 2.5.
-Dallas Braden projection increased to 2.5.
-Signed Gabe Gross, LF WAR increased to 1.5.
SEATTLE:
-Signed Ryan Garko, 1B WAR increased to 1.5 in anticipated timeshare with Casey Kotchman.
-Signed Eric Byrnes, LF WAR increased to 1.5 in anticipated timeshare with Ryan Langerhans and Milton Bradley.
-Signed Erik Bedard, 5th SP WAR increased to 1.5 in anticipated timeshare with Jason Vargas.
TEXAS:
-Catcher WAR projection increased to 2.0.
-Ian Kinsler projection increased to 4.25.
-Michael Young projection increased to 3.25.
-Nelson Cruz projection decreased to 3.0.
-Rich Harden projection decreased to 2.5.
-3rd SP WAR projection (Holland + Feliz share) decreased to 2.5.
-5th SP WAR projection (McCarthy + Misc.) increased to 1.5.
I also increased everyone's bullpen WAR by one because I think I was under counting it before.
Frankly, my projections seem to be much more optimistic for Oakland, Seattle and Anaheim than any of PECOTA, CHONE, or CAIRO. Everyone seems to agree that Texas is a mid-80s win team though. I may be off, but I am not sure where. I have done these from scratch three times now and always end up in the same general spot.
140 comments | 2 recs |
The '09-'10 Offseason and Player Development
Remember the Kirby Arnold article from the other day where he was talking about the training camp the M's are running for their minor leaguers right now?
Well, I finally got around to writing about it, after figuring out how best to frame it.
(toot toot)
3 days ago
JY
27 comments
1 recs
Bedard, Mariners Have Agreement, Pending Physical
by Jeff Sullivan on Feb 5, 2010 3:22 AM PST
in Transactions
203 comments
This one gives you a good opportunity to practice your French, or your Google. Via Marc Brassard, who writes for Le Droit, the only French-language newspaper in Ontario (loosely translated, of course):
If he successfully passes a physical exam today in Arizona, Erik Bedard will be back with the Seattle Mariners in 2010.
...
The lefty pitcher from Navan [Ontario] confirmed he had accepted a one year contract for $ 1.5 million to remain with the club.
...
"I'm really happy it was my first choice but to return to Seattle, he said yesterday as he was en route to Peoria, Arizona.
...
Bedard was not familiar with the details of the contract he will sign, but there are bonuses for each period of 30 days when he finds himself with the Mariners, and others to the number of innings .
So this is pretty sweet news, and further confirmation of the fact that, if someone in the Mariner front office says anything remotely interesting about a possible roster move, the move is pretty much already done.
203 comments | 0 recs |
The Best And Worst Rotations In Mariner History
by Jeff Sullivan on Feb 4, 2010 4:55 PM PST
in The More You Know
49 comments
Inspired by a comment from Goose in the thread below, I decided to take a look at how the Mariner starters have done every year since 1977 against the league-average performance. I used FIP for what should be obvious reasons, and though these numbers aren't park-adjusted, they should be close enough. Safeco and the Kingdome have opposite home run effects, but the end result when you calculate it out isn't a huge change, and I'm not even going to bother trying to figure out how the Kingdome affected strikeouts and walks. This isn't a journal article.
Top Five Unadjusted Mariner Rotations:
1. 1993 (-10.4% from league average FIP)
2. 2000 (-9.4%)
3. 1990 (-9.1%)
4. 2001 (-8.1%)
5. 1995 (-7.2%)
The neat thing here is that we don't have to worry about park adjustments at all, because a Kingdome rotation leads the way anyway and adjusting for park would only broaden the gap. The '93 Mariners gave 88 starts to Randy Johnson, Erik Hanson, and Chris Bosio, all three of whom were great, and they didn't give too many innings to anyone terrible. Adjusting for park would flip #2 and #3, so we can take this chance to recognize the good work of Hanson and Matt Young while avoiding having to say anything about Aaron Sele.
Bottom Five Unadjusted Mariner Rotations:
1. 1977 (+24.6%)
2. 1978 (+16.7%)
3. 2008 (+6.5%)
4. 1980 (+5.6%)
5. 1979 (+4.9%)
The league-average starter FIP in 1977 was 4.14. The best FIP by any regular Mariner starter was Tom House, at 4.55. To expansion! And congratulations to Bill Bavasi on constructing the worst non-expansion era rotation in franchise history. Incredible to think that that happened (A) with Felix Hernandez, (B) after trading for Erik Bedard, and (C) after handing $48m to a free agent.
Park adjustments will replace 1979 with 2005, which, hey, Sele again. Felix was the only guy on that staff with a K/9 over 5.2, and he only threw 85 innings. We have seen some bad pitching.
How does the 2010 Mariner rotation project when compared to other rotations in team history? Well, it's kind of silly to run these numbers now considering the team may still add a starter and we have no idea who's going to get hurt or replaced, but if you go with Felix, Lee, RRS, Snell, Vargas, Olson, and Fister all picking up innings and you use their CHONE-projected FIPs, you end up around -10%. This also uses the CHONE-projected innings for the first five guys and giving the rest to the latter two, along with a 4.59 league FIP (weighted average of the last four years).
Sorry for that unreadable paragraph. Basically, the 2010 Mariners have a chance to showcase the best starting rotation in team history, but in order to do that, they're likely going to need Felix and Lee to combine for 450 innings. Alternatively they could get a breakthrough from Snell or land someone from outside the organization, but then you still have to deal with park adjustments, aaaaaaaand the bottom line is that having the best rotation in team history, when you're competing against 33 other rotations, is hard.
49 comments | 1 recs |
On The Possible Return Of Erik Bedard
by Jeff Sullivan on Feb 4, 2010 11:23 AM PST
in Miscellaneous
291 comments
Update #2: Tell it, Jon Paul Morosi:
Source confirms that Bedard is close to a one-year deal with the Mariners.
-----
Update: Larry LaRue chimes in today, quoting Bedard as saying "When you're a free agent, teams call...Mostly, it's just talk - they want to know where I am, how I'm doing. No one's made a concrete offer." There's a difference between "agreement" and "offer", but anyway, this post is more about the possibility than the rumor itself.
-----
I wasn't going to say anything when this just seemed like conversation fodder at Jim Street's blog, but now we have an interesting follow-up, courtesy of MLBTR:
From Street's newest blog post on Bedard: "I have now heard that the deal is a one-year $1.5 million base salary contract that includes a shipload of incentives." In an email to MLBTR, Street explained that his source said an agreement in principal has been reached, but it's not a done deal given pending tests on Bedard's shoulder.
So, right now, we have one guy telling one guy that there's an agreement in place, and it's all pending a physical examination of one of the most fragile players in baseball. Clearly, there stands an excellent chance that this never goes down. But no matter what you think of Jim Street, his seeming disdain of the blogging phenomenon implies that he'll only discuss what he perceives to be legitimate, which gives this some legs.
Lately I've made no secret of my desire to bring Erik Bedard back in 2010. The Mariners have a clear need in the rotation behind Felix and Lee, and among the arms available, few - if any - have Bedard's talent, or at least the talent Bedard had before undergoing his latest surgery. While he'd be a high-risk/high-reward type of acquisition, the risk wouldn't be financial; it'd be that he may not be able to return and pitch effectively, which is something the M's would already know. It's not like signing Rich Harden, where you know he could get hurt at any time. Bedard's already out of action, and isn't set to come back until June at the earliest. It takes a lot of the guesswork out of the equation. The team would have already built a roster intended to get by without Erik Bedard.
So there's risk. Risk is why Bedard is staring at a small 2010 contract. But the reward is why I find the notion so exciting. Let's assume that Bedard doesn't get back to some approximation of normal until the All Star Break. That would put him in line to collect, I dunno, 12-15 starts down the stretch. If you just take his career numbers, you'd expect him to be worth 1.5-2 wins over that span (Fangraphs WAR, FIP-based), and that's without taking into consideration the small extra benefit he would get from being a lefty in Safeco. That's a solid contribution rivaling any we could get from anyone still readily available.
And then there's the matter of those games potentially being so important. I know people like to say that a win in April is worth as much as a win in September, and in a way, those people are right. But think of this in win expectancy terms. In the end, we know that a run scored in the first inning is worth as much as a run scored in the ninth inning, but within an individual game, the leverage increases if the score is close. It's similar within an individual season. If the race is tight, the later games take on more meaning - especially the later games against your competition. You can think of signing Bedard, then, as giving the M's a potential opportunity to "pinch-pitch" some critical starts.
To say nothing of the possible value of having Bedard healthy in the playoffs.
Erik Bedard is as far from a guarantee to contribute as pretty much any starter in the league. He's still rehabbing from a major operation on his shoulder, and there's no telling exactly how he comes out of this. For all I know, his career could be finished. Presumably, though, the M's would give him a thorough examination before bringing him back, and if he checks out, then that's encouraging. That would put him in line to pick up some potentially significant innings in the second half. He obviously wouldn't be able to throw as many innings as, say, a Jarrod Washburn, but he packs just as much value - if not more - in less than half the time, and we have more than enough bodies to get by for a few months were nobody else to be brought in. And hey, if it gets to be July and Bedard has a setback or whatever, then you can make a trade. He doesn't block you the way another pitcher might.
I'm not sure if this is the way the Mariners are leaning, but if it is, I like it. The last time Erik Bedard was healthy, he ran a 3.19 FIP. The last time Erik Bedard wasn't healthy, he ran a 3.9 FIP anyway. When he's on the mound, Bedard is a good pitcher with the chance to be a great one, and there aren't a lot of guys out there this cheap who pack this much potential impact.
Erik Bedard, everybody. For real.
291 comments | 0 recs |
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